Fairfield, CT down 12%

Is Manhattan RE immune from the 2013-2016 "Aftershock" described in Bob Wiedemer's new book?

Calling all se financial smart folks.

I find this odd too, are other close-to-NYC suburbs being hit this hard in NJ, NY?

I thought this article was quite interesting.

JimBob's Manhattan remains defiant point is one thing. The Manhattan-is-different true believers may say that prices in CT (Westchester, wherever) don't matter because more young families want to stay in Manhattan now, foreigners don't want suburbs, etc. That may all be true, to a point, but I look at it as follows: (1) at any given time, prices and rents in Manhattan and the 'burbs are what they are and people are living where they live. An equilibrium of sorts. (2) if CT prices fall 12%, there will be some Manhattan residents who were close to their indifference point with CT housing costs at 100 who prefer CT when it costs 88. The article seems to refer to one such example when it notes that the failed seller of the $2.7mm house instead rented it to a NY investment banker. Similarly, there may be a few CT residents (e.g., empty nesters) who were thinking of moving to the city but don't when city prices hold firm but the value they can get for their CT house falls 12%. (3) I would expect that any flow from city to suburbs (or foregone flow from suburbs to city) would be a slow bleed rather than a flood and as a result difficult to impossible to measure in terms of market impact.

The $2.7mm house that is now rented is also interesting. Annual rent is $132k. Can anyone who knows the CT market hazard a guess at property tax and insurance so we can guess at implied cap rate? 4-ish% looks likely at the asking price, higher based on market value if you think that a property unsold at $2.7mm would clear at $2.5mm or $2.3mm or whatever.

He says inflation staring 2013: (20%?)
gas:$28 a gallon
Stock and RE market collapse

Don't invest in RE
Sell if you can
Refinance if you have an adjustable
pay minimum on fixed-rate
pay off car loan
pay off credit cards
gold will continue to be safe haven until next decade
buy gold from gold depositary, ETFs, gold mining stocks
short term bonds -- no long term
agriculture commodities...

His new book includes a "hidden chapter" explaining a hidden bubble, the chapter is not in the book available on Amazon or retailers -- it's too scary.

You can get a free copy of his book (for $47) order includes "Ultimate Wealth Report", from NewsMax.com

Should we spring for the 47 bucks?
Anybody know what "the hidden bubble" is?

inonada? financeguy? jason?

While the high end gets the press coverage, there's plenty of pain lower down the food chain. Here's an example: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/65-Rockwell-Rd-Ridgefield-CT-06877/57346328_zpid/

That's an antique 4BR/2.5BA farmhouse, in one of the nicest towns in Connecticut, with updated kitchen and baths, within walking distance of the excellent elementary and middle schools, now asking HALF of the price the owners paid in 2006. Not a dream house, maybe, but $350K?

Give it time, manhattan will come down too.

Drop more

Half Eddie. Half.

If one banker will move to CT for $127k in rent. $60k in rent for a '$2.5mm ask home' in ct There would be x number of bankers moving.

W67 is thinking more than 2. Maybe even 20.

From my sojourn in CT, it seems that the low end in towns with easy commutes to NYC (Westport, Greenwich, Darien, etc) has bounced back pretty well as young folks are priced out of NYC, while the higher end has gotten absolutely demolished. In the towns that are much less convenient (Weston, Ridgefield, etc), all bets are off.

> I find this odd too, are other close-to-NYC suburbs being hit this hard in NJ, NY?

not odd at all, the banks are finally foreclosing around Manhattan. that's all.

So, in 2013 w67th has Sprint worth 2 million bucks?
Weston and Ridgefield can't give RE away?

notadmin: Is it time to buy Manhattan/N.Y.C. RE now? (Apartments that can be rented).

> Give it time, manhattan will come down too.

Exactly, only the naive buy in this mkt, which is good for everybody but themselves.

With so many needing to live somewhere, is it good if I buy something to rent out?

Give it how much time from now?

One of the issues with CT is that finance jobs are leaving CT and returning to NYC. UBS is moving bankers by the truckload back to the city. The 'suburban investment bank' experiment failed.

Also foreigners, a driver of the Manhattan mkt, don't want suburbs. Also the secular trend of families staying in the city.

So then, Manhattan RE is going back up?

2nd biggest jump in foreclosure notices..... >

It ain't over by a long shot. When 3 acre Greenwich homes go or $1mm what right do 2bdrm walkups have asking $1mm in manhattan.

No market operates in a vacuum.

nyc is at history-high, and with obailout in office, fliipers and deadbeats continue to live well, wake up, dudes

Final capitulation cometh to Greenwich. Manhattan cometh soon.

So if it's not over by 2013 -- then it's really over all over?

I would think that if anybody would know what the "hidden bubble" is, it would be w67thstreet.
How soon for RE?

Call it like it's Sprint.

The rental market is yielding great deals in many locations. Remember rhino's search? A lot of people don't consider renting in the burbs, or year-round for a weekend home, but there is a great deal of opportunity for such renters right now.

dunno bout cos cob land, but in North NJ 1st ring suburbia with train towns jumped in sales price last year.. dunno what the case is today, haven't been reading much..

http://www.ridgewoodnj.net/main_recent.cfm?ArticleID=867

"manhattan centric" (ie train?) towns seem to do well, as well as NYC.. probly cause when the country's unemployment swells, people flock to cities for jobs (save on car premiums/gas/tolls to hookers to deal with high suburban/rural depression, and instead walk 3 blocks to said hookers)

Have some big $ Germans here.
Are they investing in Manhattan RE? No.
Big $ Swiss here.
Are they investing in Manhattan RE? No.
They think se RE discussions are hilarious.

> It ain't over by a long shot. When 3 acre Greenwich homes go or $1mm what right do 2bdrm walkups have asking $1mm in manhattan.

LOL, w67th, when do you think you'll see 3 acre Greenwich homes go for $1mm ?

> While the high end gets the press coverage, there's plenty of pain lower down the food chain. Here's an example: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/65-Rockwell-Rd-Ridgefield-CT-06877/57346328_zpid/ That's an antique 4BR/2.5BA farmhouse, in one of the nicest towns in Connecticut, with updated kitchen and baths, within walking distance of the excellent elementary and middle schools, now asking HALF of the price the owners paid in 2006. Not a dream house, maybe, but $350K?

w81th, that's an extreme example, and you'd bee hard pressed to find 50% drops like that. I bet they don't need the money, and can write a check and move on. They might be going overseas. That may be a good deal for someone.

Ebabrah: Good post. That's where I see the lines drawn too.

Dealboy: Yes, 50% is extreme. 30% is typical for these markets. Unfortunately, even 30% is well past the "event horizon" where a majority of buyers who got in at or near the peak are underwater - including well-qualified borrowers who put substantial amounts down. What happens next? No clue.

Thank you for an honest answer,West81st.

w81 -- ouch, they bought for 675k in 2006. But I think if someone is spending in that area, they want some more land than 0.4 acres

Funny how dumb boy is in denial, and his stupid renters rant continues.

I'll tell you that low end homes here in Southbury CT are selling rather quickly lately...here were 2 on my block that sold

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/436-Judd-Rd-Southbury-CT-06488/82406391_zpid/
*after a length time on market, horrible location right on a curve and right on road and mostly land that is unusable and not aesthetically pleasing

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/544-Judd-Rd-Southbury-CT-06488/57993483_zpid/
*family got relocated, sold in like 2 weeks..but i think zillow got price wrong, i was told it sold right near full ask with multiple offers

Around the block:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/151-Reservoir-Rd-Southbury-CT-06488/57993121_zpid/
*loved this house, but sold at full ask rather quickly

This is in the Southbury CT area..80 min or so from nyc, so more in 2nd home territory...but goes to show you how some places are doing ok even farther out, others arent.

Thanks for digging that up, Noah.
There are no hard and fast rules for buying there.

but what about this one?

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/831-Fish-Rock-Rd-Southbury-CT-06488/58948113_zpid/

sold in 2003, for 499,900. on the market for 499 days, now asking 399,900.

columbiacounty
2 minutes ago
Posts: 10767
Member since: Jan 2009
stop ignoring this person
report abuse

but what about this one?

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/831-Fish-Rock-Rd-Southbury-CT-06488/58948113_zpid/

sold in 2003, for 499,900. on the market for 499 days, now asking 399,900.

It must be awesome to go onto a website and within a few minutes be an expert on a local real estate market.

yes...it is.

CC - that area below S Britain, between exits 13-14 is not the nicest around this area. I havent seen the house or the immediate area around the house, but my guess is the land variable + location variable is hurting this one. If that was more north, Im sure the list history would be different. But with these houses, its so unique to the property..so many houses look great and big, but when you visit them the first impression is "ugh" as you view how the house is situated and the immediate surroundings, proximity to highway or something else, etc. All I know is I searched for a farmhouse kind of getaway for 2 yrs, must have saw 35 places or so in total, not crazy i know, but in the end, 98% of the stuff we saw was shit in regards to how the house presented and how it was situated.

This house is a good example

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/145-Aspetuck-Ridge-Rd-New-Milford-CT-06776/57806887_zpid/

We loved this one online and through everything we can research online. We were so high on it. When we got there, boy did it suck the way it was situated..total deal killer for us

yes, because everything anyone needs to know is on the internet.

here's one that's going to lose in Pelham. but what is really striking is the tax history. taxes nearly doubled in 2009.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/77-Highbrook-Ave-Pelham-NY-10803/33080991_zpid/

digs, it's a comp. a few years ago somebody was willing to pay a certain amount, and no one is now. unless the quality has deteriorated markedly, it doesn't matter.

i'm actually quite familiar with the area as our first second home was in oxford and we must have looked at at least 100 houses during our time there. i think you would be amazed by what the whole area looked and felt like before ibm announced their big new facility there.

either way, though, the point is that the example i cited did actually sell (assuming that zillow got it right) previously at a significantly higher number.

AR - i guess my general point is that 1 or 2 non-selling properties versus peak levels may not accurately reflect whats happening in a local market. Its so unique to each property, just like here in Manhattan.

but it can also be looked at as a first sign of serious weakness, when only the prime properties sell those who have saved and wish to move up to better have a much harder time doing so because the market can no longer support anything but the nicest.

aha...yea I heard stories how Woodbury told IBM 'we dont want u' as they are anti-franchise and wanted to keep the town in the old NE style..whereas Southbury was more than happy to get IBM adding to their tax base. I got luck I guess, we r right on border of Southbury/Woodbury, closer to main street north in woodbury but get the lower taxes of southbury. Love this area for a 2nd home...had no idea it was this beautiful up here.

CC - u ever been to 121 rest?

nope.

our big dining spot was Oxford House.

just checked google and found this article about poor Oxford House. ironic in light of this discussion.

http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Historic-Oxford-House-closes-2181839.php

While there is no doubt some softness in the Fairfield Co market, a couple of observations: the Bloomberg article reports on a survey of the MEDIAN price. Obviously, market dynamics,especially at the high end,(i.e., lack of sales at the high end) will cause the MEDIAN selling price to decline. Also, Fairfield Co is a very localized marketplace: school quality varies greatly by town and many view Fairfield Town (Brideport border) as the longest tolerable commute. Rather than looking at median price surveys similar to the Bloomberg article, UConn has put togehter a very extensive and comprehensive survey on a town-by-town basis, which holds CONSTANT for the size/quality of the home. This is much more of an apple-to-apple price trend comparison. So, rather than the many doomsday scenarios proferred above, strength continues at the mid-tier and lower-tier levels in certain areas like Darien, Bridgeport, Greenwich, Stamford: all these towns are along the MetroNorth and I-95 corridors within arguably a commute to NYC. See the raw data for yourself:
http://darien.patch.com/articles/darien-home-values-rise-in-second-quarter

"Obviously, market dynamics,especially at the high end,(i.e., lack of sales at the high end) will cause the MEDIAN selling price to decline."

It is so funny that no one points this out in Manhattan. The market dynamics, especially at the high end, (i.e., the foreign buying of $50mm condos) will cause the MEDIAN selling price to rise"

$50MM condos are NEVER 2BR/BA's. That's the only price data I look at in Manhattan: 2BR/2BA; happen not to care about anything else.

if you actually put in darien and the second quarter, the graph shows that current year second quarter pricing is roughly equivalent to 2003/2004.

house is a good example
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/145-Aspetuck-Ridge-Rd-New-Milford-CT-06776/57806887_zpid/
We loved this one online and through everything we can research online. We were so high on it. When we got there, boy did it suck the way it was situated..total deal killer for us

Can you explain what was so bad about the house?

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1539-Shippan-Ave-Stamford-CT-06902/57368602_zpid/

looks like they've spent some money on it too.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/65-Ellsworth-St-APT-316-Bridgeport-CT-06605/57235539_zpid/

Oooh. W67 likey likey shippan one. I'll let my sprint position double and pick that up for 1/2 Off.

$2.5mm swing in 2 yrs. nice. Let $3.5mm grow for 15 yrs and spend like Bernie at 60.

Till then w67 rents.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/668-Glenbrook-Rd-APT-35-Stamford-CT-06906/57384015_zpid/

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/79-Strickland-Rd-Cos-Cob-CT-06807/57312165_zpid/