DJIA to fall 4,000 points in 2012, Granville says

Way above average and not sustainable.

Based on?

Can't time the mkt to the tic. Scaling out here, including RE.

Here you go Sparky

http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2013/01/hussman-on-profit-margins-and-earnings-contraction.html
Presently, corporate profits as a share of GDP remain about 60-80% above their historical norm, depending on the measure one uses. Meanwhile, Wall Street is enthusiastic not only to take current price/earnings multiples at face value, but to extrapolate strong future rates of earnings growth. As a reminder of the reality that will predictably follow this mistake, the chart below shows the ratio of corporate profits to nominal GDP (left scale), along with the subsequent annual growth rate of corporate profits over the following 4-year period (right scale, inverted). Note that the inverted right scale means that higher values represent slower profit growth.

The old "reversion to the mean" lazy logic.

I always wonder, if we always revert to the mean, why would we ever diverge from the mean?

how many different identities?

Hi C0C0

how many different identities?

Hi C0C0!

how many different identities?

c00c00!

how many different identities?

C0C0
Jim Hones
...

That's 2

hilarious.

keep lying.

Confirmed

of course.

why did you change from hunters burg?

How do you choose between C0C0 the man with a window in the shower, and Jim Hones the illegal alien's cover story?

does that explain why you changed from hunters burg?

?

do you deny that you are hunters burg?

C0C0, huntersburg is a valued poster.

so...are you hunters burg?

This is an interesting post that started 12 months ago. Now I can see that many real estate bears were not just real estate bears, but generally econnomy bears. To say that the "good" performance of the stock market is basically the result of QEs, it is not news. QEs dated back more than 12 months ago. Why would people still predicted a 4000 points drop in 2012 with QE already in place. In addition, the bears then were not objecting too much to this 4000 points drop prediction. Instead, they pounded on anyone suggesting the real estate market would not be going to the 2004 level.

I think we should wait to hear from Brooks2 about the Dow prediction he posted.

another post from hunters burg

C0C0, Brooks2?

& misha?

another post from huntersburg.

why are you hiding?

aren't you proud?

"The market is up for one reason and one reason alone--The Fed. What do you think happens when that subsidy is gone."

The stock bears have been claiming this for years... and been wrong for years. And they are even more wrong now.

The logic is just poor now. It certainly isn't just the fed. Not that this is a rip-roading economy, but we came from the bring of total distaster to just run of the mill mediocre. That is now a much bigger reason than monetary policy.

brink

why don't you explain why you changed your name from hunters burg?

why have you hurt so many people?
family
friends
people you did business with

why would you change your name on an anonymous board? what are you trying to hide?

so many have changed their names to no fanfare including your buddies.
Does a name change offense your righteousness, despite all you've done to hurt so many people in real life?

so....everyone does it so you're just getting in the swing of things?

Puff Daddy did it

Brooks2 = Prophet of Doom!

As it turns out & unfortunately for him, not much of a Prophet!

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.