Robert Shiller, another 10-25%

Doesn't apply to Manhattan. Rents are increasing.

More nonsense from the ignorant.

I have never seen the inventory and price chops happening right now in NJ and Westchester. Real estate has crashed all around Manhattan. It is strange Manhattan kept up for so long. Maybe unicorns are living here-who knows

In Manhattan, sales are dead right now and not just because it's seasonal. But rentals are doing very well. Twenty years ago, the sales market was bad. You couldn't give away studios in white brick buildings. My friend thought it was an opportune time to buy. He made a low ball offer and it was accepted. However, the board turned the deal down. They felt it would lower the value of the building. And the seller was stuck with the apartment. He was only allowed to sublet it for 2 years. As this story tells you, yes prices may still come down a bit. But Manhattan is still the top of the pyramid with a different type of housing market compared to the rest of the country.

I am not sure what you are saying. 20 years ago when prices were down a friend of mine made a low offer on a Village coop $220K for 1br and was accepted. Also, why are you saying sales are dead? Isn't inventory low anyway?

20 years ago I stayed in a Village coop 1BR for free while the owner tried to sell. After more than a year, she FINALLY unloaded it for $90K -- and felt like she was robbing the buyers. So of course your friend's offer was accepted. Was it a 1BR full-floor loft with direct Hudson River views?

Pitchfork, according to Urbandigs, here is the inventory in Manhattan:
June 9th, 2010: 7,834
June 9th, 2011: 7,834
Can it be any flatter?

haha no but the building was uppity-anyway now it can sell it for $800k he says

He made a low ball offer and it was accepted. However, the board turned the deal down. They felt it would lower the value of the building.

I wonder how often this happens. Eventually, doesn't the Bd have to give into reality?

Wait till the foreclosures hit. That should be fun. The banks own tons of apartments.

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH it applies to Manhattan.

Later, less intense but, it happens.
The financial industry which has made a remarkable comeback with the help of tons of taxpayer's free money has helped to buoy the market. I'm praying for a QE3. I'll admit that the Manhattan economy is similar to Afghanistan...artificially propped up by external aid. Without that aid how will the bonus babies ever upgrade to Dune Road? Without the aid how will the rest of us eat in the absence of the crumbs?
Oh it's coming, It's going to hurt, it's going to impress on the down side.
Not effect Manhattan??? I'll put it in SE parlance....FLMAzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzO!!!!!!!!!!!

Layoffs are coming to the trading desks of major banks. This will impact prices.

The stock market is correcting (or worse) and this will impact prices.

Foreclosures take longer to get resolved in NY than in many other places (did you see the Minyanville piece on this?) and this will finally impact the market as the foreclosures in Brooklyn and Queens will lower prices.

Yes, Manhattan is an island with limited housing stock but the tsunami of forces will wash up even on its shores.

Expect a bottom sometime in 2014-2016 at least 20% below today's prices.

No QEIII, falco - look at all the wonder that QEII did: you can flood the world with money, but you can't make anybody spend it.

You can, on the other hand, inflate commodity and stock prices to the point of causing yet another bubble, forcing that one to deflate, as well. Which is what we're seeing today.

Pitchfork - I work in the industry. I hear what is happening before it hits the press. That's just a snapshot. Doesn't mean things won't revert in the near future. Your friend was lucky, mine wasn't. My point is that Manhattan is a different housing market. There is also a lot of old money here. We have many buildings where the tenants do not work. The parents pay the rent.

Pitchfork - Also, $220K for the Village in 1991 isn't a low offer. I bought on W. 11th Street off of 5th in 1997 and that was the going rate then.

I don't know tm2mc--investing in manhattan feels pretty scary right now--I don't think coops boards can control pricing if TSHTF.

Steve is a moron. Rents being up (slightly) could very well be the inflated price/rent ratio contracting. All signs point to this, in fact.

Surefire sign that things aren't different: "I work in the industry. Manhattan is a different housing market."

Yup.

Jason - I was being facetious. Rents being up just means that property prices haven't fallen enough yet. But rents are limited by a) incomes; and/or b) how many people you can squeeze into a studio.

Ergo, spikes in rent are not long sustainable.

Maybe rents are up because few are buying and more are renting
we created more jobs to handle the crazy amount of money that was dumped on this town.
those jobs might be as temporary as the stimulus

Steve - I didn't say things are different this time. I said Manhattan is a different housing market. Always has been.

Uhm, Manhattan is not and never has been a "different housing market." Most of Manhattan was, in fact, uninhabitable by civilized people until the early 90's, including the neighborhood where I currently live: my sister lived on 57th & 9th about 20 years ago - the only way you could get caught on those streets at night was dead.

The bubble we are now experiencing started in 1998, after a 15-year slump in housing prices to the point that when I bought my first Manhattan property in 1998 I paid less than the original purchaser of the co-op conversion in 1987. Manhattan has fallen about 25% from the peak prices, and now that QE-Stupid has ended, and the free-money party of the last year is over, the slide will recommence.

Or did you not read about Morgan Stanley and Barclay's Capital...?

Ok not an idiot this time.

"Most of Manhattan was, in fact, uninhabitable by civilized people until the early 90's"

Flair for the dramatic?

Nope - I was born in the city, remember it well.

I was born in Manhattan also. The housing situation changed drastically with the co-op conversions of the 80's and the many new condo building in the 90's. Even during the height of the bubble, co-op boards would turn people down with questionable finances regardless if they had a guaranteed bank loan. lots of deep pockets in Manhattan. Not saying prices will not go down, but don't expect to buy a one bedroom in a doorman building for $150K.

pitchfork, can you tell us more about this comment? Do you have examples?

"I have never seen the inventory and price chops happening right now in NJ and Westchester. Real estate has crashed all around Manhattan."

I am following closely those markets for three years now. The previous two summers in the costliest suburbs such as scarsdale, NY or millburn, NJ there would be a five or six houses remaining under a million -everything else was picked up at ask in spring. Now there are dozens of them siting-just run a search in mls. The situation is worse in other towns.

ptichfork you speaka likea italiano friend of mine.. do you own a maserati?

Yep, the burbs are bleeding... I'm looking at some homes in Orienta, Larchmont and things are looking ripe for the picking... things that would've listed for $3MM... like $1MM... fking hilarious

Pitchfork, What are you saying? Can you elaborate more? How about the Great Neck or Manhasset area in LI?

67street, Is Larchmont that weak? Do you have specific examples?

Do you think there are more downside to go in the wealth suburb neighborhoods? Manhattan seem to be holding up well....

I am not following closely LI but things are not looking good from the listings I get. Unfortunately, it is not a good time to make a move for two reasons. One if Manhattan falls then everything falls further. Second, it costs much more to maintain a house in the suburbs than before so a higher discount is warranted. Third, much wealth picks the city over the suburbs lately plus there are less of them (older+fewer).
So more downside.

w67th, si italiano sei bravo(a)

I have to agree with Pitchfork. In general, Westchester prices are back to where they were in 2003 (not inflation adjusted!). I have several friends who can't sell their homes. I checked on Zillow, for what it's worth, and that does appear to be the case.

So is Manhattan RE getting weaker or stronger?

What about Nj waterfront across from midtown I have been following that area and prices are down 25% from peak but I also noticed that units right on the water close to ferry are selling and prices seem to have stabalized

Anyone knows about the Nassau area? It seems much weaker too.

Don't know if it's my imagination, but I seem to be seeing an uptick in empty store fronts in Chelsea.

3fork, graci.

BTW, there are 2,199 homes for sale in Westchester below $3MM.... and let me tell you when the last I looked in 2006..... it was like 500 and most were gone in days......

It's a new world.... I would literally take 20 homes and offer 1/2 off... the first that accepts gets my money......
http://realestate.nytimes.com/sales/detail/2918-3016482/170-Forest-Ave-RYE-NY-10580

At $2.995MM, started at $3.7MM in 5-10.... In the dead of winter.. this douche'll take $1.5MM..... if he don't his neighbor will......

ALL FKING BANKERS... scared shitless... headcuts and bonus cuts cometh.... no much longer now till a $1MM 6 bdrm manse in westchester gets the hangers on in NYC to capitulate... .FLMAOZzzzzzzz

BTW, theres' room for pool and a yacht club that recirprocates with mine... :) Bravo.... to all the strategic renters... your day comes sooner than anticipated.... sorry about the delay from Bernie and that tool Geitner... OBTW.. his home in westchester is still for sale... and not getting more expensive...

FLMAOZ

Chelsea moved north, to Hells Kitchen.

My views are known, albeit more quiet lately. It seems to me that activity and rents in Manhattan have increased/risen, but prices to purchase are flat at the lowest levels. Our friends are buying a lux condo in that new waterfront area of Tribeca/Battery Park City for 1100 a foot. On the other side of the world, a work colleague was just rejected on a refi due to low appraisal in Fairfield, CT. He wasn't trying to take money out either. Personally, we are probably off to CT this time next year. In other words, things can wratchet down slowly, and I think Manhattan rents even if they can maintain this rise will not lend much support to Manhattan values because to the extent economic strength allows the Fed to withdraw stimulus, rising rates will offset value gains from higher rents...and will gradually get us back to more sane rent/buy math here in Manhattan.

PS they are paying less than 15x rent for this lux condo....cap rate north of 6%. Unit details on request. Its on North End Avenue (I think thats the street).

hi rhino, are you guys expecting? or is mrs. rhino just coming around to the idea?

rhino - what are you seeing the Fairfield CT market? I'm having a tough time getting a read on our suburban target in NJ. when something newly renovated comes on, at a good price, it gets like 5+ offers in a week and sells over ask. when something middle of the road comes on (say 15-20yrs since reno), it sits for several months, a couple price cuts, then sells. teardowns go quickly by spec builders, and then the finished product sells immediately. overall, prices down 20-25% from peak.
we'll be selling our 2/2 UES place, down about 13% from the peak, for comparison.

We are not expecting, but a second child is in the plan. We spent a month in Rowayton getting to know Darien & Rowayton. We now agree that in the under $2mm market, the house and lifestyle up there is preferable to us all things considered.

Printer where we are looking in Darien nice things also go quickly...but in my view prices are not yet rising. You are simply seeing the data skewed to the higher quality product that if priced reasonably is moving quickly.

Put it this way, we have been dabbling/looking in the $1.2mm range + or - $200k and the things we see keep getting better...and this is all since the market supposedly bottomed and started rising.

printer do you mind saying where you're looking? because that's not really what i'm seeing at all. and i don't know if you are basing this on data on record, as you boys have the tendency to do, whereas i talk to people and gossip. a LOT of people are just barely hanging on, a LOT of people have stopped paying all together, but nothing is happening. we're seeing actual on the record foreclosures in short hills, printer. in my completely civilian un scientific opinion, now is the time to watch carefully and get out there and talk to people! send your wife. or i don't know, start strategecally dropping off your nanny at the playgrounds in various towns and bribe her to make friends with other nannies and get the lowdown.

Upper Fairfield - Newtown, CT - lots of inventory, prices down, many sellers keen to negotiate BUT must have financing locked up. Many stories of "done deals" undone by inability to obtain financing.

How about the Nassau area?

Scarsdale is down about 20+ percent. The RE taxes are expensive. The annual tax increase makes it less affortable for many and puts alot of pressure on housing price. 25k-30k in RE taxes for a 1m house which is ridiculous Therefore, I can't see housing prices increase over the next few years. In general, income is lower for most over and prices of goods are more expensive over the past three years. I don't know how people survive unless you are uber rich which is a lot of the people on this site.

the uber rich just go and buy whatever they want. the problem a lot of people on this site have is they are a little bit rich and need to pay attention if they don't want to become uber middle class.

lucillebluth - i'm looking in that area, but the less expensive towns like springfield and livingston. i'm not seeing an uptick in foreclosures at all. the price movement I'm talking about it isn't from aggregate data - it is from following specific houses. and i'm not seeing prices rise overall, though perhaps, as Rhino said, the aggregate data would show that b/c nicer (meaning the recently renovated) homes are what is selling.
we're in no particular rush, so at this point it is mostly data gathering for us. next step would be to on appointments with a contractor we trust to get a good feel for how much renovations cost. it seems to me that there is much better value in buying fixer uppers and doing the reno's than buying a place already reno'd. and we enjoy doing that.

yeah, i was too in the past. livingston, some parts of caldwell (the area right above grover cleveland park is really nice, though the town is decidedly middle class), some parts of verona. my budget hasn't changed, but now i'm holding out for essex fells or short hills. or something of that nature if and when i find it. really. but our situation is unique in that we would buy with cash and a large chunk of our income does not come from salary. we're basically middle class, just were lucky to have been born to the right parents.

i some girlfriends living in springfield i don't think they like the schools.

"buying fixer uppers and doing the reno's than buying a place already reno'd. and we enjoy doing that."

but then why would you look in livingston? there are so many towns with really great stock of beautiful old houses.

Lucillebluth, are you familar with Great Neck/Manhasset/Rosalyn area?

i know the areas somewhat, but i don't follow the real estate there because long island was never an option for us for many reasons. there are people her from li. make them admit it, and make them help you.

Thanks... Are there anyone from Long Island that can provide me with some color on the RE market there?

I looked at short hills late last year. What are your opinions on this area? Have the prices dropped?

In NYC, it takes a looonng time to go from not being able to pay the monthly housing nut to a forced sale, either on the market, foreclosure, short sale, whatever. As in 2 years +. By the time something comes on the market, it becomes almost impossible for a regular "retail" buyer to purchase. I'm curious if the burb foreclosures/short sales end up with end users or flipper/developers.

but our situation is unique in that we would buy with cash and a large chunk of our income does not come from salary. we're basically middle class, just were lucky to have been born to the right parents.

cash buyer <> middle class.

i should have said our salary is middle class. left to our own devices, we would be middle class. but we were lucky in that at some point someone cared about making money, and we are the parasites living off of that and have the luxury being science geeks and unemployed designers/housewives.

10023, i should have also said that flipper and builders are buying a lot, so that part of printer's post i do not disagree with. but that's not "real" buyers. at least i don't think so. when a real family buys that house, then i think it counts. this is just more speculation.

ok, i need to learn to formulate a thought and then post. builders and flippers base their actions on numbers and data. i honestly don't think they themselves understand the market. and that's my expert housewife opinion.

lucille- livingston to be near friends and family. good schools. and i can move my work to the 'burbs so I won't be commuting to the city on a daily basis.

Salaries of what, $50k? Real middle class is one salary of $50-60k, I think.

"at some point someone cared about making money" A trust/inheritance?

Lucille do you have any opinion on West New York Weehawken NJ waterfront etc. there are some nice townhomes still rather pricy but I know several families that have moved there recently seems like a good option especially if working in the city and taking ferry but Im wondering if prices have bottomed there or not since I notice more people buying

rhino, i don't think i want to elaborate too much on the second part. but fine, we're more like upper middle class in terms of salary alone. and i have no salary. when i did it was around what you describe, but my goal then was to get to know the industry and the different routes people, and particularly women with families, can take, the different pockets of my industry, etc. i freelanced a lot, made a lot of contacts, but it was really a conscious years long fact finding mission. when my kids are comfortably in school i will go back to work and really get into my, ahem, career, i will one day top out around 200K and hopefully be able to stay there, but who knows, creative people are flaky.

the other money gives me ulcers and heart palpitations because i didn't earn it and couldn't possibly earn
it, and if i lose it, i'll be poor. poor and ashamed. ok!

buyer11, i checked out jc waterfront a few years ago and the townhouses in west new york with the pf changs, it was really dead and its entire thing is being across the water from manhattan, not much of a local scene. back then i actually preferred jc inland because it's a real town with people and businesses, but it's on the rough side. there's that really good big vietnamese restaurant there, a lot of great food in general because those people actually live in that area. can't tell you anything about prices, but i would think they follow the same pattern as outer boroughs new developments catering to manhattan commuters.

RE_PRO, in 2007 there was not.one.single.house in short hills under 1 million. take it from there.

printer
about 5 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse lucille- livingston to be near friends and family.

it's funny you say that because that's definately very common and has been noted on other boards and just in conversation. people who grow up in livingston very often end up moving back and raising their own kids there. after living in manhattan/hoboken for a while. it's a great town and they are always making improvements, you can see the changes even from a year ago.

also, contrary to common misconceptions they just can't shake, it's a pretty diverse town.

and just one last thing

http://www.trulia.com/for_sale/Short_Hills,NJ/SINGLE-FAMILY_HOME_type/#sold/Short_Hills,NJ/SINGLE-FAMILY_HOME_type/date;d_sort/fs:1,s:1_pt/

what are the chances at least a good portion of these were potential manhattan buyers? i think we can all agree that those chances are frighteningly good.

livingston nj is famous as the home of myron bolitar.

I love lucille's efforts to prove that the trust fund that she can't help but mention really doesn't do anything to elevate her above her humble middle-class status which also involved private schools and trust funds and the ability to pay all cash for a home.

That was a run on sentence. Can you please restate?

no talk to crazy lady. crazy lady bad. and her little dog, too.

is lucille just another rich trust fund rich bitch?

or is lucille actually hfscomm1 pretending to be just another rich trust fund bitch?

hate if you want to hate
if it keeps you safe
if it makes you brave

please don't make me talk to you again, it's very unpleasant

i thought you were a proud rich bitch.

how could i possibly make you take to me?

lucilleisarichbitch.

but if i already have *my* funds, doesn't tha make YOUR wife the fund cocksucker? you did pay for her md, right?

so if you had to guess, how long do you still have with her before she can, with a clear concsience, dump you and trade up to someone less embarassing?

How many lap dances do you have to do to get the 200k?

oh. this is why respectable people never talk about money, and i should have never done it. because we are usually surrounded by animals.

8000 lap dances.

FLMAOZzzzzzz... a wife is not a leveraged asset. It was a gift and she is free to leave me as she pleases. I'm sure you squeezed out two quick ones to lock in the trust fund boy... and NOW, you are fking wondering WHO did the locking?

CC, thatz $25/lap dance.... more like

Actually more...she's gotta pay the house.

But her hubby paid it off, no? Oh... the siding needs new paint and gotta pay the $30K/yr in taxes..... shoulda rented and been able to afford NYC in 5 yrs plus the Short Hills home would've been bought on even a $100K lapdance income.....

But unlike you masterfully timed seller of NYC RE..... most lemmings haven't a clue. I believe you could not have timed it better ColumbiaCounty.... you are the master timer. You ever look at new listings in the old bldg for shits and giggles? :)

wow you guys were really waiting for this huh? knock yourselves out. but she isn't really free to leave you is she? howlong has she worked as a doctor before she admited she doesn't really like it and wants to be stay at home mom and what was it? a re broker? she can't leave you because then she'll have to give up the life to which YOU elevated her. if we take that thought to its natural conclusion, it won't reflect very well on the mrs i'm afraid. but please feel free to continue. i can't comment on lapdance incomes, but you guys sound very well informed. and the gals who do it are doing honest work, good for them. unlike your "wife" who got you to pay for her md, which she no longer really plans to use, and let's face it, you are a pretty disgusting piece of trash. the people you long to accept you nod politely, but give eachother those quick knowing glances (surely you've seen them). and you know. of course you know. and what kind of a woman would seriously stay married to you? she's sharp enough to make it through medical school, i'll give her that. but the lapdance girls are quite sharp, too. please don'e make me school your striving bitchass again. im trying to be a nicer person.

Wow.

yes wow. i encourage you both to not give me cause to hurt your feelings any further and f*ck off.

Oh go ahead. Hurt my feelings.

But first ...one more post in one of your other names.

Hi columbiacounty

ok, NOW i have to object to you taking credit. you couldn't have said that. you're not a bitchy girl!

columbiacounty, are you one of the "thousands of people who touched [w67thstreet's] wife"? as our ape friend posted on streeteasy? Or you are not capable?

Truth
4 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse

It's Wed. night June 15, 2011. 9:30pm.
Just for the record.

Dang... don't touch that third nerve. Kinda sensitive.

oh right! thousands HAVE touched his poor wife haven't they. is that why he knows so much about strippers and hookers?

I really don't know lucille. I only know of the thousands touching his wife because he specifically stated it here. I was kind of surprised about that fact and about him admitting it.

Oh shit. Here it goes again. Chatting with itself.

you may be good at counting and math and doing tricks with money and sh*t, and you're a funny guy, i'll give you that. but really, don't fuck with me. certainly not like that for no reason. mmmkay?