Happy Days Are Here Again (Almost).......

There is no real estate boom just in front of us. Stop.

hypochondriacs...."Sir, that grapefruit sized growth next to your groin isn't an erection that won't go away..... but otherwise you are in perfect health."

RENY, I really welcome the "good" economic news:
1) My sprint stock will be on fire as the economy picks ups and debt holders are more optimistic about rolling over their debt;
2) Higher interest rates will make my $1MM in cash that much more POWERFUL, I'd really like to earn at least 4% on my cash, $40K/yr IZ that too much to ask?;
3) See 2 above, I finally will see the NYC RE, nay the WORLD RE mkt collapse on higher interest rates... yipppeeeeeeeeee;
4) My wife and my 401K/403b and my kids education funds which we have been maxing out on for the last 5 years will get a nice bump.

I don't see Bankers, Mortgage Industry, RE Borkers EVER making their high water mark in the next 10 years.... and nor do I see any "home" flippers ever getting to earn 6 digits for a bucket of paint and some Ikea kitchens.....

But keep pumping doucher.... I'm healthy and I ain't got that growth on my penis.

RENY.. man this R8 fking flies.... some doucher paid $150K in 2009... I got it for $85K.

BLk on BLk with so much Carbon Fibre.... still smells new. Needs a tint job and a new exhaust, I WANT IT LOUDER!!!!!!

YOU do know in 2004-2007, there was SO SO much money on Wall Street that Larry Kosa from Manhattan Mortorcar, would ask for a $15K stoopid tax to buy whatever was "hot." So a $150K bentley was $165K. Love Larry, hilarious dude. Loves to talk about Jerry Seinfeld as a client... makes fun of ppl driving 5 yr old cars.... a consummate car salesman.

In happy homes he saw the light
Of household fires gleam warm and bright;
Above, the spectral glaciers shone,
And from his lips escaped a groan,
Excelsior!

fire crackah fire crackah sis boom bah

S&P just hit 1400 for the first time in 4 years!

It's time to kick off the doom and gloom. LOL!

Re: S&P just hit 1400 for the first time in 4 years!

so we should take all our stock gains and dump them into a depreciating real estate asset?

Lovez it. It'll just make the azzkicking of nyc re look that much worse. Now 5x it bc you at leveraged 5x. I know some of you have more leverage. It's simple math

and they are printing money like crazy, never been this crazy ever in history

Marco!! Thanks for that, one of the top five posts from ah to stevie boy!!! Ahahahahahahahaha.

hahah..classic streeteasy

And interest rates are going up too!!! Oh wait ... that's bad for real estate sales right?

Almost. This poor sucker had to drop the price of his apartment yesterday in ME because he can't get any sucker to buy it! over 25% and over 200 days on market .. and still dropping.. lol

09/21/2005
Previous Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
07/05/2011
Listed by Stribling at $1,250,000.
11/07/2011
Price decreased by 12% to $1,095,000.
12/15/2011
Off market temporarily.
01/25/2012
Re-listed by Stribling.
03/13/2012
Price decreased by 9% to $995,000.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/620331-coop-430-east-57th-street-sutton-place-new-york

Happy Days Are Here Again" is a song copyrighted in 1929 - we all know what happened that year! Just sayin... - & I as much as I want to think RENY is correct I go with the economists at ECRI who forecast a recession by the end of this year. growth has stalled-is flat & job data reflects the fact that a lower % of folks are working - particularly young people (who are staying home & certainly not buying apartments). Of course those ten new Starbucks employees can pool together their resources and buy a studio in the Village, right? We are digging out of a sizable hole. I'd say An Obscure Decade is Half Over...

Brooksie: I knew the ultimate negative nabob would make an appearance. LOL!

The example you gave for Mitown East comes out to over $900 PSFT at the reduced price, not a great example of a destressed property. Did you happen to notice the same C line sold for $995K in 2007 and another sold for $1,225K last year?

Those doorman studios at $200K, 1 Bedrooms at $350K and 2 Bedrooms at $500K that you've been waiting for these past 3 years just aren't going to happen. Sorry about that!

What exactly would be "happy" about reverting to a destructive rise in real estate prices that takes from the productive and gives to the rentiers, while destroying the living standards of the young and making the City a less interesting, less fair, less productive and poorer place?

RENY, do you really hate your country and fellow Americans so much that you regard ruining their economy as "happy days"?

The city is poorer?

RENY is a self serving tool who puts his own bubble profits above all else. Like a Jewish nazi sympathizer who made money trafficking 'human hair wigs'

Them nazis are okay with you reny, aren't they?

Nyc bubblers are the nazis. W67 is like the German born American come to kick some nazi azz.

Wake the fk up you fking nazis. Bc you benefit financially from the nazis, it don't mean their policies are correct.

Wow a new low

Low? I thought SP hit a new high?

Come on reny. Work your Sherpas, you retard.

Spend some money... Go get another heloc. Go buy a Ferarri. It's only $300k. Just sign another heloc. Your housesitting gig will still be there when the ballooon payment is due... It's a solid career.

RENY: I have been following Ray Dalio for years -- his analysis convinced me to get out of real estate before the bubble popped. His hedge fund is one of the best performers in history. He is a master on issues of de-leverging and he is calling for 15 YEARS of 2% growth in US economy. What do you think that will do to asset prices? Do you have any viewpoint wider than an ant. Do you ever consider macro economic views or does nothing matter other than the sale price of the apt next door.

http://www.economist.com/node/21549968

w67th: What a sad excuse for a human being, and making no sense as usual.

financeguy: Seems to me all of the restaurants, theaters, Starbucks, hotels, etc are always full, I wouldn't worry too much about this "poor" city. Do you think real estate should be priced in a vacuum while the price of gasoline goes to $5, restaurants run $100 a head, theater tickets at $250, hotels $500 a night, car rentals $200 a day and $4 for a coffee at Starbucks. I think not.

P.S. Most of the people spending all that money are the "young".

I wouldn't mind all of the down arrows disappearing from listings. Another reason to believe happy days are coming is that construction on new residential and commercial units has been almost nonexistant for the past few years meanwhile the economy in NYC is improving meaning more people are moving here needing a place to live. When inventory goes down, prices go up. It will be good for landlords and sellers.

Apt23. Thanks for the Dalio link. I really like the idea of business and 50yr credit cycle analysis overlaying this 'depression.'

Reny. Stfu. You have the mental acumen of a gnat. And apt23 is correct, you are like the guy who watches 'Tlc special 'micro penises'' and announces at the bar, 'im bigger than that dude!'

Nycmodern. Just stfu and go buy some bf the prices go up.

apt23, what do you make of this part of the article you quoted (great one, thanks for that, btw)? Hard not to make the tie to the RE market.

"Mr Dalio models the macroeconomy from the bottom up, by focusing on the individual transactions that are the machine’s moving parts. Conventional economics does not pay enough attention to the individual components of supply and, above all, demand, he says. To understand demand properly, you must know whether it is funded by the buyers’ own money or by credit from others."

If I was selling today a property purchased post 2005, formula for price = sale price + closing costs + 10%.
This way I make a little gilt or at least break even. I would turn on the news, look at the stock market, and change the formula and ammend the 10% to 15% and call my trusty broker pondering the 6% I'm going to have to fork over all the while thinking that I can always lower the price.

Not such crazy thinking if there's no rush to sell.

RE prices in NYC remain far higher than the cost of producing new housing, renovating old housing or converting rentals to owner-occupied. Therefore, they encourage inefficient, non-productive, waste -- shifting capital to RE that could be better used elsewhere. That makes us poorer than we need to be. It's why a family needs to make $400k/year today to live the same way that an earlier generation lived on $40k/year. If we were paying less for housing, we could do something more useful with our money.

Bubble RE prices are a simple transfer of wealth from people who buy now to people who bought earlier. The bubble sucks up capital that could be used to make people's lives better, or at least invest in something more productive than lining the pockets of landowners. The bubble handicaps beginning entrepreneurs, artists and the others who make NYC vibrant and successful, making it harder to live here or to have the capital they need to get their businesses started. And, of course, it is a key reason why the costs of doing business (and therefore the prices charged) are so high in NYC.

RENY's desire to make us worse off is repulsive. So is his/her cheerleading for redistribution from the middle class to the richer.

RENY's prediction that the bubble will last forever is a different matter. It seems to be grounded in a firm belief that American capitalism has failed. Bad bet, regardless of what you think of RENY's Reverse Robin Hood class-warfare politics. If markets work, bubble prices ultimately will self-correct.

First, prices above the cost of production (building, renovating, converting) will induce more supply until prices drop to the cost of production, and prices above the cost of near-substitutes (renting) will lead to diminishing demand, with the same effect.

Second, bubbles create their own demand, and that demand declines as the bubble fades. In the rising part of a bubble, people expect RE prices to rise, so they buy more than they would if they thought they were actually paying for it, imagining that they are investing (or paying less than they are) because they believe they'll be able to sell later for even more. Why not buy more when buying more means its costs less? And the higher prices mean that those who bought earlier can afford more and can borrow more. But the same process works in reverse as the bubble slows. As bubble finance hits its limits, bubble profits begin to dry up, and bubble assumptions start to fade, bubble demand slows as well. And reduced demand, like increased supply, tends to bring prices down.

The decline may be slow or it may be fast, but unless the most basic mechanisms of capitalist markets have been replaced by pure kleptocracy, prices will eventually return to something resembling costs of production and rent.

NYRE's "happy days" would be quite sad for almost all of us. Fortunately, they are also reasonably unlikely.

I understand RENY's optimism, we are headed in the right direction but its hard to see a new real estate bubble yet. Low interest rates suggest a weak economy, and as long as its weak, lending will be tight. There are not enough buyers out there now to create a bubble. The bubble happened because anyone with a pulse received money to buy. Yes some inventory is moving, but you will see across the city many condo projects turning rental because the demand simply isn't there to absorb all the new inventory on the market, not even mentioning the inventory in the pipeline coming....

Finance guy makes a good point that these market need to self correct before any real progress and right now it is artificially being held up.

"It's why a family needs to make $400k/year today to live the same way that an earlier generation lived on $40k/year."

It's called inflation, I can still remember when a subway ride was 15 cents, gas was 39 cents and a cup of coffee cost a dime. All have risen 10 fold or more along with everyting else including the price of real estate both sales and rentals.

Inflation will take care of the previous bubble. Prices have come down while inflation has risen, making prices appear more reasonable. It happened in the late 80's and it bottomed out in the mid-ninety's, same will happen now, prices will stagnate for a while but ultimately will rise.

Believe me it all works out, now go and get yourself a $4 cup of latte, and chill out! LOL!

RENY: I do not think you quite understood financeguy's comment - I suggest you read it again....If your answer to the rising prices is simply inflation, then you need to revisit your college books....

w67th is just trying out material for his upcoming Sprint spokesman gig.

RENY: I remember when the bus was 5 cents and the drivers gave change.

My dad used to pull into the gas station and tell them : "Fill 'er up one-ninety".
I think that meant $1.90 worth of gas and could that have filled 'er up back then?

John75: How did I misunderstand the statement I referenced, what caused a 10 cent cup of coffee to cost $2.50 today??

Truth: Your dad was probably talking about the type of gas he wanted.

"Sunoco stations offered as many as eight grades of "Custom Blended" gasolines from its "Dial A Grade" pumps ranging from subregular Sunoco 190 to Sunoco 260"

Thanks RENY. I was wondering. Looks like my dad was splurging on gas.
We can remember things like that from 45 years ago. ;)

Next time w67th wants to sound like his childhood was more difficult than others' he will write: "My dad said to "Fill 'er up 150 and we couldn't get gas so we had to go home..."

I just noticed that bjw2103 is in the grey zone and when the other grey zone comments are unhidden bjw is still grey. I have to unhide him from the grey zone.

SOPHIA CAN YOU PLEASE LOOK INTO THIS?

"Next time w67th wants to sound like his childhood was more difficult than others'"

He was brought up by wolves! LOL!

In a cave in Manhattan.

I'm going to check to see if there is a basement in the grey zone in case bjw is being held down there.
I gotta go out of the VIP lounge. Be back later.

angeloz,
where to begin? for starters...put down that glass pipe!
I'm going to let you read this statement slowly and allow you to self correct:
'Low interest rates suggest a weak economy, and as long as its weak, lending will be tight.'
Here comes the next one:
'There are not enough buyers out there now to create a bubble.'
Angie baby, although it takes buyers to drive up the costs, it was the ultra relaxed lending standards that made the bubble actualize. Ang...that is not going to happen again in your life time here in the U.S.
Here's my favorite:
'not even mentioning the inventory in the pipeline coming....'
Ang...there a pipeline? Pipeline has been shut down for sometime now. Cranes on the horizon=pipeline...see any cranes? things are in a lateral push where fabulous props trade for bragging rights but the bulk of trades are for even or less. What will save the day? Maybe you.

"you've been waiting for these past 3 years just aren't going to happen. Sorry about that!"

I have been commenting here for less than 9 months. So wrong again.

"RENY: I do not think you quite understood financeguy's comment f your answer to the rising prices is simply inflation, then you need to revisit your college books...."

I doubt she's (RENY) has been to college, let alone has a HS diploma.

Falco: There is product in the pipeline. Perhaps not the equal to the frenzied pre bubble days, but there is more coming on the market. There are several high rises either planned or already going up in Brooklyn that will draw young starter uppers away from Manhattan. There are also some upcoming high rises that are in the works dotted around Manhattan -- including midtown, the high line and Noho that I know about which means there are probably many more. Also there are several luxury buildings in the works -- not only 157 west 57 but also CPS. Plus Extell has more planned on Riverside though I am not sure of the timing.

Brooks, you mistakenly presume anyone here gives a good Fuck what your opinion is about anything, let alone this particular subject.

Truth

How old were you in 1948 where fare was raised from a nickel to a dime?

Really wish Lucille outed you j homo so all could see what a pussy u really are

columbiacounty, how old were you in 1948 when the toll on the Rip Van Winkle Bridge going westbound was raised from a nickel to a dime?

John75: How did I misunderstand the statement I referenced, what caused a 10 cent cup of coffee to cost $2.50 today??

RENY: your ignorance is charming - sorry, but I do not have the time to educate you.

What don't you try asshole? I'll give you two hints:. My first name isn't really jim, and I work in estate. Share with Lucille, wherever that dumb shore went.

That toll was raised in 1948, huntersburg? How much is it to cross the RVW bridge now?

I think the bus was maybe 10 cents back in the early 1960s I can't remember exactly but do remember back to when I was too young to require a fare. They raised the price by 5 cents for a while until it got to 25 cents and my dad said "A quarter for the bus -- walk!"

In unrelated news: bjw has been sprung from the double-hidden comment basement in the grey zone.
Thank me later, bjw.

How is Sprint doing?