What Happend to the "Idiot's Thread"?

stevejhx I have very good news for you and that is the Manhattan RE market will do just fine this year. There are buyers out there want to buy and yes believe it or not they will be able to get a mortgage. So don't worry stevejhx just get your rent check in on time and enjoy your valuable time by spending most of the day writing your posts. I have enjoyed reading the Manhattan RE market crash predictions for the past 6 years and enjoying each and every prediction

Ah, my Spunkster!

Alas, I read on another thread that you are the only buyer out there!

Okay I have a new contest and that is the number of posts stevejhx will write tonight and how many psots stevjhx will write tomorrow.

I forecast that stevejhx will write 45 posts tonight.

My forecast for tomorrow is that Stevejhx will write 175 posts on various threads

My last forecast is that stevjhx will spend all his waking hours on this board writing posts.
The only time he won't is when he is in the bathroom.

Ah, Spunkster! Up to your usual tricks!

I may write THOUSANDS if I feel like it - all to annoy you! ;)

Sorry I just need to make one correction. I am forecasting Stevejhx will make 235 posts tomorrow not 175.

In other words, spunky, he's just replacing your constant bashing of anyone who intimates that Manhattan RE might suffer. I believe you used to post around that many times per day not so long ago. I bet if we did a regression analysis, we would find a strong correlation with the strength of the Dow and the number of posts you had per day. I enjoy your posts, but you've gotten pretty bitter as of late. Can we just admit that those who were bearish before were on to something and move on with all of this? Thanks.

Anything that I do which motivates you to spend your time and energy trying to annoy makes me happy.

Okay so 44 posts to do stevejhx.

bjw2103, you don't expect the Spunkster to understand "regression analysis," do you?

Yes the Spunk has admitted - or claimed - that she owns property throughout our pleasant little isle. No wonder she's so bitter when somebody suggests that Rosy Scenario might have passed away.

She also admitted she owns Merrill Lynch and Citigroup stock. I particularly like The C - great investment, that, Spunkster! MER I once owned, bought at 45 sold at 75, & I'm happy to see it gone.

Did you own any BSC, Spunkster?

And you've never answered: why are you bullish on Manhattan real estate?

43 posts to go. Come Stevejhx you can do it

not quite stevejhx. Spunky is not the only buyer out there. Just closed on one and have 2 in the pipeline. Am I worried? Not quite. I keep reading that everyone should rent and not buy and guess what, I will have nice places to rent for all these non-buyers.

csn, as long as you can get more in rent than you pay in carrying costs, it's a good bargain.

I'm talking about properties to live in, though, not to rent out. Personally, that business isn't for me.

42 left, Spunk!

I think csn brings up an excellent point to consider. Will rental prices actually rise due to a build up of renters wanting to stay put. Or will this be offset by more apts being available. Keep in mind it's not easy to rent a co-op. Should be interesting to see the direction of rental prices in the upcoming months.

My Spunk, I'm glad you finally asked a question that indicates our intelligence. You are right - that's why inflation is so high in the US. "Owners' rental equivalent" is how housing prices are measured in inflation. That is, for how much can you rent out a place you own? Historically it's been 1:1, but since 2000 it's been much more expensive to own than to rent. Hence, asset inflation wasn't counted; now it is. That's why the Fed isn't worried about inflation: they know that as asset prices fall, rents will go down since it'll finally be affordable to buy.

Rents have been increasing in NYC for the past year. I check relatedrentals.com all the time. They're the most expensive rentals in the city, practically, but they publish prices. Things have been stagnating for the past few months. I expect to see rents fall, b/c rents - since there's no leverage - are directly tied to income, unlike asset prices, which are leveraged.

Now, Spunk, if you can show your intelligence and not insult people, you can contribute to the general level of knowledge of humanity. I know you have it in you! LOL.

Spunkster - no answer?

Dam Steve do you take your laptop to bed so you can write 7/24 on these boards.
I do believe rents have dropped a little for the past several months but that can be seasonal. I believe in the upcoming months rents will in fact increase due to inflationary pressures (increase maintenance fees, heating etc).
I also feel that renters who were considering buying will continue renting and renew their leases that expire this spring and summer.Thereforethere will be less of an inventory of rentals on the market.
This is just my opinion but I don't feel rents will go down this spring and summer.

I work a lot Spunkster, that's how I do it: I log on every now and then to take a break from my work.

But it is good to hear you talk sense, rather than attack people!

The problem with your analysis is that rents rise and fall as a result of demand, not as a result of costs. If they rose as a result of costs then they would rise every time someone rented out a condo, because right now for the most part in Manhattan it costs more to hold a condo that the revenue earned by renting one out.

Rents can't go up more than incomes, else it will drive people to other places since they simply become unaffordable. It's not a question of where people want to live, but if you make $5,000 a month, you simply can't afford rent of $4,000. You must live somewhere else.

That said, I believe rents have stabilized and as housing costs fall - and they will - rents will fall along with them. Remember, the economy is contracting, banking is in a mess, and there are all sorts of new buildings coming online that will have to be filled. With all the retrenchment on Wall Street - which makes up 35% of the income earned by NYC residents - I don't think that these rates can be maintained.

Well let's just see what happens. Starting in April I'm predicting a raise in rents. I beleive people renting now will stay put and renew their lease at a higher rate. It's costly to move. If present renters in Manhattan think they will get a better deal they need to watch the following cost
1. Moving cost
2 Application cost
3 Credit check cost
4. Commission cost
5. Misc expenses.

Best to renew and therefore new renters will face higher costs. It's all about supply and demand Steve. Should be interesting but I wouldn't be surprise if you get a little bump up in rental across Manhattan. I do beleive Soho, Tribecca,W. Village will get the highest increases in rent.

I think you might well get it, but not for the reason you say, and it depends on how much you want to raise the rents. There is a shortage right now due to high property prices. When they come down, rents will fall.

However, you may wind up renting 5 to a room. ;0

And of course, if you have a good tenant you might not raise so much, since good tenants are hard to find, and one bad tenant can take you a year to evict, and trash your apartment if they get mad at you.

stevjhx you just confirmed my thoughts about you.

Well I'm glad that I confirmed your thoughts about me, just as much as I don't care what you think about me.

The Idiot Thread is back!

hey stevejhx I see you lived in a lot of different countries. Did you tell your neighbors you were from the U.S.? I just want a heads up for if you did I want to make sure I bring a helmet with me when I visit those places.If your personality represents your postings I want to make sure I'm protected.

Spunk, you're off on the ad-hominems again. If you want a personality contest, I could lose. If you want a return-on-investment, I went from $1 to multimillions.

Pick your contest.

OMG the absurdity of this discussion

I agree Predicta. The absurdity is why a lot of posters have left. This used to be a great site. Now I a can flip between here and Curbed and it is largely the same. It would be lovely if the bulls and bears split went away - it has been way overplayed.

The bulls have either split out of embarassment or dug in their heels to fight.

What else would you expect when the numbers show the decline is in?

predicta: you bumped a 9 month old thrad to complain???

"It would be lovely if the bulls and bears split went away - it has been way overplayed."

Unfortunately, it can't if people like nyc10022 continue to unabashedly foster this myth, which is largely untrue. He should check what I wrote on this very thread 9 months ago before continuing to accuse me (and others) of only knocking "bear" arguments.

"stevejhx I have very good news for you and that is the Manhattan RE market will do just fine this year. There are buyers out there want to buy and yes believe it or not they will be able to get a mortgage."

Oh where, oh where has my spunky gone?
Oh where, oh where can he be?
With his bull-sh*t gone
And the bears proved right
Oh where, oh where can he be?!

"The bulls have either split out of embarrassment or dug in their heels to fight."

What I love about this site is that folks like nyc10022 can post incessantly about the demise of the world and yet, when you push him to explain, he runs and hides. He has already changed aliases at least once (no telling how many other screen names he uses) and when legitimately challenged a few days ago he left the thread in a huff. nyc10022 is a phony…....and there is nothing worse than a phony.

Yes, I'm hiding.

Sounds like two of the bigger bulls are rationalizing again.

And bjw, you need to go back NINE MONTHS to find a post where you weren't anti-bull.
Wow, you SO proved your case.

LOL

Maybe you guys need to do something better with your time than work your obsession with me...

Where's spunky?

stevejhx = spunky. Stevejhx needed an archenemy in order to be able to be so loud about his views, and so he created one. Most annoying to stevejhx is someone like nhyc10022 who is virtually identical and therefore competes for the oxygen in the room. The rest of us are suffocating.

Well, wainley, if you're suffocating, then leave.

Alas - I'm not spunky. Spunky long predates me, so your theory would have to be inverted.

Stevejhx, why so angry? Why always so angry? And angry about just about everything? Why?

sounds like this wainley is a new handle for someone. Who do you think?

state your guess nyc10022

er, EddieWilson

er, nyc10022

"Yes, I'm hiding"

nyc10022, as soon as someone takes a minute to show that you are wrong (and it only takes a minute), you get defensive and run away. That tells me a lot about you and your multiple aliases.

"why so angry?"

Am I angry? Thank you for letting me know - I'm out of touch with my feelings.

"Sounds like two of the bigger bulls are rationalizing again.

And bjw, you need to go back NINE MONTHS to find a post where you weren't anti-bull.
Wow, you SO proved your case.

LOL

Maybe you guys need to do something better with your time than work your obsession with me..."

Where did you get obsession from? Do you feel that important when people respond to your posts? Yikes. Somebody revived this thread for whatever reason, and my comments were right there for you to read. I'm not a "bull" or a "bear." I know that really messes up your little world, when people don't fit in the boxes you create for them, but c'est la vie. JuiceMan is dead on about your strange habits - you've still never explained the weird switch from EddieWilson. Please do!

stevejhx
15 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse "why so angry?"
Am I angry? Thank you for letting me know - I'm out of touch with my feelings.

stevejhx, don't deflect

> you get defensive and run away.

Thats pretty funny from the guy who has done exactly that.....
I'm here, not hiding anywhere..

You're the guy who made some very lousy predictions and went running when they were shown to be false.

> Where did you get obsession from?

I didn't get it from anywhere, just noticed it coming from you, hall monitor. You spend an awful lot of time "policing" my posts and really no others.

Alpine comes on the board with total denial, not a word from you.
Tech_Guy just makes things up, you have no problem with that.
Sorry, but your true colors are fairly easy to spot.

You can try and turn it around all you want, but it is fairly transparent.

> "why so angry?"
> Am I angry? Thank you for letting me know - I'm out of touch with my feelings.

I do love how the folks who made bad bets think *we're* the angry ones. To me, its just a lot of bullshit defensive posturing.

Sorry, no... I'm awful happy these days. Calling something so right, and profiting from it is generally a big upper.

Stevejhx is on record for making some really bad bets in the market. Really bad.

And one big call on the RE market that seems to be more accurate than anything the bulls said.... over a year ago.

Given this is a RE board, that should be the one we focus on here.

Steve was right, and a lot of folks seem to be angry about that.

"You're the guy who made some very lousy predictions and went running when they were shown to be false."

Don't run away nyc10022, I'm about to ask you to be more specific (which you seem to be incapable of doing). What lousy predictions did I make? Again, nyc10022, be specific. Also, where have I gone? What do you consider running? Be specific.

"I'm awful happy these days. Calling something so right,"

I've asked you this before nyc10022 and you have been unable to answer it. What exactly (and specifically) have you called right?

"you've still never explained the weird switch from EddieWilson. Please do!"

Another good question that you have never answered nyc10022. Why the change?

"stevejhx is on record for making some really bad bets in the market."

And some good ones. Like not buying Manhattan real estate.

yup, mixed bag

"why so angry?"

Same old arugment that renters are bitter and poor. Usually by people who've run out of room in arguing the financial "benefits" of owning and so they assume you have an emotional attachment to owning that they do (or have convinced themselves they do now that it no longer makes financial sense).

> Don't run away nyc10022

Are you retarded? Its been 3 minutes. I'm "running away"?

> What lousy predictions did I make? Again, nyc10022, be specific.

are you joking?

"JuiceMan
about 14 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse

2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

Pretty fing specific to me...

> What exactly (and specifically) have you called right?

Manhattan RE Bear market... and we now have it.

Dude, you can pretend others weren't "specific" enough, and play all the games you want, but...

MAN, DID YOU CALL THAT WRONG.

> What do you consider running? Be specific.

Amazing, coming from the guy who started saying I was running.

Man, the jig is up. You've been proven horribly wrong... not sure why you are playing games trying to cover that up.

LOL JuiceMan forgot the little search function can find a trail of evidence a mile long with his nonsense predictions. How sad.

I know, is quite funny.

But, when guys like juiceman stop talking about the actual market, and focus on "you are running away" and personal stuff, I think they know they lost the real argument.

Check out the insane quotes thread... extremely juicy.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6316-buy-now-or-be-priced-out-forever-favorite-insane-quotes

"What lousy predictions did I make?"

Here's a copy and paste of the quotes nyc10022 compiled from JuiceMan in that thread. Do you have long-term memory loss problems JuiceMan?

"I'm glad you are coming around to the fact that Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better"

"These units closed in the third quarter during the peak of the credit crisis. What happened to “the sky is falling because no one can get a mortgage”? "

"Face it, the doomers were wrong. "

"I'm still wondering what happened to the Q3 mortgage crisis."

"oh yeah. The crisis. The one that you so expertly predicted would crash Manhattan real estate in Q3, and then Q4, and now Q1 of 08. Right."

"Assuming average bonus payouts this year (far better than the 30-50% decrease the bears predicted as aifamm pointed out) Wouldn't stock that vests over 1,2, or 5 years be pretty good for the future of Manhattan real estate? Or should we ignore that benefit as well? "

"Fringe properties in fringe areas will suffer. Maybe enough to flatten the overall market. As for the good neighborhoods...up...up...up."

"Call me a bull but it is impossible for me to calculate a reasonable scenario where all of those indicators will drive south quickly, and put Manhattan in a Miami like situation. It is just not going to happen."

too easy....

Where did juiceman run away to now?

JuiceMan, you HAVE NOT RESPONDED IN 3.5 seconds. STOP HIDING!!!!!

lol

You have to do better than that nyc10022. Below is what I was responding to in the thread (which you failed to post) and by the way, was 100% correct. Make sure you keep things in context if you choose to quote me.

"You won't see 2003 prices again although I agree that prices will retrace to about 2005 levels in 2008"

"2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

"Manhattan RE Bear market... and we now have it."

Give me a break nyc10022. You called nothing of the sort. The economy collapsed and EVERYTHING is suffering because of it. Did you call the China slowdown as well?

"Amazing, coming from the guy who started saying I was running."

Classic nyc10022 avoidance. You didn't answer the question did you? How am I running? Be specific. Here is an example of you running off a thread just a couple days ago:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6786-people-who-bought?page=2

“you've still never explained the weird switch from EddieWilson. Please do!"

Why won’t you answer this question?

“LOL JuiceMan forgot the little search function can find a trail of evidence a mile long with his nonsense predictions. How sad.”

Jgr, if you have something to say to me specifically feel free. You seem to love adding on to other people’s arguments rather than forming your own. You are like a bully’s wimpy friend shouting insults from the sidelines. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt because I actually enjoyed your posts on China earlier today.

jgr, pick the quote that was wrong. You realize you are back to Q3 & Q4 of 2007 don't you? Were you out of college then?

nyc10022 = EddieWilson = 10 other aliases = phony

"You seem to love adding on to other people’s arguments rather than forming your own."

"I actually enjoyed your posts on China earlier today"

So I both love adding onto other people's arguments AND I have my own arguments. Yes, yes, that is the nature of a forum where you both "add on" and do original stuff.

Going back a year is off-limits? Ok, that's cool, there's plenty of other nonsense you spouted within the past year to show the true moron you are.

> nyc10022 = EddieWilson = 10 other aliases = phony

Can't say I'm surprised that he's resorted to lying, now too...
His credibility is pretty much shot.

"Classic nyc10022 avoidance. You didn't answer the question did you? How am I running? Be specific. Here is an example of you running off a thread just a couple days ago:"

Juiceman doesn't understand the post, so I'm running. Got it.

"Going back a year is off-limits? Ok, that's cool, there's plenty of other nonsense you spouted within the past year to show the true moron you are."

ROTFL.

Juiceman figures that if he yells and screams enough, no one will read the old posts.

But they're just too funny.

> How am I running? Be specific.

He also doesn't get that he's the butt of the joke...

Juiceman, I'm not sure how you are missing which quotes are "wrong", but we have a whole compilation if you need 'em...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6316-buy-now-or-be-priced-out-forever-favorite-insane-quotes

"Going back a year is off-limits?"

Not off limits at all, everything is fair game. Just post quotes in context.

"there's plenty of other nonsense you spouted within the past year to show the true moron you are."

Give it your best shot jgr and we'll see who the moron is. What quote above (or any) do you want to discuss?

"So I both love adding onto other people's arguments AND I have my own arguments"

The China discussion was the first time I actually saw you post something productive that wasn't nanny-nanny-boo-boo in nature, so it surprised me. Maybe you had a friend write it for you because you do seem a bit slow, or you are another nyc10022 alias which is entirely possible.

all the context you could ever want.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/search?search=juiceman

I can't believe this guy is trying to deny he called it horribly wrong, and cover it up with a lot of hand waving and personal insults.

So you are not EddieWilson nyc10022? A liar as well as a phony?

"Juiceman doesn't understand the post, so I'm running. Got it."

LMAO. Run baby run! Read the thread, it's great. I think you were crying while you typed it.

"Juiceman figures that if he yells and screams enough, no one will read the old posts."

Am I yelling? I'm actually laughing. You two (or one) crack me up!

Yes, keep changing the subject, Juiceman.

Noone will notice how painfully wrong you were. Nobody read that. You are safe.

Noone knows you called it completely wrong.

Your secret is safe with us...

> Am I yelling? I'm actually laughing.

well, as long as you see the humor in your predictions... that is the first step to recovery

I'm finding them absolutely hillarious.

"Juiceman figures that if he yells and screams enough, no one will read the old posts."

It's easier to hurl insults than to admit you were completely wrong. Not sure if he thinks he needs to patch his reputation up or if he is just truly delusional about what he said only months ago.

Of course it is..... notice he'll talk about everything else except the posts. I'm you, I'm 10 other aliases, we're both running marathons, its raining in Cleveland.
LOL

All so nobody notices the hillarious calls. And they are absolutely hillarious.

At least he's enjoying them too, now.

Juiceman seems to have been wrong about a bunch of stuff about real estate. But I'd still rather have a beer with Juiceman than the 100% EddieWilson. When it comes to Stevejhx, he's been right on real estate and put his money in the stock market where he lost 85%, so he's 85% wrong overall AND I wouldn't want to have a beer with him.

Oh no! I live my life based on whether people on anonymous boards want to have beer with me!
I'm going to miss the poverty party!

your life is based on proving over and over again to people on an anonymous board that you are so smart.

"put his money in the stock market where he lost 85%"

Who said that?

Untrue, and not even close.

oh sorry, that's one personal detail you didn't give precisely (math hasn't been your strong suit), ok so between 80% and 95%.

Lost 85%? You would have had to be invested in AIG, WM, WB, FNM, FRE to get that :) You sure you aren't misquoting there?

Which is worse? Losing a fake 85%?

Or 200% when you take out a mortgage before a crash...

Steve's investment record is discussed previously, and he's acknowledged then those levels of loses. But his investment pattern is more about double long ETFs in Brazil and China and long financials when Lehman went bankrupt, which, right or wrong, is a hugely sore subject for the guy.

Steve's equity portfolio started out greater than the amount of the downpayment he would have placed on an apartment, so the 85% is worse. Didn't you read the posts where he earned 60% annual returns every year for 10 years? And then where later he stated how it was almost all gone?

As tired as certain of the repeat, always right posters are, the attacks are more tired - leave rufus or stevejhx or exit2 or whoever alone and maybe we'll have less attacks and less defensive posts.

It is interesting how the topic has turned to steve's stock investments, personal stuff, and little else?

Does this mean there isn't anyone left to defend the old bull RE projections?

Is the RE frenzy officiall dead?

Dude, does it really matter if there is or isn't someone "left to defend the old bull RE projections?"
Do you want an award or medal or some special recognition. Who the heck started this discussion anyway and why was it revived?

> Dude, does it really matter if there is or isn't someone "left to defend the old bull RE
> projections?"

When the old bulls are still here stamping their feet, only now going for personal insults... it sorta does.

How does it matter? or sorta matter?
Just take a rest.
Only bull I see here recnetly is Juiceman, and more who just want to argue for whatever reason but aren't expressing any opinion.

Thanks for confirming the point...

"The bulls have either split out of embarassment or dug in their heels to fight."

Juiceman being the one putting up a lousy fight.

nyc10022, you need to let go. You aren't even making a point that confers any real benefit on you ... not even recognition because you are anonymous and merely identified by a zip code. So give it a rest, and if not, tell us, other than Juiceman, who are these other "bulls" who you need to make feel small?

One more time.... they fled.

Spunky, etc.

> . You aren't even making a point that confers any real benefit on you ... not even recognition
> because you are anonymous and merely identified by a zip code

Yes, because I do it for the "benefit" and the parade!

what do you do it for?

nyc10022, THEY FLED? So they aren't even here. The people you are arguing with aren't even here?! So your goal is what?, to get the other people who haven't expressed disagreement with you to see that you were right over people who don't even show up on this board any more? Is that really a worthwhile cause?

Time for introspection nyc10022. A bit of healing will benefit you. I feel your pain and I want you to heal.

uh, ok...

Can I suggest you take a break from streeteasy? Doesn't have to be 6 months, but maybe 6 days? It'll do you well.

can i suggest you not try and be hall monitor?
you are simply wasting space, talking about nothing that has to do anything with real estate.

It would be better if you left and never came back.

How 'bout it?

As long as nyc10022 is bringing up old threads, here is a good one right before he changed his name from EddieWilson

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4727-sick-and-tired-of-eddie-wilsons-pathetic-ranting

Actually I'm not playing hall monitor. I'm more concerned about you. You keep arguing with people who don't even exist here. There are diagnoses for that and medications. I'd rather work with you through intervention than encouraging meds for you.

I'd worry more about the folks who need to follow me around...

Or guys in denial, like juiceman...

"As long as nyc10022 is bringing up old threads, here is a good one "

Yes, please point at other example where folks who call the market decline get attacked personally.

Yes, you win... you have absolutely proven that folks like you will wave their arm and bang their fists when they call things wrong!

(didn't I already tell you that)?