RE stocks: bearish/bullish

Ottawanyc:

1. even at its current pace construction of new homes is down almost 50% from peak
2. bigger builders like Toll should do well this year. maybe next 1-3 or 1-5
3. cant say how much that imnproved outlook is already priced into their stocks
4. if market or economy tank badly few stocks are likely to survive the downdraft

How could big builders go wrong in next couple of years. Seems to be an insatiable appetite in big markets for new homes.

What about the real estate brokerages? They making a killing in this market?

So Trulia stock is up more than 10% today, based on rising market.

Any bets on where RLGY will be tomorrow (earnings coming today). Up 10% as well?

Ottawanyc:

1. I dont invest in or closely follow the stock market
2. however, many of its investors have staggerly short time horizons
3. they often jump into stocks whose earnings have just gone up
4. and push prices higher
5. without regard to even short, must less medium and long term prospects

6. Apple is a prime example
7. expectec to ship 88 million ipads this year
8. and yet its stock is down 40% from 7 momnths ago

As opposed to re humpers who just lived thru the greatest bubble known.

Carry on.

"How could big builders go wrong in next couple of years. Seems to be an insatiable appetite in big markets for new homes."

Uh, did we just go back to 2006 again?

Incredible, people never learn...

Don't confuse strong demand with lack of regulation. in 2006 we had same demand in Canada, but our banks were regulated, so no crash. Now in US there is strong regulation - so strong that the underwriting rules are preventing people from getting mortgages. I actually listened to the RLGY earning call (which you cna listen to on its home page) and they said that in US right now 1/3 of all sales are cash, which is pretty crazy. I had figured it was a NYC phenomena. In any case, this is not at all comparable to 2006 just because it is a hot market.

>Incredible, people never learn...

Not everyone is as smart as you somewhereelse.

The only good thing about re is leverage. 20x, 30x sometimes the whole nut... If one pays cash in the hopes of taking out a 1% 30 yr mortgage in a few years as the 'mkt' stabilizes..... W67 has some apple puts I'd like to sell to these people.

Plenty of ppl were buying right into the bubble popping in 2007..... Realogy says you should buy bc plenty of fools are paying all cash!!! Hmmmmm. That's some goodum advice. Ottawa.... You go double long on re builders. W67 will be at the apple store buying some new mini pads for the wife. Oddly it makes me think vagina.

Yes that is exactly what they said w67. And the advice I gave? WTF? Try to use some of your brain cells to figure out why they would mention that. And RLGY is the company for Corocoran Southeby's and other real estate companies, which I thought might be of interest to people on this board. But good for you on buying some AAPL (so did the rest of the world btw). Look forward to hearing about it on these boards for the next two years.

No worries fellow apple 2500 share buyer at $390 with jan $500 short puts with which net $250k (yes I upped my short put position yesterday)....

The last time w67 recommended a stock it went from $2.30 to 7.20 in just over a year. Now if you bought 1 share that's okay.... W67 started off with 160k shares.... That's 160,000x mo betta.

To your point.... When people stop pumping re, be it billyburg, manhattan, Miami like a stock w/ no downside w67 will stop actually posting stk that have 1/100 the risk and 200x the profit potential of nyc re. Um M'okay? Apple up $9 today.....

six seven has emitted two real time calls--sprint and aapl--he couldnt have picked the bottom of aapl better, literally begging people to buy the day of the very lo--after missing sprint i bot a lousy 100 aapl's in the low 390's--thx six seven

we hear so much abt great purchases in wmsbrg etc, "hot" markets exceptional to the aggregate data, blah blah--no specifics, ancient, invented history, often--whatever

enjoying my apple so far

and i dont think ar is worried re timing a sale--she was very clear that her's was a cash flow lockup trade which will be fine, regardless of price fluctuation-

Yikers where does w67 send a bill for 6% of $5.5k?

Gotta love 'bottoms' staunch defense of AR's Williamsburg buy. Flies in the face of other bold statements made re: WB purchases.

AAPL killing it since the rec. Impressive.

So w67 gets credit for calling the bottom in AAPL, that everybody called, and getting completely lucky by buying a stock that got bought by another company. I guess its better to be lucky than good.

W67, I just don't get the permanent gloating. But won't bemoan you too much, since it was so incessant that I looked at S and now am sitting on some August sprint calls. So thanks for that ;) (and just sold my AAPL may 3 $420 calls +120%).

M'okay. Boys and girls. W67 has fixed his apple position. 2.5k shares at $390. $450k of short puts w/ $500 strike by jan 14' and 15'.

If apple hits $500k. $250k straight up and $450k in put profits.

Wonder if there will be an apple iPhone 6? Then and Iphone 7? Maybe a tv? How about a better versions of Dropbox? Maybe an ibank with retinal scan? Apple debit card and merchant credit card processing with iTunes back end? I wonder if apple can handle $.99 soda purchases and make money? I wonder?

And to boot, $3.05/share div every quarter I can vaca with. $7.6k quarterly vaca. Truth be told w67 takes $15k week vacas... But I'm already up $130k so who the fk cares..... Hey howz the re doing?

What's funnyz iz ppl with $4mm condos saving coin by going to the poconos and clippig coupons. Hilarious.

So funny, you do understand w67 that by being short those puts you are actually short the dividend as well? Or do you not know the mechanics of calls and puts?

Canuck. W67 gloating is based on renting and not buying all these years. I'll stop gloating when nyc re gets hammered and slated with 7% mortgages.... Apple and sprint is just icing. W67 will keep slaying it till the re bullz capitulate....

Why I think that teh Apple call was kind of obvious was that it has a great dividend, but then also has this crazy growth potential. Tim cook might be a bit of a terrible communicator but what he says about the ecosystem is true. Raise your hand if you've switched from an iPhone.

Canuck. Yikes owned up to his 100 share. Whatcha got. I'm making up my Schtick as I go along... Why don't you make up a number.... Come on be Canadian, or are you French Canadian Hockey rule guy. Switch sides with 30 seconds to go.

Btw wo nada teeing up apple for me.... W67 would have been slow to whip it out... Blazing saddle.

>Btw wo nada teeing up apple for me.... W67 would have been slow to whip it out... Blazing saddle.

He bought at $420 / share ... don't be modest, you saved $30 per share.

some old predictions about Zillow:

stevejhx http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27592-citys-jobless-rate-rises-as-recovery-stagnates?comment_id=424382
about 21 months ago
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Member since: Feb 2008
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Hmm. Oil back up to $100 a barrel. Stock market up 7% in 3 weeks. Zillow, which loses $60 million a year and never made a penny, is valued after its IPO at 33x REVENUE, or $1 billion. ZipCar, never made a penny either, valued at $1 billion. LinkedIn - a WEBSITE - valued at $1 billion. Groupon, about to have an IPO, valued at $25 BILLION, lost $100 million in the first quarter.

Hmm. Jobless claims up. No jobs created. Unemployment over 9%. Housing prices falling. Wages and hours worked falling. China grinding to a halt, racked with inflation. Europe ground to a halt. Real interest rates grossly negative. Greece, Ireland, Portugal about to default. Governments promise to prop them up.

There is no way that Zillow is or could ever be worth $1 billion. There aren't that many banner ads in the universe, and it is in a dying market.

Leverage on the NYSE is at the third-highest level ever, right after 1929 and 2000. S&P p/e twice the historical level. Volumes are at historical lows. The run-up in prices is due entirely to leverage.

I'm sensing a disconnect. I'm sensing a massive bubble. It might continue to go up, up, and away - and I'm thinking it will for a time - and inflate, and inflate, and inflate, though finally, there is talk among some people in the know that we are creating the biggest asset bubble ever in the history of the world.

No way stocks, or commodities, or rents, or anything rise 30% in a year when unemployment is almost 10%, and growth is somewhere - maybe - around 2%.

Zillow is NOT worth $1 billion.

and

stevejhx http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/32172-long-island-city-continues-to-rise
about 8 months ago
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LinkedIn has a PE ratio of 866.35. If you want to invest in a company that has a PE ratio of 866.35, you go right ahead.

Zillow has a PE ratio of 341.91. If you want to invest in a company that has a PE ratio of 341.91, you go right ahead.

Zipcar has a PE ratio of 304.97. If you want to invest in a company that has a PE ratio of 304.97, you go right ahead.

Angie's List doesn't even have a PE ratio, because it has no E. If you want to invest in a company that has no E, you go right ahead.

If you want to invest in Groupon, Facebook, & Zynga, companies which don't actually produce anything that anybody needs, you go right ahead.

And finally, if you want to live on a toxic waste site - you go right ahead. I'll stick to Ft. Lauderdale, thanks.

>If you want to invest in Groupon,

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/groupon-beats-targets-as-sales-billings-rise-2013-05-08 ?

how many in a row?

SE, why?

C0C0, does your theory from last week no longer hold? You were very confident in this thread: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2729-manhattan-house-200-east-66th-street

SE, why?

>SE, why?

Last week you said you knew. Were you lying?

You are the liar.

>You are the liar.

So, "I know you are but what am I?" is the best you can do after 9pm?

SE, why?

sad that you've come to this

SE, why?

I think you have to look to yourself for the answer. You can't keep blaming others for what you've become.

SE, why?

So RLGY, which owns all the real estate companies has gone up quite a bit since this was posted. I have some options on it that are up about 200%. Maybe real estate agents are useful for something?

Canadian make up some numbers. I need scale to kowtow to anonymous posters that tout their financial acument on SE. See w67 says he's up $2mm on sprint and 2.5k shares of apple at $390 with 70 jan $500 short appl puts.

See how you can provide deets and if I'm wrong ill get an alias called w67ontario

Not touting. More was to point out in a very practical way that you can be bearish on both RE and the market. on RLGY it is june $50 and spy $55 call. Unfortunately my gains would only buy a vacation to the Caribbean for a few weeks, not the island.

RLGY not doing well the past 2 weeks.

On my Schwab account I see thatt they are loosing money (I have no idea how they do that in this market...).
If you want to bet on real estate, I would use etfs, it s much more diversified and safe.

So RLGY didn't do to well as compared to AAPL - the initial calls differed by 1 week.

of course, Apple went from $390 to $390 during a 2 month period when Ford was up 20%. w67 used proceeds from Ford to buy AAPL.

And then AAPL significantly underperformed Zillow, the company that bought Streeteasy, when measuring from w67's cherry picked buy date.