Outbid

I think it's extremely rare for one buyer to snap up all three apartments you've bid on. Think he'll have deep enough pockets for a fourth?

Haha, Matt. Unicorn - what neighborhood? I'm seeing this kind of thing on the UWS.

. Three different buildings . Upper Westside and Midtown West. a large lack of desirable inventory to pick from and a lot of wealthy buyers/investors I guess.

That's the difficulty of living in New York.

There's always someone richer, smarter, and prettier than you.

:(

Make sure it's not your wife outbidding you. On a serious note, what price range are you looking at? Condos? In the last 3 years the number of 2-bedroom condominiums under 1.3 mil ( UWS/Lincoln Square ) has been consistently very low ( under 30 ). Anything decent that comes up in the range gets swept off the market.

I saw it in Chelsea less than a month ago. It was also a two bedroom, a nice one at that.

But there's also someone poorer, dumber and uglier too...

On a more serious note, what price range are you looking at? The two+ bedroom market seems to have strengthened considerably lately.

Up to 1,600,000

we have been outbid by an all cash buyer, even though our offer was way higher, and we have no problem getting finance.

Consider yourself lucky. You'll save yourself a lot of money in the end.

"we have been outbid by an all cash buyer, even though our offer was way higher, and we have no problem getting finance. "

How can you be outbid if your offer was higher?

I think you mean, your offer was not accepted.

its the chinese!

gcondo, in some states "multiple offer" situations result in a call for "best and highest" offer, the implication being that the highest offer is not necessarily best. So outbid.

I stand corrected. Our offer was not accepted. An all cash offer for less $$ was.

I disagree alanhart! "outbid" implies someone bid higher than you.

but nonetheless, the potential buyer did lot look as good on paper as the all cash buyer(s). I wish I had the problem of multiple bids on my unit.

same exact thing on Midtown West...

was forced to either go to UWS or west of 10th ave (no thanks)

This seems to be a bigger issue now maybe due to low inventory of desirable two bedrooms making bigger competition and a huge influx of international cash buyers. Sellers seem to almost always take a cash offer even if its lower. Its easier and they dont have to wait for you to get a loan.

Marco_m - actually we were just underbid but lost anyway by an all cash Chinese buyer... Lost another property 3 months ago to an all cash buyer as well. Waiting to see what it closes at to see how much higher they came in.

The stock market isn't helping non-cash buyers as we are seeing a lot of domestic buyers who have done well in equities who have converted to cash.

The principal problem, though, seems to be the low inventory situation. We had multiple bids on the last place we sold in Chelsea, partly because many buyers who were doing "the circuit" indicated that they only half-a-dozen other properties to look at instead of a dozen.

Unicorn, you might consider making your next bid on a property a fast and high one, with a quick expiration, and see how that works.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

A friend made an all cash offer on a unit which was rejected with a slightly (less than 10%) higher offer (not all cash) was accepted

Also, schools might be a factor right now. this year was fairly brutal for many private school applicants. I'm definitely seeing more strength in certain 2+ bedroom markets.

I heard that middle school private apps went okay.

I was talking about k

Bullshitzzzzz.....wherez w67th? How can thiz be when pricezzzz are suppozzzzed to be at 500 per foot? Inonada? Aboutready?

Rents sky high. Bidding wars on the sales side. Where is that motherfucking double dip the bears called for? HUH?

front_porch, thank you for advice. How do you feel about seller insisting on no mortgage contingency presently?

Market being crazy is certainly true and it will show up in the streeteasy numbers in June when the closing for March/April bids take place. However, given the tougher economic situation in the last two weeks, I do not think bidding wars will persist. I would only bid what you think is appropriate (In my view market is at early 2006 levels (15% below the peak) and certain location such as Greenwich Village just 5-10% below the peak) and not get carried away.

Some friends were just going through this in Brooklyn, too -- outbid on several 2-3 bedrooms in a row. All went into contract above ask, which in some cases was above-peak -- nuts. It's an inventory situation here, too.

there's really only crap on the market. i made some offers (foolishly, in retrospect) on mediocre properties but ended up closing for less than I had budgeted on a place larger than I'd expected, the trade off was the neighborhood. keep looking - once in a while the good ones pop up.

if you can't find anything you like to buy, why don't you find something you like to rent? why is everyone making all these tradeoffs and admitting to a willingness to spend beyond their initial budget for the privilige of owning? isn't it more important to like your home and live with your budget? not being obnoxious, but really trying to understand. what unique design ideas and needs do you guys have that cannot be found in a rental of your price point?

Unicorn, it depends on the seller.

I just pitched an estate sale, and my feeling is that the heirs are in the position to wait for their money, so a higher non-cash bid probably makes sense for them. (I'm not minimizing the risks, just saying they can probably be compensated for them).

But for a seller trying to trade up, being biased in favor of cash makes sense for them. If you are encountering sellers who don't want to grant a financing contingency, those are probably just not the properties for you; I'd move on.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

It is an inventory story, certainly not the fact that the macro economic picture is all bubbly. I have participated in several best and final situations over the last 4-6 weeks. My advise is to stay the course and be patient, it's paid off for some of my clients.

What you can't defend against are the buyers willing to pay a premium to a rational market price. However, if you are emotionally attached to a property; don't let 2-5% stand in the way of a home that will give you great emotional satisfaction over the next 7-10 years .

What I have seen over the last weeks though are properties that got a little heated with the bidding and possible buyer(bidder?) remorse as they come back on a week later. I have gotten a few calls from brokers wondering if my people were still interested. In at least one case we went back and my client was glad the first bid was not accepted (even a stalwart real estate quant got caught up in the "auction" mentality of a best and final.

Everyone's situation is unique, I just don't feel there is any rush to buy something you don't love. Buying is about checking off most of the wants on your list. If you can't find the (near) perfect home, then renting is a fine option for a place that's less than perfect.

Hey Nada! What do you think is the mid to long term picture for interest rates and inflation; in particular, inflation's effect on NYC real estate. What camp are you in?

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

"advice"

God my spelling!! I will just apologize and leave it at that...rushing out the door.

bear? what's happening here? why so silent? where is all the "evidence" you folks love to through out? no talk of greece?

w67? nada?

Bears?

renting is not an option for us. There is no stabilization anymore and they have recently gone up quite a bit . Rents can be raised every year, we dont want to keep moving. we have a small child.we were just outbid again on UWS by another all cash buyer even though we bid asking from the beginning and waived the contingency we were obviously used by selling broker to raise the cash buyers bid to asking.there are an unusual amount of undesirable two bedrooms out there for some reason, maybe people are staying put more, so when this happens time and again its particularly very frustrating. I dont think the summer is going to get any better.can do nothing but hope it opens up.

Try West Harlem. Seriously. There is some really nice inventory there as well, unfortunately you will still encounter bidding wars on 2-3 bedrooms.

Unicorn, we dealt with exactly the same experience for almost 18 months and finally closed in April. We ended up compromising slightly on neighborhood and lay-out (but got a much nicer building and finishes in return) and beat out an all-cash buyer because we were ready to move quickly, upped our offer right away to our max number (pre-determined, not an emotional decision), compromised on the financing contingency (went to 20 days) and had a complete package ready to go. Our number was enough above the all-cash that by the time they turned around and countered we were already in contract. The irony, a larger, more expensive apartment was for sale on our same floor that they ended up buying instead, and I hear they are kicking themselves because they paid for more than what they need.

It was all about timing, and our reasons for purchasing are exactly the same as yours.

How long have you been seriously looking?

unicorn, still not following. the possibility of having to move once a year is ruling out the option of renting for you? though you are ready to (1)waive the mortgage contingency, which frankly even a newbie would know is a bad idea and (2)are totally ok with being manipulated and used.....for the privilige of paying a lot more than your alternate rent, even after the increase?

NYC,Looking for a year. I did all that you did to get the apt . Many people that are all cash will match you even if you go over asking and dangling a 1.5 million check is hard to beat.I am ready to move quickly and have a great package.Next time what about not using a buyers broker so sellers broker would get full commission. I am looking for a condo.

>Rents can be raised every year, we dont want to keep moving.<

Common charges/tax/maintenance goes up each year as well.

I think contacting sellers or their brokers directly early as things come on the market is a good strategy. As a seller, I can say I think that would be helpful. I would think all cash buyers are looking more at condos, is that correct? Would looking at co-ops help Unicorn in this regard?

"Common charges/tax/maintenance goes up each year as well."

The amount of any potential increase on what's normally just a fraction of your total monthly housing outlay cannot be compared to a guaranteed annual increase on the whole nut.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/595609-coop-215-west-75th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Even this one looks like it was bid up to $780,365. An increase of 7.6%. I can understand the large apartments with lack of good inventory coupled with cash buyers, but this price point? It was a sponosr sale, so that can be the issue here. Gone will be the days of "let's go look at it in a few weeks when they drop the price". That notion seems quaint at this stage of the game.

I've seen the same thing (i.e. cash bids, strong multiple bids for one apt) in my micro-neighborhood. Yes, there are luxury rentals available but rarely in the buildings that one is looking in. People really are paying more than their rent to buy.

I, too, have noticed listings fetching multiple bids resulting in higher sales prices in my own specific sector of interest (namely, UWS prewar 2+ BR with river views).

W67 -- that has to be one of your funnier analogies. perfecto. ;-)

I am a real estate broker. One of my client matched the asking price of a large 1 bdrm but someone came in HIGHER than the asking price.

Seems like if a solid unit is priced right, it will go FAST. Don't go by the general news that the real estate is not strong...that does not apply to NYC!

And yes, there are lot of CASH buyers coming to pick up NYC "discount" inventories.

"Ppl look stupidest bf they come"

methinks you need to trade-up your wifey

@w81. Coming after all the shit I throw at ya.... We cool. Chest thump. Come on you call that a chest thump? That was like that woods caddy muffed high five......

To the wanderer brokewhore. I may look a fktard, but My wife always makes me a better man. Picture the prettiest 40 yo mom who runs the nyc marathon.... Then throw in the fact she is the hottest md from her ivy league md program, which is actually known for having hotties. And she gets really quiet and with just a hint of a smile......

Btw this week we celebrated our 14th and I ain't tweeting my pubs to some 21 hookers. Flmaozzzz

Hallmark of a lemming, the decrease in loan limits => our last chance!!!!!!! Buy buy buy. But then again $7k tax credi was too sweet a lemmingz juice. Oh Lordy, I love this Fking disaster. I love laughing at all the fools. It makes me smile every month when I cut the rent chk. Flm

Your response is equal to no response. The MARKET sets the tone, not fuckheads like you.

I'm no broker poor little rich boy. How many people you watch coming? I figured your wife was one of them. If you were talking about yourself they why use ppl....

Really, you don't have to act so dumb and aggressive all the time.

So previously w67thstreet told us that "thousands of people touched [his] wife," and now we know what her face looks like when she orgasms. Hey apt23, are you getting jealous that w67thstreet has rejected going in your backdoor? http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-please-come-thru-the-backdoor

He does have to be that dumb and aggressive all the time. He's got nothing else. Clearly been wrong for ages regarding the market, so I guess he's got to cling to what he's got.

how are you related to jim_hones11?

try changing neighborhoods. we looked all over for 2 years back in 2003-2005 when competition was fierce and ended up moving to williamsburg which we hadn't considered initially. now here 4 1/2 years and love it. kid happily in public, and we are staying now for the long run. not telling you to move to williasmburg, just saying there's options besides the UWS.

Patience. With the current situation in the financial market, the bidding wars will soon be over. Also, if you really like a place bid whatever is the maximum you would be willing to pay. Interesting story - we were outbid for two places where our bid was above ask. Both places came back to us and we did not take them! Do not get caught up in the heat of the moment. We just found a nice place at good price in prime area after multiple failed bids. Renting is not so bad if you have not found the right place.

Things that spawn aren't related.

So what was it you got for that?

Just general fuckfaceness.

question for those who were outbid:
was the accepted bid a bubble price? Or, was the accepted bid below bubble price? Due to lack of decent inventory, are buyers bidding up prices, so that prices are becoming bubbly again?

"Hey Nada! What do you think is the mid to long term picture for interest rates and inflation; in particular, inflation's effect on NYC real estate. What camp are you in?"

I'm in the camp that markets usually give good expected values, and that a bunch of knuckleheads on a forum yapping at the mouth (yours truly included) give nowhere as good a picture as millions of knuckleheads buying and selling billions a day.

The treasury market, with TIPS, gives the whole of what you asked. Inflation is priced at 2% 5-years out, up to 2.7% 30-years out. Some of this is risk premium (i.e., you should get paid for protecting against unexpected inflation because unexpected deflation is perceived as less of a risk). So subtract a little, like 0.5%.

On treasury rates, 5-year treasury rates are at 1.5% right now and 10-year rates are at 2.9%. This means that the market will trade you a 5-year treasury 5 years from now at 4.5% approximately. Again, some of this is risk premium, so somewhere around 4%. If you do a 10-year against a 20-year, you'll see that although a 10-year currently yields 2.9%, the market is putting a 10-year treasury 10 years out at around 5%.

Interpreting all this, the Fed has been successful in stoking inflation through its extraordinary measures of sub-inflationary short-term rates. This is expected to come to an end in the next 5 years or so, after which we'll be looking at 2% inflation. The market will require another 2% of juice for 5-year periods and another 3% of juice for 10-year periods.

At this baseline, we are looking at a 2% increase in mortgage rates. Obviously, this will make the cost of owning NYC RE 20-30% more expensive. What it does to price, who knows: I know better than to guess at the whims of the herd. But it is unlikely to be a positive.

We are in an era of cheap money. Unlike many others, I believe the actions of collective individuals have a much larger effect than any Washington or Wall Street cabal. These days more than typical, people park their money in cash. They tend to buy bonds rather than stocks. They tend to pay down their mortgage rather than buy an investment home. All these actions have worked to keep rates low as they either are exactly or act effectively as decreasing bond yields. Things will eventually shift, and forwards in the bond market give a view as to the expected path of that shift.

You don't seem to be worried about "hyper-inflation" kicking in, like the faber's of the world. If things really head into warp drive, won't my 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.65% look pretty good as prices "inflate" exponentially?

I also thought that rising rates would be a big negative for NYC real estate. But a number of clients I am working with seem to think inflation will trump higher rates.

How similar is where we are today with the 70's? But that said how different are things today and can we make a useful correlation with that time period?

for inflation to take hold there have to be wage increases along with price increases. this foolishness about prices continuing to rise without wages going up is silly. people will simply stop buying because they don't have the money. when they stop buying prices will go down.

think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

>think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

Most of us live in New York City, not in Columbia County

Dwell: good question. In the niche market I'm looking at (though not actively bidding or anything), prices are still below the height of the market (as far as comps can be found). If I look closer at the buyer profile on a case-by-case basis, the buyers have deeper pockets. Lower prices than peak, wealthier buyers than before.

columbiacounty
about 6 hours ago for inflation to take hold there have to be wage increases along with price increases. this foolishness about prices continuing to rise without wages going up is silly. people will simply stop buying because they don't have the money. when they stop buying prices will go down.

think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

so in other words, despite three years of similar claims, what you expect to happen still just hasn't happened yet?

Keith, if hyper-inflation kicks in the all then all those who have fixed debt win. The win comes from the debt, not the home. If the home's price is out-of-whack, then it will underperform inflation. If you want to put on an inflation trade, there are very simple ways to do it that don't involve overpriced illiquid assets with high transaction costs.

The 70s were a period of high inflation with high future inflation expectations. We are now in a period of low inflation that is being kept there by extraordinary measures, and future expectations are low. How can this be despite all the chatter?

Let's take RS as an example. He runs around crying about his cream cheese, surely this must be inflationary! Put that 12-cents-a-week difference against everything else. Will he put on an outright inflation trade? No. Will he take out debt because it's cheap money? No. In fact, he'll pay down debt. This act is not only trading against deflation, but it is also deflationary: the money disappears unless someone else takes on that debt. Despite every effort by the Fed to say "those who lend short-term money will lose in real terms", he lends short-term money. He never talks about his income going up 10% a year. Inflation is not a one-way street.

I also think people misunderstand the nature of US's debt. First, most of the country's obligations are in real terms, not nominal. Inflating does not solve the problem of giving RS enough money to buy his $10-inflated cream cheese. So, take a large chunk of the "inflate our problems away" solution away. Second, the mass of the country's debt is short-term. You need duration on debt to make the inflation "solution" work. So take away another large chunk. The upside of inflating on the remaining portion is offset by the downsides of inflation on an economy and future real borrowing costs. In a nutshell, the govt has little incentive to inflate, and it is a fiat currency controlled by the govt.

That said, politicians are capable of anything.

I learned something on SE today. Thxs Inonada

Jim turn the other cheek. I'd like to slap that side with my flaccid penis. Don't deny it hater, u want it don't ya.

Ino: I happened to run into a VC the other day that I do not know well. Very successful, known and respected in the financial community but not known to media or general public. I was grateful that I sat next to him at a dinner party in 2006 and he gave me a lecture on the over leveraged economy and told me to get out of the stock market because it would not end well. I didn't get out of the market but I was very cautious and I bailed very early in the downturn due to his warning. But the other day, apropos of nothing, he started in on a diatribe that made marc faber look ebullient. HIs position was basically that this administration was incapable of leading us out of this, it was now too late and that there would be hyper inflation without any doubt and to get rid of all dollar positions. And this normally very calm man was in quite an agitated state. It was really quite alarming.

Doen't your example explain away inflation but isn't it true that with hyper inflation regular rules don't apply. Just like cc's comment that you can't have inflation without wage inflation. I don't think that holds true for hyper inflation throughout history.

What do you do besides fixed debt in case of hyper inflation or a worthless dollar?

i can't picture how this scenario would play out in the united states with no wage inflation. prices shoot up---but interest rates don't? prices shoot up and no one can afford anything? then what?

W67, nothing better? Where is the 500 p/ft pricing you've been barking about for over two years?

Columbiacunty, you can't picture what your toes look like due to your plus 40 inch waist---doesnt mean they aren't there any longer does it?

That means you don't know shit, so keep your fucking mouth shut, better for your health.

Columbiacunty, you can't picture what your toes look like due to your plus 40 inch waist---doesnt mean they aren't there any longer does it?

That means you don't know shit, so keep your fucking mouth shut, better for your health.

cc: I am not really well versed in hyper inflation but I believe it has little to do with the price/value of goods and has everything to do with the collapse of the currency due to lack of financial discipline and the endless printing of money. The man I referred to felt that the US govt will be forced to continue to print money.

>Ino: I happened to run into a VC the other day that

A VC or a hedge fund manager? VC's are pumping money into companies fast and furious right now.

but hyperinflation seems to be the bogeyman that many are afraid of. as i said, i don't see how it would actually play out. how would everyone buy anything? at the same time, i still see deflation as a real (and scary) possibility.

So what does this dude want you to invest in, apt23? Krugerands or gold bullion?

inonada: Thanks for that thorough explanation, hope you're right! Much better than Fabers outcome (:

cc: I think hyperinflation is like a nasty cancer, look at Zimbabwe for a recent event. I don't think they had wage increase's, just price increases. The answer: Keep adding zeros to the currency, they had a $1,000,000 note.

Inflation/hyperinflation are two different animals, we can deal with inflation, the other will destroy us.

apt23: There a number of people who have been good at timing the market. Dan Sullivan has been very helpful in this regard for us. Currently he still we are vastly oversold, I went all cash 2-3 weeks ago after a nice run up, SLV did well, 28% return.

Keith Burkhardt (broker)

SAVE Outbid
85 commentsUnicorn1951
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse I have been outbid for 3 two bedroom apartments in a row by an all cash buyer even though I am bidding close to asking price and have large assets with a bank preapproval . How are things for others out there?

NYCMatt
3 days ago
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report abuse I think it's extremely rare for one buyer to snap up all three apartments you've bid on. Think he'll have deep enough pockets for a fourth?

nyc10023
3 days ago
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report abuse Haha, Matt. Unicorn - what neighborhood? I'm seeing this kind of thing on the UWS.

Unicorn1951
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse . Three different buildings . Upper Westside and Midtown West. a large lack of desirable inventory to pick from and a lot of wealthy buyers/investors I guess.

NYCMatt
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse That's the difficulty of living in New York.

There's always someone richer, smarter, and prettier than you.

:(

ags
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse Make sure it's not your wife outbidding you. On a serious note, what price range are you looking at? Condos? In the last 3 years the number of 2-bedroom condominiums under 1.3 mil ( UWS/Lincoln Square ) has been consistently very low ( under 30 ). Anything decent that comes up in the range gets swept off the market.

Isle_of_Lucy
3 days ago
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report abuse I saw it in Chelsea less than a month ago. It was also a two bedroom, a nice one at that.

bramstar
3 days ago
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report abuse But there's also someone poorer, dumber and uglier too...

bramstar
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse On a more serious note, what price range are you looking at? The two+ bedroom market seems to have strengthened considerably lately.

Unicorn1951
3 days ago
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report abuse Up to 1,600,000

new_to_nyc
3 days ago
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report abuse we have been outbid by an all cash buyer, even though our offer was way higher, and we have no problem getting finance.

stevejhx
3 days ago
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report abuse Consider yourself lucky. You'll save yourself a lot of money in the end.

gcondo
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse "we have been outbid by an all cash buyer, even though our offer was way higher, and we have no problem getting finance. "

How can you be outbid if your offer was higher?

I think you mean, your offer was not accepted.

marco_m
3 days ago
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report abuse its the chinese!

alanhart
3 days ago
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report abuse gcondo, in some states "multiple offer" situations result in a call for "best and highest" offer, the implication being that the highest offer is not necessarily best. So outbid.

new_to_nyc
3 days ago
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report abuse I stand corrected. Our offer was not accepted. An all cash offer for less $$ was.

gcondo
3 days ago
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report abuse I disagree alanhart! "outbid" implies someone bid higher than you.

but nonetheless, the potential buyer did lot look as good on paper as the all cash buyer(s). I wish I had the problem of multiple bids on my unit.

ss400k
3 days ago
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report abuse same exact thing on Midtown West...

was forced to either go to UWS or west of 10th ave (no thanks)

Unicorn1951
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse This seems to be a bigger issue now maybe due to low inventory of desirable two bedrooms making bigger competition and a huge influx of international cash buyers. Sellers seem to almost always take a cash offer even if its lower. Its easier and they dont have to wait for you to get a loan.

lo888
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse Marco_m - actually we were just underbid but lost anyway by an all cash Chinese buyer... Lost another property 3 months ago to an all cash buyer as well. Waiting to see what it closes at to see how much higher they came in.

front_porch
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse The stock market isn't helping non-cash buyers as we are seeing a lot of domestic buyers who have done well in equities who have converted to cash.

The principal problem, though, seems to be the low inventory situation. We had multiple bids on the last place we sold in Chelsea, partly because many buyers who were doing "the circuit" indicated that they only half-a-dozen other properties to look at instead of a dozen.

Unicorn, you might consider making your next bid on a property a fast and high one, with a quick expiration, and see how that works.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

5thGenNYer
3 days ago
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report abuse A friend made an all cash offer on a unit which was rejected with a slightly (less than 10%) higher offer (not all cash) was accepted

aboutready
3 days ago
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report abuse Also, schools might be a factor right now. this year was fairly brutal for many private school applicants. I'm definitely seeing more strength in certain 2+ bedroom markets.

nyc10023
3 days ago
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report abuse I heard that middle school private apps went okay.

aboutready
3 days ago
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report abuse I was talking about k

jim_hones11
3 days ago
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report abuse Bullshitzzzzz.....wherez w67th? How can thiz be when pricezzzz are suppozzzzed to be at 500 per foot? Inonada? Aboutready?

jim_hones11
3 days ago
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report abuse Rents sky high. Bidding wars on the sales side. Where is that motherfucking double dip the bears called for? HUH?

Unicorn1951
3 days ago
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report abuse front_porch, thank you for advice. How do you feel about seller insisting on no mortgage contingency presently?

300_mercer
3 days ago
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report abuse Market being crazy is certainly true and it will show up in the streeteasy numbers in June when the closing for March/April bids take place. However, given the tougher economic situation in the last two weeks, I do not think bidding wars will persist. I would only bid what you think is appropriate (In my view market is at early 2006 levels (15% below the peak) and certain location such as Greenwich Village just 5-10% below the peak) and not get carried away.

Miette
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse Some friends were just going through this in Brooklyn, too -- outbid on several 2-3 bedrooms in a row. All went into contract above ask, which in some cases was above-peak -- nuts. It's an inventory situation here, too.

e76
3 days ago
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report abuse there's really only crap on the market. i made some offers (foolishly, in retrospect) on mediocre properties but ended up closing for less than I had budgeted on a place larger than I'd expected, the trade off was the neighborhood. keep looking - once in a while the good ones pop up.

lucillebluth
2 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse if you can't find anything you like to buy, why don't you find something you like to rent? why is everyone making all these tradeoffs and admitting to a willingness to spend beyond their initial budget for the privilige of owning? isn't it more important to like your home and live with your budget? not being obnoxious, but really trying to understand. what unique design ideas and needs do you guys have that cannot be found in a rental of your price point?

front_porch
2 days ago
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report abuse Unicorn, it depends on the seller.

I just pitched an estate sale, and my feeling is that the heirs are in the position to wait for their money, so a higher non-cash bid probably makes sense for them. (I'm not minimizing the risks, just saying they can probably be compensated for them).

But for a seller trying to trade up, being biased in favor of cash makes sense for them. If you are encountering sellers who don't want to grant a financing contingency, those are probably just not the properties for you; I'd move on.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

KeithB
2 days ago
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report abuse It is an inventory story, certainly not the fact that the macro economic picture is all bubbly. I have participated in several best and final situations over the last 4-6 weeks. My advise is to stay the course and be patient, it's paid off for some of my clients.

What you can't defend against are the buyers willing to pay a premium to a rational market price. However, if you are emotionally attached to a property; don't let 2-5% stand in the way of a home that will give you great emotional satisfaction over the next 7-10 years .

What I have seen over the last weeks though are properties that got a little heated with the bidding and possible buyer(bidder?) remorse as they come back on a week later. I have gotten a few calls from brokers wondering if my people were still interested. In at least one case we went back and my client was glad the first bid was not accepted (even a stalwart real estate quant got caught up in the "auction" mentality of a best and final.

Everyone's situation is unique, I just don't feel there is any rush to buy something you don't love. Buying is about checking off most of the wants on your list. If you can't find the (near) perfect home, then renting is a fine option for a place that's less than perfect.

Hey Nada! What do you think is the mid to long term picture for interest rates and inflation; in particular, inflation's effect on NYC real estate. What camp are you in?

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

KeithB
2 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse "advice"

KeithB
2 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse God my spelling!! I will just apologize and leave it at that...rushing out the door.

jim_hones10
2 days ago
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report abuse bear? what's happening here? why so silent? where is all the "evidence" you folks love to through out? no talk of greece?

w67? nada?

jim_hones11
2 days ago
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report abuse Bears?

Unicorn1951
2 days ago
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report abuse renting is not an option for us. There is no stabilization anymore and they have recently gone up quite a bit . Rents can be raised every year, we dont want to keep moving. we have a small child.we were just outbid again on UWS by another all cash buyer even though we bid asking from the beginning and waived the contingency we were obviously used by selling broker to raise the cash buyers bid to asking.there are an unusual amount of undesirable two bedrooms out there for some reason, maybe people are staying put more, so when this happens time and again its particularly very frustrating. I dont think the summer is going to get any better.can do nothing but hope it opens up.

Shadow
2 days ago
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report abuse Try West Harlem. Seriously. There is some really nice inventory there as well, unfortunately you will still encounter bidding wars on 2-3 bedrooms.

NYC10007
1 day ago
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report abuse Unicorn, we dealt with exactly the same experience for almost 18 months and finally closed in April. We ended up compromising slightly on neighborhood and lay-out (but got a much nicer building and finishes in return) and beat out an all-cash buyer because we were ready to move quickly, upped our offer right away to our max number (pre-determined, not an emotional decision), compromised on the financing contingency (went to 20 days) and had a complete package ready to go. Our number was enough above the all-cash that by the time they turned around and countered we were already in contract. The irony, a larger, more expensive apartment was for sale on our same floor that they ended up buying instead, and I hear they are kicking themselves because they paid for more than what they need.

It was all about timing, and our reasons for purchasing are exactly the same as yours.

How long have you been seriously looking?

lucillebluth
1 day ago
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report abuse unicorn, still not following. the possibility of having to move once a year is ruling out the option of renting for you? though you are ready to (1)waive the mortgage contingency, which frankly even a newbie would know is a bad idea and (2)are totally ok with being manipulated and used.....for the privilige of paying a lot more than your alternate rent, even after the increase?

Unicorn1951
1 day ago
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report abuse NYC,Looking for a year. I did all that you did to get the apt . Many people that are all cash will match you even if you go over asking and dangling a 1.5 million check is hard to beat.I am ready to move quickly and have a great package.Next time what about not using a buyers broker so sellers broker would get full commission. I am looking for a condo.

Squid
1 day ago
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report abuse >Rents can be raised every year, we dont want to keep moving.<

Common charges/tax/maintenance goes up each year as well.

johnnyu77
1 day ago
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report abuse I think contacting sellers or their brokers directly early as things come on the market is a good strategy. As a seller, I can say I think that would be helpful. I would think all cash buyers are looking more at condos, is that correct? Would looking at co-ops help Unicorn in this regard?

NYCMatt
1 day ago
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report abuse "Common charges/tax/maintenance goes up each year as well."

The amount of any potential increase on what's normally just a fraction of your total monthly housing outlay cannot be compared to a guaranteed annual increase on the whole nut.

Bill7284
1 day ago
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report abuse http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/595609-coop-215-west-75th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Even this one looks like it was bid up to $780,365. An increase of 7.6%. I can understand the large apartments with lack of good inventory coupled with cash buyers, but this price point? It was a sponosr sale, so that can be the issue here. Gone will be the days of "let's go look at it in a few weeks when they drop the price". That notion seems quaint at this stage of the game.

nyc10023
1 day ago
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report abuse I've seen the same thing (i.e. cash bids, strong multiple bids for one apt) in my micro-neighborhood. Yes, there are luxury rentals available but rarely in the buildings that one is looking in. People really are paying more than their rent to buy.

bramstar
1 day ago
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report abuse I, too, have noticed listings fetching multiple bids resulting in higher sales prices in my own specific sector of interest (namely, UWS prewar 2+ BR with river views).

West34
1 day ago
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report abuse W67 -- that has to be one of your funnier analogies. perfecto. ;-)

marcoson
1 day ago
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report abuse I am a real estate broker. One of my client matched the asking price of a large 1 bdrm but someone came in HIGHER than the asking price.

Seems like if a solid unit is priced right, it will go FAST. Don't go by the general news that the real estate is not strong...that does not apply to NYC!

And yes, there are lot of CASH buyers coming to pick up NYC "discount" inventories.

wanderer
1 day ago
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report abuse "Ppl look stupidest bf they come"

methinks you need to trade-up your wifey

w67thstreet
1 day ago
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report abuse @w81. Coming after all the shit I throw at ya.... We cool. Chest thump. Come on you call that a chest thump? That was like that woods caddy muffed high five......

To the wanderer brokewhore. I may look a fktard, but My wife always makes me a better man. Picture the prettiest 40 yo mom who runs the nyc marathon.... Then throw in the fact she is the hottest md from her ivy league md program, which is actually known for having hotties. And she gets really quiet and with just a hint of a smile......

Btw this week we celebrated our 14th and I ain't tweeting my pubs to some 21 hookers. Flmaozzzz

Hallmark of a lemming, the decrease in loan limits => our last chance!!!!!!! Buy buy buy. But then again $7k tax credi was too sweet a lemmingz juice. Oh Lordy, I love this Fking disaster. I love laughing at all the fools. It makes me smile every month when I cut the rent chk. Flm

jim_hones11
1 day ago
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report abuse Your response is equal to no response. The MARKET sets the tone, not fuckheads like you.

wanderer
1 day ago
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report abuse I'm no broker poor little rich boy. How many people you watch coming? I figured your wife was one of them. If you were talking about yourself they why use ppl....

Really, you don't have to act so dumb and aggressive all the time.

huntersburg
1 day ago
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report abuse So previously w67thstreet told us that "thousands of people touched [his] wife," and now we know what her face looks like when she orgasms. Hey apt23, are you getting jealous that w67thstreet has rejected going in your backdoor? http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-please-come-thru-the-backdoor

jim_hones10
1 day ago
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report abuse He does have to be that dumb and aggressive all the time. He's got nothing else. Clearly been wrong for ages regarding the market, so I guess he's got to cling to what he's got.

columbiacounty
1 day ago
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report abuse how are you related to jim_hones11?

wisco
1 day ago
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report abuse try changing neighborhoods. we looked all over for 2 years back in 2003-2005 when competition was fierce and ended up moving to williamsburg which we hadn't considered initially. now here 4 1/2 years and love it. kid happily in public, and we are staying now for the long run. not telling you to move to williasmburg, just saying there's options besides the UWS.

300_mercer
1 day ago
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report abuse Patience. With the current situation in the financial market, the bidding wars will soon be over. Also, if you really like a place bid whatever is the maximum you would be willing to pay. Interesting story - we were outbid for two places where our bid was above ask. Both places came back to us and we did not take them! Do not get caught up in the heat of the moment. We just found a nice place at good price in prime area after multiple failed bids. Renting is not so bad if you have not found the right place.

w67thstreet
1 day ago
ignore this person
report abuse Things that spawn aren't related.

w67thstreet
1 day ago
ignore this person
report abuse They don't give out grayness for slapping ppl with a flaccid penis

huntersburg
1 day ago
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report abuse So what was it you got for that?

jim_hones11
1 day ago
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report abuse Just general fuckfaceness.

dwell
1 day ago
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report abuse question for those who were outbid:
was the accepted bid a bubble price? Or, was the accepted bid below bubble price? Due to lack of decent inventory, are buyers bidding up prices, so that prices are becoming bubbly again?

inonada
1 day ago
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report abuse "Hey Nada! What do you think is the mid to long term picture for interest rates and inflation; in particular, inflation's effect on NYC real estate. What camp are you in?"

I'm in the camp that markets usually give good expected values, and that a bunch of knuckleheads on a forum yapping at the mouth (yours truly included) give nowhere as good a picture as millions of knuckleheads buying and selling billions a day.

The treasury market, with TIPS, gives the whole of what you asked. Inflation is priced at 2% 5-years out, up to 2.7% 30-years out. Some of this is risk premium (i.e., you should get paid for protecting against unexpected inflation because unexpected deflation is perceived as less of a risk). So subtract a little, like 0.5%.

On treasury rates, 5-year treasury rates are at 1.5% right now and 10-year rates are at 2.9%. This means that the market will trade you a 5-year treasury 5 years from now at 4.5% approximately. Again, some of this is risk premium, so somewhere around 4%. If you do a 10-year against a 20-year, you'll see that although a 10-year currently yields 2.9%, the market is putting a 10-year treasury 10 years out at around 5%.

Interpreting all this, the Fed has been successful in stoking inflation through its extraordinary measures of sub-inflationary short-term rates. This is expected to come to an end in the next 5 years or so, after which we'll be looking at 2% inflation. The market will require another 2% of juice for 5-year periods and another 3% of juice for 10-year periods.

At this baseline, we are looking at a 2% increase in mortgage rates. Obviously, this will make the cost of owning NYC RE 20-30% more expensive. What it does to price, who knows: I know better than to guess at the whims of the herd. But it is unlikely to be a positive.

We are in an era of cheap money. Unlike many others, I believe the actions of collective individuals have a much larger effect than any Washington or Wall Street cabal. These days more than typical, people park their money in cash. They tend to buy bonds rather than stocks. They tend to pay down their mortgage rather than buy an investment home. All these actions have worked to keep rates low as they either are exactly or act effectively as decreasing bond yields. Things will eventually shift, and forwards in the bond market give a view as to the expected path of that shift.

KeithB
about 24 hours ago
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report abuse You don't seem to be worried about "hyper-inflation" kicking in, like the faber's of the world. If things really head into warp drive, won't my 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.65% look pretty good as prices "inflate" exponentially?

I also thought that rising rates would be a big negative for NYC real estate. But a number of clients I am working with seem to think inflation will trump higher rates.

How similar is where we are today with the 70's? But that said how different are things today and can we make a useful correlation with that time period?

columbiacounty
about 24 hours ago
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report abuse for inflation to take hold there have to be wage increases along with price increases. this foolishness about prices continuing to rise without wages going up is silly. people will simply stop buying because they don't have the money. when they stop buying prices will go down.

think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

huntersburg
about 23 hours ago
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report abuse >think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

Most of us live in New York City, not in Columbia County

nyc10023
about 22 hours ago
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report abuse Dwell: good question. In the niche market I'm looking at (though not actively bidding or anything), prices are still below the height of the market (as far as comps can be found). If I look closer at the buyer profile on a case-by-case basis, the buyers have deeper pockets. Lower prices than peak, wealthier buyers than before.

jim_hones10
about 18 hours ago
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report abuse columbiacounty
about 6 hours ago for inflation to take hold there have to be wage increases along with price increases. this foolishness about prices continuing to rise without wages going up is silly. people will simply stop buying because they don't have the money. when they stop buying prices will go down.

think of the difference between someone dropping a match in the middle of a forest that has been soaked by torrential rain vs. that same act of dropping the match during a drought.

so in other words, despite three years of similar claims, what you expect to happen still just hasn't happened yet?

inonada
about 17 hours ago
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report abuse Keith, if hyper-inflation kicks in the all then all those who have fixed debt win. The win comes from the debt, not the home. If the home's price is out-of-whack, then it will underperform inflation. If you want to put on an inflation trade, there are very simple ways to do it that don't involve overpriced illiquid assets with high transaction costs.

The 70s were a period of high inflation with high future inflation expectations. We are now in a period of low inflation that is being kept there by extraordinary measures, and future expectations are low. How can this be despite all the chatter?

Let's take RS as an example. He runs around crying about his cream cheese, surely this must be inflationary! Put that 12-cents-a-week difference against everything else. Will he put on an outright inflation trade? No. Will he take out debt because it's cheap money? No. In fact, he'll pay down debt. This act is not only trading against deflation, but it is also deflationary: the money disappears unless someone else takes on that debt. Despite every effort by the Fed to say "those who lend short-term money will lose in real terms", he lends short-term money. He never talks about his income going up 10% a year. Inflation is not a one-way street.

I also think people misunderstand the nature of US's debt. First, most of the country's obligations are in real terms, not nominal. Inflating does not solve the problem of giving RS enough money to buy his $10-inflated cream cheese. So, take a large chunk of the "inflate our problems away" solution away. Second, the mass of the country's debt is short-term. You need duration on debt to make the inflation "solution" work. So take away another large chunk. The upside of inflating on the remaining portion is offset by the downsides of inflation on an economy and future real borrowing costs. In a nutshell, the govt has little incentive to inflate, and it is a fiat currency controlled by the govt.

That said, politicians are capable of anything.

w67thstreet
about 17 hours ago
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report abuse I learned something on SE today. Thxs Inonada

w67thstreet
about 17 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Jim turn the other cheek. I'd like to slap that side with my flaccid penis. Don't deny it hater, u want it don't ya.

apt23
about 16 hours ago
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report abuse Ino: I happened to run into a VC the other day that I do not know well. Very successful, known and respected in the financial community but not known to media or general public. I was grateful that I sat next to him at a dinner party in 2006 and he gave me a lecture on the over leveraged economy and told me to get out of the stock market because it would not end well. I didn't get out of the market but I was very cautious and I bailed very early in the downturn due to his warning. But the other day, apropos of nothing, he started in on a diatribe that made marc faber look ebullient. HIs position was basically that this administration was incapable of leading us out of this, it was now too late and that there would be hyper inflation without any doubt and to get rid of all dollar positions. And this normally very calm man was in quite an agitated state. It was really quite alarming.

Doen't your example explain away inflation but isn't it true that with hyper inflation regular rules don't apply. Just like cc's comment that you can't have inflation without wage inflation. I don't think that holds true for hyper inflation throughout history.

What do you do besides fixed debt in case of hyper inflation or a worthless dollar?

columbiacounty
about 15 hours ago
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report abuse i can't picture how this scenario would play out in the united states with no wage inflation. prices shoot up---but interest rates don't? prices shoot up and no one can afford anything? then what?

jim_hones11
about 14 hours ago
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report abuse W67, nothing better? Where is the 500 p/ft pricing you've been barking about for over two years?

jim_hones11
about 14 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Columbiacunty, you can't picture what your toes look like due to your plus 40 inch waist---doesnt mean they aren't there any longer does it?

That means you don't know shit, so keep your fucking mouth shut, better for your health.

jim_hones11
about 14 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Columbiacunty, you can't picture what your toes look like due to your plus 40 inch waist---doesnt mean they aren't there any longer does it?

That means you don't know shit, so keep your fucking mouth shut, better for your health.

apt23
about 14 hours ago
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report abuse cc: I am not really well versed in hyper inflation but I believe it has little to do with the price/value of goods and has everything to do with the collapse of the currency due to lack of financial discipline and the endless printing of money. The man I referred to felt that the US govt will be forced to continue to print money.

huntersburg
about 14 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse You aren't well versed in hyper inflation? Wow, what a novice.

huntersburg
about 14 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse >Ino: I happened to run into a VC the other day that

A VC or a hedge fund manager? VC's are pumping money into companies fast and furious right now.

columbiacounty
about 11 hours ago
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report abuse but hyperinflation seems to be the bogeyman that many are afraid of. as i said, i don't see how it would actually play out. how would everyone buy anything? at the same time, i still see deflation as a real (and scary) possibility.

Note that this bear has no real conviction that either one scenario or the other will play out. He just wants SOMETHING bad to happen. It's akin to being depressed I would think. The insistence that our societal collapse is just around the corner, and taking a measure of enjoyment in "knowing" so (without of course have any idea of the how, when, or why).

Keith: thanks, I will check out Dan Sullivan. I too went mostly cash about a month ago -- except I kept my MLP's and large cap US dividend stocks. My only real risk is that I am hanging onto certain commodities for long term, which is obviously hurting right now. I also got out of silver for a nice profit but I held onto gold. I will not go back in until this Europe/ Greece things settles out for real. Can't see how it can conclude unless they set up a giant Tarp- like plan and who will put up the money for that without risking a revolution by their constituents.

nyc10023: he said singapore dollars (which seem kind of high to me) and canadian dollars. and then, just like a walking disclaimer, he actually said, "this call is only good for the next 60 days". I would have burst out laughing but the whole thing was kind of spooky. I have never bought currencies outright but I think I am going to put on a little protection. But for all I know, 10023, he has had some kind of breakdown and needs his meds adjusted. But i definitely got spooked -- like the angel of doom fell right into my path.

I've been watching the Australian & Cdn dollars - they are commodity currencies, more or less. Which can end with the end of the boom. Also both Aus. & Cdn property markets are way, way bubblicious.

I'm holding on to gold, wondering if I should add.

Lower prices than peak, wealthier buyers than before.

Interesting observation. Thanks nyc10023.