Manhattan Rents Still Climbing Up

RENTS ARE UP? So why is this not being reflected in the CPI?

It's definitely true. However, I don't expect it to last very long, once the QEII Bubble deflates, as it will be busy doing for the next 3 months.

You are dumb, RS. Rents ARE up per the national (and NY) CPI numbers. Just by very little YOY.

I know I'll be yelled at for posting anecdotes, but here's what Miller Samuel's data says on the topic:

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2011 1 2,269 3,008 4,644 7,485 12,321 3,445
2010 4 2,319 3,069 4,722 7,558 12,941 3,499
2010 3 2,306 3,053 4,414 6,851 9,903 3,460
2010 2 2,268 3,159 4,945 8,024 10,290 3,710
2010 1 2,417 3,094 5,021 8,653 12,197 3,812
2009 4 2,253 3,026 5,228 7,515 12,749 3,789
2009 3 2,252 3,026 5,048 7,603 12,925 3,759
2009 2 2,304 2,874 5,018 8,849 15,430 3,839
2009 1 2,221 3,200 5,375 8,760 15,670 4,142
2008 4 2,294 3,245 5,257 9,378 18,825 3,958
2008 3 2,441 3,344 5,139 8,676 26,172 3,796
2008 2 2,449 3,311 5,250 9,564 16,814 3,806
2008 1 2,388 3,281 5,297 9,287 27,461 3,850
2007 4 2,315 3,303 5,272 7,846 13,527 3,801
2007 3 2,282 3,308 5,122 8,035 12,378 3,757
2007 2 2,257 3,313 4,895 8,016 13,655 3,704
2007 1 2,261 3,276 5,116 8,209 17,183 3,762

Weakness across-the-board, except maybe the low end. Studios up 2.1% from Q1 2009, every other category down.

If you look at the original source report from the O.P. you'll see lots of variability across city regions, doorman vs non-doorman and number of rooms. It's tough to draw conclusions from the cited article. When you see this degree of variability the median doesn't capture the full picture.

inonada ... i have to say, i find these numbers surprising. thank you for sharing. while i'm a huge fan of breaking down statistics and dispelling median or comparable myths, like you Riversider, this data still shocks me, despite any underlying variability.
everything i'm seeing on the ground speaks to significant price increases AND material increases in the quality of inventory brought about by condo-quality lux rental buildings. ... i'm still floored by these numbers.

You will notice that the CPI data, and many of the reports speak of EFFECTIVE rents, inclusive of concessions, and that is what is up in NYC and nationally. The MS data is "asking."

how's broker fee handled?

say you rent a unit for $5,000/mnth for a year...

broker wants 15% commission of yearly ...$5,000 X 12 = $60,000 X .15 = $9,000

..true cost to rent is $5,750/month

but $5,000 is recorded rental price

That data just looks suspect to me. It doesn't pass the smell test. Rents were higher in 2009 and 2010 than 2007?? I can't think of one person that would have accepted a rent increase in 2009. That just doesnt make sense. Rents peaked in Q1 2009 for 2BR? That was the low in the stock market. There must be some data lag, or something.

I-no-fucking-nada says it so, therefore it must be. He's a "master of the universe". Arrogant prick.

how would you characterize yourself?

Great retort columbia.

@jhochle:
I would say the vast majority would. This isn't like swapping to a different hairstylist. They may grumble and stomp your feet, but few people would actually uproot and move if the increase wasn't unbelievably huge.

"That data just looks suspect to me"

"You will notice that the CPI data, and many of the reports speak of EFFECTIVE rents, inclusive of concessions, and that is what is up in NYC and nationally. The MS data is "asking.""

inonada
1 day ago I know I'll be yelled at for posting anecdotes, but here's what Miller Samuel's data says on the topic:

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom All
2011 1 2,269 3,008 4,644 7,485 12,321 3,445
2010 4 2,319 3,069 4,722 7,558 12,941 3,499
2010 3 2,306 3,053 4,414 6,851 9,903 3,460
2010 2 2,268 3,159 4,945 8,024 10,290 3,710
2010 1 2,417 3,094 5,021 8,653 12,197 3,812
2009 4 2,253 3,026 5,228 7,515 12,749 3,789
2009 3 2,252 3,026 5,048 7,603 12,925 3,759
2009 2 2,304 2,874 5,018 8,849 15,430 3,839
2009 1 2,221 3,200 5,375 8,760 15,670 4,142
2008 4 2,294 3,245 5,257 9,378 18,825 3,958
2008 3 2,441 3,344 5,139 8,676 26,172 3,796
2008 2 2,449 3,311 5,250 9,564 16,814 3,806
2008 1 2,388 3,281 5,297 9,287 27,461 3,850
2007 4 2,315 3,303 5,272 7,846 13,527 3,801
2007 3 2,282 3,308 5,122 8,035 12,378 3,757
2007 2 2,257 3,313 4,895 8,016 13,655 3,704
2007 1 2,261 3,276 5,116 8,209 17,183 3,762

Weakness across-the-board, except maybe the low end. Studios up 2.1% from Q1 2009, every other category down.

How many apartments has miller samuel rented in manhattan in the last 36 months?

the statistics do not tell the entire story, but they aren't too far away from the truth. another poster hit it on the head; the market is firm along the lower end but still soft as the rents get higher.

there is still a lot of uneasiness amongst many of the higher-earning new yorkers in regard to whether or not they'll be gainfully employed for the next 12 to 24 months, making them much less anxious to take on larger fixed expenses.

the only variable that has changed is back in 2009, very few people were paying a broker. this year, everyone is trying to get paid!

brokers keep telling me how hot the market is. bull crap. i continue to see the more expensive apt's sit empty as the asking rent continually gets lowered. both landlords and brokers are having illusions of grandeur as they attempt to make up for all of their lost income from 2008 through 2010. but what they haven't realized is our attitudes haven't reverted to 2008 levels, when people more than happy to throw cash around and take on large expenses.

if you're patient, you can get the apartment you want at a fair price to all parties. just throw out a reasonable offer, don't budge and sit tight.