LONG Island City

hello again dco.

foundry, 5SL and powerhouse are all faux luxury. Powerhouse is probably the closest to high-end; but all of the buildings are all priced at premium luxury prices (except maybe foundry), without truely being premium. The end result can be seen at 5SL and The powerhouse: price cuts.

5SL has outrageously high maintenance (for what you get) and The Powerhouse has reasonable maintenance but it was totally overpriced (they have since reduced prices - and then sales began to tick up: powerhouse went from 18 units sold to almost 50 after the amendments).

The Foundry waited a long time to start selling - they opened their sales office after the building was almost done. The building is a bit plain for my taste though.

I have looked in the area, and I do like it, but we (my family) have no immediate plans to move from where we currently live.

I don't know if you are looking to move or just curious, but if you are, I would say that it depends on your price range. If you are going for high-end/top $ - I would say wait for the rockrose waterfront condo (they are rumored to be opening their sales office soon but sales are supposed to start at $1,000 psf). You could also check out some of the new penthouses that have been released at 10-63 (duplexes with amazing private terrace space and indoor sitting rooms on the second floor with Manhattan views)

If you are not looking for top $ places then go for some of the stuff around Vernon and near the subway; value-wise, that makes up for the view (while a water view is nice if you can afford it, it is a bit of a hike ot the subway).

There are a bunch of great buildings that are nearly sold out (still around the $680 - 750psf range):

10-50 Jackson (believe it is sold out though)
Badge Building (80% sold)
10-63 Jackson (75% sold)
Hunters point
Hunters view (both rumored to be over 50% sold but the do not release their listings - I personally do not think that the location of either of the "hunters" buildings is great)

All of that aside, I would say that it is a nice area. I would agree with you though, if you plan on moving to LIC, then stick to the Vernon/Jackson subway stop. That area has enough development to sustain retail once all of the buildings are finished, if development halts, then the other areas (queensboro, court square etc.) will suffer because they will lack the density to attract shops and restaurants.

I have a client out in LIC (court square) and have been traveling out there for 8 years, you can really see the difference. Also, because the area didn't previously have an existing community (unlike Williamsburg), gentrification is made easy - there is no transition time for moving out the people who were there before (because there weren’t many) -- not that I am trying to draw a comparison, but much like Meat Packing or TRIBECA, both areas created instant gentrification because there was no transition time for old communities leaving/getting priced out - all warehouses etc. gone residential zoning.

Some people do not like gentrification and like a bit of grit/grime so that is also something to consider.

You may have already gone out but the best advice that I can give you is to go take a look around. I know 5 people that have moved to LIC in the past year and they all swear by it, 2 are renting and the other 3 own.

Most of the people that live there say that it is very safe, there are lots of good places to eat -- and while they are still waiting for a supermarket and more shops, they see new retail opening almost weekly.

keep in mind, just off of the vernon/jackson stop there are around 20 new buildings that will be completed in the next year, in a way it will cause an increase in inventory but at the same time most of the buildings are more than 70% sold (in-contract) so it is far from a glut. With all of that new development will come retail.

The only excess inventory seems to be for apartments over $900,000 - I guess that once you have the cash to slip into the "luxury tax" bracket it opens up a whole new market for people (that is not me unfortunately :))

Anything under $700,000 seems to sell as soon as it hits the market - so buy something under that range and you should be safe, or, go for the real premium spaces (not powerhouse and 5SL) - those seem to be selling well too.

Anyhow, those are my thoughts. I like to go the more established route (people also call me boring), but if I were looking for a "real" up-and-coming hood, I would say that you can't go wrong with LIC - especially if you are looking for a home to live in for 5 years (nowhere is immune to the current market).

As I said, I have been out to look (at many places in the area), I have a few friends out there and I have been going out there for work for over 8 years; so while I can't speak as a resident, I think that I have a pretty good understanding of the area.

Hope that helps.

lobo-Thanks for the info. I have been to the area and find that it has potential. However I don't think I want to move into an area that is one big construction zone. I do think that 5-7 years it will be a great place to live as an alternative to manhattan. If prices in that area were about 550-600 sq ft. I think that would make all the construction and lack of "neighborhood" (ie stores) worth the wait. I think that at $700-1000 sq ft. you are better off in an area that already has it infrastructure in place. I guess I'll continue to monitor the market. I will look at the new rockrose bldg. when it's made public. The one flaw with that bldg already is that it's a good walk to the train. Not bad in nice weather but the winter would be a brutal walk. I think its about a good 8 blocks from the building.

That's the tough part, if you want to live by the waterfront then transportation had better not be an important factor. I can't sacrifice the subway.

personally, I feel that the best area is around Vernon (48th down to the tracks). It is close to the subway and I think that re: retail/construciton; it will have stabilized in the next two years. Most of the big development is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year -- zoning around vernon is much stricter.

The waterfront will be one huge construction zone for the next 5 years though, agree there. Hunter's point south (whatever that becomes) and the remaining rockrose buildings.

price may be an issue - unless there is a major correction in the overall NY market (which you know that I am not a firm believer in) then you are looking at $700 + PSF with the exception of a few things here and there.

Although, for the most part, prices are still hovering in the low 7's / high 6's psf. But obvioulsy, that is still not 550 - 600.

anyhow, good luck with your search.

DCO:

I am a Broker in the area, and if you are seriously interested in the Long island City area, I would suggest starting to really narrow down your choices. The Rockrose Condo is going to open the Sales Office in mid-April. The units will be from $1100 - $1500 per square foot. It will be interesting to see what prices the other properties amend their remaining units to afterward.

But, if you want a unit, and are not that pleased with the price, put in an offer. The worst that can happen is the Sponsor says no. But, most likely, it will open up the line of negotiation, and you may be surprised what you end up with.

Good Luck!

LICagent- Thanks for the offer.I think I'm going to wait. I just don't see things getting better in the near future. I still like the area, however these are uncertain times. As far a Rockrose's new building I don't care how nice the building is going to be at $1100-1500 a square foot that building will have a very tough time in this climate. The units with the great views will get good money. I predict that 50 units will go fast because of various factors. But the remaining building will not move that much at all. The biggest draw back is that nearest subway is about 8 blocks away and my understanding is that there will not be a garage. I beleive the garage will be located in one of the other buildings. The toughest sell will be the $900,000 and above range for units with no view. Its the credit that will present the problem. Look lets be realistic. At $1100-1500 you can live in Manhattan and not have to buy in a "up and coming neighborhood". At these prices you would hope the area would have stores. Amazing

LICagent- Thanks for the offer.I think I'm going to wait. I just don't see things getting better in the near future. I still like the area, however these are uncertain times. As far a Rockrose's new building I don't care how nice the building is going to be at $1100-1500 a square foot that building will have a very tough time in this climate. The units with the great views will get good money. I predict that 50 units will go fast because of various factors. But the remaining building will not move that much at all. The biggest draw back is that nearest subway is about 8 blocks away and my understanding is that there will not be a garage. I beleive the garage will be located in one of the other buildings. The toughest sell will be the $900,000 and above range for units with no view. Its the credit that will present the problem. Look lets be realistic. At $1100-1500 you can live in Manhattan and not have to buy in a "up and coming neighborhood". At these prices you would hope the area would have stores. Amazing

DCO, I totally agree. The waterview apartments will appease those looking for the ultimate view (NYC Skyline) but the others will sit. But again, thats when making offers, no matter how "low" they may seem, is a good tool to use. I have been pleasantly surprised in how quickly the area has sold out of the well priced apartments. I am from Queens and have been watching the market in the area to prepare for when I buy. But, like any potential buyer, I am hoping this period the economy is going through will bring the prices to a plateau.

And as for an "up and coming neighborhood", well, DUMBO had practically nothing when the condos came in 2003-2005, and still the residents' feel there is more to be desired. Williamsburg is STILL lacking the basic grocery stores and drug stores needed to satisfy the large amount of residents moving into the area. And, no, Bedford Ave will not cut it. LIC has actual grocery markets coming into the area (Amish Market in Rockrose and a "rumored" Gristedes in Arris Lofts). Duane Reade is coming. From a real estate standpoint, it could be worse.

LIcagent- I do agree with your assesment of the other neighborhoods. The problem for me is mostly price for what you are getting. I would put up with the lack of stores and the construction zone for a year or so but not at these prices. Also do you agree about the location of the new Rockrose building a hike to the subway. Also was I right that the building will not have a garage.

I agree, water is too far - not for someone who uses the subway.
If I could afford it, below is the one I would do:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/184903-condo-10-63-jackson-avenue-long-island-city

amazing views, private parking (elevator access to car), smaller building, one block from subway and one block from Venron.

reasonable price...

Im my opinion the waterfront is overhyped. I am a big subway person myself.

Nearly every apartment at the new Rockrose will have a view. Only corner apts will face East (but also face East). 2/3rds of the apartments will also have outdoor space. I know alot more about the building than I can talk about publicly. Let's just say that there are going to be some apartments with spectacular views in the lower end of the range that has been discussed on this board. Also a broker here, and I firmly believe that the building will be a hit. Oh, you'll be able to use the garage at EC2 for $200/mo. and the supermarket (20,000sf) should open late summer.

nyfineman- Thanks for the info I'll keep my eyes open. If the the priceses appear to be in line with what I think is fare I'll give it a real good look. However the two issue I have already are the far distance to the subway and no garage in the building. I don't know how I would feel about buying in in a "Highend bldg" with no garage attached. In the winter I don't want to have to leave my bldg to walk to another buildings garage to get my car. It becomes a safety concern as well. Not the most ideal scenario for my wife parking her car late at night. Just some thoughts. Ofcourse price will dictate alot of my concerns. However safety is always a concern no matter where you live. I would like to see 1200 square foot 2bed/2bath with great views be around $900,000. If it not in the ballpark I'll opt for a building closer to the subway with similar layout and view. I'll reconsider the Powerhouse if price continue to drop. nyfineman perhaps you can shed some light on my expectations.

You can get a 2bd/2ba for 700k with great views but maintenance of $2500 at Citylights. DCO - I think the $600 to $700 sq.ft. prices are 2004 prices - that boat has sailed! Even with the credit crunch, LIC is moving to $800 to $900 sq.ft. average! The Edge in Williamsburg is already at the $1100 sq.ft. on the water price so you may want to look in Bayside or Whitestone or better yet, Jersey City.

Luis5acc- Thanks for the info. However you should do some more homework. The powerhouse has already started to lower their priceses. My guess they will be in the $600 sq ft. range by the summer. 2004 prices are making a come back. Perhaps we go to 2000 priceses. No one knows for sure, however I have never been in the Navy either but I know a sinking ship when I see one. If you think that a building in LIC will sell for an average of over $900 sq ft. in this climate you are just fooling yourself.

So, like I said in my previous post, the prices will be very high at the Rockrose Property:

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/03/28/eastcoast_3_revealed_this_view_is_not_a_scam.php

I'm out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And they are out of their minds

Hi dco, I just did my homework and $773 per ft² (avg) is today's listed average on Streeteasy. If you take into closing costs, then we are in the $800s range. Also, take a look at the premium units in the Powerhouse and you are in the high $800s to low $900s range. Also, the powerhouse maintenance charges are a little high in comparison to other developments...Take a look at 1063 and Hunter View too...As for the View - it is really at a premium now...

Luis5acc- You get a B+ for the homework.LOL. If you look at some units that had it price lowered I believe you will find it to be a little lower about $700. The other reason why I gave you a B+ respectfully was that if you are asking me to consider closing costs and premium units as adding to the increase in the price. Then you must also do the same for the New Rockrose Bldg. That puts the price of of some of their units even higher. Lets all be honest. At 1200-1400 square foot I could find a condo or coop in Manhattan. If these prices stick then I'm out and will just have to keep a longer commute. FYI- My wife and I make very good money and still have a hard time excepting these prices. I guess most people either have alot more money or just don't believe in saving for a rainy day or retirement. 1.2M starting for a 2 Bed/ 2 Bath. At that price forget the view, every night I go to bed I should be able to Macy's fireworks.lol

FYI-I found this post and thought It was dead on.
I am seriously considering LIC. However many of the issues such as a lack of stores, rest and living in a costruction zone (for the next 5 years) has me re-thinking my options. This building does look beautiful. I see 3 problems with this building.
First it's a hike to the nearest subway. If you doubt it look at a map. I actually did the walk and its far. It's at least a 7 block walk. That's long late at night or in the winter.
Second there is no onsite parking. The person who made that decision should be fired. And yes I know that the rockrose bldg. across the street will have parking. I don't feel like leaving my bldg. to walk to another bldg. and take another elevator to my car. Just doesn't seem like anyone thought that out.
Third is and always be the price of any property. At these prices I don't feel comfortable spending 1.2M for a 2 bed/ 2 bath 1100-1200 sq. ft. condo. The views are great but, come on. Also don't forget that the tax abatements will eventually expire. This will instantly hurt the value of your property overnight down the road.
If these are the true prices I will look else where.

What happened to all the LIC lovers. Could it be that you are starting to see how the area is way over priced. EC3 will not sell out and will rent a loarge portion of the building if they dont adjust their prices by at least 20%. I would be very careful in buying in a building in this market with prospect of 50% of your neighbors being renters. Well we will see soon enough. I'm way priced out of this building and will move on a look to spend my $1M else where.I never realized how poor my wife and I are.

hey dco - I have been reading but have not had a chance to respond. By the way, I think that you have been drinking a bit of the Stevejx Kool-Aid re: 2004 prices. First of all, even he admits that by 2004 he means nominal prices. Just in case that needs explaining: it is adjusted for inflation and other factors. In other words, even with his grim outlook it only means a 10 - 15% drop, and I don't even agree with that.

Second, there is a lot of LIC bashing out there because many people do not understand the market. About 15 buildings are coming on-line before 2009 (almost all of them started construction mid-way through last year. Most of the buildings that started selling before October are almost sold out (70-90% sold). That’s certainly not excess supply.

I agree that development will continue for 5 years (or more) but the "construction zone" will be gone by the middle of 2009 -- in fairness, the eastcoast area (where EC3 is) will be under construction for a while -- but the rest of the area will be quite developed, with enough density for retail by the end of this year. If you follow the other blogs or visit the area frequently you will notice that there are tons of new restaurants and stores on the way. There is also an ultra high-end asian restaurant opening near eastcoast. The neighborhood is evolving, quickly, it has hit the tipping point.

Brokers are getting bused out to the area (literally) so that they can get educated on it (and this is all within the past month). Think about it, if even the brokers are just learning about it, then it means that there are a lot of people that don't know about it yet - I'll never forget the first time I ventured over there; I go to sunnyside a lot to eat - that's like 7 stops past vernon jackson; it is close with lots of good restaurants at cheap prices. I never would have though about stopping at the vernon jackson stop (the first stop on the 7) -- I didn't think that there was anything to see.

As more and more people become informed, the area will see increased demand (not that it has needed it yet). You'll notice that most of the previous buildings in LIC were not even marketed outside of the area - that is because they were selling out months to a year before closings began. The developers didn't need brokers. I do agree that because of the changing market these buildings will not sell out before they open but they are still selling very well compared with a lot of the city and other surrounding areas. My friend just sold his place, I was speaking with the broker from bellmarc who represents him and she had heard about LIC but hadn't even been over to see it yet -- a well established broker. It's not that she was not willing to sell units in that area; she just had no knowledge of it. Nest seekers is the only major (if you can call it that) agency that is represented in the area -- and as a result, they are raking it in.

re: prices being lowered - most of LIC is selling in the $750 psf range -- some of the quasi-luxury buildings that have opened tried to command above those prices but were not able to get them. But I guarantee you that anything around $750psf (even under 800) in the area is selling very well. even the powerhouse, which is the only building that has seen significant price cuts, has not really "cut" prices - they are still well above the first round of releases. They sold some in the first round of releases and then jacked up their prices by 30% - so when the decrease them by 5 - 10% from the released price they are still 20 - 25% above the originally scheduled prices. And let's remember, the Powerhouse has a number of issues, delayed construction, changed architectural plans, different amenities from what was originally planned -- and let's not forget the fact that Hunter's Point South sprung up since they began and now it is very likely that all, if not most of the views will get blocked in the next few years - so powerhouse and foundry are not a fair market index.

Historically, for a building to be 70 - 80% sold before they open is incredible and that is what we are seeing in LIC.

That means that there is actually relatively little supply currently or in the near future. EC3 - which I have said before and I'll say again; is not a place that I would choose, but for those in the market for it (which their are plenty of, has relatively little competition because it really is a luxury building and if you have the money to buy the view and have the valet deliver your car to the lobby while you wait by your pool and jump in the car to drive to your parking spot by work -- then good for you (not me). Anyhow, I think that people who wait to get into LIC will not be able to get in later unless they are willing/able to pay the price.

ohhh, and by the way, people in West New York (that's in NJ!!) are willing to pay close to those prices for waterfront views and they are not even in the city - in fact, they need to take a bus!

Mark my words on this too, EC3 will not be renting any units.

I posted a link earlier in this thread:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/184903-condo-10-63-jackson-avenue-long-island-city

I said that if I could afford those prices it would be the building that I would choose, since then, the building has sold 4 more units, and gone from around 70% old to over 80%. Places are still selling, and you will always be able to find units for sale in the are (at or around the 750psf range - even in a year) but you will not be buying the unit that you want - by the time that all of the buildings are completed, anything with a view, good layout, etc. will be commanding the prices that people are willing to pay - and I can guarantee you that they will be above the prices that people are buying at now.

So, if you want to live in LIC with a view of the Queens side on a low floor on a busy street, then yes, you can go ahead and wait. Otherwise, you will be paying more than people are now, or not have the unit that you desired.

I admit that this is my opinion but I have really been watching the area very closely for the past few years and it has a lot going for it. If you want me to go on to explain why it has an upper hand over other "fringe" neighborhoods I will go on about that but right now I am tired of typing and you probably don't want to hear anymore.

lobo- I respect your detail analysis. However I don't agree with you totally. I also have been watching the LIC market for years. Actually I grew up in a neighborhood that runs along the 7 line. I agree that many developments have sold a lot of units. I'm not disputing that fact. My analysis is for the next 6-18 months. Look at the last 6 months of sales. Remember the Powerhouse hype. This was the it building just 6 moths ago. Now it is having a very difficult time selling units the even after "adjustment" is still not getting any activity. I am also aware of the potential of the views being lost. That alone will maket their 2bed/2bath 1200 sq ft. with no views in line with the same size units in the back of the building. That is about a $200,000 difference. WOW. However it is still very close to the subway and is also being marketed as a high end condo. This building is almost at a stand still. The prices have gotten way ahead of themselves in the whole area. lobo- its not that I don't think LIC has a lot of potential I just believe that as a potential buyer there is agreater risk of buying to high in the short term. Just think about it. I have $1M to spend on a condo right now. Or assume it's your money. Do you wait and see where this economy and credit problem is going? Or do you just jump in and spend $1M on a chance when all indications are things are getting worse? Also I'm in no rush and still not sure which area best fits me and my money. My wife and I make good money but not enough to just say "oh well lets just spend $1m and see what happens". That attitude is what caused this credit mess to start with. I also don't believe that NYC is a immune to the credit crisis as everyone thinks. I think that jobs in NYC is the best stabilizer. However you have to go a step further and say not just jobs but well paying jobs. And I don't need to tell you where most of those jobs are located. Over all I think the real estate maket will take a hit in the next 6-18 months and if it doesn't and remains the same or it goes up a little I will to accept that risk. However the chances of a larger correction to the downside far out weights the up at this time. I also don't buy into that rush to buy at a new development mentality. We rather see a building complete and kick the tires so to speak. If the unit we want is not available, oh well, we'll wait.

Hey DCO - I don't think that we really disagree. I would not risk money that I don't have either. I have said before that I do not argue that the market will correct itself - I just don't see double digit drops in sale prices.

If I were buying in LIC right now, I would buy a prime unit - that's all that I am trying to say. The reality is that a prime unit that I could afford would not be the 8th floor 2 bedroom in EC3 - it wouldn't even be the 1 bedroom for 760,000 - but, that 1 bedroom -- if I were to buy it -- would probably be the first one to lose value, becasue it is the worsst unit in the building.

All I'm saying is that people will buy in EC3 - they may not even be 50% sold by the time they open, but the prime units will hold their value.

In my price range, I would (as you said) be looking at buildings that offered the untis that I wanted in that range.

The powerhouse, as I have said before, is not what the developers made it out to be. It is not the ultimate luxury building to come to LIC - but it was priced as if it were. Anyhow, I do agree, why risk buying now if you are looking at places that are currently in the 900 - 1000psf range. However, there are still plenty of places in the 700 - 800psf range that are in very nice buildings.

I am not an unrealistic person either - if you have time to wait, you should wait. I am just fed-up of posts where people who have little to no knowledge of the area (not you) talk it down as if they knew what they were tlaking about. Arguing about the status of the overall market is something different - becasue I would not recomend one spend money that they can't afford to lose - anywhere in this country right now.

Hence, the title of this thread: "long Island city" (which you started) - relative to other places, is a good place to buy. So, most of my post was in response to "living in a construction zone" and "lack of retail" - my point is that it will all be there within a year or two - not 5. All of the buildings that we are arguing about will be done by the time you would be ready to move in to any of them - and the area will be very different.

I live in midtown but I still go there to hang out on the weekends -- and no, I am not the only one. I don't think that we are really arguing on that point but that is what I have really been responding to; not the overall state of the housing market. I have already spent more than enough time on Stevejx's threads responding to that topic.

The only point that I am trying to come to agreement on is that LIC is a great place to live in - and relative to the rest of the market, it is not overpriced. If you want to argue that all RE is overpriced; well, that's a different story.

Lastly, your comment about kicking the tires; I don't disagree that some people want to kick the tires. That is a risk regrdless of the market. That's why some people choose to buy pre-construction, and others do not. I also agree that if you are going to buy in a new construction that you be able to afford to lose the money. i don't disagree that it is disgraceful to see what happended across this country where people were buying new construction with $5,000 down and taking out 3 year interest only loans.

Anyhow, i keep blabing, my only point: LIC will be more than an up-and-coming area in 2 years.

lobo- We are closer in our opinions then I thought. I do think this area will be a good investment. The question is how long and will waiting pay off in the short term. I was fortunate to estimate the beginning of the market problems back in Oct. I looked at a series of indicators that many people on real estate blogs claim could never happen to NYC and applied them to the economy's markets. FYI- the exact date of my moves was Oct. 16, 2007. I'm in no way saying that I made a ton of money. I just didn't lose any and made a little. I see many of the same problem that could result in major declines in the whole NYC real estate market. I'm not predicting the end of the world. What I'm saying is for me to go ahead and buy at these prices would mean that I ignore a ton of research that has saved me money in the past. I do think that forums like this prove one point. That is that their are different opinions and all should be heard. We all might just learn things that we didn't know yesterday. I have a saying "Some student may become teachers, All teachers were once students and Great teachers will always be students".

It's nice to know that we agree on most things DCO :)
And this is a great site, becasue regradless of whether people agree or not - most people here are pretty smart and it is at least interesting to read.

almost every other RE message board out there is so full of nonsense and people who have no idea what they are talking about.

I can only hope that they do not find their way to this site.

have a good night.

lobo- Until MONDAY

why is 700-800 sq/ft the right number for lic? and not 6-700 or even 5-600? any specific thoughts on powerhouse? i think they said theyre looking to start closings in july, but the building isnt even 50% sold. and all the north/west (i.e, non-street) facing units will have to deal with construction literally 70 ft away from their windows. kind of feels like a non-starter to me. good location though.

cb81- The price is what people are willing to pay. 6-12 months ago the price was high. Now clearly people are not willing ot pay these prices. It's my belief that LIC around the waterfront should be bet 550-650 sq ft. And about 50-100 less in the 59th street bridge and citi corp building area. The Powerhouse is what I call a market indicator. It was the next "it" building. It has not moved anywhere at these prices. I remember the samethings being said about the Powerhouse as I'm hearing now about EC3. 5sl has sold much of nothing in the last 6 months. Sales at the foundry are almost non-existent. Even more noticable are units listed at $1M or more in both the Powerhouse and the Foundry. They have sold less then 7 units combined. The bubble has popped in LIC and the rest of the city will is following, includiing Manhattan.

dco/lobo - have you seen recent data on new development resales? im guessing that some flippers were signing commitments for new devs in early/mid 2007, before speculation really dried up. 5sl, 10-63 and echelon come to mind as devs that hit the mkt early-mid 2007.

as the devs close, do u think its reasonable to see some ppl trying to unload their units close to their purchase prices (or even at small discount?). if anything, id save 10-20k on transfer taxes. i saw that some arris units have hit the rental market and the badge building suddenly has availabilities after being 100% sold for months.

i do like 5sl.. i even took a contract out in july '07, but didnt sign.

cb81 - The Powerhouse will have construction wrapped around it. The Hunters Point South development is somewhat ambitious but its most likely to happen (although a little less ambitious. Then the PH will have construction on the West & South (street facing) also. Add this to the rental development on the East and North side and you will have a lot of mess to deal with for the next 2-3 years (at the least). My guess is that construction will be slow if the economy slows (not good for tenants since they will have to deal with a crap around them for a long time).

As for the apts in PH, all the studios, 1 beds and 1 bd/HO (on the lower end) seem to be moving fast. As some of the other contributors in this discussion have mentioned, just because a unit can be afforded does not necessarily make it a sensible purchase!

sangm61- The waterfront area is the only part of LIC I would buy. I don't like the Citi-Corp building area and I hate the 59th street area. I predict that the waterfront will be the best bang for your buck. Your analysis of many if the sild units in most of these buildings(ie 5sl.) is right on the money. Thes units were sold 1-2 years ago off of blue prints. Some of those units will be worth a lot less when they close. Quite frankly if you were asking me for the loan I wouldn't lend you the money to buy a piece of property that is already below the amount you were requesting. People have paid over $1M for a condo that is now worth about $850,000. Truley some banks may not lend the money for these closings in the next 3 months.This is why many new development CAN'T lower prices to reflect the true market value. They must wait until these units have closed or risk lenders to see that the property is not being correctly valued. So your analysis is right on the money and you probably saved about $100,000 just by being logical. Good move. Many of the units will be right back on the market as soon as they close. I don't know how or why people would agree to purchase a year or two in advance. Life is not that predictable.

sangm61- The waterfront area is the only part of LIC I would buy. I don't like the Citi-Corp building area and I hate the 59th street area. I predict that the waterfront will be the best bang for your buck. Your analysis of many if the sild units in most of these buildings(ie 5sl.) is right on the money. Thes units were sold 1-2 years ago off of blue prints. Some of those units will be worth a lot less when they close. Quite frankly if you were asking me for the loan I wouldn't lend you the money to buy a piece of property that is already below the amount you were requesting. People have paid over $1M for a condo that is now worth about $850,000. Truley some banks may not lend the money for these closings in the next 3 months.This is why many new development CAN'T lower prices to reflect the true market value. They must wait until these units have closed or risk lenders to see that the property is not being correctly valued. So your analysis is right on the money and you probably saved about $100,000 just by being logical. Good move. Many of the units will be right back on the market as soon as they close. I don't know how or why people would agree to purchase a year or two in advance. Life is not that predictable.

I agree with DCO - the only area that is sustainable without lots of new development is the waterfront area. I don't see there being much new development after this summer for 2 reasons:

1) end of 421-A
2) the current RE market

That is why i think that the waterfront is the only area worth buying (and by waterfront I mean 47th ave - the railroad and from the waterfront - jackson ave.

That area has a number of projects that will be completed by the end of this year you have the waterfront you have Vernon ave (retail).

I do agree that the market is not the same, and that it will certainly soften. DCO and I agree on most things but I do not see prices in the 500 - 600 range. 800psf seems to be the phsychological barrier. Even since the new year, units under 750psf have continued to sell. It's when you break through 800 that people seem to back away.

I do not think that the powerhouse is a fair comparison - the building promised to be more than it turned out to be. The Foundry is also pushing the envelope.

sangm61 - you had mentioned the Echelon and 10-63; echelon is already mostly sold/opened and there have not been many resales - I think that you find less reslaes in the smaller buildings.

10-63 also is smaller; it was not early to mid last year, I beleive that the office opened in October (not sure on that date). That building is now over 80% in contract.

5SL - yes, they opened early last year and then sales seemed to taper off - but, per my theory, that was once they broke through the 800psf mark.

Anyhow, I agree with DCo - this is not a great market to be buying in. Second, new construction is always a risk. sometimes, you get a good deal, and sometimes you get screwed. As long as you are informed, some people will chosse to buy new construction becasue they are willing to take the risk, and that is OK. i am not currently buying - but I am willing to take more of a risk when I do.

Hello lobo- Good to hear from a knowledgeable person. And more importantly someone of is very familiar withe are. Oh by the way I guess I should have mentioned this before. My wife and I eye own a home. So if anyone thinks that I'm wishing for the market to collapse has not been reading my posts. I'll say it again my opinions are based on market indicators. The state of the real estate market terrible. Now we have not seen the huge reductions yet, but it 's coming and to invest in this market is like burning money. Despite what some people might think I like LIC (waterfront area only) in the long run. Just wait and you will be rewarded by saving enough money to send your kids to college

I looked at LIC before settling in Jersey City. Prices are way too high, especially considering that there is no retail infrastructure yet. I am not willing to wait 2-3 years, esp. if I'm already paying $700 psf.

I ended up paying $490 psf for a very large 1BR loft in Jersey City. 15 minutes to midtown, 7 minutes to downtown. Starbucks, Duane Reade, Shoprite, with a ton of cafes, restaurants are already opened. I walk 2 minutes to shoprite and can do all my grocery shopping there. Whole Foods is also scouting a location. Newport mall is a 5 min walk, and I recently went there this past weekend to buy some clothes. No sales tax in Jersey either, which adds up. Tons of development in Jersey City (including Trump and Toll Brothers) at more reasonable prices and WITH retail infrastructure in place already! Although Trump is asking around $800 psf I heard, but it's waterfront and views of the city and it has t "brand" name. Most places in JC are around $500-$700.

Sure, Jersey City may not have a true 421a tax abatement, but once those expire in LIC - the value of a condo in the area will drop dramatically b/c your new buyer will need to factor in that payment.

Anyway, not knocking LIC or condos there because I have some friends who purchased there. It's great commute to midtown, but I just didn't feel right paying $700 psf for something substantially smaller than the space I could get in JC, and then not having the conveniences of a Starbucks, or a real grocery store within walking distance.

I've read somewhere about the 421A tax abatement going away june of this yr. I've also read that new constructions don't necessarily have the tax abatement locked in (although very likely to satify all requirements to get approved once applied for) because by law they can only apply for it after the building is complete. So if these and future new constructions are going to be completed after this june date, they won't see that benefit?

Oops. Sorry, didn't mean to hijack a LIC thread. Just wanted to share my thoughts on the LIC market, since we had gotten a contract for a unit at 10-50 Jackson, but ended up not signing last year.

I didn't think resales were possible. OHP has something in the contract that you can't resell the condo you bought within 1 year of closing without having to give the sponsor 10% of the sale. I was told they do this to eliminate any competition to the sponsor while they are still trying to sell off their units.

NYCnewbie - I heard that you have to break ground before June to get the tax abatement, not be finished with the construction.

raymondtlee
Congrats. Great move. I'm curious why you pulled out?

Breaking ground by june in order to qualify for 421-A is correct. That is why so many buildings rushed to get started.

Hi raymondtlee - nice to meet you, I do agree with most of your post; however, I do feel that people will be surprised by the amount of retail that will pop-up before the beginning of 2009. If you go to contract now, you will not be moving in until then anyhow, so looking at the current state of retail is not a good way to judge. Although I hear you, you have already purchased and you did not want to wait for the ameneties to come - fair point.

Further to that, it comes down to personal preference; but the location of LIC vs. JC makes a big difference to some people. I realize that JC is close to downtown/midtown but it is hard to compare the ease of getting from LIC to main points in the city to JC -- I am not arguing against it, I am just saying that it is hard to compare the two becasue the areas appeal to different needs. I have a bunch of friends in West NY, and they are very happy there, but that is their personal choice - not mine.

DCO - I believe that the reason he pulled out of 10-50 (as you expressed curiosity in your last post) is what he stated in his first post: he prefers JC to LIC. And that is a perfectly good reason. But, your "congrats. great move." comment, which i assume is becasue you thought that he made the choice not to buy in the current market - is not what you meant by that. Unless you are congratulating on the JC purchase vs. LIC.

lobo- The reason why I asked was because it was not clear what the reason was. I mean he signed a contract in LIC and then backed out. He actually went a step further than just looking. So I'm curious why ray- backed out. Was it new job location, family, better bang for the buck or just didn't love the area. Something changed his mind.

My congrats was because I believe that it was a smart move in a downward market. The fact that he paid less in JC was a good move if the location works for him.

Nice to meet you guys as well.

The situation that we were in was ultimately based on commuting transportation since I work downtown and my wife works at 36th street. Commuting from Jersey City works perfectly for us as the PATH drops us pretty much a 5 minute walk away from our offices (my total commute condo-door-to-cubicle is 20 minutes and my wife is about 30 min). Yes, we were very, very close to signing the contract at 10-50 Jackson (we had put an initial deposit down and were going through the offering plan stage). But some factors didn't sit well with us, which I'll list here:

1) At the time of contract signing, 10-50 Jackson was still a hole in the ground and I was basically buying off a floorplan and a showroom.
2) They wanted $552K for a 713sq foot 1BR (it had a huge 1,044 terrace) on the 2nd floor, which works out to $774 psf!
3) We would have had to wait at least a year, if not two years before moving in. We were renting a really cheap 1BR in Woodside, and were getting antsy to buy a place. Though rent was cheap, it never truly felt like home. We did it so we could save more cash for the down payment. That was my objective, suck it up for a year and get something a year later.
4) Living in LIC would be tough, in terms of neighborhood amenities-wise. It would have been rough having to wait 2-3 years for stores to pop-up. In 2-3 years time, we are likely planning to start a family and we'd probably have to move into something larger and we'd have had to "suffer" during that timeframe. We needed more space than 700 square feet. At least 900.
5) This might sound silly, but the gym they were offering in the building was literally like a 15 by 15 room with two treadmils (says the offering plan or something along those lines)
6) And what clinched it was: lack of central air. Just a personal preference, but I don't like the in-wall units.

Ultimately, we backed out because it didn't make sense for us to purchase a 1BR that wouldn't be expandable for a baby/toddler. The lack of retail was a problem, and our commutes from there would involve having to switch trains along the 42nd street corridor. We decided to wait out the market because I just didn't see how LIC was starting to approach NYC prices, but without the infrastructure. At the time I thought it was overpriced (this was summer of '07 before the subprime and everything was still hot).

Then two different couples told us about Jersey City and how they had just brought new construction there for under $600 psf, including parking!

So we went and checked out the area, and instantly fell in love. Downtown JC is like a hidden gem, but more and more people are discovering it... which is only going to drive prices up here more.

So now I'm in a new construction large 913 square foot 1BR loft, which we will easily convert to a 2BR and still have a living room and full size dining room (very happy about that, being future-proof for a toddler). The 2nd room right now is currently my home office. And we paid less than $500 psf (unbelievable for such a location!), and we're only 3 blocks from Grove Street PATH. Additionally, I feel that since we paid such a low price, appreciation can happen here quicker ($500 psf to $700 is easier than say $800 to $1,000). Kinda like I said before, the infastructure here is already in place with numerous restaurants / cafes / starbucks / duane reade. It has more of a neighborhood feel and so much more convenient. We regularly buy groceries, fresh fruit, meat, and can cook at home too.

So overall - JC was a better bang for the buck for us, and just worked out better overall. Perhaps if I worked at 42nd street, then LIC may have been better option... but given my situation, JC was perfect. We bought and have not regretted one bit.

WOW. I had no idea I wrote so much. This little comment box is deceptively small....

ahhh, i guess that I tried ot put words in your mouth, sorry.

however, I still do not agree that $ psf in JC and LIC are comprable. If prices fall below their current level in LIC then they will fall below their current level in JC as well -- just as they will in fairfield county, westchester, etc.
-- but $ psf in all of these markets are not easily compared.

I could argue that Harlem or Williamsburg are somewhat comprable to LIC in therms of $ psf.

JC, West NY, Hoboken, Weehawken --- all comprable in terms of $ psf.

Please don't think I'm knocking LIC... I think it's a great investment over the next 5 to 10 years, and I'm sure retail infrastructure will be coming very very soon. Just personally JC was a much much much better option.

I agree. Williamsburg and LIC are comparable.

Jersey City is in a different category and also appeals to a different kind of buyer. I think of the downtown JC buyer as looking for most bang for their buck.

Downtown JC buyer - demographics wise - I believe is probably late 20's, early 30's. Looking for more convenience of daily living and wanting more space. I already see strollers out in force during the day. It's like a mini park slope...

Oh, I also do a blog on Jersey City, if you're interested. www.grovestreetjc.com

It's obviously pro-JC (sorry I'm biased).

Raymond - I like your comments and I appreciate your input. This has been one of the more civil threads in a while.

raymondtlee- You sound like a very happy and intelligent guy. I wish you and your wife all the happiness in the world. "And my your first child, be a masculine child". Thanks for the info on JC.

very helpful everyone thanks.. ive always thought the '10min to midtown' line was more of an indictment of LIC. if the main draw of the neighborhood is how fast it takes to get away, you'd really have to reconsider your reasons for living there.

well said. cb81

raymondtlee, thanks for your input. I was looking at LIC also. Where in JC are you?

I'm in the Powerhouse Arts District area of downtown Jersey City, which is about 2 blocks north of the Grove Street PATH station (a whole bunch of luxury towers are being built here). There are a bunch of mini-neighborhoods within Jersey City, but overall anywhere within 10 minutes walk of Grove Street is pretty terrific, imho. If you want to get a sense on Google maps, type in "Grove Street Path station Jersey City NJ."

I thought the best part of Jersey City is that it's a real neighborhood, not some transient place where Manhattanites sleep but never play in. There are bars here that the locals (typically your yuppie professional couple) hangout at, a thriving arts scene, boutique shopping, and excellent restaurants and cafes. For example, Kanye West's favorite soul food restaurant is just two blocks away from us (google Kanye West and Soul Flavors). There are parks to enjoy, and you can even have the convenience of owning a car here. The money we save from not paying NYC income tax will more than pay for a decent used car.

I'd love to give more information on JC if you're interested. Please check out my blog too, if you are so inclined. www.grovestreetjc.com

Like I said before, downtown JC will not fit everyone but I can see it being overlooked because it's traditionally been shunned. However now that we've found JC, we intend to stay here as well as perhaps raise our children here. Schools aren't JC's strength, but that is beginning to change as more well-heeled buyers are investing in the area and planting roots, and thus demanding better school systems. But in any case, I think the great part of downtown JC is that it doesn't advertise itself as being close to NYC, but rather that it is a destination in itself (just like Williamsburg, or Park Slope, etc).

Thanks for all the friendly comments. I'm glad we are having a civil discussion as well. I've seen some really amusing, entertaining threads that nonetheless were quite inflammatory.

Thanks for all the friendly comments. I'm glad we are having a civil discussion as well. I've seen some really amusing, entertaining threads that nonetheless were quite inflammatory.

just a wrench to throw in here about living in LIC -- having commuted between Qns and Manhattan via the #7 for 15 years, I wonder how much interested buyers and their brokers know about that commute. It is very short, but if you do it at peak rush hour, you may not even get on the trains, not even standing room. If you can't even squeeze yourself into a packed #7 train at around 9:00-9:30 am, you have no other options -- cabs are not waiting to pick you up around there, and even if they were, the bridge is a rough drive from there, and the tunnel.... well, you have to squeeze in at just the right entrance to the LIE. Walking is not an option, unlike if you live around Queensboro Plaza. The Ely station of the E/F is not much better. The LIRR does not help you, because that Hunts Point station is a terminus. Now and then you hear talk of "ferry," but I've never been convinced it's a steady, reliable, permanent service. You need to consider all of that. You can be stuck "so near, yet so far."

cb81 - what alternatives would you propose to people who want to be near manhattan but either can't afford it or are stuck in a stuffy coop with a view of a brick wall (which would be me; my view that is). I personally do not want to live somewhere that would involve a "commute". But at the same time, I would like to live in a new building with an actual view of something -- that means that I can't live in manhattan...well, maybe harlem, but I don't want to live there. So, in my mind, I am left with Willimasburg and LIC; that is becasue I don't work or hang-out downtown and I do not have a real interest in going there -- and yes, I realise that many people do, that's fine, for them. So, when it comes down to Willimasburg and LIC, I pick LIC becasue it is closest to work, and to me, that is important.

So, any options that I am left with will advertise proximity to Manhattan - and I admit it, it's becasue I can't afford the exact unit that I want in Manhattan - does that mean that I can't afford the city? no. It just means that I am not willing to settle (although I currently am) for a crappy unit, or being too far from where I want to be. Therfore, like most things in life, I need to look at the trade-offs: being too far vs. cutting back on space etc... Then I compromise.

While this is based on reality for me, I currently -- like dco -- am waiting to see what happens with the market; however, once I am ready to buy, LIC meets all of those compromises for me.

So, based on my needs, I take your comment: "10 minutes to midtown" as: being as close to where I want to be as I possibly can while balancing it with other things that I feel are important.

If you are a multi millionare, then please, move right into your coop on 5th avenue, and that is good for you, but it doesn't help me - otherwise, admit that you are living in a shoebox (exactly where you want to be) or that you have compromised and live in a place that meets your individual needs.

...or, you live in a rent controlled unit in a prime location and that is great for you, but unfortunatley we don't all have access to that.

So, no, I do not reconsider my reasons for wanting to live in LIC. And neither will many other people. Yes, there are many people who would take the shoebox in manhattan over LIC - and good for them/you -- but I do not agree with DCO on this one -- your comment is not "well said". live wherever you want to live for your own reasons but don't say "you'd really have to reconsider" say "I'd really have to reconsider" because not everyone agrees with you.

good night.

Great post Lobo. Not everybody can afford the multi-millionaire dollar apartments in the city, and so within 10 minutes proximity to Manhattan is an acceptable trade-off given how much more space you can get in LIC, Williamsburg. So the advertising of the 10 minutes from Manhattan is always one of the key selling points initially for any developing neighborhood.

Hey DCO - some great info on EC3 on this blog:
http://afinecompany.blogspot.com/

take a look, some great pictures too. The waterfront park is realyl coming along and the those lower terraces look amazing - I am sure that they are not the ones in my price range :)

Anyhow, it has a lot of good info and answers a bunch of the myths.

Lobo. Thanks. That's my blog. Glad you like it. If you search LIC in the top left corner, there is more. As a broker, I think information is vital. If you tell me your price range, i can tell you exactly what you might expect to get.

lobo- Great to hear from you. I do agree the building is looking good. I also think that LIC is not a bad area either. One thing is for sure. Im very excited to see if they can move these units at these prices. My guess is no. But I have said in the past that property is worth what someone is paying for it. If they get these prices I'll be the first to admit that they are worth the price. My reasoning why. Is that sales at other units in LIC were sold during a climate of easy credit and a great economy. Things have change. If this building can sell out completely with an average price of over $900, i'll call it a great succsess and agree that LIC is worth the money. That has been my contention all along. LIC at 600-700 sq ft. is what I consider market value TODAY. Not last year. I think this will be a great test for the neighborhood. 180 units is alot of units to sell, it will give me a better picture on where the local market is. Until then I'll continue to monitor sales in the area which hve just about froze. That's just natural give the state of the economy. Eventually people will start to feel better about their jobs and start looking. Or confidence stays negative and the market takes a big hit. We will know in the next 3-6 months.

nyfineman- What do you think $1m will get me in 6 months. I think this LIC area currently is not worth my investment.I'm leaning toward Manhattan. If prices were closer to $650 I'd say it was a good price or what do you think $1m will gey me LIC in 6 months.

-- Credit is getting harder and harder----------
http://wwwhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23914355/
.msnbc.msn.com/id/23731299/

does anyone else think that these units that were bought pre constr. will come back on the mrkt at lower prices in 6-9 months? what percentage can be expected? I'm hoping they do as I am willing and able to wait that long and I can avoid the hefty xfer tax.

My son bought a studio in mid-town in 2006. Loves his place. Likewise, his friend bought in the Badge Building recently and I had the pleasure of visiting. Futhermore, my daughter is in home improvements and has picked up some clients in the building as well as in the area. I've accompanied her on a few occasions to LIC because parking can be difficult. I must say, all of us agree that the community is really thriving. Most importantly, all the clients my daughter has met, love the area. I walked around and stopped into some of the shops and the only drawback I can see is the lack of a major supermarket and parking. I am amazed at all of the construction and of course, the skyline of Manhattan. If someone is buying with a 3 year horizon to sell, I'd say, look elsewhere. But if they're looking for a nice, affordable location within minutes of Manhattan, with a 5 year horizon, then I'd say, go for it. My daughter even mentioned that she has a friend living on the upper west side that commutes to Wall Street and her commute takes her somedays, 45 minutes. If I were working in mid-town, Long Island City whould be on my list of places to live.

NYCnewbie- Go to msnbc and look at the business section. Mortage companies have raised the standards much higher. There will be many units that will never close because the property is worth less to then it was 1-2 ago when you signed the contract. People are going to have to put more money down or risk the bank not granting the loan. If you don't think this will happen your not fully aware how bad things are in the credit crisis. Banks have already started taking credit lines away from people that have good credit. People are finding out that banks are reducing or closing their HELOC's and CC limits without even telling them. They don't even have to give you an explaination. This is something that I have been saying for sometime. NYCnewbie- This is why many new development can't lower their prices that much until the signed units close or banks will pull the financing from the buyer. If you agreed to buy a unit 1 year ago for 1M and you look for financing today and the building is currently maketing a similiar unit for $200 less the bank will pull the commitment. People that close in the next 6 months are going to see their units drop in value by a lot. After closing the building developers will be free to adjust to market rates. Its actually quite an interesting situation. Many people are in for a rude awaking when they are told to come up with another 10% OR RISK LOSING THEIR DOWNPAYMENTS.This is why I couldn't figure out why people would ever buy a unit 1-2 years in advance. I know that you get it at a lower price. Well up till now. Know imagine all the speculators in LIC that will not want to close because their units will be upside down. So flipping it is a lose. It's going to get ugly. Just Wait and It will pay off.

???

i think what nycnewbie was asking was whether we can expect speculators, who bought for the purpose of generating income, to put the units back in the market. that's a great question, and if arris is any indication, i think youll see some 5sl units put back into the market at a slight premium, or at cost. net of a discount of the ask, transfer taxes, opportunity costs etc, i think you should be able to come out ahead if you wait.

yup, and most LIC buildings that started selling in 2007 have no financing contingencies - it was to stop speculative buying. If I were buying as an investment and was at risk of losing 10% down, I would not be investing. Many of the newer projects (I would imagine) have less investors and more people buying to live. A number of them will also have a flip tax.

Just my opinion.

can't wait for all the inventory to choose from!

New Developments in general rarely have mortgage contingencies. This is not specific to LIC.

I agree that most "new" New York buildings have no mortgage contingencies. The flip taxes that some of the buildings in LIC are implementing, is a relatively new thing for new developments though.

NYCnewbie, I don't argue that there will be lots of new inventory (all over the city) but I don't think that what you will have to "choose from" will be what you expect. Most of the units with good views and nice layouts seem to be coming off the market...unless you are in the market for something in the higher price range (that would not be me).

In my opinion, I see a lot of people saying that they are waiting for prices to come down, and while I admit that slaes are slowing, places are still coming off the market -- and the number of new building in the works -- i snot what it was 2 years ago. I think that there is enough demand to fil the existing buildings and I don't see a lot of new supply coming on-line after these projects are finished (other than rental).

I copied this right off this website. As you can see the prices listed below WHICH WERE FROM the list of recently reduced prices in Manhattan. I would like to draw you attention to one in particular. Please note the Median price per ft at $1137. I'll say it again the median price per square foot for recently reduced units in MANHATTAN is $1137. So for every one who has been saying that you can't get something of equal size in MANHATTAN compared to the EC3 prices is dead wrong. Also please save the building has unbelievable amenities. I'm tired of people saying that. OH great they have a gym and a pool with 2 lanes. And for this they con you into thinking that you are getting some great benefit. Hello your paying for in you CC's. So in conclusion it's clear that LIC prices's are poised to tumble. EC3 is asking the same price per square foot as recently adjusted MANHATTAN units. WOW- can you imagine the people that signed contract 6 month's to 2 years ago still waiting for the project to be done. Some of these people will be upside down on the mortgage right out of the gate. And by the way some units are suppose to go for even higher price that the cheaper $1100 sq ft. If you buy in EC3 or any where else for over 650-700 sq ft. in the next year you will lose money the day you close. Give it a lot of thought. And to show I don't have anything against LIC my feelings are the same for any real estate for the next 12-18 months. Good Luck---This my friends is an indicator especially in a developing neighborhood. This neighborhood runs the risk of having development stall due to low demand and the credit crunch for both developers and buyers. Very dangerous times.Don't say you weren't warned

Sales in Manhattan
We found 211 listings where price changed less than 2 days ago
Median price: $1,080,583 Median size: 1,000 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,137
Information on Manhattan

in 2003 i paid 795 for my apt, in 2007 i sold it for over 1.3. oh and during that time my implied monthly cost was probably 1k a month cheaper then renting. WOW - can you imagine the people that rented during that time.

1,100 is the average in Manhattan. 1,100 is "top" of the market in LIC. "Top" of the market in Manhattan can go as high as $7,000psf.

Average in LIC is closer to 600psf (and that's the waterfront area). significantly less than 1,100.

so...1,100 compared to 5,000 is a huge difference when you look at the top of the market (I'm using 5,000 to be fair).

I'm not arguing which direction the market is heading in...but don't compare prices - becasue they are not comprable...that's all that I keep trying to say -- this is about LIC, not about the overall state of the market.

lobo- Good to hear from you. You make a good point that I am aware of as well. However my point is that Yes you can get an equal size unit in Manhattan for the same price. I'm fully aware that their is "high-end" and then their is "HIGHEND". The reason that I posted it was that I thought that it was interesting that it's the fact that an equal size place can be purchased in both Manhattan and LIC. The fact that's it the top of the market in LIC was not my point. I was just trying illustrate the fact that when people say LIC is a bargain they should know that's not the truth. That's why I referenced previous contracts pending to be very bad investments at point in the Market. So if you purchase a unit at these price you are agreeing to buy at a price higher than ever before. Remember if you purchase a a unit at $1100 sq ft. and someones else buys another one around the corner the same size at $700 the spread is almost double for a developing neighborhood. No question the $700 unit has a much better chance of increasing the % of value over the same period of time than does the $1100 unit. Lobo you actually make my point when you say the average price in LIC is $600. EC3 wants $1100 starting, that's almost double. That's a terrible investment for a developing neighborhood's that might slow in this environment. Again as I have stated before I think beside from the views, this building has two 3 huge issues:

1) 8 blocks to the Nearest Subway
2) No garage in the building (yes I know the garage is in another building, that's my point)
3) PRICE OF $1100 SQUARE FOOT TO START. $800 at the most. Market is $600

Hey DCO,

I don't disagree in general, and as I've said before, EC3 would not be my choice if I were purchasing.
However, my point was not exactly what you described above.

My point is that when you take an average -- in Manhattan -- that means (typically) a unit that is not in the greatest area, probably does not have much of a view and on a low floor.

On the flip side, when you get to the lower end of the range in LIC you are looking at a non-doorman, redbrick, multi family home.

When you look at the top end in Manhattan, you are looking at that $5,000psf apartment on 5th ave (no more describing needed for that).

When you look at the top end in LIC you can look at $800 - 1,100psf on the waterfront (I agree that 1,100 is high - but it's also high to me becasue no one has tested that price level yet).

Anyhow, the spread in LIC is double going from $600 - $1,100.

In manhattan it's more like 5 times as much -- and again, I used 5,000psf to be fair, as we all know, $psf can go much higher than that in manhattan.

So, my point is; someone could choose to live on West 55th street just off of 6th avenue (in a very touristy are - that most people would not find very attractive, for $3,500psf (possibly more) and afford a 2 bedroom place with a mediocre view... or, they could live in EC3 in a 4 bedroom with a huge terrace and still have money left over to take a cab through the mid-town tunnel everynight -- or have the valet bring their car to the lobby every morning and leave money to park inthe city every day.

Anyhow, like I've said...I don't agree that the overall state of the market is grea. I would also not choose EC3 out of personal taste - but I do not agree with the comparison.

lobo- Maybe I need to explain my point clearly and much more simply. I do agree that at times it is difficult to compare Manhattan and LIC. It's much like in many way comparing Apples and Oranges. We both agree that it is a difficult comparison. But the problem is that it's the developers that are the one trying to make the comparisons not just the buyers. They are marketing LIC like it's Manhattan. These are their marketing ploys. They want the buyer to think that they are in Manhattan but at a far less price. Nothing can be further from the truth. That's why you hire a marketing firm in the first place. It's their job to make think that you need a product. So if making a comparison between LIC and Manhattan is something that people don't believe in or think it's apples and oranges then it's not me they should have the argument with, its the developers. lobo- look at listings in Manhattan. And I'll go a step further and say look at listings below 96th st ( that has always been the border I use). And look for 2beds/2baths asking $1.2M-1.3 (which as we know is negotiable) and see how many come up. You will be surprised that same sized units with the same configuration that EC3 is marketing are available. Hence you can absolutely get the same in Manhattan for the price of EC3. The only difference it may not be in brand new building. Ofcoure you may also be able to walk to work and actually have stores for that price as well. So the "new building" may not be that attractive give the alternatives. And where do you think your money in the short or long term would be better spent. lobo- I don hear you when you say that your not a fan of EC3. I'm just using this new "it" building as an example of how developers are fooling people into thinking that this area is worth the money. It's not manhattan. Also look at desirable areas in brooklyn. I'm sure you do. I just wanted to pointout the inventory is piling up and developers are starting to offer incentives like 2 years paid CC. Thing have changed and some will lose money and other will make out. I wouldn't toucha piece of real estate in this environment for the next 12-18 months. 10% reduction on $1m is $100,000. Thats alot of money saved or used for a bigger unit.

lobo- correction- I do Hear you about EC3

lobo- I found something that is interesring and don't quite know what exactly happened. The Powerhouse had listed that they had a contract on a 3 bed unit with direct views of the city. Well at least for now they have the direct view. The contract price was $1.9M. However if you go to the website you will notice that it is no longer listed anythere. It is still listed on this site. What gives. Is it possible that the people backed out or couldn't get financing. I truly don't know. Just wondering what you thought.

that's a good question.
I don't think that it would have been a financing issue since the building is nowhere near closing. Maybe it was a mistake or maybe the buyer had a contingency in their contract that let them get out. It is strange though.

by the way.
Just heard a rumor that EC3 may be part rental.

lobo- I'm not surprised that EC3 may have half rentals. I actually think in this climate that it should just rent the whole thing. If it goes rental or even half it's just another indicator of how bad things really are. I would never buy in a building with 50% rental. How good is your info. Ec3 going 50% rental. Also if they are thinking of this I can't imagine the other developments in the area are going to be selling to many units either. At $650 square foot it will still struggle but sell. At $1100 it doesn't have a prayer.The market is just to soft and getting worse by the day.

lobo- The $1.9 at the Powerhouse is back up. Probably games by the developer.

it's not back up on the elliman website though. who knows...

although, if all of the units that don't have "open house" listed next to them actually have contracts out, then sales seem to have picked up significantly. It looks like 50% of the "available" units are not having open houses -- which usually means that someone has taken the contract and has 10 days to sign.

so where do we stand on this? i've been a bit out of the loop of the LIC market... how's it faring?

Seems like most buildings still selling have had significant price cuts (east coast building most recently), the view and others are now renting (someone posted 30% of building for rent on another thread)...

time until LICComment posts with a crazy-eyed, wildly uninformed rant about the health of LIC real estate:

15 minutes

Now putz, when have I ever done anything like that?
As far as I know, and I'm not a broker, LIC has slowed along with everywhere else, but is holding up relatively ok. Some top-quality buildings that are priced in the $700psf range are still getting sales. Not nearly at the rate of early last year, but there are still sales. Buildings that were overpriced to begin with aren't selling.
I miss dco, I hope that guy starts posting again.

> LIC has slowed along with everywhere else, but is holding up relatively ok

LIC, are you saying that LIC has declined less than the overall NYC market?