Williamsburg Is Over Priced and Will Plumet

"Im not going to even compare dumbo to billyburg. Its really apples to oranges"

Angelo, really? Aren't you the same guy who said this:

"many people looking for that converted loft in DUMBO also look in Williamsburg to get that kind loft"

So which is it? Sounds like a bunch of your clients may be interested in the neighborhood because it offers similar things: proximity to Manhattan and a waterfront, new construction or converted warehouse/loft space, and a local art scene.

"DUMBO has more trains and bridge access"

Not really. Dumbo's got the F train and a somewhat unpleasant walk to the A/C. Also got the East River Ferry, and yes bridge access. Williamsburg's got the L, J/Z, and M trains. And the East River Ferry (two stops actually), and bridge access as well. Neither neighborhood is totally optimal, but I'd take Williamsburg transportation by virtue of the L vs F alone.

"My point on the inventory is that we dont know. I feel like everyday i get a new email"

I think the point is you don't know. But that doesn't mean others aren't paying more attention. This is why hard data would better suit this conversation rather than the vague feelings people get about, of all things, real estate inventory.

bjw2103,

I'm disappointed your entertaining this "real estate agent."

huntersburg: The original poster states that "Wiiliamsburg is overpriced and will plummet." If Williamsburg is so overpriced then why does the population continue to grow? The opening of higher end restaurants and businesses may be an indicator that Williamsburg is not expected to plummet (at least according to some smart successful people) and can support a population that feels $650-$800 / SF is not overpriced.

It's not so bad - besides, a lot of people think as he does. That's one of the reasons I've always liked this site - locals can get into great detail about the neighborhoods they frequent. And I know you're one of us!

BillyRes, to be fair, $650-800 is a bit of a wide range, although one that makes sense when you factor in buildings with Manhattan views and such. But I agree - not so long ago, people around here were calling for $400 psf, NO $250! Never say never of course, but let's not pretend that if things got that bad that it would be an isolated event in this city.

Overpriced means one can't afford because the price is out of their range. I thought the W'Burg knock down, drag outs ended months ago.

> Williamsburg's got the L, J/Z, and M trains

What are those? What about the Red, Green and Blue trains?

Angelo......DUMBO is noisy and just so so train access. The train access isn't a deal breaker but the NOISE is....... trains on the manhattan bridge and traffic on the BK and Manhattan bridges are UNbearable.

Jake David ... forgive me ... are you Jim Hones?

"I haven't been this excited since I found that gold ticket in a chocolate bar and won a tour of Three Mile Island."

Very funny, falco.

So I think I can sum up the issue as follows. Angelo think the problem w/ Willliamsburg is that there is a crapload of inventory and new construction, with few limits on supply, unlike DUMBO. He thinks the supply issue protects DUMBO pricing. On the other side, people don't seem to place much of a premium on living in DUMBO vs. Williamsburg (in aggregate). They seem to view them as relatively fungible, as Angelo's loft clients seem to be doing.

Angelo, I'm not very familiar with DUMBO, I've been there only a few times. Nice neighborhood. But why should it command (using median list ppsf from SE) 85% of Manhattan prices? While Williamsburg should not be at 70%? What makes DUMBO so special?

Inonda, That is a correct summation, however i am not comparing billy burg to dumbo. What made me ask this question were the clients coming to be from williamsburg and they want to move out. I'm getting more and more of them everyday. In general when people from manhattan start looking in brooklyn thats when they ask hows williamsburg and dumbo etc..
If i were to compare the prices of the water front property in williamsburg then it would compare to the prices in dumbo, which is a very small area anyway. Williamsburg is huge, and thats why the median prices will always be less than dumbo because of all the smaller buildings, townhouses, etc.
Dumbo has seen its share of problems, and there are some units overpriced here. I will agree with that. I remember before the crash there were some issues with some of the new development, but the area never over built, so it sustained and grew over the last few years.

bjw, get real we ALL know DUMBO is nothing like Williamsburg. Yes people from manhattan may look in both areas, but they are completely different in terms of demo/lifestyle/and location. Dont turn this thread into which neighborhood is better, that is a pointless discussion. I dont have to try hard to discern all the data, yes there are units in the pipeline for the next 10 years in williamsburg, but we can forget about that for your argument sake. I sent you articles on recent findings, i am not cherry picking. Do you really want me to go back to 2006 and show you all the mess williamsburg has been in? when did you start doing real estate there last week? have you ever been on streeteasy to see there are still sponsor units for sale from 2007. how much appreciation has the residential real estate seen since then? bottom line if you ever talked to an appraiser, bankrupt buildings and foreclosed properties along with condos turning rental aren't good for real estate appreciation.

Also, "the rentals did great", they were built to sell!!! They didnt do great, they rented, big deal, this is NYC it is easy to rent in NYC, more people can afford to rent than to buy.

angeloz,

The more you write, the more obvious it becomes you don't know Williamsburg.

bjw2103, BillyRes, and most others including myself have bought in Williamsburg and have been following the Williamsburg market closely for YEARS.

Did you know the following buildings have sold out in the past 1-2 years (post-bubble): 125 N 10th, 214 N 11th, 5 Roebling, 70 Berry, 69 Berry, 135 N 9th, 101 N 5th, 90 N 5th, 14 Hope?
Did you know that the largest developments are now 70-90% sold since closings began over the past 1-2 years (The Edge, NSP2, 80 Met)? Did you know that NSP1 sold out earlier this year (about 150 units)?

Do you know that there are 3 separate, very distinct, and very different submarkets (N Williamsburg, E Williamsburg, and S Williamsburg (and then there's Greenpoint))?

If you don't know these developments and how FAST they have sold POST-BUBBLE, I don't think you can make an educated judgement on the state of Williamsburg.

I've been saying this for years.

Horrible location; inconvenient to anywhere else in Brooklyn, and any place outside the 14th Street corridor in Manhattan.

Butt-ugly architecture (and I use the term "architecture" loosely here).

Very few amenities (when "C-Town" is your best grocery store option, you're in big trouble).

Its funny. Somone who lives in WaHeights slamming Wburg.

"bjw, get real we ALL know DUMBO is nothing like Williamsburg. Yes people from manhattan may look in both areas, but they are completely different in terms of demo/lifestyle/and location."

Angelo, you're speaking for everyone now? Your own clients are indicating to you that the neighborhoods have a lot in common, so stating that Dumbo "is nothing like Williamsburg" sounds kinda desperate to me. Hate to have to repeat myself, but we're talking about Brooklyn waterfront neighborhoods directly across from downtown Manhattan, whose housing stock consists largely of condos (whether new construction or conversion), and where there are thriving arts/music scenes. How much more similar can you get? It's not about which neighborhood is "better" at all, but you have yet to explain what makes Dumbo so "completely different."

"I sent you articles on recent findings, i am not cherry picking. Do you really want me to go back to 2006 and show you all the mess williamsburg has been in?"

You did cherry pick - what's the mess from 2006 you're referring to? IIRC, that was actually a pretty good year for the neighborhood. 2009 was a bit dicier, as it was around the city.

"when did you start doing real estate there last week? have you ever been on streeteasy to see there are still sponsor units for sale from 2007."

Yeah, last week. I've been on StreetEasy for years - where have you been? Curiously, the OP seems to be one of your first posts. How many sponsor units are still for sale from 07? Enlighten us. 5,000? Without numbers, your arguments carry little weight.

"how much appreciation has the residential real estate seen since then? bottom line if you ever talked to an appraiser, bankrupt buildings and foreclosed properties along with condos turning rental aren't good for real estate appreciation."

Since 2007? None. You want to tell me there's been appreciation in Dumbo since 07?

"Do you know that there are 3 separate, very distinct, and very different submarkets (N Williamsburg, E Williamsburg, and S Williamsburg (and then there's Greenpoint))?"

LookPied, absolutely. And if you want to compare to Dumbo, the northside is really what you should be looking at, not to mention what Angelo was inadvertently referring to since he's been talking about high valuations. The other areas are fine, just less desirable to most.

"Horrible location; inconvenient to anywhere else in Brooklyn, and any place outside the 14th Street corridor in Manhattan."

Matt, something terrible must have happened to you in Williamsburg, because you can't seem to let go. It's actually "convenient" to get to Greenpoint, Dumbo, Brooklyn Heights, and Bushwick, all of which are in Brooklyn last I checked. The much maligned G train is even direct to Bed Stuy, Clinton Hill, Fort Greene, downtown, Cobble Hill, and Carroll Gardens. Yes, getting to Park Slope is a real pain. But I'd rather have easy access to the East Village, Union Square, and the West Village any day.

"Very few amenities (when "C-Town" is your best grocery store option, you're in big trouble)."

You are horribly misinformed.

bjw, Are you telling me that the problems with the NYC real estate market and the local williamsburg problems are already priced into that market? so its a buy now?

I am not arguing if its a great place to live or a great neighborhood. I'm sure it is for some people. Will you put your money where your mouth is and buy now in williamsburg?

"bjw, Are you telling me that the problems with the NYC real estate market and the local williamsburg problems are already priced into that market? so its a buy now?"

Where did you infer that from any of my statements? I think the vast majority of property values in Manhattan and Brooklyn are being artificially held up. That's not news to most around here. I don't know what you mean to ask by "it's a buy now." Every property is priced differently, so the answer changes depending on the property. Overall, no, not many great buys out there.

"Will you put your money where your mouth is and buy now in williamsburg?"

Already did. I have no appreciation to show for it thus far. But let's get back to what made you post here - do you honestly think there's been appreciation in Dumbo? What makes the neighborhood so "completely different"?

"Matt, something terrible must have happened to you in Williamsburg, because you can't seem to let go. It's actually "convenient" to get to Greenpoint, Dumbo, Brooklyn Heights, and Bushwick, all of which are in Brooklyn last I checked. The much maligned G train is even direct to Bed Stuy, Clinton Hill, Fort Greene, downtown, Cobble Hill, and Carroll Gardens. Yes, getting to Park Slope is a real pain. But I'd rather have easy access to the East Village, Union Square, and the West Village any day."

***

Yes. I lived there.

And the G train is not an option. WALKING is a faster option than the G train.

plowjop bought in billy at the very peak--now slurping desperately

"WALKING is a faster option than the G train."

Ok, let's make a little wager on that. We can both start at the Metropolitan Ave G stop and race to, I don't know, Carroll St. You'll be on foot, and I'll take the G train. Whoever loses owes the winner $10k. Deal?

An advantage people forget to mention for Wmsbrg, DUMBO and Bklyn Hts is that if all subways and busses fail, you can walk across a nearby bridge. It's not as good as being on Manhattan, but it's better than LIC or Greenpoint, where you're stuck if the train's not running, or Hoboken.

Look, if anyone doubts Wmsbrg's nightlife, just try getting there via subway on a Saturday or Friday night. The platform at Union Square is so packed that you may have to take the L east to Eighth Avenue just to get a place to stand going west to Brooklyn. It's a two-edged sword, though. Bklyn Hts and Cobble Hill and CUMBO have more options. Wmsbrg is a little like being in parts of Qns that have only one train line, though a much longer hike to the bridge.

"CUMBO" s/b "DUMBO" - sorry

lowery, hilarious Freudian slip. But seriously, I think you're unaware of the transportation options in Williamsburg. There are several train lines. And more cabs than any outer borough nabe I'm aware of.

"There are several train lines."

TWO is not "several".

***

"And more cabs than any outer borough nabe I'm aware of."

You apparently don't get out much.

"TWO is not "several"."

No, but FOUR is: L, J/Z, M, G.

"You apparently don't get out much."

Name one. And how much time do you actually spend in Williamsburg since you hate it so much? So either you're a masochist or you have no idea what you're talking about.

And Matt, no response to the bet?

Depending on where you live in Williamsburg, you don't have ALL FOUR trains within walking distance; you're lucky if you have ONE.

And here's ONE neighborhood that has more cabs than most MANHATTAN neighborhoods: BROOKLYN HEIGHTS. Every single cab that goes into Brooklyn (or to JFK) eventually goes through Brooklyn Heights to get back to Manhattan. It's a steady parade of available cabs on Clinton Street 24/7.

I lived in Williamsburg. I served my sentence. I've been back a few times (very reluctantly) quite recently. It's still a toilet.

but lowery, assuming an occurrence of appropriate magnitude to shut down public transportation into manhattan, you wouldn't be going there anyway. in fact, when they accidentally release upon manhattan the experimental virus making turning people into flesh eating zombies, those in areas not easily accessible from the island will be safest. food for thought.

"Depending on where you live in Williamsburg, you don't have ALL FOUR trains within walking distance; you're lucky if you have ONE."

Matt, you're wrong, plain and simple. What do you consider walking distance? 100 yards? How lazy are you? Everyone in Williamsburg is close to at least one of those trains, especially in the area this thread's been discussing. But really, your lament could easily apply to most places in Manhattan, especially the entire East Side.

"Every single cab that goes into Brooklyn (or to JFK) eventually goes through Brooklyn Heights to get back to Manhattan. It's a steady parade of available cabs on Clinton Street 24/7."

True, that is a major cab throughfare, but Clinton St by itself is not a neighborhood. There's a couple major cab routes in Williamsburg, not to mention Northside Car Service which is actually quite dependable. But please, stay out of the neighborhood - we're glad not to have you.

Still not taking the G train bet I guess? I'll have to accept that as a total retraction on your part then.

wow your pompoms are getting all sticky and yucky

It's a shame that a Brooklyn broker is so uninformed. I would never choose either locations, but Williamsburg would be my choice over DUMBO. There's just too much noise and air pollution in DUMBO to have a decent quality of life. Cars and trucks are driven above you with soot coming down from the bridge.

Do clue me into how DUMBO is better.

Bjw, I commend you, atleast your honest, and you believe in your product.
I asked because my thread was that Williamsburg is going down in price, and you say its so great its going Up or poised to go up. So if its going Up, when should i buy there? wouldnt now be the time since its selling like hot cakes? Its all timing, so when is the time? Its easy to champion the nice developments on bedford and the water front, but i saw a bunch in the south side looked half built and they were so far from the train i might as well live in red hook. As for DUMBO, yes it did appreciate since 2006-07. If you bought then and sold now, you made money. Of course there are some exceptions, but overall the neighborhood went up in price per foot on the rentals and sales across the board.
Full disclosure, I own several units in bk heights and dumbo and I live in bk heights, and I love my neighborhood, almost as much as you love williamsburg.

"and you say its so great its going Up or poised to go up."

Angelo, where did I say anything like "it's going up or poised to go up"? Don't make things up - it ain't honest discussion.

"Its all timing, so when is the time?"

Depends on your goals. If it's a pure investment, not now. Maybe not ever in our lifetimes for all I know. And contrary to the belief that "it's all timing" I strongly disagree. It's all pricing. And as a broker, you should know not all properties are priced the same.

"but i saw a bunch in the south side looked half built and they were so far from the train i might as well live in red hook"

Half built as in totally abandoned or in mid-construction? If the former, some addresses would be helpful. A lot of projects that were stalled for a while are back up and running, if not already completed. As for the trains, you're aware of the J/Z and M trains, right? Amazing how many people seem uninformed about their own city's subway system.

"As for DUMBO, yes it did appreciate since 2006-07. If you bought then and sold now, you made money."

Show some comps. Miller Samuel data for Northwest Brooklyn (which unfortunately includes a TON of other neighborhoods other than Dumbo) goes back to Q1 2007. Median price then = $625k. Median price now = $669k (up from $589k last quarter). If you factor in transaction costs (especially on new construction), I don't think you make money on a resale as of now.

I beg to differ, Real Estate is ALL timing, because if im around at the right time, I will get the right price, as a buyer and seller. Obviously all units aren't priced the same, but Im talking about if you are a seller what made you get the higest price? its the timing of the year you sold.
I wasnt quoting you, i was just deducting from all your arguments on how great the area is and how much its growing, if its growing and selling like hot cakes, like you claim all these building are selling out fast, well then shouldnt it go up in value? atleast maybe in 5 years, Oh no but now you have to be an honest broker and say " If it's a pure investment, not now. Maybe not ever in our lifetimes for all I know" Can i put this quote on my website, to warn all the investors who want to even look into williamburg?
You need to start a new thread "Williamburg will not Plummet , it will only stay flat for the next 50 years" this is what you are arguing to me about? Im talking valuation and you cant even say its a good value at these current prices? if they were, it would be a buy...

Im not going to do closed sales comps for you, do your own homework. The area went up even when you include all the downtown brooklyn inventory and the co-ops in bk heights. I never said it went up 20%, but it appreciated slow and steady like good real estate should, can the same claim be made for williamsburg? will we ever make that claim for williamsburg? I think its 10 years out before it ALL settles, and I mean the whole country (maybe 15). These up and coming areas cannot continue to go up without the rest of the country doing well.

I have to say I enjoyed "CUMBO".

The Gee-It's-Finally-Here line is known to be the worst in the city.

I just don't see the raison d'etre of the place, and walking under the Willy B. is frightening.

"I beg to differ, Real Estate is ALL timing"

So when it comes down to it, you care more about timing or pricing? I know they are not mutually exclusive, but let's be honest about what really matters in the end.

"i was just deducting from all your arguments on how great the area is and how much its growing, if its growing and selling like hot cakes, like you claim all these building are selling out fast, well then shouldnt it go up in value?"

Stop "deducting." And making up crap about how I've supposedly said things are "selling like hot cakes." There are certainly issues with the neighborhood (I highlighted them earlier in the thread) and with purchasing real estate here. Same goes for anywhere in the city.

"Oh no but now you have to be an honest broker and say " If it's a pure investment, not now. Maybe not ever in our lifetimes for all I know" Can i put this quote on my website, to warn all the investors who want to even look into williamburg?"

I ain't no broker. And I have no idea about future appreciation for any neighborhood in the city, which is what was talking about - not specifically Williamsburg. So if you put it in proper context, then actually yes, PLEASE do put that on your website. I'd love to see that one.

"Im talking valuation and you cant even say its a good value at these current prices? if they were, it would be a buy..."

I can't point to a single neighborhood in the city and say uniformly, it's a good value and these current prices. Can you? Because I call bs broker babble on that. Especially when you're marketing a condo at 40x.

"Im not going to do closed sales comps for you, do your own homework."

YOU made the claim - I just asked you to back it up. And this is your profession AND the neighborhood you specialize in. You'd think it'd be easy to pull out a couple comps to demonstrate your expertise and whatnot. Listen, I'm one of the last guys to engage in rampant broker bashing, but you're really not making it easy here. As a couple others pointed out, you're just coming off as someone who's maybe a little bitter he's losing business to another, similar neighborhood.

"The Gee-It's-Finally-Here line is known to be the worst in the city."

According to Straphangers, the 2 and C are the worst in the city.

"walking under the Willy B. is frightening."

Some people scare easy.

bjw, you are funny, I never made any claim, you asked if DUMBO appreciated and i said yes, then you went to miller samuel which showed the appreciation across all my areas in downtown brooklyn, and then you come back with a bs excuse, " If you factor in transaction costs (especially on new construction), I don't think you make money on a resale as of now". You just admitted and showed me data that the area went up. You asked if the area appreciated, not if i made a killing reselling. I've worked with developers in williamsburg who got their heads cut off, and customers are coming to me FROM williamsburg, i am not losing anyone TO williamsburg. Trust me, i came on here to warn all you williamsburg fanboys. You think someone would thank me, oh, half the thread already did. You welcome guys, falco & jim hones, you had the best comments, bjw, you had the most fight, but in the end we are both right, the area aint going up no time soon and your mad you pissed your money away, so you defend it even when its not strong, great investment bud. Im sure you got it for a great price, just at the wrong time.

I think the next thread will be DUMBO vs WILLIAMSBURG , then we can go all out...how about that?

"you asked if DUMBO appreciated and i said yes"

Angelo, come on, a couple comps from the neighborhood you work in. Too much to ask? Frankly, you should have those off the top of your head, or at least saved somewhere. Some broker you are.

"and then you come back with a bs excuse, " If you factor in transaction costs (especially on new construction), I don't think you make money on a resale as of now""

Transaction costs are bs? Let's do the math, then:

Purchase price = $625k
Sale price = $669k

So that's $44k in "profit!" But wait, forgot to factor in these fun things:

On the purchase:
NYC transfer tax = $8.9k
NYS transfer tax = $2.5k
Mortgage recording tax = $12k
Attorney fees (buyer and sponsor) = $3k
Title insurance, search, fees = $3k
Other fees = $1k

On the sale:
NYC transfer tax = $9.5k
NYS transfer tax = $2.7k
Attorney fees = $1.5k
Broker fee (your favorite) = $40k

Your broker fee alone essentially cuts out any chance of "making money" on this awesome Dumbo purchase! Throw in the mansion tax on properties over $1m (there's plenty in Dumbo) and you're looking at a loss of over $40k, net of transaction costs.

"You just admitted and showed me data that the area went up. You asked if the area appreciated, not if i made a killing reselling"

If this is the kind of advice you give your clients, I hope they run. But ignoring that, I technically should have compared like periods (seasonality and all that) - Q1 2007 median price = $625k, Q1 2011 median price = $589k. Not good. But yes, you might say this is representative of a much larger area than just Dumbo. Fine. Which is where you come in with your comps. Won't hold my breath on that one.

"You think someone would thank me, oh, half the thread already did. You welcome guys, falco & jim hones, you had the best comments"

Thank you? For crappy advice? Still haven't explained to us what makes Dumbo so "completely different." Most of the thread actually called you out, btw.

"the area aint going up no time soon and your mad you pissed your money away, so you defend it even when its not strong, great investment bud"

Angelo, there goes what's left of your credibility. Totally baseless ad hominem bullsh!t. Classy broker!

Dumbo is under/between two bridges, which makes it loud and, for those who don't like bridge noise, unliveable.

>It's actually "convenient" to get to Greenpoint

Sign me up

>Whoever loses owes the winner $10k. Deal?

Matt will raid the co-op reserve. But where in hell are you going to find $10K?

>So that's $44k in "profit!" But wait, forgot to factor in these fun things:

So bjw, you mean to tell us that you factored these things into your purchase when you decided to buy at the top of the market in a fringe area with no protective boundaries to prevent sprawl and obvious resultant diminishment of value?

Dumbo offers the most beautiful view of Manhattan. Williamsburg offers the most shitty view of the city. Even LIC offers a better view from the river than Williamsburg. This Lower EastSide Housing complex is a dreadful thing to look at!

"So bjw, you mean to tell us that you factored these things into your purchase when you decided to buy at the top of the market in a fringe area with no protective boundaries to prevent sprawl and obvious resultant diminishment of value?"

hburg, first of all, the sponsor paid the vast majority of my closing costs, which helps. Second, if it makes you feel good about yourself to make claims out of thin air about "buying at the top of the market" (no, though no doubt anyone buying in the last few years hasn't bought at a trough either), "in a fringe area" (no), "with no protective boundaries to prevent sprawl and obvious resultant diminishment of value" (complete gibberish), go nuts. Third, I can't really factor in transaction costs on the sell side since I haven't sold yet (nor plan on it), but I most likely will have to pay those if I do sell. If I did sell now, I'd almost certainly lose money, just like the example I gave above. None of this changes the point that Angelo seems oblivious to, of course.

>hburg, first of all, the sponsor paid the vast majority of my closing costs, which helps.

You are such a good negotiator!

Good for you bjw2103, good for you!

>Third, I can't really factor in transaction costs on the sell side since I haven't sold yet (nor plan on it)

You are going to live in Williamsburg until retirement and beyond?

Ok, I believe you, but I don't envy you.

Good comebacks, hburg! As for living here until retirement and beyond, maybe. But ever heard of renting a condo out? Crazy, I know.

Transportation - bjw, there are all those lines, but the Bedford Avenue station is pretty far from the Marcy Ave. or stop or whatever it is. Barring an invasion of flesh-eating zombies, I think a bearable walk across a nearby bridge is a real plus. People in Bkn Hts like to boast about walking across the Bklyn Bridge, even if they don't do it every day. You can do it in Wmbrg. You can't in Hunter's Point. The walk is a long hike. Weren't the J and Z just rated the best lines in the five boros?

For outerboro inconvenience, try living in Qns on the 7 line when it's being "renovated," which is most of the last 25 years. Oh, yes, this is the LAST renovation. Right. This time they're REALLY going to fix it. Sure.

CUMBO - well, wasn't there a contest a few months back to see who could think of the best real-estate-BS nickname for Williamsburg? How should we spell it?

hburg, 'nada ain't full of crap at all. Besides, my place wouldn't cut it for him.

lowery, it's about a 12-minute walk from North 7/Bedford to the Marcy stop. Of course, most people don't live on top of the Bedford stop and plenty actually live in between the two. So it's a real plus for a lot of residents. Besides, if you're advocating walking across the bridge, where do you think the J/Z and M go across? And yes, Straphangers rated J/Z the best lines in the city. The ferry is another option too.

>hburg, 'nada ain't full of crap at all. Besides, my place wouldn't cut it for him.

No, of course it wouldn't.

Populous Area of Youths (across from) the Lower East Side Sh!thole. PAYLESS.

So now you are better than the Lower East Side?

hburg, your cleverness ain't what it used to be. Ninny.

I admire Angelo's professionalism as a broker! What are you like 19 years old? I'm sure this thread got his phones ringing off the hook with new customers.

touchy touchy bjw, go call the broker that sold you your unit, im sure he will pat you on the back and make you feel better about your purchase. He must be the classiest. I bet he even tried to sell you Jersey City. i dont think he ever explained to you the difference between property appreciation and net profits on a sale.
Again, you asked if the area appreciated in value, and you saw on miller samuel that it did. I can quote you all the sales and break down the net profits, but there is no winning with you, you will then say i am cherry picking again. So go to streeteasy, pay 10 bucks or go to acris its free, and look up 70 washington, 1 main, and 30 main. Have fun...
Just to remind you, my thread isnt "DUMBO is the best", i never came on here to promote dumbo or any of my areas, listings or say its a better purchase. You are deflecting here. All I was trying to do is show how I see the Williamsburg market and the trend of people moving out and why values should come down, You even said they sure arent going up.

Angelo, thanks for the response. Nice to read the discussion / fight between you & bjw. Lots of good info on both sides.

So I looked up 1 Main St since this was the original building I picked up on, and you referred to it as a place where prices are up. It looks like 6A went for $2.8M in early 2008 vs. 10A going for $2.65M this year:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/103568-condo-1-main-st-dumbo-brooklyn
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/520419-condo-1-main-street-dumbo-brooklyn

Given the elevation difference, I'd say that comp is 10+% down, right?

hey inonada,
depending how you calculate it, Its about 5% down, but check out the history;
6A sold originally in
1998 for 487,500
then sold in
2005 for 1.815
Then in
2008 it sold for 2.8 all cash= net profit 900+k.

10 A sold originally in
1998 for (no deed on file) but mortgage out for 200k and with 6A at 487k, I would estimate this sold for between 510-525k.
Next sale date
2011 for 2.65= net profit over 2m

So the 10A seller was a little less greedy than 6A, or maybe more depending on how you look at it, but they both made money and that is what I call appreciation.
Dont tell bjw, he might just explode. I think the example he gave above is more typical of what you see in williamsburg, negative returns...
This is why i say its all about timing. In the last 6 months I have seen some softening in the dumbo list pricing, but it has gone through seasons since 2008 where the sales get stagnant because a certain amount of resales hit the market at the same time, and that softens the prices a little. I dont think this is out of the norm for most neighborhoods since 2008 though. What is out the norm for brooklyn is the ppsf.

the Problem with williamsburg was their starting price points were elevated to 2007 DUMBO levels and there is no margin for appreciation in those prices because majority of product was released since 2007 at the peak and product is still being released. Williamsburg did go through an adjustment period like most emerging neighborhoods. However its still high, If they go up anymore, it will be more expensive than lower manhattan, some buildings already are. This makes no sense when brooklyn is more expensive than Manhattan. I get the trend but it should always be lower, I think the market forces will correct this. Only thing that could stop this correction is a robust economy all across the country and world. If we get that we may see Manhattan Priced like Hong Kong or London one day.

Friend I know paid $650k in 2005. 2 years ago, a similar apt next door sold for $575k. They were worried. Well, this week, that same guy got an offer for $710k. He got paid $135,000 cold hard cash just for apartment sitting. Who needs a job when you can be an owner? In the middle of a so called "recession", no less.

bjw, you are making a good argument for Wmsbrg being better than I had though in terms of transit - a variety of subways on two separate sets of tracks, a pedestrian bridge, and a ferry ($4, though, isn't it) to Wall Street - I dunno, kids, I well remember people predicting Bbrg would crash the hardest of all 'hoods a few years ago because of its being "fringe" etc., etc. blah-blah-blah

Here we are in the last third of year 2011, three years after Armageddon, and I just don't see it. The new condos are all selling well, the rents have not come down, the retail tenants are going more upscale, and I'm reminded more and more of people who in the '80s used to scream, "Listen, not ALL of Columbus Avenue is going to turn into sheeshee restaurants! Poor people have to live SOMEWHERE!" But that list of crime rates in neighborhoods was interesting. We all remember? B'brg did not fare very well. I was shocked that Greenpoint was below it, because back in the day Greenpoint used to be "safe, safe, safe, safe, safe."

Angeloz, I don't get where you are getting 5% from. The 2011 price is 5% below the 2008 price. By your estimate of the original sale price, 10A is 5-8% higher-value than 6A. So I see a 10-13% drop since early 2008. How do you get to 5%?

I understand that Williamsburg has a lot more peak-purchased inventory, but I don't think that matters much in terms of future outlook. The investors who bought 14A in 2007 for $7M, paying $2200 ppsf, are they gonna fare any differently than Williamsburg? Where do you go from there? Just as the 1998 DUMBO buyers realized extra appreciation for neighborhood (beyond the 2.5x marketwide 1998-2007 bubble), so did 1998 Williamsburg buyers.

I think it's a waste of money to pay $8.2M for an apt that you can rent for $17.5K. That's returning essentially 0-1% on cash after accounting for monthlies, upkeep, and transaction costs. I've just got better uses for my cash. I think it's even dumber to pay that kind of money for DUMBO when you can get the same space for the same price in ultra-prime Manhattan -- e.g., direct Central Park view. This is not a case of a theoretical over-priced listing: that apt sold for $2200 ppsf in 2007. Even if it "really" sells for $6.5M & rents for $15K, it's got the issue relative to ultra-prime Manhattan.

I'm not saying that Williamsburg is well-priced relative to Manhattan, or that anything for that matter is well-priced. I'm just saying that the shit in DUMBO stinks just as bad as the shit in Williamsburg. I don't get why Williamsburg should be singled out.

"Depending on where you live in Williamsburg, you don't have ALL FOUR trains within walking distance; you're lucky if you have ONE."

Yeah, its a bit wacky to compare all of Williamsburg to DUMBO, which is several times the size. Noone lives near all the trains.

DUMBO's size becomes an asset here. From 70 Washington, you have 2 blocks to the F, or equivalent of about 4 blocks to the AC through the park. One more block, you get the 23 at Clark. If you go 8 blocks (which you might have to go in WB to get to your first train), you get jay street/borough hall with 2345ACFMR

1 Main, add another block and a half...

"i dont think he ever explained to you the difference between property appreciation and net profits on a sale."

Angelo, you're the guy who said: "As for DUMBO, yes it did appreciate since 2006-07. If you bought then and sold now, you made money." Sounds to me like you're the one conflating appreciation and "making money." Fact of the matter is, if you're telling your clients that their properties have appreciated, they then sell and find out they actually took a net loss, I don't imagine they're going to be thrilled with you.

"All I was trying to do is show how I see the Williamsburg market and the trend of people moving out and why values should come down, You even said they sure arent going up."

Really, there's a "trend" of people moving out? Because a couple people came to you interested in Dumbo? Get real - the opposite is true, as more people are moving in. As for values coming down, you have yet to explain why that should be isolated to Williamsburg. My point all along is that when prices come down, it'll impact all neighborhoods, Dumbo included.

"2011 for 2.65= net profit over 2m"

Who's denying appreciation since 1998? Irrelevant to the discussion here.

"Again, you asked if the area appreciated in value, and you saw on miller samuel that it did."

Miller Samuel also shows appreciation for Williamsburg in the same time period. But net of transaction costs, no real money made there either.

"If they go up anymore, it will be more expensive than lower manhattan, some buildings already are. This makes no sense when brooklyn is more expensive than Manhattan. I get the trend but it should always be lower"

It really isn't higher when you compare similar product - look at new construction prices in Manhattan. Much higher.

"I'm not saying that Williamsburg is well-priced relative to Manhattan, or that anything for that matter is well-priced. I'm just saying that the shit in DUMBO stinks just as bad as the shit in Williamsburg. I don't get why Williamsburg should be singled out."

Exactly. Thanks 'nada.

Angelo, how's this for an ultra-recent comp:

70 Washington 9Q
Bought 07/06 for $880,787
Sold 09/11 for $675,000

Yikes!

Sounds like a Yikes, but the original purchase included a 225k roof top cabana. Was purchased for 655k. Because a roof top cabana is not real property the sale price was added to the deed of the property. He sold it off separately to another unit owner so he was able to sell the 1br without it at market price. Not a huge winner, but not a 26% drop in price. Currently the 1brs in that building have been selling between 660k-725k. Plus the 1brs in 70 arent the most desirable, they are either facing the BQE or direct into another building. the Q line has a huge 3 foot wide concrete beam in the middle of the living room, so that line is a tough sell anyway and always the lowest priced especially on the lower floors.

ionanda, sorry i wasnt clear how you got the 10% but if you factor 5-10% per floor your right. I understand if its not worth paying 8mill for a place. Its not for everyone. Generally when someone buys 1 apartment for 8 million, they dont turn it into a rental. I think someone said earlier in this thread, Rich people dont care about price per square foot, they just buy where ever they want because they can. DUMBO is priced like Manhattan, so its really a lifestyle choice and emotional purchase. I dont quote square footage in dumbo or manhattan. Besides it most likely being wrong on the floorplan, It doesnt make sense because you are not paying for space, you are paying to live in Manhattan. Just as Williamsburg has the "Cool" factor and people want that lifestyle, DUMBO has its own lifestyle it offers and this is where the neighborhoods are completely different.

Also, i wasnt trying to go back to 1998 to show appreciation thats just when the seller bought it and he just sold it in one main. Unless your a sponsor selling, most sellers dont care about keeping comps up, They just want to make money and move on. That seller made a boat load of money, so he doesnt care if he sold for 15k less than an apartment did 2 years before. A sponsor will. They hold up the prices in buildings and will not accept a lower offer, they rather throw in concessions so their closing prices are consistent for the bank and for future buyers.
Either way i dont think any one apartment sold for 2 million more since 1998 in williamsburg. Perhaps land did or a large building, but not one unit. Also you forgot to mention the other seller who bought in 2005 and sold a couple years later for a million more.
That will never happen in williamburg.

Maybe not as much of a yikes, but a definite loss for the seller. And sure, it might not be the most desirable line, but that was all priced in from the get-go, so none of that really matters.

"Rich people dont care about price per square foot, they just buy where ever they want because they can."
That doesn't mean it's a smart/rational financial decision. Isn't that what we're aiming for here?

"DUMBO is priced like Manhattan"
Didn't you say Brooklyn should "always be lower"?

"Just as Williamsburg has the "Cool" factor and people want that lifestyle, DUMBO has its own lifestyle it offers and this is where the neighborhoods are completely different."
Dumbo definitely has a hipness factor to it - I'm not sure how you missed that, or how you've somehow convinced yourself that the lifestyle is "completely different." It really isn't. What do people do in Dumbo? Have tea and crumpets all day while reading Jackie Collins novels? Because then you might be on to something.

"Either way i dont think any one apartment sold for 2 million more since 1998 in williamsburg."

That's because you seem to have mistaken mortgage amount for purchase price. There's no indication of the price on ACRIS for 6A in 1998. The $487k was the mortgage alone - who knows how much they put down? But even if I give you that, you should be well aware that the rezoning in Williamsburg didn't happen til 2005. On top of that, the argument from the get-go has been appreciation since 2007, arguably the peak for both neighborhoods. So you can pimp Dumbo as a buy all you like, but you probably won't fool too many people on this board.

"What do people do in Dumbo? Have tea and crumpets all day while reading Jackie Collins novels? Because then you might be on to something".- lol

DUMBO is less than manhattan because it is in brooklyn, but its priced like Manhattan and Valued as Such. If i were to compare certain condo buildings in DUMBO to some Condo buildings in the FInancial District or Mid-town, DUMBO can be more expensive.

Bjw, if you think DUMBO is just like Williamsburg, I am not going to argue with you. I never said DUMBO doesnt have Hip, it is very trendy but its Not the Party Scene that is Williamsburg.

"That doesn't mean it's a smart/rational financial decision. Isn't that what we're aiming for here?"
This is true, but so is paying 500k for a car or buying your own private Jet. These are luxury purchases, and that is DUMBO, its a luxury purchase, and maybe a value compared to some areas in manhattan.But it is the most expensive area in Brooklyn, I know some buildings else where may have the highest ppsf, but overall DUMBO is the most expensive now, BK heights, then I would say Prime Water front Williamsburg, Prime Park Slope, and Fort Green are the highest priced neighborhoods.

Also, ACRIS does show the sale price, its on the DEED, the mortgage is a seperate document. Look at the DEED for the closing price.
You should become a broker Bjw, you seem to love this more than me and are on streeteasy more than any broker I know. I'm serious, you would do good because of your passion for this knowledge.

Now go ahead and knock my comments...lol..

"Bjw, if you think DUMBO is just like Williamsburg, I am not going to argue with you. I never said DUMBO doesnt have Hip, it is very trendy but its Not the Party Scene that is Williamsburg."

Angelo, last I checked, people do party in Dumbo. I think you have some image in your head that Williamsburg is a non-stop, coke-fueled, street-parade rager. It isn't. Even on weekends, Kent, Wythe, and Berry have about the same traffic you'll find on Front, Water, or Main. So I still don't understand what's so "completely different" about the lifestyles. It's coming off as a throwaway excuse for why Dumbo valuations should be higher. Weird.

"But it is the most expensive area in Brooklyn"

I think a decent amount of that is due to the fact that it's entirely condos (if there are any coops, they're negligible - not a single listing on StreetEasy currently). Williamsburg, until it's properly segmented, is a much larger area with a lot of coops and townhouses remaining, which lowers the ppsf in this comparison.

"but overall DUMBO is the most expensive now, BK heights, then I would say Prime Water front Williamsburg, Prime Park Slope, and Fort Green are the highest priced neighborhoods."

Cobble Hill belongs in there before Ft Greene probably, but yeah, that seems accurate.

"Also, ACRIS does show the sale price, its on the DEED, the mortgage is a seperate document. Look at the DEED for the closing price."

I looked at the deed, don't see a sale price. Could have missed it - what page is it? Either way, I doubt the buyer was allowed to finance 100%.

"You should become a broker Bjw, you seem to love this more than me"

Well, thanks I guess, but it's just a hobby. I don't think I'd enjoy it as a full-time gig, and probably wouldn't make as much money (not to say that some brokers don't make a lot, I just don't think I'd be able to compete). And sorry if it seems like I'm attacking you - in the end, just trying to understand your thinking. You're obviously well beyond people like NYCMatt whose great contribution to this board is calling Williamsburg a "toilet" from his palace in Washington Heights.

angelo--ill explain:

you mentioned williamsburg in a post--this brought out blowjob , se's resident, blathering, loooongwinded, perpetual, self-appointed defender of williamsburg--see, she bought a small condo there at peak and blathers as therapy for her buyer's remorse

and re williamburg, ive always said i love the neighborhood and hang out there often--that has little to do with the fact that it will remain an awful place in which to invest long past the time i am happily dirt napping

Angelo, don't mind Wbottoms. If you even noticed the tiny grey troll. There's a reason he's that way.

"I still don't understand what's so "completely different" about the lifestyles. It's coming off as a throwaway excuse for why Dumbo valuations should be higher. Weird."

To Understand DUMBO you have to understand that it is really Brooklyn Heights. DUMBO was coined sometime in the late 90's. Just as we used to call East Williamsburg "Bushwick" and South Williamsburg "South Side", We used to call DUMBO the Brooklyn Heights Water Front. Brooklyn Heights was first gentrified in the 80's, boomed in the 90's and Soared in the 00's. It is primarily composed of co-ops, and private townhouses/brownstones, and it is historically landmarked, so there is very few new buildings and until the last 5 years hardly any condos. So DUMBO filled this void, full Service Luxury Condo Buildings is just what Brooklyn Heights Needed. This and people fell in love with the views, you no longer needed to live on the promenade to enjoy full downtown manhattan skyline views which i think is the most iconic skyline in the world. Views are the number 1 factor right next to location in terms of real estate pricing in NYC. I guarantee a 600sf 1br w views will always sell for more than a 1200sf 1br looking at a brick wall in the same building. DUMBO is just an extension of BK Heights, as it shares the same school districts, amenities, location, & transportation access. This took DUMBO ahead very fast.

Here is my rationale, (the long version) I don't blame you, I think its hard to see what I am seeing because your not a broker, so you don't speak to as many buyers, sellers and other brokers. Its not all on paper. The inventory you see on streeteasy is only what is released. Buyers need to be wary because most buildings who claim they are 50% sold are really talking about 50% of what they released, not the entire building. This is a common marketing technique. Contrary to how streeteasy promotes itself, the average buyer will never know as much as a specialized broker in an area. We see what is going on behind the closed doors, we are in the meetings when the marketing strategy is being developed and we decide what to release and when to release it. The pipeline is huge, In downtown brooklyn alone there is a small glut and we don't have nearly as many buildings as Williamsburg. I'm not trying to think rocket science, just simple supply & demand. Im sure the demand is in Williamsburg, no doubt about that, but there is a over supply when you include all the areas we now call Williamsburg. The marketing strategist really should of left Bushwick as Bushwick bc they water downed Williamsburg by turning it into East Williamsburg, all in an attempt to raise valuation there.
Of course it is still NYC and it is block to block and building to building, so real estate is REALLY LOCAL in terms of valuation.Thats why most appraisers only want to look at same building comps and try not to compare it to similar buildings even on the same block. They are trying to do it smart in williamsburg, trickling out inventory and stalling projects so they dont all compete at the same time. If everything were to be dumped on the market all at once in Williamsburg, there would be sure fire sales. Once it is all out, without major NYC job growth and a robust economy I dont see how people will be able to resell or rent at premium rates with all the competition and sooo many condos. This is why manhattan held up, its still majority Co-Op (about 80%+), which arent as speculative as condos and are more financially secure.
Once the tax abatements run out, you get a common charge hike, and there is a window assessment on all the Glass Buildings, Roof Assessment because of all the non-union crappy work, your monthly carrying cost can double or triple easily within the next 10 years. In co-op's that is a lot less likely to happen. Therefore areas like bk heights and manhattan have this safety net where the majority of the neighborhood wont go bankrupt even if all the condos do. So even if all the sponsors are all successful in williamsburg, you are still left with the baton having to navigate the rocky road of over supply of the same product in the same area. If the economy takes a real dive, i agree it wont be isolated to just williamsburg, we will all be in trouble, but I believe Williamsburg has the potential to have the most problems and lose the most value because of all the condo inventory.

>The inventory you see on streeteasy is only what is released. Buyers need to be wary because most buildings who claim they are 50% sold are really talking about 50% of what they released, not the entire building. This is a common marketing technique. Contrary to how streeteasy promotes itself, the average buyer will never know as much as a specialized broker in an area.

And you use this inside knowledge to tell people not to buy?

>We see what is going on behind the closed doors, we are in the meetings when the marketing strategy is being developed and we decide what to release and when to release it.

Guess not

>The marketing strategist really should of left

?

>> you are still left with the baton having to navigate the rocky road of over supply of the same product in the same area.

??

For the record, I DO NOT want to see the economy dive, I want to see Williamsburg Boom and go up , I love Brooklyn and I want it to grow. I hope my speculation of the future is wrong.

You want to see it boom but you say it will plumet [sic]

angeloz,

Your sentiments are not new. They've been argued ad nauseum here for years. The fact is the inventory argument has not panned out. Williamsburg, as a "fringe neighborhood", was supposed to be the worst market after the bust, but it has not turned out that way. You still don't understand the Williamsburg market. Stick to DUMBO and downtown Manhattan. Don't make sweeping statements of markets you do not know. If you are right, just wait for all the customers to come to you.

Don't worry, you don't have to explain how brokers lie and manipulate and deceive to sell their product. We're pretty knowledgeable about broker tactics. You guys aren't the most admired group on Streeteasy.

Lookpied

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79edcd64-df9f-11e0-845a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Y55Uko6V

Without Jobs it cant sustain. Its not the brokers being deceptive. The brokers and marketers are actually trying to save and maintain your investment in the area. You should be praising them and helping them by giving them more business. We are all in this together.

But I wil start a new discussion, dont want to beat a dead horse and sound so negative...

well, what angeloz is saying could be a good thing for people who want to be in Wmsbg - he's saying wait a while and prices will go down.

"ionanda, sorry i wasnt clear how you got the 10% but if you factor 5-10% per floor your right. I understand if its not worth paying 8mill for a place. Its not for everyone. Generally when someone buys 1 apartment for 8 million, they dont turn it into a rental. I think someone said earlier in this thread, Rich people dont care about price per square foot, they just buy where ever they want because they can. DUMBO is priced like Manhattan, so its really a lifestyle choice and emotional purchase. I dont quote square footage in dumbo or manhattan. Besides it most likely being wrong on the floorplan, It doesnt make sense because you are not paying for space, you are paying to live in Manhattan. Just as Williamsburg has the "Cool" factor and people want that lifestyle, DUMBO has its own lifestyle it offers and this is where the neighborhoods are completely different."

I think you underestimate the depth of the rental market in NYC. Using that unit's asking price on sale & rent as reference points, right now there are 347 places for sale in NYC above $8.2M and 247 for rent above $17.5K. And that unit was bought in 2008 by an investment group. They've been trying to rent it / sell it for over 2 years now. Absolutely no takers. It may not be for me, fine, but the market seems to be saying that it's not for anyone.

So here you say that DUMBO is priced like Manhattan, and that's OK. Elsewhere you say that it makes no sense for Brooklyn to be priced like Manhattan. Which is it? And if DUMBO should be afforded such pricing, why shouldn't Williamsburg? I think pricing in those two neighborhoods are deeply intertwined. Should that crash come in Williamsburg, it'll take down DUMBO with it. I don't think the market that is supporting the pricing has so strong a neighborhood preference so as to support a 35% differential relative to now between the two.

> Brooklyn Heights was first gentrified in the 80's

You joking with that?

he must have been joking

in addition to his joke that dumbo has anything to do with bklyn heights

but angelo seems to have a stake in selling dumbo--so he disses comp hoods like wburg and ft green and seeks to associate with bklyn heights

with of course cause a spewing from plowjop

two blatherers with zero objectivity

all of which is tiresome

> he must have been joking

I hope so.

I had a family member work in DUMBO in the 70s/80s... noone called it Brooklyn Heights.

And Brooklyn Heights was not gentrified in the 80s... it didn't need to be gentrified. It is where the folks with $$$ in Brooklyn lived, the lawyers and judges and politicians who worked downtown in particular. My richest friend growing up had a dad as one of 'em.

"To Understand DUMBO you have to understand that it is really Brooklyn Heights."

Angelo, really? I have a hard time seeing anyone buy that. I love the Heights, but it's kind of everything Dumbo isn't - a bit older, stodgier, boring. Very pretty streets and a great place to own/rent a townhouse and have kids. Roughly the UES of Brooklyn. Dumbo is more like the non-touristy parts of Soho, or more like it was ~20 years ago. Williamsburg is far more like that than the UES as well.

"but there is a over supply when you include all the areas we now call Williamsburg. The marketing strategist really should of left Bushwick as Bushwick bc they water downed Williamsburg by turning it into East Williamsburg, all in an attempt to raise valuation there."

Honestly, only the most superficial care about naming. It's a marketing exercise for those people alone. As you say, RE is super local in this city, and just because something is called Williamsburg doesn't mean most people will think everything within those confines should be valued roughly the same. Contrast something like North 8th/Kent to Johnson/Humboldt, and you can start to understand why LookPied was right in pointing to very distinct segments within Williamsburg.

"I dont see how people will be able to resell or rent at premium rates with all the competition and sooo many condos"

What about how Dumbo is all condos? How are those provided relative immunity?

Wbottom, stop whining - THAT sh!t is tiresome.

As much as i love Brooklyn Heights, i don't understand why someone in their 30's would buy there... It's a freaking Geriatric neighborhood!

inonada, the investment group that bought it must have been the same investment group that ran Lehman's Real Estate Portfolio. What idiots!! I would never recommend that kind of purchase as an investment for a passive income. Too Risky. The broker to me is equally as guilty, but If they didnt use a buyers broker to represent them and due ALL the due diligence, well then the investment group dropped the ball BIG TIME!!
I agree with one thing, if the market doesnt bite, its not worth it. One thing people forget is that the Sellers dont make up the prices, and neither do the brokers. The market will always dictate what something is worth. Its always a challenge to price correctly, especially in 2008, we were chasing the market down. So it was a bad time to try and bottom feed. Looks like the investment group was banking on the bottom being in. During this time we saw all luxury purchases take a hit, the biggest drops in real estate in nyc were seen properties over 10million.

About dumbo being worth more than williamsburg, my post yesterday explain how DUMBO is really Brooklyn Heights, and it blew up so quickly because it was just an extension of this already desirable neighborhood. Brooklyn Heights was always Manhattans Best Kept secret. One stop away, the area was loved and growing long before Bush made it easy for everyone to buy. It was always Brooklyns nicest area, I read they used to call it "The Beverly Hills of Brooklyn". I think its one of the nicest areas in New York, and even the whole country. Call me Biased.

Also you forget about the Timing of its development. Its ALL TIMING, had williamsburg been rezoned in the 90's it may be worth close to what dumbo is now if not more, but they started building at the PEAK. The schools and Transportation also play a HUGE role in people moving to a new area as well. Im not too familiar with the schools in Williamsburg, but if you can enlighten me here I would appreciate it. I know brooklyn heights/dumbo have top rated schools both private and public. PS 321 is the sole reason why Park Slope was rated #1 in best neighborhoods in NYC. Park Slope has other great public schools, that one is just in the top 5 in NYC. People flock to Park Slope from all over NYC just to get their kids in there (its a 5 years waiting list btw). The people come, more stores open, the restaurants feed, the neighborhood grows and becomes more desirable. Not much inventory, then prices Go UP. If it weren't for its location/ proximity to the city and lack of trains Park Slope could have been the most expensive area in Brooklyn. Some blocks in Park Slope are MORE expensive now than Bk Heights/DUMBO. The schools is another variable for future valuation. After 9/11 America had another baby boom. The first since the 50's. Where are all the new 2k baby boomers going to move to? What is going to make them chose one area over another? Where will you raise your family?

For transportation, I know the j,m,z and L trains are everyones new favorite train lines. But 5-10 years ago most people didnt even know a J or Z train existed. The blue, red and green lines are KEY for bringing people over to this side of Brooklyn, Throw in the good schools, restaurants and stunning architecture from the Pre-War days, and you have demand for life.

"As much as i love Brooklyn Heights, i don't understand why someone in their 30's would buy there... It's a freaking Geriatric neighborhood!"

Because BUYING is a long-term commitment, and within ten years those 30-somethings WILL be "geriatric."

Because buying warrants reasonble investment judgement--bklyn heights will always perform at least as well as any NY neighborhood---williamsburg/dumbo will not

and bklyn heights is anything but like the UES---most of which is doing very poorly pricewise

heights is to bklyn as west of lex on the upper east side, and east of columbus on the upper west side, is to manhattan

for young families with wherewithal, aint no infrastrucutre, st ann's, packer, casino etc in williamsburg

"had williamsburg been rezoned in the 90's it may be worth close to what dumbo is now if not more"

You are losing more credibility by the second. The sheer concentration of loft buildings in a very limited area, all close to BK heights, downtown, trains, etc. Williamsburg just doesn't have the tight supply that DUMBO has... a

"Some blocks in Park Slope are MORE expensive now than Bk Heights/DUMBO"

And some blocks in Bk Heights/DUMBO are more expensive than that.
Point... your sentence is sort of meaningless.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFZrzg62Zj0&NR=1