S&P Made Another 4 year high Today............

I like your optimism but need meaningful job growth for any recovery to be sustained. Today's ADP jobs report builds on a positive trend. Tomorrow's unemployment figures should continue to point to modest jobs recovery. Economy is still not moving forward under its own steam which is why FED is still poised to add stimulus. My opinion NYC RE flat at best for next 2-3 years. But I do agree we bounced off bottom.

Let's see what the SnP does today with that payroll #.

7.9 unemployment on Nov 2 (last number released before election day). Election over. Obama gets another four years.

The broader measure also fell to 14.7% from 15. So its a "real" drop. Frankly, though, the people dropping out of the labor force are probably people retiring early. Its meh. Neither terrible or great for O or Mittins.

...and the proof is the S&P futures are still positive 30 minutes after the report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-futures-pare-gain-as-treasuries-rally-on-jobs.html

...which could mean yikes is right. People assume from this more Fed stimulus.

I am having trouble committing anything but IRA funds to the market (those are on fire though!) Do we not fight the fed and just go all in until we are told otherwise (by the fed).

http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif

disgusting pump, disgusting bubble

that's why we fellow democrats dump bam

S&P made another 4 year high this morning, even after a lousy jobs report. Unemployment down to 8.1% but job creation was disappointing. I agree with uwsbeagle, unemployment below 8% before the election. Ain't manipulation a wonderful thing?

Let's wait for the revisions after the election.

S&P made another 4 year high this morning, even after a lousy jobs report. Unemployment down to 8.1% but job creation was disappointing. I agree with uwsbeagle, unemployment below 8% before the election. Ain't manipulation a wonderful thing?

So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?

"So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?"

Make sure you sell before that happens. You know what they say, "Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered."

LOL,
The guys at CNBC will come up with some reason that supports the market's going up even more.

"So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?"

Sigh. Perma-ignorance.

1)They don't NEED to unwind them, they can just hold to maturity.
2) If they feel the need to unwind them, its because THE ECONOMY WILL BE GROWING FASTER than it is now and yet inflation will NOT be rampant.

Good thing I didn't short the index again.

revisions in which direction?

perhaps RS might learn something this time:

"The Biggest Thing Paul Ryan Gets Wrong About The Fed"...and RS too.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-on-qe-2012-9#ixzz25nUKAC6T

That is a rather amazing prediction RENY. Most economists and banking financial managers predict a downturn next year. I could name about 20 notable, reasonable financial managers off the top of my head that are very circumspect about future growth next year. From 0 - 2%. And if fiscal cliff does not resolve itself, the hit to GDP will be tremendous. So, after a 100% run up in the market, what kind of rise in the market are you predicting.

Which begs the topic -- why, if I have nearly doubled my investments this last year, why should I buy rather than rent. Why not wait for a significant downturn before buying. Why not move even more cash into gold and ride it up the predicted 20% plus before cashing out to buy a depreciating apt as rates rise.

Apt23: I was applying the same logic (since for various reasons I'm not selling my RE) to shorting the stock market. It hasn't worked for me thus far.

"So, after a 100% run up in the market, what kind of rise in the market are you predicting."

My original post said I thought we had seen a bottom in the housing and stock market long ago. If I could predict what the market will do next year, I wouldn't be wasting time on this forum, I'd be relaxing on Lake Como near my Italian Villa. LOL!

"Why not wait for a significant downturn before buying."

How long have you been waiting for that "significant" downturn. I don't see any big increases but I believe real estate will bump along for the next year or two without any significant movement up or down.

On a more current note, any opinions on ADNC, down 68% today, worth investing a few dollars??

Hahahhaaaaaaaaaa. Hahhahahaaaaa. Haahhahahahahahaaaaas.

Just stfu and buy sprint if you wanna make money. Vote Romney if you like it thru the back door. Buy real estate NOW to make the borkers happy.

If you like buying shitz to impress other 'rich' ppl bc your daddy made money by selling gold teeth from dead victims of the nazi regime, go buy manhattan RE!

If you clip coupons and worry about data overage charges, wait till double coupon days that'll make nyc re 1/2 off in 2 yrs to buy real estate in manhattan! 2yrs. W67 /mr. V has called it.

Economy on the mend. Interest rate normalized. RE down the shitter. Simple arithmetic. But we got 100mm that'll vote Rimjob. -shrug- its alright there are sprint shorters toooooooo.

W67 needs dummies to make more money. It makes it so so easy.

Fool me once..
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/stocks-bonds-inflows-outflows/?iid=HP_LN

Fool me twice..

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20120907/FREE/120909962

nyc10023: you might get your chance to short-a-plenty this fall. In fact, i was thinking of shorting the spy on sept 11. The german courts come out with their ruling on the constitutionality of germany participating in bond buying w/ecb on the 12th. The german newspapers have gone ballistic since draghi came out with latest plan. It is a total long shot and it is definitely not in the market. if the courts come out with a big fat no --possible not probable-- i think there will be a giant whoosh down. if not -- cover your shorts.

> All indicators for Manhattan Real Estate are pointing up relative to a year ago.

Except for, you know, prices.

> S&P MADE ANOTHER 4 YEAR HIGH TODAY............

I sold off another few percentage points today, getting closer to target allocation (although this rise undid the shaving I did a few weeks ago in terms of %%).

I think we can pretty clearly say stock has been the better bet last few years, can't we?

Don't fight the Fed is the expression.

>I sold off another few percentage points today,

Whatever happened to yikes/Wbottom's thread on real time trades? Did that thread not catch on?

Would be good to know who is smarter, yikes or somewherelse. You know, since the high school rivalry that seems to still be relevant.

Just checked the SSOs for fun... most are gone, but I kept some for the memories.

Ok, most are in the 200%s, but the two best-times lots...
+318.47%
+316.19%

SWE:I think we can pretty clearly say stock has been the better bet last few years, can't we?

I guess so. What apt owner can say they made 90-100% in the last 18 months on their investment. When you add the multiplier of buying/selling options/puts, the upside is off the charts. Damn those guys that only pay 15% taxes on those trades-- it is not right.

I am in a fairly conservative portfolio -- cause after all, most of it is "my apartment " that I sold in 2005. I will be taking profits to pay for the next two years of rent. I feel like I am living rent free.

I didn't have the balls to go all in on sprint like w 67. But I got a nice chunk and at 100% in a matter of months, you gotta think -- wow, i am one helluva happy renter. w67 will have his choice of classic 6 or 7 bitches. I will be able to add a nice, large laundry room that I never expected in my NY lifestyle. But I am way overextended in gold and think I will buy above my dreams if it hits 2000. Thank you Mr. Bernanke. You will always have a room in my new apt. And I will be happy to do your very starchy shirts in my dedicated Sprint Center for laundry and delicates.

>w67 will have his choice of classic 6 or 7 bitches.

?

> What apt owner can say they made 90-100% in the last 18 months on their investment.

Well, there might be some who lost that much (when leveraged 5x or 10x).

I could never find anything that appropriately hedged away RE risk.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate.

Bill Gross of PIMCO spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle, Adam Johnson and Alix Steel on “Lunch Money” today, reiterating comments in his monthly outlook that the age of credit expansion that led to double digit returns is over. Gross said, “Those days are over…Pension funds and individuals and investors that expect 10% consistent returns to pay those bills are going to be disappointed.”

Gross also said that the price of gold “will be higher than it is today and certainly a better investment than a bond or stock, which will probably return only 3% to 4% over the next 5 to 10 years.”

http://wallstreetpit.com/96380-double-digit-returns-from-stocksbonds-are-over-pimcos-gross/

Stfu! Has anyone made $1mm in 4 months with their own capital? No, then stfu.

Buy some cream cheese and prepare for the open houses. Go get your nails done, pick out your outfit and key Sherpa around tomorrow. Just stfu and buy nyc re. Therez tons around. Its like me buying 1 fking share of sprint and jawboning about my $2.4 or 100% return. If one is good, 100k is better and 375k shares is the best!!!

Just stfu and buy nyc re bf all the oligarch's daughters beat ya to it. Just stfu.

Re borkers living in midtown east should just stfu. 'hindsight?' is that when you look backwards bf someone 'gives it to you?'

Here iz some foreskin sight. Sprint will double again. Nyc will be 1/2.

SO i was wondering. is it better to buy RE when the SnP makes a 4 yr high or 4yr low?

Frick(w67) & Frack(Brooksie), Frick BS's about his fortune and Frack eats it up. LOL!

Frack I hope Frick has let you in on the secrets to his BS success. Ha, Ha, Ha !!!

Tick toc tick toc.

The open houses toll for thee....

$1mm in sprint gain in 4 months. Yes I'm bragging on an anonymous re forum. Why not $10mm then? Flmaozz.

Stfu re Borker.

RS- Bill Gross still has not recovered from his idiotic statements about equity market returns not being able to outpace nominal GDP growth...you know, when he FORGOT that half the return over the past 100 years has been from DIVIDENDS? The guy is not the end all be all.

Oh, and he too has been totally wrong on Rates and inflation.

"How Bill Gross' wrong call on bonds has cost his Pimco investors"

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/bill-gross-pimco-total-return-bond-fund-returns-2011-treasury-bet-recession.html

"Come On, Bill Gross! Please Stop Insulting People And Fix Your Mistake! [about the stock market]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-bill-gross-is-wrong-about-stock-returns-2012-8#ixzz25vCdyJ2L

Real unemployment is 4 percent which represents unemployment for college grads. There is a shortage of skills in this number such as forensic accountants, nurses, auto engineers, programmers, Algo developers. Thus, we have a low vacancy rate in new York. New York is for talented and not the wishful. Couple this with high levels in stock market , gold prices, foreign buyers, this points to boom conditions and rising residential manhattan prices. What new normal? Don't believe this propaganda of unemployment you read in newspaper. It is mostly teenage high school dropouts or vp wannabes. As the fed prints money all of this will lead to a surge in apartment prices. Buy or die!

Hey reny. Happy key Sherpa day!

"Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate."

Of course, most folks don't leverage their stock bets...

Took more off the table today.

I missed key Sherpa day? how did that happen? is there an appropriate hallmark card to mark the occasion?

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate."

The Case-shiller 20 city index is down approximately 28% from 196 to 142.

The SPXT - the S&P Total Return (which includes dividends or assumes dividend reinvestments) was 2423 five years ago and is 2364 today. So down 2%.

So not exactly the same.

____________________________

"Of course, most folks don't leverage their stock bets..."

Ummm...options market? Futures market? Anyone? Lots of plain, retail-oriented ETFs, mutual funds, and insurance company products aimed at grandma invest in S&P 500 indices etc. (Think a capital protection fund.)

Again, most people don't. But the point is that a huge share of RE downpayment money is leveraged significantly, and the average person doesn't do the same with their stock bets.... making things look even worse for RE comparatively.

>Again, most people don't. But the point is that a huge share of RE downpayment money is leveraged significantly, and the average person doesn't do the same with their stock bets.... making things look even worse for RE comparatively.

What the hell does one have to do with the other? You don't live in your stocks and generate monthly imputed income under your control, making things look even worse for stocks comparatively.

Yes, you generate actual income instead with stocks.

Markets are at record highs....gold up. Luxury properties exceed 2007 highs in new York, Paris, London etc, apple new high, 3 carat diamonds, art, channel bags, princeton tuition, healthcare insurance....all at new highs. Car engineers getting 100k, union laborers in new York getting 100 per hour, etc etc. The desirable dear things in life ....all at new highs. There is no recession for the those want to live well and have good education and skill. This translates into good opportunities for rising new York city condo prices.

"The Case-shiller 20 city index is down approximately 28% from 196 to 142."

Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better.

Median manhattan selling price is still down 15+%. Not quite sure about that "better" thing.

Also, we left out inflation...

> Luxury properties exceed 2007 highs i
Of course, the big number ones are new properties. Doesn't say rise, just more appetite. The average price for high end report came out a few weeks back (and discussed on this board) and it was actually down.

"This translates into good opportunities for rising new York city condo prices."
For the top few, perhaps. For the mass remaining... that wouldn't be very logical.

RENY dies not use logic

"Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better."

Yes. And Priceline and Apple are both up like 500% over that time.

Sprint is up 120% from Jan 1... but I only rode it up 100% in 4 months.... so I feel like I didn't waste my time tying up my money for 8 months for the 20%.. .and I do truly feel sorry for the moron that rode it up 20% in 8 months and was smacking himself on the back for being a genius.....

And yes, I've been that dude who got the first 20% right and missed the 200% after... but NOT THIS TIME BABY!

No sleep till BROOKLYN (and/or Sprint at $15/share).. but I'm out at $10.

RENY: "Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better."

Not really. The SE index has 2192 at the peak vs. 1970 today, so down 11%.

"Yes. And Priceline and Apple are both up like 500% over that time."

Nice to cherrypick after the fact.
Apple was at $200 a share in 2007, how does that compute to 500%?

Priceline is still down $350 per share from where it stood in 1999, or did you forget that?? Do you know any real estate that lost a third of it's value since 1999?

How about General Motors, AIG, Kodak, Nokia, Hewlett Packard, and I could go on and on.

Cherry pick?

I'm long sprint and short your fking pos midtown east condo/coop...

Both my long and short are slaying the mkts. You are long NYC re and short apple/sprint/coned.... By definition you are getting slayed. Bend over.

io went from 7% to 3% since 2007...... Done by Bernie magic stick. If you don't understand how 400bps swing in long rates impacts fixed income 'assets/liabiliities' you've no business in business. But that's right you sell re for a living. A fking shoe salesman.

@w67thstreet, As a (mostly) passive reader of this forum, I'd just like to let you know that we all get it. You made $1mm on sprint. Congratulations (seriously, it's a nice accomplishment and I get why your excited). However, I'm also perplexed by your acute disdain for NYC RE yet your continued obsession with this forum.

It has gotten old to say the least. Could you try to contribute something else to the conversation?

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing."

It wasn't hindsight, babe... I called it (and the brokers laughed).

"Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago."
You are cherry picking. It isn't down since I started calling for the buy...

"Much like real estate."

No, not like real estate. Medians are much further down than the stock market... not to mention the leverage.

"Nice to cherrypick after the fact. '

And so too did you.

Exactly.

In the end, since the stock bust, stock has been the right call... (where RE continued to fall significantly after).