Buy in the next 18 mos or be priced out forever

THIS: "Here is a glimmer of what the future may hold: While overall home prices fell by 7.5% in April over the same period a year earlier, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif., provider of real-estate data and analytics, if you exclude distressed sales, prices were off just 0.5%. So if you are in a market that isn't battered by foreclosures, you may be close to a bottom already."

This is what I keep trying to say about the desirable areas of Florida. There are areas without foreclosures (believe it or not) and they are rising again. The opportunities there are disappearing by the day.

So yes, I've seen real life evidence of what this article is saying.

What about markets where foreclosure sales haven't even really started yet? I know Manhattan has the "co-op force field", but what about the rest of the city?

1. Homeowners in NY with defaulted loans (NOD) have not made a mortgage payment in 21 months on average. Does anyone know *when* the banks will (voluntarily or forced to) actually kick the people out and sell the homes? Who thinks the 21 month number is incorrect?

2. Currently, more than 90 percent of new U.S. mortgages are backed by the government entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Anyone believe this statistic is wrong? Anyone think that percentage should be *much* lower? *When* will it be lowered?

Distressed sales are good.

just read this. fairly interesting (n.b. i recently bought). http://seekingalpha.com/article/273162-new-york-city-home-prices-are-headed-for-collapse

e76: The article's title should be QUEENS prices are headed for collapse.

From the article:

Repossessed Properties on the Market in NYC - May 30

Queens - 232
Brooklyn - 95
Bronx - 76
Staten Island - 75
Manhattan - 27

e76: another article written by another idiot who doesn't understand the difference between queens and manhattan, between single family homes and coops. i think manhattan real estate can go down, sure, but not the way he's suggesting.

Riversider, that's a pretty bold call. What are your qualifications to make it?

The key to future pricing will be in the transition of bank REO inventory. We're no longer seeing an uptick in new delinquencies. What we are seeing is delinquent or bad modifications moving to REO status and getting flushed out. Everyone knows that distressed sales occur at 15-20% market discounts which put a lot of downward pressure on pricing. The mistake some of the bears are making is in thinking we'll be seeing the creation of new distressed properties when that story is largely over and instead not focusing on the flushing of distressed properties or the impact the sales are having.

As far as Manhattan is concerned, we just don't have the foreclosure problem the rest of the country has or Queens has, so Manhattan will not experience any large upward price moves. It also means we don't have the same market pressures Florida or California have.

And what about the lack of demand that was there previously, and different mindset that people now have about their homes as wealth creators?

priceless.

interviewing yourself.

How's the snow up in Columbia County? It's warm here in the city.

The thing RS and the journal miss is that say every factor noted is true... and ignore the counter factors noted...

If things were MISpriced, the return of positive factors doesn't necessarily mean you get those prices back.

This is a common investing mistake... recovery from a bubble does not mean a return to bubble pricing.

now, this is great journalism...

"And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you..."

it is fundamental to most of the article, and they run with an assumption...

Which turns out later to be not quite true...

"Renting is still cheaper than buying in most markets"

Again, back to the original point. If prices are still higher than the fundamentals dictate, the other factors may not matter a whole lot.

"e76: The article's title should be QUEENS prices are headed for collapse.

From the article:

Repossessed Properties on the Market in NYC - May 30

Queens - 232"

Yeah, because 272 houses in a borough with tens of thousands of houses are going to cause prices to collapse... Sure, whatever you say.

Stfu alpo. U do know in Florida, there were 272 foreclosures at some point, right? How's the pt cruiser running?