NY State and city population decrease
Started by sjtmd
over 14 years ago
Posts: 670
Member since: May 2009
Discussion about
http://www.empirecenter.org/pb/2011/08/migration1080311.cfm NYS is losing residents faster than any other state, with NYC leading the way (457,000 / minus 5.7% in the last decade). The demand for housing, with persistent high prices, however, remains strong. What gives?
You're just looking at migration flows, not overall population change. You can see in the total population bar charts that the population actually increased over the decade despite the migration outflow. (Also there's a note at the bottom indicating the NYC data may be wrong.)
There is a census time series here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_City. The population of NYC was at its highest level ever in 2010, even without any adjusted for the disputed census figures (which could cause the number to increase). The ~15% increase in population since the post-war low in the 1980 census is in fact one of the key factors that has driven demand for housing over that period.
The migration stats have a lot to do with New York's status as a gateway for new immigrants. Many people arrive here first and get established but later disperse to other places in the country for education, job opportunities, etc. These other places could be as close as the suburbs, which are NYC "emigration" in all cases and NYS "emigration" in the cases of NJ and CT. You have to think about the foreign immigration/domestic emigration stats as having a revolving door aspect to them - some of the immigrants of the '90s became emigrants in the '00s, etc.
also, look at the types of people coming and going..
..lets use Harlem as a micro-parallel for NYC (and arguably NY metro and beyond)...
..trade in the 6-person family in a 1/2bed/studio with a single/young couple yup..
population down, purchasing power up.
"The migration stats have a lot to do with New York's status as a gateway for new immigrants."
Yes, but more people moved out than moved in.
"...later disperse to other places in the country for education, job opportunities, etc."
I thought they move here for all that... Apparently not.
"...Harlem...trade in the 6-person family in a 1/2bed/studio with a single/young couple yup..."
Except studies showed that the people who moved out makes more than those who moved in.
"The increase of 2 million people in the state’s total population since 1980, despite the continuing net outflow of residents to the rest of the country, can be attributed mainly to the “natural increase” of births over deaths. But since New York’s population has risen much more slowly than the national average, it has lost 10 congressional seats since 1980, and will lose two more based on 2010 census results."
I know that Chuck Rangel had three apartments, but I can't imagine the loss of ten Congressional seats would have a material effect on housing demand.
apt23 moved out for half the year.
And now, it seems, Faye Dunaway is also leaving.
apt23, Faye, so much drama
I wonder what reapportionment would have looked like had the census been done in 2007 (unconstitutional I know) when the sun belt building boom was still going strong. Would New York state have lost even more seats? Don't forget that areas upstate remained seriously job challenged even when the city's economy and population were booming.
The rent is too damned high! (But still cheaper than buying....)
HAHAHAHA!
Statistics need to be looked at critically. This is a perfect example of why.
Any data should be looked at critically. What makes this 'a perfect example why'?
Add back everything from all the footnotes and there is still a significant number leaving the city/state. More importantly, compare the numbers for other states. I suppose the census people only under count NY'ers and over count all other states...
If anything, this is a perfect example where denial is more powerful than any data.
Faye Dunaway ain't leavin. She's being kicked out for abusing rent stabilization.
leavin = kicked out me thinks
What did apt23 decide? Move 1/2+ year to Florida (with cat) to avoid taxes here, or stay in NY?