Williamsburg Is Over Priced and Will Plumet

So, is the reason you're bad-mouthing Williamsburg is so that people will flock to you to buy where you do sell?
If "everyone" is asking about Williamsburg, maybe people are actually interested in it.
People have predicting the demise of Williamsburg for years (where have you been?). And so far it is one of the strongest markets in Brooklyn.

You sound like an agent who has lost some clients who eventually bought in Williamsburg. It seems not only are you not hip, but you are out of touch and really don't know the market. I wouldn't trust your judgement if I wanted to buy in your area.

At least this person was not anonymous. Unless this is a practical joke by one of his enemies, say Jim Jones.

I nominate Angelo as best poster of the week. :)

>So these developers who wanted to sell are now forced to rent and they think they can charge Manhattan or DUMBO brooklyn prices to make up for all the money they are losing.

Ok, Williamsburg isn't Manhattan.

But why DUMBO and Manhattan in the same breath?

because angelo specializes there.

it's all market dictated. lots of people like williamsburg. just walked home in williamsburg after eating in a packed restaurant and walking down well populated streets and buying some things at a store full of customers. betting against an entire neighborhood seems like it could backfire. i'm a grown up condo owner who's lived in 15 different NYC neighborhoods, and i am happy in williamsburg. let the buyers' desires take you to where you can make money. your strategy is kinda dumb.

A couple things that indicate to me angeloz is a bit out of touch here:

"Over 10,000 brand new units were built in Williamsburg"
Show us the math please.

"a ton in the pipeline that are still about to be released"
Again, show us the "ton in the pipeline." This tends to get way overblown, but some numbers would be nice.

"So these developers who wanted to sell are now forced to rent and they think they can charge Manhattan or DUMBO brooklyn prices"
New rentals go quickly here, which is a bit surprising to me given the crazy prices, but hey, it's working. And some of these prices are higher than some Manhattan neighborhoods even.

"It has no where near as many bars, not nearly as much night life."
The most laughable claim. If anything, there's too much nightlife. And consequently, it ain't nearly that hard to get a cab these days. Bedford, Grand, Driggs are the most populous routes.

"The whole neighborhood might crumble."
Hilarious. But seriously, good luck to you Angelo.

Guess there goes blowjb's investment in the hinterlands of Brooklyn at the peak of the market. Time to throw the baby out with the bathwater, move to Long Island City.

HAHAHAHAHA!

steve, not today. Seriously. Pick up your rude, stupid comments tomorrow. Please.

Ah! LICCDope, Arbiter of Good Taste. That's a new one.

I go to Wmsbrg as a tourist, and disagree w/ Angelo. There's lots of nightlife there, and it is a destination spot. I don't see that in Bklyn Hts/Cobble Hill/Smith St, though he's right, those areas have better quality existing buildings. Wmsbrg's older buildings do have that slummy on-the-waterfront feel of blow really hard and they'll fall down. There's one building I can't pinpoint right now where you can see the slant to the whole facade. But I see the same thing in the East Village, which really does not impress me at all and is more expensive. He has it right about pricing, though. It's priced like it's Manhattan or Brooklyn Heights, when it's something very different.

Location, location, location.

Is this a serious posting? I guess so, since a real name was used. So off base, as explained by BJW. I would add that the idea that "So these developers who wanted to sell are now forced to rent" is a fantasy. Several large projects in Williamsburg -- 80 met/58 met/, NSP, Edge -- never went rental and have sold very, very well in the last year, with Edge reported to be the fasting selling building in all NY.

stevejhx, why? because our media has chosen to celebrate a tragedy for tv ratings?

Angelo, there's this saying about rocks and glass houses. Do you think Williamsburg is overpriced because everything is overpriced, or that it is particularly overpriced.

I went to your firm's front page to look at some listings, wondering what I'd find. The first one is for 1 Main St, so I looked up SE to see what kind of gems might be in that building. I found this one: 3000 sq ft listed for sale at $8.2M or for rent at $17.5K:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/570070-condo-1-main-street-fl-14-dumbo-brooklyn
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/703213-condo-1-main-street-fl-14-dumbo-brooklyn

On a price-to-rent basis, it's at 40x. On an absolute basis, that is horrendous. On a relative basis compared to other areas, that is still quite high. So relative to rents, it is overpriced even more so than the rest of Manhattan & Brooklyn.

Then there is the question of the general levels of price & rent. At those prices & rents, I can find the same amount of space overlooking Central Park. Trust me, I get the whole "hip neighborhood" thing & the view, but why the hell would I be paying prime Central Park view prices for DUMBO?

"why the hell would I be paying prime Central Park view prices for DUMBO?"

Takes a dumbo to buy in DUMBO?

Be careful, Sunday - LICCDope will scold you.

I am temporarily living in Wburg. I can agree with Angelo's comments about the L train, boring architectures...etc. (not to mention the annoyance of hipster infestation). Angelo, you are off on the nightlife aspect - it is quite vibrant. Good restaurants and bars are plenty and a new bar and a new restaurant just opened a couple of weeks ago right across from where I live. I was a Manhattan snob and I was pleasantly surprised at the quality of some of these restaurants.

As far as rental prices, yes, it is ridiculously overpriced, but rental is going fast in the Burg. How do I know? Both of my roommates are agents specialized in the area - I hear them getting calls everyday.

As for me, I would never buy in Wburg: the architecture is boring, the neighborhood has no charm, the pricing is ridiculous and the hipsters are, like bedbugs, never go away.

I think the correct thread is 'borkers are overpriced and their income will plummet'

It's like two hookers trying to argue who is more 'moraler'. The facts are we in the final stages of mass capitulation on nyc re and the only ppl who drank the koolaid are arguing against it. 'relative value' of a $20 bj or $17.99 one, chance of disease 99.99%. Chk every 6 months for abnormal oozing of fluids.

whitebottom, you've bought into all the bullshit today? someone who lost a loved on 10 years ago should be especially sad for what reason? the way this country celebrates tragedy is embarrassing.

w67thstreet
about 2 hours ago I think the correct thread is 'borkers are overpriced and their income will plummet'

It's like two hookers trying to argue who is more 'moraler'. The facts are we in the final stages of mass capitulation on nyc re and the only ppl who drank the koolaid are arguing against it. 'relative value' of a $20 bj or $17.99 one, chance of disease 99.99%. Chk every 6 months for abnormal oozing of fluids.

So we'll see that 500 per square foot pricing in 6 months? 6 more months? you've been saying the same stupid shit since 2008 right? Meaning the classic 7 on cpw will be your's for about 700k then?

Real estate for sale
in All Upper West Side
We found 33 listings with at least 7 rooms with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2.5 bathrooms on Central Park West
Median price: $7,250,000 Median size: 2,936 ft² Median price per ft²: $2,080

Who's "wronger" west67 or all of these owners?

to be fair to west67 i went back and looked at what was currently in contract. he's right afterall, the price per square foot is much lower:

Real estate for sale
in All Upper West Side
We found 9 listings in contract with at least 7 rooms with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2.5 bathrooms on Central Park West
Median price: $5,750,000 Median size: 3,050 ft² Median price per ft²: $2,070

"Do you think Williamsburg is overpriced because everything is overpriced, or that it is particularly overpriced."

'nada, exactly. Most things are overpriced - it ain't a neighborhood in particular. If anything, Williamsburg has weathered the storm surprisingly well to date. I don't think for a minute that that's permanently sustainable - there are issues here. The problem with Angelo's post is he doesn't really seem to know the neighborhood well enough to explain them (I mean, the nightlife comment made me wonder if the whole thing was tongue-in-cheek for a second).

The main issues with the neighborhood from my perspective:
* Already overcrowded, imminent pressures on local infrastructure. The L train is better than most people think it is, but new residents keep on coming, and it's only a matter of time before even the most creative solutions to alleviate rush-hour issues on the L provide minimal relief. The ferry is great for those working in Midtown East, Dumbo, or the Financial District, but that's not everyone. The re-routing of the M train to midtown also helped, but for a lot of northsiders, the walk to Marcy might be a bit much.
* Lack of green space, especially in the wake of disappeared funding for Bushwick Inlet Park. That was a big part of the promise from the rezoning, but who knows how long it'll be til it gets done now?
* How long can the rental market stay this hot? I've been saying this for over a year now, but still think it's an issue. There's somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 new rentals coming to market in the next 6-8 months. They'll fill up, but I don't know how they can keep charging $2600+ for 1BRs.

People like steve and Bottoms flap their gums about the area, but don't seem to know much or put any actual thought into what's being said. As per usual.

Unless you are among the ethnic or religious groups that call the area home, why would anyone BUY in Williamsburg? Either daddy bought for little hipster, or some late 20s/early 30s guy/gal/couple is trying to re-live (or perhaps more likely, first experience) early 20s, in which case, why not rent? The whole thing makes no sense to be buying.

> The facts are we in the final stages of mass capitulation on nyc re

Final stages? When did the initial stages begin?
Everyone I know is sitting on mountains of capital gains.
Perhaps a small minority bought in 2009 or whatever the peak was.
Final stages? Did the intermediate stages even begin?

Wow. This kind of thread again?!? Seriously. Williamsburg seems to be doing pretty well despite the skeptics. Sure there's a lot of supply, but there's also a fair amount of demand. And the last time I checked, prices are determined by how those two factors come together. As for the L train situation, sure it's not the best, but the F train sucks for people out that way, the crosstown bus sucks in general, it takes forever for people who live on the Upper East Side to get to Chelsea or the West Village, etc. And it terms of night life and restaurants, if you think there's a lack of these things in Williamsburg I suggest you take a trip out here and see for yourself. Hey, if Williamsburg just isn't your think, that's cool. There's a place that works for everyone in this amazing city of our. But lately, Williamsburg seems to be working for a whole lot of people.

Funny how there are 3 posters who make exactly the same points on the negative side and the positive side.

Bottoms, cheerleading, huh? Maybe you should actually read before blathering. As for "knowing the 'burg quite well," having one meal here does not make you particularly knowledgeable. Now if you want to discuss actual numbers on supply... which would require you removing a giant stick from your namesake cavity.

bjw, you forget that Wbuttocks had a "girlfriend in Brooklyn".

Angeloz,

You should stick to sales 101 and avoid any real estate market analysis because your post is absurd! 40% drop! Get a clue. Have you noticed projects coming back to life in Williamsburg? Why do you think that is? Are we to believe that you’re smarter than the Chetrits (billionaire RE developers/owners) who just spent millions completing 175 Kent or Stellar Management (Huge RE players) that recently bought 111 Kent and now spending millions to complete it? How about the guys that are doing the Jardin building or GFI Development which is completing the finger building? Do you think that they just decided to invest more money into completing those projects in order to lose?? Do you think that the banks that financed them continue with their construction draws with the expectation that they will lose money!! You love DUMBO? How about the Walentas family and their hotel project on Kent. Are you smarter than them too? Why do you think that they’re developing a hotel in Willamsburg? Did you know that land prices doubled in the past 1.5 years in Williamsburg? 10,000 apartments in supply!! Please!!! The biggest supply was at Northside Piers and the Edge. As a broker, you should be familiar with their sales numbers but apparently you’re not! How about 75% sold at 2 Northside Piers and 65% sold at the Edge in only 11 months since opening AND in one of the worst real estate markets! In the second quarter of 2011, guess which area in Brooklyn had the most $1M sales. That’s right Angeloz, Williamsburg!! Park Slope came in at number 2. Clearly, successful people are buying $1M+ apartments but obviously you think that these people are just idiots. All these attorneys, doctors, techies, and finance guys, are complete fools but you’re the smart one. All the rental buildings are filling up in less than 3 months because Williamsburg just sucks! How about the restaurants? La Esquina just opened their second location in Williamsburg and now Cafe Mogador is as well. Are you telling me that they don't get it either?

At the end of the day, the attraction to Williamsburg is very simple so let me break it down for you:

1) PRICE: $650-800 psf for new condo construction vs. at LEAST $1,200 psf and up in Manhattan. In addition, great amenities and 10+ year tax abatements which means LOW MAINTENANCE
2) LOCATION: One stop out of Manhattan
3) EXCELLENT TRANSPORTATION: 3 stops to Union Square which will connect you to the west side and east side trains. The L train isn't perfect but neither are the 4,5,6 ON the east side or the 1,9,2,or 3 on the West side. Try getting on those trains at rush hour and not only will you wait 3 trains but you’ll feel like a sardine.
3) Views: If you live on the waterfront, the sickest views which would cost an arm and a leg in Manhattan.
4) SAFETY: Williamsburg is a gentrifying neighborhood which is why the price is right yet one doesn’t feel scared walking around the neighborhood.

Williamsburg is kicking ass and only getting better!

Oh Billy, Billy, Billy...
How they disrespect you.
If only they took a sip. Just a tiny sip of water from Newtown creek.
Then they would know.
Who needs ConEd when you can glow in the dark.

When I speak of Billyburg you thought I said, "super fun".

I said,"SUPER FUND"!

"one doesn't feel scared walking around the neighborhood" personally i am afraid of skinny jeans on anyone over 30 or 140 lbs. and i saw a hipster pass out from heatstroke once because he was wearing a knit hat in july. but that was in the ev.

If you had to chose between living across for the soon to be functional waste transfer station by Asphalt Green or Billyburg, which would you chose?

Bad smell or hipster hell?

Ok, this is my last drink. Running out of ice anyway.

Even not bearish, recent purchaser, 300 mercer will not buy in non-prime Manhattan as scarcity is not an issue in non-prime areas. That is the bottom line for Dumbo, Wburg. Rich people only buy prime manhattan regardless of the cost.

great entry, falcog!

"Rich people only buy prime manhattan regardless of the cost."

mercer, aside from the fact that comfortable buying multi-million dollar properties doesn't qualify someone as "rich" in your eyes, if paying upwards of $2,000 psf validates your "richness," then by all means buy more of it!

Keep on drinking, falcog. Wunnerful poety.

Wouldn't it be nice if Angeloz had the balls to respond to some of these questions? Nothing worse than posting a lot of baseless malarkey and then running away. Says a lot about the type of broker we are dealing with doesn't it?

Oh, JuiceDrivel, can't you let people have some fun?

PS: How's your reworked mortgage working out for you? Were you ultimately able to avoid bankruptcy, or not?

HAHAHAHAHA!

Bankruptcy? Would that mean I would have to rent in a dumpy place like the Ellington? Thank god I don't need to do that!

steve, how's that Fire Island place working out for you? Can't get rid of it?

JuiceMan, be careful - steve enjoys "having fun" up until you start poking fun at his particulars. Classic example of being able to dish but not take. Always a blast at parties!

Steve, are you going to take that? bjw just called you a ninny and said you are full of malarkey.

"how's that Fire Island place working out for you? Can't get rid of it?"

Absolutely a problem, Juicy: not with the market, but with the Out-of-Control Board, who QUADRUPLED maintenance and instituted a flip-tax, making it more expensive to own a co-op than to own a house!

One more reason NEVER to buy a co-op in NYS: NUTCASE omnipotent incompetent Boards.

Who ever heard of taking out a $3.7 million 15-year self-amortizing 7.22% mortgage on a complex barely worth $5 million, on a sandbar, to replace all the windows that didn't need replacing and to side the whole thing in cedar when vinyl would've cost half?

Beware....

FYI, Juicy: if you could afford my Dumpy Rental, Juicy, you wouldn't need to have your mortgage reworked....

HAHAHAHA!

Oh - mortgage taken out in February 2009, at the nadir of the worst recession since 1937! Values have been completely destroyed, for anyone lucky enough to sell.

seems steve is quite candid re his paticulars--even those not as stellar as his choice to rent during our ongoing RE debacle

i wish i could predict the markets i trade as well as one can predict that our slurping cheerleader bj will come running to defend her beloved williamsburg--home of her absolute peak purchase particular

she's particularly defensive of this particular

juicy---did you wash up/change gloves afte typing?? that keyboard has a damned pulse

Sounds like your real estate purchase decisions are as bad as your stock picks. Now I understand why you live in low income housing.

"FYI, Juicy: if you could afford my Dumpy Rental, Juicy, you wouldn't need to have your mortgage reworked...."

Yet again a statement that steve knows nothing about real estate

Bottoms, only one being defensive here is you re: Esteban. Your courtship tactics are adorable. I mean, if you actually read the thread, you'd see I'm quite candid about the issues with the neighborhood. But you're the guy who disappears from threads when I showed you the rent ratios you said couldn't exist.

Steve, on the other hand, blames the "incompetent board" for his RE troubles. Read up on all his conversations with swe re: equities investing to see how touchy he gets. But maybe you can come to his rescue there too. I'm curious as to the logo on the Bottoms cape.

"Sounds like your real estate purchase decisions are as bad as your stock picks."

Hmm. I don't think I made those real estate decisions, Juicy, though my stocks are making a lot of money right now.

And even if I sold below the lowest price sold at in the co-op complex, I would still have made money. My mortgage is at 2.5%, AND I DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO HAVE IT REWORKED!

Steve, that original comment was pretty tasteless.

we are not interested in tuna with good taste.
Just tunas that taste good
sorry Charlie

steve lives in a dumpy Manhattan above market rental and owns a unsellable co-op on Fire Island where the maintenance is greater than the mortgage. His maintenance and rent are rising faster than his income so he is considering moving to Florida.

Don't you wish you had his real estate savvy?

ahhh plowjop (that's what arnie calls em)

just deal with the fact that you bought in a neighborhood at the peak, in mid-gentrification--a neighborhood with a glut of freshbuilt supply, and all sortsa land waiting to be developped if eeevvvveeerrr current supply gets drawn down

youve been thrashing around here for years, literally, trying to compensate for your own particular folly

follyslurp!!!

I am starting to think TOP was a hoax.

"His maintenance and rent are rising faster than his income so he is considering moving to Florida."

Uhm, you're only partially right. I AM moving to Florida.

Very much looking forward, as well, as most of my family lives there and I have lots of long-term friend there. Plus the cost differential is PURE PROFIT!

I already have my BMW picked out!

steve is moving to Florida? I think I just heard a huge cheer from all the streeteasy readers . . .

"Don't you wish you had his real estate savvy?

You should, Juicy, because the 3 properties I've bought and sold I made a huge profit on.

Bottoms, why so bitter? I don't know what "mid-gentrification" means in your brain, but some of us are pretty happy with the way it is and don't really care for having a local Starbucks or Banana Republic at every corner. And as I told you before, I bought at a price-to-rent ratio just over 16. Not the heist of the century by any means, but a price level I was pretty comfortable with. If I hadn't found that, I'd most likely still be renting.

And you've been yapping incessantly about "supply" and "land waiting to be developed" - how bout some actual numbers to back up your opinions for a change? Come on, you can do it, Bottoms!

> You should, Juicy, because the 3 properties I've bought and sold I made a huge profit on.

Only because he did the math wrong and added 100% to his "return".

"I have lots of long-term friend there."

Steve, just because the Medicare crowd can't run fast enough to get away from you doesn't mean they're your friends.

I'm not the biggest fan of WB, but this guy is a little wacky.

Yes, a lot of the housing stock is neither brownstone, nor loft, but if you don't like those, don't buy them. If anything, it might mean a premium for the better stuff.

In terms if "not enough bars", I think the guy accidentally got off at the wrong stop.... probably Canarsie.

Yes, tons of development, and the area isn't particularly limited, unlike say a Brooklyn Heights or tiny DUMBO that can't really push the borders very much outside of annexing vinegar hill (also still small) or such... but stuff closer to the train will generally stay a premium.

And, it might not be this guy or my cup of tea, but clearly a draw for some types, and those that like following that type around. Everyone can make their own judgements here, but clearly there is draw for a couple of groups here as in their "ideal" destination... I don't see that changing anytime soon. Way too much critical mass here.

Having ridden the L way too many times, don't love it, but its not the worst train. Good in the sense that it connects to trains, bad in the sense that you have to connect unless you're aiming to be around 14th (personally, I prefer a train that goes north south in manhattan, for much more likelihood of one train, big on a weekend)

> Uhm, you're only partially right. I AM moving to Florida.

NOW we know why Steve is so pissed off right now... its not just the money he lost... now he can't afford NYC anymore either... even in Times Square or LIC.

Nicest thing Ediot could say about anybody: "I'm not the biggest fan of...."

Incidentally, Ediot, it's "of WB's," not "of WB."

steve, can we visit you in Naples and get a ride in your tricked out golf cart?

"Incidentally, Ediot, it's "of WB's," not "of WB.""

Steve, pretty sure he's talking about the neighborhood, not the trolled-out poster. Nice try on being a smartypants though. Besides, it's pronounced "Bottoms."

Poor, poor (in multiple ways) Florida Steve...

lol

Juice, how much fun do you think Steve is on the golf course? I'm picturing Judge Smails for some reason...

"can we visit you in Naples and get a ride in your tricked out golf cart"

If you visit me, please do so in Naples. I'll be in Ft. Lauderdale.

FYI Real Gay Men Don't Play Golf.

HAHAHAHAHA!

Love the Discussion. To make things clear, I was not bashing Williamsburg, it could be a great neighborhood for some people. I was just questioning the valuation there. I question this because many people are coming to me from Williamsburg, and those who ask about it, don't know and have never lived there. So i am hearing from a primary source, people who did invest in the area and now the ones coming to me want out. I see this trend rising and due to the issues with the new construction it can only increase.

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/w-burg-condo-needs-1-15m-in-water-damage-repairs-report

this is not the only new building falling apart already. As for 10,000 units, yes 10,000 new units were approved for Williamsburg and Greenpoint. http://www.plannyc.org/taxonomy/term/665
Developers have been heavily subsidized for these building and they are able to build for a small fraction of what they are charging and selling at.

Have there been successful projects in Williamsburg? Of course, thanks to hard work of the broker community over there selling the area and creating a buzz. Great job brokers. I commend you all, and I hope the area continues to do well. I dont want to see any area go down.

But this keeps happening
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/karl-fischer-designed-building-the-continental-in-williamsburg-receives-foreclosure-notice-from-capital-one

And buildings arent selling as well as others

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/111-kent-now-available-as-rental

But dont worry Brokers, you are the Middle men, Up or Down, you will do good.

As for night life, my comment here was taken out of context, YES there is plenty of nightlife in Williamsburg, and some amazing restaurants. I compared this to the east village which trumps most neighborhoods with night life, but i only compared them because I had clients looking in both areas for this criteria. So I think we all can agree the East Village has more nightlife than Williamsburg...

So while a few buildings did well, they didn't do as well as planned. They missed their numbers, selling quick doesnt mean they sold at their projected rates when they built. This is all over NYC, not just Williamsburg, but i pointed it out because there is just so much more new development there than anywhere else.

I love emerging neighborhoods, I specialize in downtown manhattan and downtown brooklyn, so I know a little about a new area being rezoned and waiting for the future. I get the pitch, low common charges, 600-800psf, right out of manhattan, but will you put your money where your mouth is? My real estate 101 is "I wont show anything to a client, that i wouldnt purchase myself"

Bottom line, If your buying a home to live in and you love the area, and you can afford it, well then you just made a great purchase, no matter which area you buy in. Just do your research, dont just listen to your broker blab about how many new restaurants just opened and that will make it a great purchase.

> steve, can we visit you in Naples and get a ride in your tricked out golf cart?

lol

Is this one of those assisted-living facilities?

> I'll be in Ft. Lauderdale.

Yes, that is the EXACT place the richest of the rich who can live anywhere live.

(It is actually where my poorer cousins all moved)

Angeloz, your analytical method is flawed. People coming to you about Williamsburg is because they are hearing good things about it, been out there and liked it, etc. How is that a negative sign of imminent price collapse?

A number of major buildings in Wmburg have sold very well this year, and others have rented out quickly. And several moribund projects are back to life. How is any of that a sign of bad times. Cherry-picking a couple examples doesn't invalidate the very obvious trend.

Whether people like Wmburg or not, or buy into the buzz, is personal. But I can tell you from personal experience, having people come over to Wmburg, and just walking around the new waterfront, tons of people are just blown away by how nice it is. Period. People frequently leave thinking they should look into living in Wmburg.

Finally, I think the more the merrier is generally the case in Wmburg in that as more people live there it becomes more attractive to people, seems less out of the way, and has more infrastructure conveniences.

NYC real estate in general may be overvalued but on a relative basis Wmburg seems like a bargain given the proximity to Manhattan, the low cc in many buildings, the amenities in many buildings, and fun vibe (which some, not all, perceive).

as we speak I am preparing to visit a close friend who has relocated to Billyburg.
First time to see the new place.
The friend is a 49 year old professional with a well known successful business here in Manhattan. Until now he was a life long resident of the UWS living in one of those rent control prizes. Recently his life long ambition to remain a bachelor was crushed by a women. A women in need of space, REAL SPACE. A recent visit to Billyburg to visit the divorced children of a friend ignited his interest. Tomorrow you can look forward to my personal review of life in Billyburg for the 'almost normal' population amongst us.
( My friend=no tattoos/no piercings/excellent personal hygine/best education money can buy.)

As a prep for my trip I have doubled my life insurance (paying special attention to double indemnity) and in just a moment I'm going to cover my body with a substantial coat of penicillin. Anyone know what kind of shots you need??? Needless to say I will be wearing my tag indicating radon/radiation absorption rates.
I haven't been this excited since I found that gold ticket in a chocolate bar and won a tour of Three Mile Island.

Angelo, to address some of your points:

"As for 10,000 units, yes 10,000 new units were approved for Williamsburg and Greenpoint."
There is a slight difference between saying, as you did, "over 10,000 brand new units were built in Williamsburg" and "10,000 units were planned for Williamsburg and Greenpoint." Forgetting that you casually slipped a whole 'nother neighborhood in there, while there was a lot of planning and approval after the rezoning, they haven't built quite that many units. Don't get me wrong, there's been a lot, but Rose Plaza is all but scrapped and Domino hasn't even started yet. As has been mentioned earlier, the largest projects (by far) have been NSP and the Edge. Not quite the same order of magnitude.

"this is not the only new building falling apart already."
As with all new construction around the city (and country for all I know), there are some developers that cut a few too many corners. Having seen 91 Met personally, I can tell you it isn't quite "falling apart" though it's clear that a good amount of work is needed to fix those leaks. There's a handful of buildings with significant issues, but this tends to get exaggerated in the blogs and media. How many more do you know of?

"Great job brokers. I commend you all"
Please. While there are some good brokers around, the market's success has little to do with them. The rezoning, proximity to Manhattan, restaurants/nightlife, art/music scene is responsible. Not Corcoran, et al.

"http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/111-kent-now-available-as-rental"
Have you seen the asking rents? Nuts. And somehow, I think they'll get them. 184 Kent did. 34 Berry did. 175 Kent did. I do think the luck will run out at some point though.

"Bottom line, If your buying a home to live in and you love the area, and you can afford it, well then you just made a great purchase, no matter which area you buy in."
Not necessarily.

"Just do your research, dont just listen to your broker blab about how many new restaurants just opened"
Finally something I agree with.

Angelo, to address some of your points:

"As for 10,000 units, yes 10,000 new units were approved for Williamsburg and Greenpoint."
There is a slight difference between saying, as you did, "over 10,000 brand new units were built in Williamsburg" and "10,000 units were planned for Williamsburg and Greenpoint." Forgetting that you casually slipped a whole 'nother neighborhood in there, while there was a lot of planning and approval after the rezoning, they haven't built quite that many units. Don't get me wrong, there's been a lot, but Rose Plaza is all but scrapped and Domino hasn't even started yet. As has been mentioned earlier, the largest projects (by far) have been NSP and the Edge. Not quite the same order of magnitude.

"this is not the only new building falling apart already."
As with all new construction around the city (and country for all I know), there are some developers that cut a few too many corners. Having seen 91 Met personally, I can tell you it isn't quite "falling apart" though it's clear that a good amount of work is needed to fix those leaks. There's a handful of buildings with significant issues, but this tends to get exaggerated in the blogs and media. How many more do you know of?

"Great job brokers. I commend you all"
Please. While there are some good brokers around, the market's success has little to do with them. The rezoning, proximity to Manhattan, restaurants/nightlife, art/music scene is responsible. Not Corcoran, et al.

"http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/111-kent-now-available-as-rental"
Have you seen the asking rents? Nuts. And somehow, I think they'll get them. 184 Kent did. 34 Berry did. 175 Kent did. I do think the luck will run out at some point though.

"Bottom line, If your buying a home to live in and you love the area, and you can afford it, well then you just made a great purchase, no matter which area you buy in."
Not necessarily.

"Just do your research, dont just listen to your broker blab about how many new restaurants just opened"
Finally something I agree with.

"that is the EXACT place the richest of the rich who can live anywhere live."

Who ever said that I was the "richest of the rich who can live anywhere"?

In fact, Warren Buffett lives in Omaha, and the Waltons live in Benton, Arkansas.

Bill Gates lives in Seattle.

Carlos Slim lives in Mexico City.

Oprah lives in Chicago.

You know what? Chicago is "actually where my poorer cousins all moved"

You're an ass, Ediot. A real ass.

"that is the EXACT place the richest of the rich who can live anywhere live."

Who ever said that I was the "richest of the rich who can live anywhere"?

In fact, Warren Buffett lives in Omaha, and the Waltons live in Benton, Arkansas.

Bill Gates lives in Seattle.

Carlos Slim lives in Mexico City.

Oprah lives in Chicago.

You know what? Chicago is "actually where my poorer cousins all moved"

You're an ass, Ediot. A real ass.

Oh, and btw, for those who feel more comfortable with a broker representing them in negotiations, that's fine, but if you come from a profession or just have personal experience with negotiating, you for sure get a better discount in price when dealing directly with the large developers. It's simple dollars and cents from the developers perspective. Brokers have zero to do with hyping wmburg.

"steve enjoys "having fun" up until you start poking fun at his particulars."

I'm not usually so prescient, but this one was pretty easy. Dish, but can't take it, Stevey.

Bingo.

Both of the idiot Steves.... start threads calling folks out by name, throw out insults... ... and then complain when it comes back their way (though ironically, Steve is still the only one name calling here).

well, except for that last one... ;-)

From now on I'm going to be nice. So nice, in fact, that I'm graying out Ediot Wilson, leaving him with this lonely thought: I have so many relatives in Broward County that, by sheer coincidence, my father's brother is my mother's brother's mailman.

Case closed. From now on, though, I'm going to be nice. No more reading SWE. No more reading bjw. No more reading LICC. No more reading Juice.

The temptation is far too great.....

rkerrnyclon, Imminent price collapse and the area plummeting are a bit excessive. But the post title did get your attention, and that was also the point. I have several clients who now live there or who bought there and they want out. While this isnt representative of everyone who lives there now, it made me think how can this area command such high price if it doesn't offer what these other areas do. Is the future value of the neighborhood already priced in?

Bjw, even if there are only 5000 units built now, 5000 are still coming, and while it includes greenpoint, that is A LOT of units. How will the extra supply effect the market when they do hit?
how fast is everything being absorbed?
111 Kent went rental because the new owners who bought it from a failed developer, didn't think it made sense to sell now. Rentals are strong in the area and in brooklyn over all. I think this can only sustain if manhattan rents continue to rise. Once it becomes the same price to live in brooklyn as manhattan, people will flock back to manhattan.

These factors could cause prices to come down.
Until all these issues and all the inventory is sorted out and we know which buildings are really going to be rental and stay rental, I wouldn't invest in the area unless I was a developer. Then i would buy buildings and lots from other developers who bought and built at the peak. Would i rent there if it accommodated my lifestyle? Yes.

"Case closed. From now on, though, I'm going to be nice. No more reading SWE. No more reading bjw. No more reading LICC. No more reading Juice."

You said that months ago. But seriously, what happened to "can't you let people have some fun?"

angeloz
5 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse rkerrnyclon, Imminent price collapse and the area plummeting are a bit excessive. But the post title did get your attention, and that was also the point. I have several clients who now live there or who bought there and they want out. While this isnt representative of everyone who lives there now, it made me think how can this area command such high price if it doesn't offer what these other areas do. Is the future value of the neighborhood already priced in?

Bjw, even if there are only 5000 units built now, 5000 are still coming, and while it includes greenpoint, that is A LOT of units. How will the extra supply effect the market when they do hit?
how fast is everything being absorbed?
111 Kent went rental because the new owners who bought it from a failed developer, didn't think it made sense to sell now. Rentals are strong in the area and in brooklyn over all. I think this can only sustain if manhattan rents continue to rise. Once it becomes the same price to live in brooklyn as manhattan, people will flock back to manhattan.

These factors could cause prices to come down.
Until all these issues and all the inventory is sorted out and we know which buildings are really going to be rental and stay rental, I wouldn't invest in the area unless I was a developer. Then i would buy buildings and lots from other developers who bought and built at the peak. Would i rent there if it accommodated my lifestyle? Yes.

Most of these posters weren't responding to your post at all---they're just bickering with each other to prove to themselves how cool they are.

On another note, you spelled "plummet" wrong.

Angelo,
I sense your frustration arises from the fact that your clients, who are normally the Brooklyn Heights / DUMBO variety, are now asking to see apartments in Williamsburg, and since your firm does not work in Williamsburg, you are potentially losing them as clients. The problem isn't that Williamsburg is overpriced (which it may be, but that is not your problem) - your problem is that you are clinging to an image of Williamsburg that is several years old. The waterfront area of Williamsburg is NOTHING like it was even 6 months ago due to the influx of new residents at the Edge and NSP. And those residents (me, excluded) tend to be high to very high-income. Just to give you an idea of how much the neighborhood has changed, the EDGE parking lot has two Ferraris, a Rolls Royce and the remainder are almost all Porsches, Mercedes Benz, BMWs and Lexus. Those are the people who are buying the $1 mil and $2 mil apartments, many with cash.

Now I have no doubt that you have clients from Williamsburg who are looking to get out and into brownstone Brooklyn. Some people are moving because they don't like the way the neighborhood is changing - some believe it is becoming too gentrified because of all the money rolling in. They don't like the Duane Reades and CVSs. These tend to be the people who moved to Williamsburg several years ago, who are older and may have kids already, they are looking more a more stable neighborhood with better schools, so the natural choice would be Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, etc. The fact that you are seeing these people as clients in no way supports the notion that Williamsburg is overpriced. It merely reflects that people have families and change their priorities, and that Williamsburg is changing. Though not there yet, I believe there will be a day when Williamsburg is family-friendly.

Anyway, getting back to my original point, Angelo, rather than venting your frustration through a post about how Williamsburg is overpriced, you would be better served by updating your knowledge of Williamsburg and developing some contacts because I assure you that more and more of your clients who are moving out of Manhattan to Brooklyn, are going to be asking you about Williamsburg, especially those who are moving for more space but do not want to give up the city life by moving to NJ or CT.

"how can this area command such high price if it doesn't offer what these other areas do"
Angelo, what does Dumbo offer that Williamsburg doesn't? Just curious on your thoughts here as you guys market a condo at 40x.

"Bjw, even if there are only 5000 units built now, 5000 are still coming, and while it includes greenpoint, that is A LOT of units."
I haven't done the math, but are there even 5k units out there now? I'm not so sure. And if you keep expanding the boundaries of the area in question, yes, you'll eventually get there. Lump in Greenpoint, East Williamsburg, Bushwick, and so on, and you're talking about a pretty huge area. The "crazy valuations" I suspect you're referring to though, really point to the developments around the Bedford stop. I'd like to see how you get to 5k units there, let alone 10k.

"How will the extra supply effect the market when they do hit? how fast is everything being absorbed?"
No question extra supply will keep pricing down. The point is, there's some serious exaggeration as to the numbers, and consequently some exaggeration as to the effect.

"111 Kent went rental because the new owners who bought it from a failed developer, didn't think it made sense to sell now. Rentals are strong in the area and in brooklyn over all. I think this can only sustain if manhattan rents continue to rise. Once it becomes the same price to live in brooklyn as manhattan, people will flock back to manhattan."
Agree with much of this. Makes more sense to rent these units for the time being, as the rents are quite high. As I said, don't think it's totally sustainable. And people will only "flock back" to Manhattan if they prefer the neighborhoods. I don't see Williamsburg rents ever catching up to the West Village, Tribeca, UWS, UES, or other prime Manhattan areas. But I can totally see them being on par and perhaps even a bit higher than some of the less desirable nabes, simply because there's plenty of attractions here from an amenities/attractions standpoint.

"I wouldn't invest in the area unless I was a developer"
Honestly, I wouldn't want investment property pretty much anywhere in this city right now. Pretty crappy returns.

"Case closed. From now on, though, I'm going to be nice. No more reading SWE. No more reading bjw. No more reading LICC. No more reading Juice."

I love how Steve misses the irony that he just this weekend picked fights (calling out by name) with the two people he just said he now wants to grey out... and he's done the same to juice in the past.

Exactly what SteveF has done...

bjw, I guess proximity to the city and water views will always bump up the price in any area. Im not going to even compare dumbo to billyburg. Its really apples to oranges and lifestyle preferences at the end of the day...However if i compare transportation among each area, DUMBO has more trains and bridge access and brooklyn heights is really what perks dumbo up because of all the transportation access there. Isnt is all about location? but hip is hip and i think thats what drives Billyburg up.

My point on the inventory is that we dont know. I feel like everyday i get a new email from Apts & lofts or corcoran about some new Williamsburg, East williamsburg development. And it always starts with "New Condo being offers" , 6months later the headline is "New Rentals, take your pick" collect your own fee...lol

"Honestly, I wouldn't want investment property pretty much anywhere in this city right now. Pretty crappy returns."
I'm with you here, returns are horrible, risk is high, stock market looks much better having come down recently.

findmeahome, i'm not frustrated , I lose customers to all types of other areas. The worst is New Jersey. As brokers you develop duck feathers. I'm writing because I was shocked when i saw how much people were paying to live in williamsburg. So i question the valuation, especially with all the problems i read about. It is true, it has been changing rapidly and i do need to educate myself on the new additions to the area. However i wont ever jump ship and start working the burg. We specialize and my clients come to me because i do. I only work with people who want to be in my area. Nothing against billy burg, and i didnt want this post to come out as a negative against the area, just a negative against the pricing. I'm glad it started this "discussion" or rants , whatever, I learned a lot and maybe I'll buy there.....once all the glut of inventory and lawsuits settle.

I am perhaps confused by a real estate broker talking DOWN real estate. Especially in the same city (and borough) in which they operate.

I cannot imagine a Beverly Hills broker saying "West Hollywood and Bel-Air real estate are over priced and will CRASH!!!!!!

"FYI Real Gay Men Don't Play Golf."

Actually the golf cart comment had nothing to do with golf. I saw some show (60 minutes, Sunday Morning or something like that) that did a story on old people in Florida that drive around in tricked out golf carts ( Corvettes, Hummers, etc) Was picturing steve driving to the grocery store in his tricked out Fire Island golf cart.

No more reading Juice? Ha steve. You can't quit me

well ypu dont understand ny real estate jason, but we know that.

I've noticed a proliferation of new threads with misspelled headlines. Anyone from Socialist, to Falcoidiot1, to several "first time" posters.

>I cannot imagine a Beverly Hills broker saying "West Hollywood and Bel-Air real estate are over priced and will CRASH!!!!!!

Are those parts of Queens?

Some of the best restauranteurs and chefs have been successful in Williamsburg. And others are coming.

"One of the most fashionable new restaurant openings of late summer is Isa, the new rustic chic Williamsburg venture from Taavo Somer, owner of The Rusty Knot, Freemans restaurant and Freemans Sporting Goods."

"Jason Denton's Betto leaves the panini in Manhattan in favor of a rotating roster of bruschette and small plates."

"Nate Smith, the chef who left The Spotted Pig has a new restaurant called Allswell in the works in Williamsburg."

And the salon Tommy Guns will be opening a salon on N. 3rd.

I guess all of these successful businessmen and women failed to do any market research/due diligence and are wrong in believing the neighborhood could grow (and not plummet) to support meals beyond Subway and $75 men's haircuts.

Yeah but what does good nightlife and restaurants have to do with a good place to live?

Ever heard - don't shit where you eat?