Who is Buying?

How about Greeks and Chinese with money stashed offshore? Just sayin'...

I am working with a lot of international buyers that are tired of their money not earning anything in their banks overseas.

malthus, I don't mean to downplay these very real and significant economic factors, but I think you may be overestimating the average buyer's concerns when looking for a home. People are buying - volumes have been quite high, and urbandigs' pending sales chart shows the same:
http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?t=Market+Trends&s1=Pending+Sales

My gut tells me this is perilously close to an unhealthy pace and we're due for another slowdown, especially with summer officially beginning this week. Greece, Portugal, and China, as well as our own debt issues may very well precipitate that.

"I am working with a lot of international buyers that are tired of their money not earning anything in their banks overseas."

And how does buying them an apartment at 20+ times rent roll help them earn?

Foreign buyers have been skewing the NYC housing market for the last decade. Rich foreigners buy apartments - who else would buy an apartment near Penn Station? - and the not so rich line up outside Abercrombie and Fitch to buy really cheap clothes. Look at the Euro. NYC is Walmart for Europeans.

Ppl that rob a bank, win lotto, or have fake boobs rarely care about the 'future' value of their gawdy trinkets.

Eg. Do you think the porn star who sells his used underwear to riversider for $5k pop cares if his $5mm man dungeon goes down $2mm?

@bjw: These things have obviously been in the news for some time but I think the first 2 were dismissed in the past as not likely and further down the road, respectively. That has pretty well changed in the last 2 weeks so I think urbandigs' info is in the rear view.

That said, I may be overestimating the avg concern. So then one answer would be: people oblivious to or unaffected by the world.

"NYC is Walmart for Europeans." Some Europeans. It used to be for the Spanish and Irish. Not so much any more.

If your looking for buyers, look no further than the Chinese & Asians. These people are crazy rich and they don't care what it is their buying. I should know I deal commercially with them on a daily basis.

Read this:
"A coal baron living in northern China just spent $1.5 million to buy what is considered the world's most expensive dog, a red Tibetan Mastiff. It's hard to know precisely where in that sentence you spurt out your mouthful of coffee: that a dog is worth that much or that there is a millionaire willing to buy one in China.

In any case, the 180-pound 11-month-old red Tibetan Mastiff known as Big Splash, or "Hong Dong" in Mandarin, just earned the title of the world's priciest pooch. The breed can grow to be 285 pounds, and according to the breeder, Big Splash is such a perfect specimen that the eyeball-popping price is justified. It is believed the breed descended from wolves 58,000 years ago.

Big Splash is a kind of cute fellow -- big and bulky, although in most photos he looks like he's having a bad hair day. The breed has become a status symbol in China, replacing cars and expensive bling as a way for the uber-rich to show off their new-found wealth. Red is considered a lucky color in Chinese culture and Tibetan Mastiffs are thought to be holy animals, bringing riches and good health to their owners, which helps explain the country's interest in the dog and the run-up in price. But given the size of most Chinese apartments and the size of these dogs, don't expect to see them bought by the masses; Tibetan Mastiffs are truly only for China's rich.

In time, Big Splash might fetch $15,000 a pop to breed with a female. Nothing like earning his keep."

Their favoite locs are San Franciso, San Jose, New York, Washington.

http://www.luxist.com/2011/03/16/red-tibetan-mastiff-world-most-expensive-dog-1-5-million/

malthus, all fair points. I happen to be of the slightly pessimistic view that many, many people are oblivious to the world. Especially when it concerns foreign economies. It is pretty incredible the lengths some go to to remain willfully ignorant.

"Some Europeans. It used to be for the Spanish and Irish. Not so much any more."

No kidding. My Spanish friends who visited in 06 can't even entertain the thought of a return trip anytime soon. And they live in the north, where things are relatively ok.

Apartment sales in our Lower Fifth Avenue coop have rebounded and have been selling at prices comparable to pre-2008 numbers. The majority of the deals have been all cash from wealthy New Yorkers. Especially with the low inventory in the village, things have gone into contract quickly.

take the advice i gave to printer. bribe your nannies to make friends with other nannies and get the "inside info" on your peers. it's not as pretty as you and your wives think.

and while all factors are important to consider, i'm sure you'll all agree that inside information is what really sets one apart from the herd. and i'm not sure if you guys were aware, but inside information is actually GOSSIP.

Let me get this straight...
Idiot rich Asians are the buyers that are keeping the market up...

This is going to one heck of a big Chinatown.
I dropping everything to learn Mandarin/Japanese/Korean so I can curry favor with the new boss.
If you are what you eat I'm half Asian already.

woof woof

those who shorted China and Greece? moooooooo...

idiots still think money is "lost." how bout a transfer, pal. what's the swift code? lchaim.

Good answer. I hope they picked the right counterparties though.

So now we have the oblivious, the prescient, fleeing Greeks and Chinese with too much money on their hands...

but will the incoming rich chinese send their kids to ps130? or is it too chinese for them? that's the real question here.

I think they'll follow the examples of the Russian rich who educate their kids abroad. English boarding schools already do a thriving biz. by catering to well-off Asian parents. Have for generations.

rich russians don't go to britain anymore, it's all about die Schweiz, silly

Supply of elite schools < demand. They go where they can.

people who choose swiss schools are very different from people who choose brittish ones. and you know that!!

then again, *i* don't know anything anymore. you're probably more up to date on recent stats.

Malthus: in my personal life, the people I know who are looking or have bought recently have looked for a very, very long time and have significant downpayments. Most have a very specific neighborhood (boils down to a handful of bldgs) that they want, which makes rental more difficult. None are banking on a huge return. RE as a consumable. There is still a lot of family $ backing up some purchases (based on recent actual transactions) on the UWS, as it pertains to larger apts.

swift code 8544.70.0000

I have noticed a lot of friends who are going through similar transitions as me - i.e. young family - have bought in the past two years. A lot downtown, Tribeca and Financial District. Early to mid 30s demographic. So for the ones that I see, I think the main triggers are (i) stage in life (ii) better affordability (relative to 2006-2008) (iii) and relatively low interest rates - most are using mortgages.

I'm with nyc10023: the answer to who's buying right now is consumers, not investors. Whether they are wealthy or not, they have cash burning a hole in their pocket, and don't have anything better to do with it, so they feel wealthy enough to spend on their home.

Bernakie mind games... only the stooopid suuuuccccuuuuub. Hello Stupid.

We are seeing wealthy baby boomers from either the Tri-state suburbs or further out buying for themselves or helping their kids.(Of course, these are the kind of clients I market to, so maybe there's some selection bias, but I am seeing them show up at my listings too.) Often cash buyers.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

$1.5mm for 285 lbs = $5,263/lbs. That's some expensive meat!

So really, it all comes down to buying now at $750/sf with a 4.75% 30 year fixed, or waiting until everything crashes and buying at $500/sf (according to stevie) with a 9% fixed 30 year? And the better choice is........

12%, cause it gives you greater deduction!

The correct Comparo is $2000psf 42nd St studio versus $500psf cpw classic 7.

Flmaozzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Who doubted my $500psf.

No worries, the chinese don't waste anything that can be chopped boiled or pickled. Hey Ali?, funny how you're just a middle aged Harvard brokewhore selling to your peers that are buying coops for their kids like I buy Lego for my son. I hear dog meat is cheap in china.

"buying at $500/sf (according to stevie) with a 9% fixed 30 year"

You can always refinance a few years later.

Well, if you really think things are going to be that bad, then you're also thinking interest rates aren't going to meaningfully reset lower "a few years later."

But seriously - no one in their right mind is, right NOW, is paying $2,000/sf. C'mon. But they are paying $700 - $850 psf for an appropriately decent place (whatever that means to them).

So, based on that - again - buying now at $750 or $800/sf with a 4.75% 30 year fixed, or waiting until everything crashes and buying at $500/sf (according to stevie) with a 9% (or greater?) fixed 30 year that you would be saddled with for more than just a few years?

And the better choice is........

I can't wait for New York to look like Kowloon.
All those hanging neon signs interspersed with noodle shops.
It's going to look a lot like the city in Blade Runner.
The big difference is that the re brokers don't know their replicants.
Harrison Ford like characters run around to Open Houses and off the brokers.
You know.....
that might have made an even better and more believable movie.

I was in Kowloon 12 months ago. It doesn't look too different from midtown-ish NYC (not talking about the Ctowns). Can't wait for really good Chinese food, in all its variations (insert favorite joke here) served in NON-holes-in-the-wall in Manhattan. Man, I need an Ippudo fix soon.

Infact, the apartment that Harrison's character lives in is actuslly the Ennis House (of Frank Llyod Wright fame).
And now....the real estate tie in: http://blog.moviefone.com/2009/06/22/on-sale-now-the-blade-runner-house/

1. The biggest reason to buy is job situation which in New York City looks ok. Citi is not going under. BOA is not going under. Every one was worried about this in 2009 which only took the price down 20% from the peak. Prices are back up 5-7%.
2. No supply in prime areas as there was not much new development in the last 2-3 years
3. Rich getting richer as they are the one with the skillset which can be leveraged in a global economy.
4. Chinese trying a find a safe haven if communists take away what they have in China. Lot of these Chinese made money in real estate in China and New York seems cheaper to them relative to HK. The only reason we are not seeing even more of them is the maintenance and taxes in New York city.
5. Low mortgage rates
6. None of this changes due to Greek situation.
7. If there is so much fear about budget ceiling why are people buying treasuries like crazy?

you know what they say...
Rucky in Real Estate, Rucky in Rove.

Is that another racial joke, asshole?

falco, that is true as in China, in the major cities a man without owning an apartment will not find a decent date.

....and the same applies in NYC....

300Mercer - is that true?

I would chalk that up to some serious overcompensation.

My theory is that it is due to many baby girls being aborted. Back to the main points.

1. The biggest reason to buy is job situation which in New York City looks ok. Citi is not going under. BOA is not going under. Every one was worried about this in 2009 which only took the price down 20% from the peak. Prices are back up 5-7%.
2. No supply in prime areas as there was not much new development in the last 2-3 years
3. Rich getting richer as they are the one with the skillset which can be leveraged in a global economy.
4. Chinese trying a find a safe haven if communists take away what they have in China. Lot of these Chinese made money in real estate in China and New York seems cheaper to them relative to HK. The only reason we are not seeing even more of them is the maintenance and taxes in New York city.
5. Low mortgage rates
6. None of this changes due to Greek situation.
7. If there is so much fear about budget ceiling why are people buying treasuries like crazy?

crazyburg....get a life and a sense of humor!
(maybe a brain too or try to figure out how to use more than .ooooo1% of the piece of crap keeping your ears seperated)

That's the best you could do?

crazyburg is busy i've got my sister stalking him

hb!!!

Tell me more about your sister.

you made eye contact with her like 30 seconds ago. she's blonde.

Is she older or younger than you?

i'm the best stalker ever!!!!

5 years younger

would you take the trip to Columbia County if you needed to?

nope

why am i going to columbiacounty? to care for our senile great uncle?

Then you aren't the best stalker ever.

Sometimes you have to take one for the team. Whether visiting Columbia County, Peter Cooper Village, or West 67th Street.

>why am i going to columbiacounty? to care for our senile great uncle?

Well, if there was a spate of cow tipping and you wanted to find out who was responsible.

anyway hb, i'm off to read for my book club. hope the food is good.

Enjoy

So much for my well thought out comment (and I do not mean the Chinese men comment)!! I will dare to post it the third time.

1. The biggest reason to buy is job situation which in New York City looks ok. Citi is not going under. BOA is not going under. Every one was worried about this in 2009 which only took the price down 20% from the peak. Prices are back up 5-7%.
2. No supply in prime areas as there was not much new development in the last 2-3 years
3. Rich getting richer as they are the one with the skillset which can be leveraged in a global economy.
4. Chinese trying a find a safe haven if communists take away what they have in China. Lot of these Chinese made money in real estate in China and New York seems cheaper to them relative to HK. The only reason we are not seeing even more of them is the maintenance and taxes in New York city.
5. Low mortgage rates
6. None of this changes due to Greek situation.
7. If there is so much fear about budget ceiling why are people buying treasuries like crazy?

dammit, now i'm having doubts. i mean, even if that person wasn't you, he would have been flattered, my sis is a beautiful girl. but that better have been you, i gave up 2 pairs of really good shoes to get her to do that.

Whether you pay in euros or dollars, 3% cash on cash return in a risky assets still sucks.

"We are seeing wealthy baby boomers from either the Tri-state suburbs or further out buying for themselves or helping their kids.(Of course, these are the kind of clients I market to, so maybe there's some selection bias, but I am seeing them show up at my listings too.) Often cash buyers."

The supply of wealthy boomers to subsidize their kids is running out with each apartment closing.

300_mercer,
1. How are Citi and BOA doing these days? Ok, so what happened in 2009 was based on fear... You don't believe in the existence of the foreclosure pipeline caused by the unemployment? Oh, as for that 5-7% increase, is that inflation adjusted? You think 2011 is going to be a up year?

2. Supply does not only come in the form of new developments.

3. Yes, the rich get richer, except for the stupid ones who buy an overpriced apt in NYC for $5mm thinking they can sell it for $10mm in a couple of years, but end up being forced to sell for $3.5mm.

4. Wasn't the Japanese suppose to buy up everything?

5. Higher down payment requirements.

6. Yeah, the Greek situation didn't effect the stock market at all, and even if it did, what does that have to do with NYC real estate right.../s/

7. people or the Fed? I do agree that the debt ceiling isn't an issue directly, but the policies/cuts being negotiated along with raising the debt ceiling might have some effect.

matsonjones, if I have to choose between "$750/sf and 4.75%" vs. "$500/sf and 9%", I would definitely choose the latter, if the decision was based on $ alone.

Listen malthus, the original post was a very smart question. The debt market are slowing down because nobody wants to take the risk that current asset valuations will hold.

The financial markets are holding their breath to see how Greek default and debt ceiling get resolved.

Also, we have not really seen yet if US regulators are going to play tough or if they will let Wall Street off the hook with loophole-ish new regs.

Many clouds hanging over the horizon....

Sunday, City and BOA are not going under. Citi is making money again and paying people well. I am dying to see some supply in the prime village. Anything which comes up gets snapped up at almost peak prices. I just got a 5/1 close to 3%. My comps are much cheaper than renting if I assume zero return on my downpayment of 30% and take the risk of rates going up in 5 years which if you believe the bears are not going up as we will have double dip.

"if I assume zero return on my downpayment of 30%"

Oy vey.

I'm going to have to side with inonada on that one.

The dividend return on your downpayment is the market rent minus your aftertax costs plus appreciation. Calling it zero is a stretch. Its probably 4%-ish which happens to suck.

Who are you Huntersburg? Apparently Streeteasy will carry my past ignoring of you over to your new screennames.

I'm Huntersburg.

To paraphrase 300_mercer: "...So much for my well thought out comment... I will dare to post it the third time..."

Forgetting the unreality of the $5,000,000+ club and the $2,000/psf for the moment -

For those in the under $3,000,000 club, paying $700 - $800 psf for an appropriately decent place (whatever that means to them).

So, based on that reality - again - buying now at $700 or $800/psf with a 4.75% 30 year fixed, or waiting until everything crashes and buying at $500/sf (according to stevie) with a 9% (or greater?) fixed 30 year that you would be saddled with for more than just a few years?

And the better choice is........

300 Mercer: what you might be witnessing with the wealthy buying apts for children etc is a fear that there will be out of bounds inflation. If so, buying RE or any hard asset is considered wise. And considering the unprecedented printing of money around the globe, if history holds true, inflation is inevitable. So we might be seeing the wealthy rats abandoning ship. That will have a short life span -- no point abandoning ship after it sinks.

However, you are also not taking into account the macro issues. Remember when Hank Paulson got down on his knees and begged Nancy Pelosi to vote for TARP. That is exactly where we are in the Euro scenario. If they can't establish some kind of huge rolling TARP to bail out Greece and the other countries at risk -- a huge task-- the European banks are toast. There will be world wide repercussions. Remember how well the RE market did after we realized our banks and economy were compromised? Well, the same downward strains could happen again. And the rich will not be immune.

We are witnessing an anomaly in the market, enjoy it while you can.

So one argument for going forward is that this is not 2009. But on the other hand, we have warnings that failure to resolve the first two points of my post could be a repeat of Lehman. So the more apt comparison is to August 08 no? Either Lehman is going to be bailed out or it isn't. So baby boomers are willing to bet their downpayment on the Germans, the Greeks and the ECB coming together?

For what its worth I ran into someone from Citi the other day who told me the axeman indeed cometh.

Tell me why I should consider buying anywhere in NYC metro and burbs when Wall Street employment is still CLEARLY CONTRACTING. And if I still want to buy, why would I consider accepting a cap rate less than 6%... When Wall Street grows rents rise and vice versa. Every little banker supports 3 mortal citizens.

I just bought a place in the village. I had enough cash to purchase all in cash but financed for tax reasons. I am planning on staying for at least 5 years and factored in zero appreciation when running the numbers. At a 48% marginal tax rate and with interest rates so low, it seemed like a better decision to buy than rent. Worst case scenario, I rent the place after I move out, get some tax-free rent, and sell at the depreciated value (essentially ensuring that I don't have a loss). I should have more than enough cash for a second purchase without the need to sell this apartment.

All that being said, I don't think investment properties in NYC are necessarily a great idea right now.

I think some people believe that he who accumulates the most money (or buys or rents an apt) at the lowest price wins. We bought last year at what we felt was a good price, but most importantly we love our apt and are very happy there. What if Harlem crashes and we could get the same apt for 100K less in three years? Well that would be 3 years of not living near Central Park, biking along the Hudson, going to museums. Some years ago on a finance discussion board someone announced they were taking their profits and buying a trip to Hawaii for the family. The response was "don't sell this stock it will run up another 10%". Obviously someone missed the point. If you are like Mytwocents and can definitely afford to buy in a building you really like it may be the right decision independent of market conditions.

Blah blah blah. I live right near the park too. Its too big a deal for all but the super rich to make such light of it. Mytwocents, its only tax free rent if you evade taxes. And selling flat in 5 years is no where nears your worst case... and your transaction costs will eat much of the tax benefit. If you run a real analysis, I think you will find you have paid dearly for your ownership privilige.

i rent an apt that i am totally pleased with, in terms of the place itself, as well as location, etc

i just dont agree that one cant usually replicate that which one can buy, in a rental

and in harlem, one certainly can rent in most of the buildings where apts are for sale

in my case it is clearly cheaper to rent than own, and i enjoy other benefits like flexibilty, and that i live in a renovation done for me by my landlord prior to my moving in, which he will do again when current becomes out-of-date--no one ever considers that the owner is the lucky renovator every ten years or so, when the property goes to Out-of-date or even wreck status

and given that i am a double-dipper who thinks a lower low is possible, and sees best case as a flat market for many years, why would i get on board as a buyer?

and to say "it's not about the money, it's about happiness" is not what this board is about

"and to say "it's not about the money, it's about happiness" is not what this board is about".
Completely agree.

I am sick about hearing about non financial considerations. They are obvious and dont bear repeating over and effing over again. Bye all.

Rhino,

It is tax-free, as my depreciation deductions will exceed any net rent I receive.

I acted as my own broker on purchase and it's a coop. Net result is significantly lower transaction costs.

I'm pretty sure I ran a "real" analysis.

At the end of the day, I would rather buy than rent. I agree with Harlembuyer. Being happy is far more important than whether it is fantastic financial decision. I'm not going to rent when I don't want to just so that I can wait for the market to bottom.

You people always assume renters are unhappy people...like you need to own a coop to enjoy your life. So absurd.

but harlem buyer, you are clearly in the happiness before economics camp--youve said youd have no problem if your apt could be bought for 100k less in 3 years--cuz you like your apt and the attributes of its location

my point is that you could easily rent comparable stock to whatever you own in harlem with a free option that the economics prove superior, and still have the lifestyle you like

"i just dont agree that one cant usually replicate that which one can buy, in a rental"

Generally agree - there are some outstanding rental properties out there as long as you know where to look.

"and i enjoy other benefits like flexibilty"

Everybody has different needs, but this is one I find to be way overstated in many cases. Flexibility in what exactly? That you can move out on a moment's (well, most likely a few months') notice? After a certain age, how often does that happen, for most people? Unless you don't see yourself staying in NYC longterm (in which case buying makes little sense to begin with), I don't see all that much actual value in the "flexibility."

"a renovation done for me by my landlord prior to my moving in, which he will do again when current becomes out-of-date"

You have a written guarantee from your landlord that when you deem the furnishings/appliances out-of-date, he/she will promptly replace them? That would be impressive. Not really buying your story.

"and to say "it's not about the money, it's about happiness" is not what this board is about"

It's about both, IMHO, but if you want to dictate what "this board is about" go nuts...

I can think of 6 couples that I know who have bought in the last approx. 6 months or are in contract currently. Summary stats:

* all are early to mid 40s
* 5x2 kids, 1x3 kids. Kids are young - age range 2 to 10 with a cluster around 5-7. 7 kids private school; 4 public; 2 not yet in school
* 4x1 income, 2x2 incomes. All Wall Street jobs, generally 12-15 years into the WS career. Approx. even split between trading and banking/cap mkts with one private equity and one M&A lawyer. One big earner (my guess - not necessarily well informed - $4mm p.a., could be more but not likely much less); rest likely in the $1.25-1.5mm HHI range, give or take
* purchases: 3 to 4 BR; 4 coop/2 condo (2xCarnegie Hill pre-war, 1xCPW pre-war, 1xUES post-war coop, 1xUES new build condo, 1xUES mid-80's condo)
* purchase prices: approx $2.5-low $3s mm; a couple with significant renos, including a gut combination; total cost once moved in approx $3-3.5mm
* 4 trade-up buyers, 2 moving from rental
* no big mortgages (conforms to coop requirements but I don't think that actually had much impact on the outcome in these cases). Average across the group might be 50/50 financing, so the typical profile is a year or so of gross income down and a mortgage of a similar size

I haven't had long discussions with these people about their real estate philosophy, and my strong suspicion is that they don't really have one (at least by the standards of SE regulars). Rather, they are families who aren't having more kids but whose kids are growing, the parents are mid-career Wall Street people with some confidence in employment/income outlook who have accumulated some assets (none are big spenders) and they are at a stage in life where they want to live in something closer to family sized where they can either stay for a long time or trade up again in 5 years if the career thing continues to go well. No more complicated than that.

Back to the original query,

The Williamsburg market has been very active with lots of first time young buyers. NYC's high proportion of renters are well positioned to take advantage of interest rates and the RE slow down as they don't have to sell a property before buying. We have plenty of friends in Atlanta who would love to upgrade or move but cannot sell their current residence. Coupling this with a high international demand, it's easy to see why the NYC market is different.

you prove moronic yet again, bj

flexibility has huge value for the renter:

no one buys a property thinking something will happen to them which requires they will move prior to when they estimated at time of purchase--but when that thing happens, if they rent, they can move quickly and without the hassle of selling (if they can sell) and the financial pain of attendant transaction costs, or without becoming an absentee landlord or some other fun iteration of this

and if the market tanks, which it mat well a renter has the flexibilty to buy at much lower prices, instead of biting on a property for which they overpaid

and if their lifestyle changes in unanticipated ways, such that the apt/neighborhood etc they bought, thinking it would suffice ad infinitum, no longer works, changes can be made without the extreme difficulty for an owner

re renovation:

10 years after your purchase, if your apt isnt trashed by raising a family there, your fine taste will certainly be out of date--the value to update will nedd to be restored by you when you sell, or you will discount your sale price accordingly--my landlord renovated my rental immediately prior to my movein--if i leave an outofdate apt in need of renovation, my LL will pay for that, not me--you are such a dummy

and, all else equal as you, in a rare moment of brilliance, agreed could generally be achieved in rental vs owned property; it's only about the money, fool

you own in williamsburg--you cheer ownership, and ownership in williamsburg--and other idiotic concepts like the east river ferry--and you produce the windiest illogic as you cheer

I beat my dog because I rent. Forgive me.

Owners, how do you factor that when you sell your apartment in 10 years you will need all new fixtures to maintain the value.

Sometimes when the other renters are not looking, I beat their dogs too. Forgive me.

Bottoms, you get so friggin agitated when I respond to any of your posts, it's rather comical. Chill out.

"no one buys a property thinking something will happen to them which requires they will move prior to when they estimated at time of purchase--but when that thing happens, if they rent, they can move quickly and without the hassle of selling (if they can sell) and the financial pain of attendant transaction costs, or without becoming an absentee landlord or some other fun iteration of this"

You say all this like it's an inevitability. I would never advocate buying if there's a real risk of this happening - that ain't smart planning, obviously. That said, I think you're too quick to jump to the "must sell" conclusion if "something" happens. Unless it's a restrictive coop, renting your apartment is really not that difficult and not necessarily as painful as you make it out to be. So again, I'll ask, where is this incredible value of flexibility? That you can move a bit more quickly if "something" happens? Yippee.

"and if their lifestyle changes in unanticipated ways, such that the apt/neighborhood etc they bought, thinking it would suffice ad infinitum, no longer works"

This is all true, but frankly mostly applicable to those 25 and under. Like I said, once you hit a certain age, these huge unexpected life changes are fewer and further between.

"the value to update will nedd to be restored by you when you sell, or you will discount your sale price accordingly"

Of course. But if you think you're totally immune to the costs of real estate renovation just because you rent, then we should expect landlords to all be declaring bankruptcy any day now from all the free renos they're doing year-in, year-out. They would never dare to raise the rent on a suddenly nicer apartment.

"you own in williamsburg--you cheer ownership, and ownership in williamsburg--and other idiotic concepts like the east river ferry--and you produce the windiest illogic as you cheer"

I don't cheer ownership blindly. It makes sense for some, and definitely not for others. Ditto Williamsburg. Both things work for me, that seems to irritate you immensely, so you label it "cheering." You've just proven to be a giant ninny. And PS - the ferry is doing very well. You should try it instead of just foaming at the mouth about it.

so only people under 25 get sick, get divorced, lose their job, get unexpectedly pregnant or receive great job offers from out of town?

Rhino - I assume that we're going to get nicked on sale price because the reno that the previous owners did (and which was reasonably fresh when we bought 3 years later) is now getting pretty tired, esp with two kids banging the place up for a few years. I just take 100K off my mental estimate of what we could get out of the apartment if we sold and consider it part of our housing consumption over those years. Maybe we could spend a fraction of the $100K on cosmetic sprucing up pre-sale and reduce the price hit by more than the spend, but it's hard to be precise. If we sold today, the assumed $100K of lost proceeds would work out to ~$1k/mo for the period of ownership, which is 60% or so of average maintenance over the same time period. Point being that depreciation is a meaningful part of the overall economics of ownership

I think, according to Wbottom, one should never - ever - buy.

The only thing I STILL don't get (and have already posted three times in this thread) is Wbottom's assertion - "...and if the market tanks, which it may well a renter has the flexibilty to buy at much lower prices, instead of biting on a property for which they overpaid..."

To which I would respond 'congrats that you can now buy (if you wish) at $500/psf instead of $800/psf. But what about those pesky interest rates that were under 5% and are now almost 10% (or higher)?'