powerhouse LIC ANY THOUGHTS

The whole place is way overpriced. Lic is a developing are with no stores. The most advertised thing about the area is it's proximity to Manhattan. And that's good because you are going to have to go there every time you need to go to the store. Don't waist your time. And the powerhouse is going to have building built right in front of it. The whole place will be one big construction zone for the nest 5 years.

I think that LIC is a great area.
Powerhouse, I agree with DCO on though - it has been probelm filed from the get-go and it's not secret that the waterfront on the other side of the street has plans to be developed with more high-rises.

plenty of nice buildings in the area though. I don't know what your budget is but the Badge Building has very reasonable prices and is a good building - ready to move-in and only 3 units left.

lic is close in proximity to manhattan as dco pointed out, however does anyone have any thoughts on why lics sales prices are similar to manhattan?

DCO - There is an Amish Market going into LIC this May and it will be a very nice sized market as well. There is also a Duane Reade going in this year. I think that LIC has taken a very long time to develop, but the development is well underway for the neighborhood.

As for the Powerhouse, the building should be very nice once finished and it is priced reasonable for the neighorhood and market at around $600 - $700/sq ft range for most of the units. I have looked at the 5SL by Toll Bros in LIC and must honestly say that the quality of the appliances and fixtures and cabinets are much better at the Powerhouse. They really are offering higher quality in their units and the price is very similar.

jmcbyr8k - I don't know why you think that LIC is priced similar to Manhattan since most of the condos are between $600/sq ft to $700 sq ft, when Manhattan goes for $1300/sq ft.

Yes, there are many buildings being developed in LIC and perhaps will be more, but that is also a sign of growth for the neighborhood. For living in a construction zone, the construction takes place during the day and stops in the evening, so the noise level would be tolerable. Also, I think LIC would still be more quiet compared to Manhattan given the police and ambulance sirens and garbage trucks that run at every odd hour of the day.

lobo- any idea why the 990 sq ft unit listed on streeteasy (IN CONTRACT according to broker) was priced so much lower ($595k)compared to the remaining 3 units?

NYCnewbie - I believe that is a 1st floor apartment.

It's a lower floor, but also, new develoments release their units in phases. buying early always has its risks but the units that are released later are tend to be released at higher prices. (aside from market downturns -- which we are experiencing)

That is how developers determine the prices for the building.

The rule of thumb used to be $10,000 per floor and they would start by releasing the lower floors first. That's not always how it works but prices increase significantly as later rounds are released.

I have actually had an argument with some about this exact issue (on this board) - when you see price "cuts" on streeteay, it doesn't really mean that the units in that building are being "cut" and that people in conract will be mad, becasue prices of later released units are releaseing at much higher prices than the people who went to contract early. So, as you pointed out, even if the 3 remaining units are cut by $100,000 each, they will still be well above the units in contract.

JimmyT - I am glad to see that someone sees things as they are.
I keep discussing the same thing all over this board. Prices in Manhattan and LIC are not the same.

They take the places at the very top of the LIC market and compare it the average (or slightly below average) in manhattan.

lobo- I disagree with your assessment that the prices between LIC and Manhattan is not fair. I do think it is fair. People are always saying that you can't find a condo in Manhattan for the same price as LIC. That's total BS. I do agree that Manhattan has very, very high prices. However all you have to do is look on this site and you will find hundreds if not thousand at similar price. lobo- I think that yourself and many others have forgotten how high the LIC prices got. Sometimes I think people still believe that you can get a unit in LIC for $400 sq foot. It has everything to do with supply. Higher supply in Manhattan keeps thousands of units with in reach of prices compared to LIC. Another thing that's starting to amaze me is that people are still debating if the NYC housing Market is starting to decrease.

IF ANYONE IS THINKING OF BUYING, DON'T. THE MARKET WILL COME DOWN 20-30 ALL OVER NYC. THIS DOWNTURN TAKES TIME. YOU NEED AT LEAST 1 YEAR FOR ALL THE WALSTREET CUTS TO EVEN HAVE A LASTING IMPACT. CREDIT TIGHTENING WILL ELIMINATE THOUSANDS OF BUYERS. MOST PEOPLE ON WALLSTREET ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE PINKSLIPS THAT ARE MOST DEFINITLY COMING. BUY NOW AND YOU WILL BE BUYING AT THE HEIGHT OF THE MARKET AND YOU BETTER MAKE DAMN SURE YOUR JOB IS SECURE. FOR EVERY JOB LOST ON WALLSTREET it RESULTS IN 3-5 OTHERS.

DCO - I never said that you can't find something for the same price - but to say that prices are the same is just not true - not on the top end, not on the low end, not the median and not the average.

It's not to say that you can't find a bedroom in Manhattan that is the same price in LIC - but the two areas are not similar in price. And I am not talking about 125th street (although, in fairness,that is Mnahattan)

I also did not disagree that we are not in a great market - I've said it before, I don't agree with 20 -30% but I agree that the market is NOT good.

I have not forgotten how high LIC prices are, but they are not as high as Mnahattan.

also, no one here said that LIC is $400psf - but it is still a lot less than $1,000psf (with the exception of 1 building which hasn't actually gotten those prices yet). And, don't forget, manhattan's average is $1,300psf - LIC floats in the mid 6's for the new condos.

You can argue that it's overpriced, and that's an opinion, but to argue that it's the same an manhattan is jus not accurate.

belgaw, if you compare all costs, you will better understand the correlation.

jmcbyr8 - are you suggesting that if you take all costs that Mnahattan is comprable in price to LIC. show me what numbers you are talking about and then we can talk.

first of all, comparing all of manhattan is not fair - it is a much larger area (well...then the Hunter's point area of LIC which is what I think that we are really talking about).

So, let compare that to Murray Hill or The Upper East Side (not far east and above 90th, becaause then you begin to argue if the area is even more desireable anymore).

Now, looking just at that - you can find a 1 bedroom in a walk-up for $1,000psf in Murray hill. You can have a huge condo with doorman overlooking manhattan for that amount in LIC.

and that is if you actually search - otherwise, prices (on average, median, high, low) not matter how you look at it are higher in manhattan.

Let's stop arguing price. If in your opinion you don't like the area, that's fine. But you can't say that the prices are the same. And even if you could, comparing all of Manhattan to LIC is not a good comparison. I don't want to live on 125 street - I would pay more to live in LIC than in Harlem - that's an opinion -- LIC is less PSF than manhattan, that's a fact.

jmcbyr8 and dco - I don't understand why you both keep on insisting that the prices are the same in Manhattan and LIC. You are not comparing the same apt in a desirable location then. Also, are you even comparing condo to condo or perhaps co-op in Manhattan vs. condo in LIC...you should really be more clear in your assessment. And when I compare all costs for the same desirable location and building, yes, LIC is DEFINITELY CHEAPER than Manhattan. Instead of just saying that the prices are the same, give me an example of 2 buildings with the same prices.
I can tell you that a new development in Manhattan (whether upper east, west or downtown will start around $1250-$1300/sq ft and up for a 1 bed. Now a similar unit in LIC is in the mid $600-$700/sq ft range.
And if anyone wants to talk about the $1000/sq ft in LIC, which I assume is the Rockrose building, they haven't even started sales yet, so why even bother mentioning it until they open sales and see what they really list for? A good development in LIC (QueensWest area) is averaging $600-$700sq ft vs a Manhattan condo of $1300/sq ft.
If either of you can find a condo in Manhattan for the same price as LIC, please let me know...because I'm sure that I, along with many others will jump at the opportunity to buy it!

Does anyone know if the PH has started closing? They had claimed first wave of closings in June.

gt9971a- I will refrain from comment for fear of reprisal from the "crew" . I would advise you to ask LICComment for some insight. I'm known in some circles as being to negative on LIC. Good Luck.

LOL...dco...you make me laugh...let's see how long you can curb your commenting about the doomsday of LIC and all NYC real estate.

belugaw- I'm sorry I don't know what you're talking about.

"Don't waist your time."

classic dco. classic.

JM- Thank You.......

given the pace of sales and construction.. im thinking late fall or early '09 for closings to take place.

JuiceMan, you didn't know? The old adage is time = money, but now it's also true that time can be converted into body fat.

gt9971a-
PowerHouse Condominium
Up to PowerHouse
The Powerhouse building is build on the old Penn Station powerhouse and the Schwarts Chemical factory in Long Island City, New York.

PowerHouse Rendering

Building B/C51st Sreet & 2nd Ave
400 luxury condos
Designed by Karl Fischer
CGS Developers of Brooklyn
Apts 1,100 ft or so going for $550 -> $700K

Under Construction 2005 to late 2007- This project is a joke. Started in 2005 and still not close to being done. And that was suppose to be for 400 units. The current plans for the building are for just 177 and they still can't get it done. Most of the sale occured in 2007 with still less then 50% of the units sold. The garage is still 1-2 years from completion. There was a rumor that the builders ran in to financial trouble. Not moving enough units in a timely manner is the fastest way to get cut off by the bank. Sorry guys I gave everyone a chance and the guy was asking for info. Goog luck.

dco - so much for your word of refraining from comment. You couldn't help but open your mouth to prove how foolish you are. Do you have anything to add other than misinformation and dumb rumors?

gt, an older thread on this site and a thread on queenswest.com have a lot of information on the Powerhouse. You should probably look at those for more information. My opinion on Powerhouse is that it may be great for you depending on your tastes. It has a cool, Andres Escobar styling and high quality finishes. I personally thought the mid-range units were priced a bit high given the layouts and the fact that you are not really getting any Manhattan views from most units in this building. The high end units with big terraces or big circular living rooms may be worth the price. The building has taken some extra time to complete because the developer has retained the exterior walls of the powerplant which extended the time to build. If you really like the styling and amenities and the layouts work for you, it may be worth it. There are lots of great new buildings going up in the area so you should check a few and compare to see what is right for you.

gt-Everything that LICComment stated above is 100% correct. Everything he says is fact and if you agree with him you will also be 100% correct. If you want the truth I would suggest you do the research yourself. When your done, post and let us know how it went.

gt9971a: "Does anyone know if the PH has started closing? They had claimed first wave of closings in June"

I was at the Citylights (which is just north of the PH) Bldg last Tues night and unless everyone was fast asleep at 9pm and had turned off their lights, I think no one has moved in yet, so not sure about closings there. I was also told by friends who live in the Citylights, that the PH is far from being complete. Same story about 5SL - bldg was pitch dark with the exception of lights in one unit.

Perhaps too many early sleepers in LIC mate. Though, there was some activity on Vernon Blvd - small number of restaurants which seemed to draw a sizeable crowd. This place is developing albeit slowly.

cheers,

Ok...I timed it...dco was able to curb his trap for about 4 hours. Let's challenge him to break a new record! Please quit over dramatizing everything...you leave out so many vital information when you post your comments that you end up painting a false picture.
Anyways, back to the facts. The Powerhouse was orignially supposed to close starting July of 2008 (as written in their offering plan), however, they have now pushed this back to October, but who knows for sure until you really see lights in there. The building is closed up and the walls for each unit are up, which would lead me to believe also that the electric wiring and plumbing are also in. Let's see how they progress.

dco, you need to work harder if you want to reach the same level of annoyance as stevejhx. According to my calculations, you need to post at 10x the rate you are posting now.

jsmith9005- Just busting chops. LOL. I truly believe that the market S$%ks, however mostly I like to get people going. Everyone seems to be so serious. I guess if you have a lot of money at stake things can get a little nerving. Why go out to Sea in a storm when you can watch it out the window from the local tavern.

I was in there this spring and asked if I bought (2BR/2BA) they would let me close in January 2010. They laughed and said the whole building would be sold and everything closed by then. I think their tune has changed.

Question...if powerhouse wanted to jumpstart sales, what type of reductions do you see? I have visited most of the LIC developments, and none of them seem to be willing to negotiate on price. I would serious take the plunge if they were willing to drop 10% off the asking for somewhere in the 650 to 750 sq ft. price range (obviously depending on view).

have you asked? worst they can say is no. i got them to take 6% of list, and half the transfer tax.. about 8% all in, and this was back in Jan. u can probably get more in your price range, which is closer to the topend for powerhouse.

i ended up not buying, btw.

JT- I posted this on another topic I think it may prove to be helpful in understanding why new developments are very reluctant in lowering prices and in some cases can't until all pending contracts close. I hope this helps.

Inventory is building daily. The true inventory is about 4X the amount listed. Most of those developments are less then 50% sold with the exception of 5sl, which sold most units over the last 2 years. In fact they still have units they can't unload.

Most developments are artificially withholding inventory, to make it appear lower. These developers are going, to take a beating, by keeping prices at these levels. What's unique is that LIC is mostly new developments. This causes a problem. As prices fall in Manhattan (mostly existing units) it decreases the spread between Manhattan and LIC. The main reason for moving to a transitional area is that you get more for the money, however as prices drop in Manhattan it looks like less of a good deal. So LIC's new developments will need to adjust and adjust fast or they will appear to look desperate in the coming months (waiting will cause larger price drop). The problem is that they just can't reduce the prices 10,15 or 20% to reflect the market, mainly because contracts pending would run the risk of collapse. Either buyer will pullout or the bank appraisals wouldn't support the mortgage request. It's a tough spot. It's clear that I would wait for dramatic reductions in LIC. Also this applies to all of NYC when it comes to new developments. They all suffer from the same problem when it comes to lowering prices.

cb, did you look at another building or did you decide not to buy at all?

dco, when are you going to stop telling your lies? Is 10-63 under 50% sold? 10-50 Jackson? Hunters Point condos? Badge? Caza Viscaya? Arris? All are over 50% sold. I'm now sure about Foundry but that is right at the 50% level too.

LICComment- Almost all of those units were sold in or entered contract in 2007. Hunters Point Condos doesn't even list units sold. I guess you are going off what their sales office is saying. The foundry is still below the 50% mark as well. Also 2007 account for the vast majority of contracts. The Powerhouse is less then 50%. EC3, La haus, haven't even begun to sales and the Star just started. All of which have not hit the inventory numbers. Neither has Hunter Points Condos, 60% of the Foundry, 60% of the Powerhouse. The inventory is piling up and some of the new condos like Arris and 5SL have re-sales listed. It's you that is fooling yourself about LIC being worth $800 sq ft. LIC at $500 sq ft. and not a penny more.

dco, do you even realize how silly you sound with all your babbling? L Haus and Star? They have just barely opened their sales offices. How do you know Foundry isn't at 50%? Streeteasy doesn't have all up-to-date information. Like I've said before, if you think luxury condos near waterfront property with skyline views, with a 5 minute subway ride to midtown, at 60% of comparable Manhattan prices is a bad deal, then you have a lot to learn.

LICComment- I was referring to EC3 and Star in regards to them not yet counted in the inventory numbers. They are fairly large buildings and will add 300+ units. Of course like I said before the developers artificially with hold inventory. So it may just show up as 15 units, if that at a time. However, in reality the numbers are much higher. And that goes for all new developments in LIC and throughout the city.

60% comparable, now who's exaggerating. Everyday as prices drop in Manhattan so goes the spread.

In contract does not equal sold. Did it close? No? It hasn't sold yet. In contract is just that. Of course I would expect no less from people trying to distort facts from reality. It is just like the brokers who tell the gullible "well this is the last unit in that line, so you better snatch it up quick". Of course they don't tell you about the units they haven't released yet, and why would they? Honesty? HA!

LICC- both. i think p/h is a good building, but it got caught up in the economic downdraft, and a crabby sales team certainly doesnt help.. the economy aside, i was ambivalent about buying in jan due to uncertainty about where our jobs would take us 3-5yrs down the line.. in hindsight, it was absolutely the right decision. i think p/h is probably a good place to buy if you have a 5+ yr horizon. though theres so much new devs coming online in LIC that you can probably wait for prices to come down a bit more.

cb81- Not that you need anybodies approval, however I think you made a very wise decision. Keep your eye on the area. Prices will fall drastically in the next 12-18 months. When it's to your comfort level re-asses your position. And you are 100% correct about the inventory being very high for the area, it's just hidden by the Marketing Machine. You actually may have just paid for your child's ( if you have any or future child's )college by saving $200,000. Good Luck and congrats on a wise decision.

dco, no one listens to you. If they did it would cost them money. In 18 months prices in LIC will be in the same range they are now or higher. You can't seem to understand that LIC is a newly developed area. The more buildings that come in, the more amenities and retail will come in, and the area will become even more desirable.

TheFed- "In contract does not equal sold. Did it close? No? It hasn't sold yet. In contract is just that" Thank YOU. I have been trying to tell people this for sometime. It's just another way of keeping inventory numbers artificially low. Take the Powerhouse it shows 54 listing in contract and LICComments interprets this as sold units. It couldn't be any further from the truth, especially well over 90% were entered in to contract before the tightening credit crisis.

The truth is that some of these people will no longer qualify for a mortgage today. They will need to come up with a significantly more amount of money then they originally thought when they signed the contract. I know this is difficult for people to understand, however it's not that complicated. Many of these new development deal, throughout the city, are at risk. Standards have changed and it will catch a lot of people off guard. The 5% you thought was enough is now going to require 20-25% minimum. It's just another example of the Marketing Machine playing with numbers.

More made up nonsense from dco. So tell me dco, which new developments allowed 95% mortgage. Which ones didn't require a minimum 10% when signing the contract? Which ones aren't working closely with the mortgage providers to ensure good buyers? You have no clue, as usual.
Of course In Contract does not mean sold with new developments. You can't close on a unit in a new development until the unit is ready for moving in and has its TCO. This is another meaningless point.

oh dco - your empty and misleading comments are really tiresome...do you really think that you have to explain to people that in contract means it's not sold yet? Let me amuse you a little....
Oh...dco...I didn't realize that! I thought all apartments (co-ops, condos, condops, and new developments) meant that they were sold when the listing said "In Contract". It's not sold? Do you mean that when I sign my contract with a seller to buy, it's not mine yet? I'm surprised...I thought when I handed over my 10% and signed the contract, I can move it the next day!
Please dco - stop the insanity! THINK...how are people going to close on a new development when it's not finished? How would the bank appriase the property when the walls are missing and the toilet is missing? LOL...your comments do amuse me though....thanks for the morning giggle.

belugaw -"How would the bank appriase the property when the walls are missing and the toilet is missing? LOL...your comments do amuse me though....thanks for the morning giggle".

How do expect an appraisser to give you a mortgage for a unit that has decreased in value by 20%?

LICComment- Ok, liets assume that it was 10%. Now what. Are telling me that the norm was not 5 or 10% down in the last few years. Now your just talking nonsense.

oh dco - you speak about hypotheticals...and if I were to entertain your hypothetical thinking, then you're correct, the bank will not give a mortgage for a property that has decreased in value by more than 20%. However, has it? Will it? Maybe, but maybe not...so let's just keep the talk to facts shall we? If doomsday appear, I will gladly meet you in hell.

dco also thinks he has uncovered some major secret that new developments release units in batches. Let me fill you in dco - there is no confidential file held by the developer regarding the number of units in a building. Just look at any of the websites and most will tell you how many units will be in any particular building. Releasing units in phases is a way to efficiently sell and gauge pricing, it is not some devious technique to manipulate market information. But keep being paranoid, it suits you.

LICComment-

"it is not some devious technique to manipulate market information"

If you don't think, that developers meet and discuss strategies on the best ways to sell their products you're very naive. It's basic economics of supply and demand, by keeping inventory numbers low, it gives the impression that supply is limited. I guess OPEC's success lies in the fact that they operate independently. Guys it's a well throughout approach that requires vast amount of money to Market these new developments and transitional areas.

The NYC Real Estate Marketing Machine is very effective in keeping people in the dark and manipulating the market. They get paid millions for their work and they are very good.

I'm not claiming that I have discovered where Jimmy Hoffa is buried, when speaking of developers releasing units in stages, however most people don't realize when looking at an indicator such as inventory, that it's an artificially low number.

If a Building like The Powerhouse has 177 total units. It shows only 13 for sale and 50 sold.
What is the actual inventory number for that building? Well according to inventory numbers on the market it's only 13. The 50 listed as contract/sold are off the market. And the remaining 114 don't exist for purpose of tracking inventory data. It's actually funny, it reminds me of the way new developments calculate square footage. Can you believe they get away with counting a % of common area as square footage. The stairs, gym and other amenities space counts when calculating your units square footage. You have to love the RE Marketing Machine.

DCO - square footage on a new condo is measured half way from the outer walls of the building to the outside of the inner walls (in your unit). They do not account for the walls within your apartment. I agree that this is already "creative" measurement but they do not account for stairs or common space, unless you know somethign that i don't -- that is actually standard for NY condo measurments, not just new developments. The reason that they get away with it is becasue in a condo you own the space whereas in a coop you own a share - so you do technically own all of that square footage.

lobo- I know about the walls, however I'm pretty sure they count common areas. Perhaps their is someone more knowledgeable. Just look at some of the plans that list the size of the units. Every single one that I have ever added up, never reflects the stated figure. The answer I was given was that they count common areas.

LICComment-

"it is not some devious technique to manipulate market information"

If you don't think, that developers meet and discuss strategies on the best ways to sell their products you're very naive. It's basic economics of supply and demand, by keeping inventory numbers low, it gives the impression that supply is limited. I guess OPEC's success lies in the fact that they operate independently. Guys it's a well throughout approach that requires vast amount of money to Market these new developments and transitional areas.

The NYC Real Estate Marketing Machine is very effective in keeping people in the dark and manipulating the market. They get paid millions for their work and they are very good.

I'm not claiming that I have discovered where Jimmy Hoffa is buried, when speaking of developers releasing units in stages, however most people don't realize when looking at an indicator such as inventory, that it's an artificially low number.

If a Building like The Powerhouse has 177 total units. It shows only 13 for sale and 50 sold.
What is the actual inventory number for that building? Well according to inventory numbers on the market it's only 13. The 50 listed as contract/sold are off the market. And the remaining 114 don't exist for purpose of tracking inventory data. It's actually funny, it reminds me of the way new developments calculate square footage. Can you believe they get away with counting a % of common area as square footage. The stairs, gym and other amenities space counts when calculating your units square footage. You have to love the RE Marketing Machine.

i am going to post my opinion on what i think about the powerhouse. i am one of the 67 in contract and have been since november 2007 so i know what i am talking about when it comes to this building unlike most people who claim to know when expressing opinions on this website. i was able to tour the building several times with a prudential broker and each time i did so the progress was moving nicely, to my surprise. they have teams of contractors working to complete the building. i went in as late as october 2008 because i too was afraid and getting nervous that the construction may have come to a halt or stopped after reading all the rumors on this and other websites. i had see for myself. the boiler inspection was just passed and the lobby was looking amazing. so yes they are still moving forward.
i purchased on the 8th floor south facing and my entire apartment with the exception of the kitchen appliances has been completed. even the hallways were complete and very nicely done i must say. the finishes were as nice as your going to get anywhere in long island city. i looked at every detail that was listed in my offering to make sure they are giving me what they said and they met each detail. i even received a letter from the developers attorney that guarantees i will be getting all viking appliances since there was talk on other discussions about not receiving viking. i just visited the view condos by rockrose last week out of curiosity and was absolutely disappointed with that building entirely. no gym or garage unless you want to use the amenities from another rockrose building across the street. even so the common charges were unbelievably high considering you would have to run across the street to use the gym and park your car. all but one apartment had views that were blocked by rockrose's other building to the south. they should of called the building "the partial view". the lobby and hallways felt commercial or hotel like. lets not forget the astronomical asking prices of over $1100 per square foot. ridiculous!!!!! also i was told that if they dont sell off enough units that they will have to rent the unsold units. that would certainly lower the value of the units purchased.
this made me feel like what i purchased in the powerhouse a steal.
the powerhouse according to streeteasy.com has 67 units in contract. that qualifies it to begin closing units as soon as the certificate of occupancy is awarded. as most of you dont know if a building is totally complete but less than 15% of the units are in contract by law no closings could take place until that 15% is reached. the view only has 15 total units in contract and they need 28 to close. so if the building is complete in january it wont matter until they have 28 units in contract. the powerhouse has 40% in contract.
hope this helps to squash all the rumors and opinions from people who really are misinformed or just dont know facts. if anyone has more questions please feel free to post and i will answer them to the best of my knowledge,

67 in contract out of 177 this far along?

Ouch.

considering the recent market decline 67 is a lot better than 15 like the View. At least the powerhouse could close those 67 when the C of O is awarded. Another point is that if you were a "SERIOUS" buyer than now is the time to negotiate. I am sure that they will offer incentives to buy. Bottom line, this in my mind is the #1 building in LIC. It's got character, perfect location, and high quality appointments. in 10 years from now when I look back and my apartment value doubled I will be laughing all the way to the bank.

I'm not sure that "that other building is MORE screwed" improves the scenario. Especially if they start cutting prices, it could be a fight to the bottom.

> in 10 years from now when I look back and my apartment value doubled I will be laughing all
> the way to the bank.

Ah, got it... you're one of those...

I kid you not, someone gave me exactly the same line about the Beacon JC, except he said triple. He said that about a year ago.

I'm collecting all of these...

"One of those" being an optimist?? It's a fact of history that markets rebound and home values especially in and around NYC close to double every 10 years. If this person told you the Beacon will triple I guess he was a salesman telling you anything hoping you would fall for that bull. But I am sure that if you look at Condo values ten years ago they doubled. You just need to have intelligence on where to invest. I have made smart intelligent investments in real estate in the past and they ALL paid off for me. As a matter of fact 3 of them were LIC and they increased more than 15 times in 11 years. Look at Citylights in LIC if you think I am lying.
It seems as if you may be pessimistic because you are being priced out of Long Island City, thats too bad. Sorry things aren't looking up for you. Maybe you need to look somewhere less expensive.

By the way, what's with you going after me in a negative way?? All I was trying to do was set some false rumors straight about the Powerhouse. Give some TRUE insight on the building and hopefully generate more interest to help my investment. Relax with the negativity. Are you one of the 15 that purchased at the View? HaHa

When do they think people will be able to move in?

the developers attorney is telling my attorney january of 2009. we obviously are pushing because we were one of the first to buy and have been in contract for a year this november. you could imagine we are anxious. they say that they will start closing with the top floors first (11th flr.). hope that helps

> "One of those" being an optimist??

There is optimism and then there is being snide. You said you will be "laughing all the way to the bank
and then complain about me "going after you". Who exactly do you plan on laughing at?

> But I am sure that if you look at Condo values ten years ago they doubled.

Look up what happens historically after RE values double. It definitely 'aint doubling again.

> they increased more than 15 times in 11 years.

Again, if you are looking at what happened in the bubble - that has since popped - as logic for what is going to happen, then you don't quite get what a bubble is.

> I have made smart intelligent investments in real estate in the past and they ALL paid off for me.

In the tech bubble, lots of folks explained how they were "smart" investors, too. Its easy to convince yourself that you are smart in a bubble. Guess where more of those "smart" folk are now?

> It seems as if you may be pessimistic because you are being priced out of Long Island City, thats
> too bad

And you're calling me the negative one?

Yes, I guess me and all the other folks living here in Manhattan do it just because we're "priced out" of LIC. Is that what your broker told you?

> Relax with the negativity

Hey pot, stop calling the kettle black. You started going negative, and you have continued to do so. Then you try calling others out for it?

tony, I think you either drank the kool-aid or you are a bit disingenuous. If you want to talk up the Powerhouse, fine, but why do you feel the need to disparage another building? I was at the building directly south of the View the other day, and I find it hard to believe that much of any Manhattan views would be blocked by that south building.

I think all the new condo buildings in LIC have their pluses and minuses, including Powerhouse. A lot depends on what you like and your style. I considered buying at Powerhouse but didn't care for the fact that most units had no Manhattan views, and those that did are likely to lose them very soon. Very few units at Powerhouse have balconies or terraces, and I found the layouts on many of the units to be limited for the prices they were asking. For the same price as a good sized two-bedroom/two-bath in 5SL, Hunters Point, Foundry, 10-50, 10-63, etc., you would get a one-bedroom with a home office, less closet space, only one bathroom, etc. I do agree that if you were looking in the $1.1 million and up range, the Powerhouse units with the circular living rooms are appealing. But for that price, their is something to be said for being right on the water at the View. On the plus side, I liked the Escobar-styling of the apartments and the common areas, the location is good, and the building history is pretty cool. I also think that the talk of having better finishes than other LIC units is a misnomer. All the top new condos in LIC have comparable quality finishes. Some may be a little better than others with some things, but with a few exceptions they are all pretty good.

>It's a fact of history that markets rebound and home values
>especially in and around NYC close to double every 10 years.

Is there not implied that rebounds are associated with variations?

Are variations and long term trends not inherently contradictory?

In the long term, but not so long that we're all dead, home values are aligned with incomes. Do you think one increases exponentially while the other increases linearly? That's a bit absurd, no? Do you really expect your LIC studio to be worth 8 million in 50 years?

Try doing the math with an assumed average per year rate of inflation of five per cent. You'll come up with a figure 32 per cent lower!

And you bought at the top!

Ouch...

Agreed. I think there are better buildings long term in LIC.

I get that powerhouse has some historical elements, but I don't think you are talking about a neighborhood that will be placing a premium on those elements. As LIC inferred, views/location/layouts are probably going to have a lot more impact.

Anyway, Im not getting into a financial verbal argument with all the finance experts on "Streeteasy", that's ridiculous. But it is factual that if you buy real estate and intend on staying in it for the long term you will make money.
My ONLY intention on this website is to give people who may actually be interested in buying in the Powerhouse the FACTS about the building. I see that every post regarding the building are from people who really have no idea about the facts. It's all speculation and rumor. I bought into the building, I have first hand knowledge about what is going on with the building. I visit the building often to track the progress and I will both positively and negatively criticize the building if necessary. So please if anyone has any questions regarding units, views, amenities, cost, finishes, etc. I am the one to ask. Thank you

tonymag5 I respect your your dilligence. Hope your investment turns out well.

Do they tell you when the amenities would be finished? I know alot of times people move in way before the gym, etc is finished.

> Anyway, Im not getting into a financial verbal argument with all the finance experts
> on "Streeteasy", that's ridiculous.

Ironic given that you are about to fashion yourself as the expert...

> But it is factual that if you buy real estate and intend on staying in it for the long term you will
> make money.

No, it is not factual, it is the exact opposite. The long term return on RE after inflation is essentially 0, per Shiller's data.

> I see that every post regarding the building are from people who really have no idea about the facts.

Kettle black... kettle black...

The fact that it is a Karl Fisher job would lead me to avoid it entirely. Oh yeah and it's in LIC too!

To answer your question now 1225. Last time I was in the building the amenities were under construction. The Spa, which I think is a waste was taking shape. The gym and common areas were also being worked on. I do believe from having experience in construction that the units will be completed before some of the amenities. If in fact that is the case and I cannot use the gym or other amenities I am working with the lawyers about getting a reduction on my common charges until they are complete. That is not an unreasonable request.

I thought the resident's lounge in Powerhouse looked great, but I didn't like that it is right next to the gym with only a clear glass wall separating the exercise machines from the lounge.

LIC, how many units does the View have? Just curious about the sales %%s

The View has about 165 units the salesman told me and only 15 were in contract. The residents lounge at the powerhouse should turn out great but i know what you mean about it being next to the gym. That however is an artists rendering and could turn out differently. The entire building looks great, It exceeded my expectations since I bought only from a floor plan.

View 9% sold, and powerhouse 38% sold after like a year?

Ruh row.

Is this par for the course with the new construction? Or are these just slow sellers?

It's no surprise that The Powerhouse hit a wall. No condo's or Coops are moving right now. They were lucky they started selling units when they did because any later that 38% would of been a lot less. However they meet the requirements to close all 67 when they receive the C of O. The View is going to have even a harder time selling units. One, They started selling right at the beginning of this mess. Two, NO ONE is buying now and three, they are priced ridiculously high. Over $1100 per square foot. I saw an 1153 sq. ft 2 bedroom 2 bath unit on the 17th flr in the View last week and they were asking $1,370,000. with an $1112 common charge. Remember there is no amenities in the building.
My take on the slow sales at the Powerhouse also is that all of the NORTH facing units are going to be Courtyard view units. They are talking about putting up another building directly South of the Powerhouse. Those units are priced considerably lower but will have no view at all. I am hoping that the sluggish market will force the developer NOT to build another building on that land. That will maintain what view those units do have and hopefully make them more desirable. If you know anything about the building a good chunk of the 67 units in contract are all facing West, South and East. I researched that fact. Just so you could compare price, I bought an 1140 sq. ft. 2 bedroom 2 bath South facing unit on the 8th floor and have a 550 sq. ft. private terrace. I paid 1.1 million and my CC + Tax is $1077 per month. Thats $975 per sq ft. including the huge and rare terrace. I am sure they are more willing to negotiate now than they were when I bought.

Sorry I said in my previous post that They are talking about putting up another building directly SOUTH of the powerhouse. I meant NORTH.

There are a lot of nice buildings in LIC. In fact, I have looked at most of them. At this point, they are all overpriced and no one in their right mind should buy for the next six monthes. I am sorry for those people who bought already and do not plan on staying for the next ten to fifteen years to see the fruits of their early meandering into the fringe of the bubble. Now, it will take one more cycle of the bubble expanding before this area will be considered inside rather than on the fringe. During the time period, prices will come down to 300-400 psf at best. The View is insanely overpriced and I am curious when they will drop or convert all to rentals. I know, their backers have tons of cash so can sit on the property, but for ten years?

Prices will NEVER come down to $300-$400 per square foot....I hope. Not this close to Manhattan. Maybe $650-$700. I do agree with you on ALL BEING OVERPRICED! I also agree with you that no one should buy now unless they feel that there is a deal to be had. I bought a year ago and absolutely knew that I overpaid. However I also know that LIC is where I will stay for at least the next 10 years, I have the money and I have a unique unit with a very large private outdoor terrace.
The View told me that if they have to rent the units not sold they will lease the units on a 1 year basis. After the year try and sell it again. If it doesn't sell rent it again for a year. What that does to the units bought is devalue them substantially.

Tony and LIC peeps, I'm curious about what kind of discounts one could get now on units in LIC these days. I know this sounds like a facetious, but it's not. I'm just curious. Obviously you all are in it for the long term, which is key, but right now, if someone were interested in purchasing there (for the long term), how much less do you think the would have to pay?

Comparable Manhattan apartments would have to fall to $500 psf for these LIC prices to fall to $300. Not likely.

LICComment I agree 100% with you on that. No way prices drop that far.
Wishhouse, you have a good chance now to negotiate not only the sale price of an apartment but also closing costs if buying a new development. I couldn't give you an exact number on how much. I guess it all depends on how inflated the price is, and they are inflated also how desperate the person is to sell. If I had to do it all over again I would begin my negotiation at about $700-750 per sq. ft.

I love the area, but tony maga you have a biased opinion and a vested interest in maintaining higher prices. Wishhouse, first of all prices are ALREADY at 700-750 psf. You would be silly to negotiate at the asking price. I stand by my prediction that it will drop as far as 300-400 psf. We have not see the bottom in NYC by a far stretch. By the way 300-400 psf is still not cheap. I think that average in the U.S. now is like 100-125 psf. Can anyone verify that?

It's not a biased opinion it's a realistic opinion. I wish the prices went down to $300-$400 per sq. ft. than I could buy more units as investments. Wishhouse, go to a new development and tell them you will pay only $350 per sq. ft. and watch them laugh at you. I know developers, and it costs them $200-$250 per sq. ft. to build an entire building with low to medium quality finishes. That's a FACT. Do you actually think they will sell units for only $100 per sq. ft. more than it cost to build it? They would rather rent the units or sit on them until the market rebounds a little. Trust me on this, like I said I am good friends with more than one developer in LIC.

yes, 300 - 400 is unrealistic. tonymag5, you are right and $250psf is actually only the starting price to build in NYC. LICyuppie, you are right, in comparison to the rest of the US, 300 - 400 may be high but you can't compare it that way, NY has always been much higher - NY has the money and the demand. The average price in manhattan in now over $1,100. LIC is still a bargain at $700psf compared to midtwon manhattan (that's not even prime manhattan). I'll be the first to agree that in manhattan prices fall to an average of $500psf that LIC will fall to $300 - $400 but I just don't see that happening.

If you look at the price cuts in LIC ... as soon as they hit under the $700psf mark they sell relatively quickly ... look at the badge building for example. They had 3 units on the market at almost $800psf ... they kept cuttinge price and 2 weeks after cutting to the below 700 mark all of the remaining units sold ... the building is now sold out.

I firmly beleive that just under 700 psf for new construction is moving and just over 700 is still attainable for developers (but not as easy). People who bought at $800psf (unless you ahve a great view and outdoor space) ... you may need to wait a while to break even.

> Comparable Manhattan apartments would have to fall to $500 psf for these LIC prices to fall to $300.

I don't know if I agree with that.... assuming they'll hold at 70% of Manhattan might be wishful thinking. "Secondary" areas usually do worse than the primary areas in slumps. Plus, a LOT more inventory...

> Not this close to Manhattan. Maybe $650-$700. I do agree with you on ALL BEING OVERPRICED!

When you can already be *in* manhattan new construction for $800 psf (a whole lot of FiDi), I think this is just wishful thinking. I have to figure you'll see Manhattan hit those levels in spots like FiDi...

$300-400? Hmm, don't know. But I have to figure you'll definitely be seeing some sub $500 psf in the next 6 months...

> I know developers, and it costs them $200-$250 per sq. ft. to build an entire building with low to
> medium quality finishes. That's a FACT. Do you actually think they will sell units for only $100 per
> sq. ft. more than it cost to build it?

Answer us YES, YES, and MAYBE WORSE. I get that their costs might be a fact, but assuming that they will profit on all builds, NOT a fact. In slumps, developers take losses. Happens all the time.

In the late 80s slump my folks bought a brand new house for less than the land cost OR the building cost separately. As in they paid less than 50% of the developer's total costs.

Thats why they call them crashes.

nyc10022, why do you keep saying the same wrong things over and over again? You found one apartment in FiDi at $812psf, in a building that averaged almost $1300 psf for its apartments, but you keep making stupid statements that FiDi new construction is $800 psf. Also, LIC's inventory is all new. It went from basically zero inventory to a level of inventory that is creating a new neighborhood. You can't compare that to inventory being added to an already existing residential area.
Also, 300 is 60% of 500, not 70%. Just saying.

tonymag5...have you joined the message board for current conract holders yet? we have about 28 confirmed people in contract. if anyone else reading this is a contract holder, please join:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/powerhouselic/

> Also, 300 is 60% of 500, not 70%. Just saying

70% was your original tracking number. Have you amended that to 60%?

> but you keep making stupid statements that FiDi new construction is $800 psf

You can buy for that level down there... that has been shown. Call it "stupid" all you want...

> It went from basically zero inventory to a level of inventory that is creating a new neighborhood.
> You can't compare that to inventory being added to an already existing residential area.

I'm not. If anything, FiDi is later in the process than LIC of becoming a residential area. Citylights has been around for, what, 9 years? FiDi center as a residential neighborhood, thats a new thing...

800 psf is at the very lowest end of Manhattan. Also, let's realize that there are secondary areas in Manhattan too. I would consider FiDi one of those areas. Frankly, my personal preference would be to live in LIC over FiDi. Let's be realistic, prime manhattan can go for up to $5,000 and $6,000psf. A new construction in turtle bay is well above the $1,500psf.

Second, $800psf is the top end of LIC, I would say that most places are in the low 700's high 600's - there is a lot of inventory and it is going to be a tough time for housing across the city but I stick to my statement that LIC and manhattan will move together. I just don't see manhattan going down to an average of 500psf ... I don't even see it coming down to 700psf ... therefore, i don't feel that you will see LIC in the 300 - 400 range. I would be shocked if it made it to 550psf. I beleive that there is still a relatively strong market for things priced around 650 in LIC.

One can debate for as long as the want how much the end price will be (I've suggested and stick with 300-400) in LIC. Regardless at this point, I think it would be inaccurate to call it a strong market in LIC. The inventory is actually growing while the buyers are leaving. Have they sold any units at Hunter's point? That building is horribley situated and I do not think I would even pay 300psf foran apartment there. Unless, the LIRR somehow disappears and turns into a boat dock.

Lobo, one last thing. You said NYC has the money to make this place more expensive than the rest of the country. I think it would be fairer to say NYC had and may get the money back. My freinds in the industry which drives this town told me that they will not get a bonus this year. Normally, 10's to 100's of thousands. Their bonus will be if they have a job. Further, to a tea each one fears they will be fired soon. Right now, we do not have more money tham Main street.

nyc1022, your point has not been "shown". Point to one new development building in FiDi with average prices anywhere near $800 psf. That is just silly.

LICyuppie, you can stick with whatever you want, but pulling a number out of thin air with no support or rationale behind it is meaningless.
Why does the LIRR station make the Hunters Point building horrible? The trains don't run at night or on the weekends, and having the station there means those views aren't going to be blocked by anything built across the street. That building has been reported to be over 50% sold.

LIC offers waterfront property with midtown views and 5 minute subway access to midtown Manhattan, and some really good dining and retail coming in all the time. If you think that is only worth $300 psf, I don't want real estate advice from you anytime soon.

LICyuppie, I think that you misunderstood my comment. I was in no way implying that the LIC market (or any other market in this city for that matter) is "strong". What I said was that the buildings that have cut their prices to the 650 range are moving inventory. Yes, buildings that have starting prices in the high 700's to 900psf are not moving at all.

I don't think that anyone on this board is going to disagree that the market is less than optimal right now. I'm just saying that, in my opinion, you may wait forever if you are waiting for prices in the LIC waterfront area to come down to 300 - 400psf.

Lastly, yes, Wall Street has taken a hit but
a) This city is not soley supported by Wall Street, there are plenty of other industries and Fortune 500 comanies in this city (more than any other)
b) To say that we do not have any more money than main street right now is a bit silly. Per capita GDP in this country is $45,000 - that is not even a fraction of the base salary of most decent jobs in NY - the people in the market for a luxury apartment.

Waiting for the prices in LIC to come down to 300 is like saying that you will wait for the dow to come down to 3,000 before buying. If you hit it right, you'll make out big time ... impossible? no. likely? no.

"You can buy for that level down there... that has been shown. Call it "stupid" all you want..."

It's not stupid, but it is patently wrong. 99 John, which might be one of the cheapest new developments in the area, is going for over $1k psf, and most buildings are well over that (W is over $2k). It's a disingenuous statement.

> If you think that is only worth $300 psf, I don't want real estate advice from you anytime soon.

Considering that Manhattan itself was "worth" that at one point, I'm not sure what the logic is here.

Things change, and now its not for the better. We can't compare to what used to be 6 months ago or 6 years ago or 60 years ago without some perspective.

Its *all* going down... question is how much...

> It's not stupid, but it is patently wrong.

No, its not wrong, and certainly not patently, unless that has a simialr meaning as "faux". You only need one apartment for it to be "can buy". Thats what I said... I didn't say "average" or "all". BTW, its more than one... there are a couple example on the last thread.

And lets not forget... those are just asking prices. The slide is only increasing...

> 800 psf is at the very lowest end of Manhattan. Also, let's realize that there are secondary areas
> in Manhattan too. I would consider FiDi one of those areas.

I don't disagree that there are secondary areas in Manhattan, but calling 800 psf at the "very lowest end" is not realistic... things get much cheaper up town.

I agree that FiDi is lower relatively speaking than other parts of Manhattan south of 96th, but its still Manhattan in a fairly "parallel" area, with almost everything positive you could say about LIC (waterfront, new construction, new neighborhood, transportation) plus the huge factor that its not, well, in Queens. So I think an appropriate comparison, but one that, unless QUeens becomes the new Manhattan, will always be more expensive in relative terms. And when their prices at the margins start converging, to me it shows a certain inefficiency is at hand, and we're in for some MAJOR price movements.

btw, bjw, if it is more example you want, I did a fidi search on streeteasy, just started with apartments under $500k. The first 10 I found I calculated psfs, these were the 5 lowest...

$766
$580
$818
$818
$798

nyc10022, I'm pretty sure those psf are for resales, whereas we've been specifically talking new development here. Click on the new developments menu here and poke around for pricing there, and you'll see the difference. I don't know much about the LIC market, but I'm pretty sure resales there sell for significantly less on a ppsf basis. This is true in any neighborhood really, but the point is, you're not comparing apples to apples here. FiDi is still significantly more expensive than LIC.

nyc10022, your analysis is so bush league I'm not sure how to address it. From a streeteasy search, the median FiDi studio is over $1100 psf and the median for 1 bedroom apartments is over $1300. Please point out 5 apartments in FiDi comparable to apartments in LIC where the prices are similar, by psf or dollar amount. You know that your argument is stupid which is why you are trying to talk in circles now to support it.

And many people would prefer living in LIC rather than FiDi. You get more space for your money and you are much closer with much easier access to midtown in LIC. I'm not saying one is better than the other, but you will get a buyer demand in LIC that you won't get it FiDi and vice versa.

Correction - the search for 1 bedrooms or more in FiDi has a median of $1300.