W67 I need your advice

W67 only tends to come on when AAPL is up a bunch.

Go buy some BA right now. I have been on the plane that is on fire and bet it is the staff who likely left a kettle on. Time to buy AAPL was two weeks ago, but it will never spike like S did.

As much as I like appl. My portfolio will be 2/3 new sprint and 1/3 appl. I'm a buyer of appl anywhere near $390 again. If sprint is my 'risk' in my portfolio, apple is my gov't bond yielding 3%, with a huge potential to double in the next 3 years. Where can I get a 3% yield with upside as interest rates are bound to go up. $40b ebitda, with potential for $1.5b in interest earnings for every 100bps increase in interest. Compare to google. Google trades at 27x PE. Apple trades at 6.5x PE (cash backed out). And by the way. The mobile payment platform will be huge and google is at a distinct disadvantage as they don't have full control of their hardware partners. When it comes to mobile payments a closed ecosystem is way way way preferred. 575mm credit cards on file, biometric (thumb print) iPhone based authentication and seamless back up to iCloud and back end accounting software. Email docs to my acct to file taxes. Almost like inventing a commercially viable mini application store where busiessss can create software for specific needs. WOW. What we take for granted 5 years ago did not exist. Funny, google took off with google maps app. Yeah their google eyeglass is a real game changer. A boon to POV pornographers!

As nada points out mkt can get stoopid. but w67 thought jan 15' $200 puts were a great short. $4 a week ago. $2.36 today. Will appl ever trade near $200 in 18 months with $150/cash?

Crazy swing for the fences? Chk out irdm. Like cell phones, the lower the price of satellite phones, crazy exponential increase in usage. Knows lots of mariners dumping SSB radios for iridium phones. Likewise they are pumping out Man over board tags with ability to pin point individuals. Won't be long before life jacket makers put prepaid iridium MOB chips into each jacket.

jim_hones10

about 3 years ago

Posts: 3256

Member since: Jan 2010

w67thstreet
about 17 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse alrighty... petrfitz... here is my financial armageddon financial situation (not wishing for it, but taking an educated guess with my on-line persona background):

One day petrfitz you will see a shadow of a homeless man in the window and do a double take and realize it's you in the mirror and you'll just be another financial version of the walking dead in those horror flicks. And here is how we get there.

DJIA and S&P goes on a false rally for the next several months with fiscal stimulus, Obama, and no bad news out, in Q3/4 09' banks start disclosing commercial/credit card bad debt.. capital ratios fall to a level where a second wave of banks are teetering on bankruptcies, Obama emergently passes TARP 2.0... GM goes under, followed soon by F and Chrysler... unemployment hits 11%, some municipalities declare bankrutcy roiling the public debt markets. Bernanke... goes back to his research paper and does everything he can to stench this with a negative interest rate policy... The chinese and middle east finally get that for their leaded toys and oil we gave them a piece of paper worth nothing. They dump dollars denominated bonds/RE and all other US assets... wrecking havoc on our currency. The RE downturn in US continues unabated and rent goes down b/c how many homes do we need? and people do the opposite of bubble... they consolidate housing (living with parents, rooming together, going back to school (dorms)), which further decreases value of RE (that's how you get "f!!!ed petrfitz." ). The US consumers feel the devaluation as a spike in gas prices and flat screen TVs, leading for an interesting time when TVs (due to contractual obligations) built in China are turned around and re-shipped to China in a "new" black market, as well as oil and other commodities (thank goodness we produce a lot of food in this country, if it was Japan.. .there would be riots and cannibalism.. they don't produce enough food to support themselves.. .hence their need to go on war rampages every 100yrs). Remember the J-Curve takes awhile and our export won't happen for several years and maybe never cause we demolished all the factories to make "HOUSING" . LMAO

Oh where was I? Yes, (Geopolitcally) all of the above wrecks havoc on Russia's economy, especially oil.. they are pissed and need someone to blame.. .Putin puts himself back in power with the "we hate America" even more now mandate (they already want us dead).. and in order to take the minds off its populace from huge unemployment and as a fiscal policy increases its military (Cold War version 2.0). They take sides with the middle east against US and Israel and secretly start shipping arms to Hamas via North Korea (as the US cannot effectively deal with a nuclear armed crazy country).

Now Americans are scared... TARP 2.0 hasn't worked, 600K new gov't jobs only represent 5% of those unemployed, bridges to nowhere only help 1/100 of the laid off housing construction workers... inner city youths get disenchanted as they do the right thing and go to college, but work at Starbucks and those working at Starbucks with GEDs are laid off. Gang violence increases and they come out with cheaper "crack" and this puts tremendous strain on our social services which are woefully lacking in funding.

Now we have "Stagflation". Bernanke doesn't have any credibility and as a student of economics.. .I believe the first order of business is to tame inflation (the German Bundesbank has it right). If Volker is still alive, he does Volker 2.0 and raises interest rate to 15% ( yep I gotz me a car loan from the 80's with a 19% interest rate right here youngins.. .it's happened bf). This is the medicine which will finally right the ship.. .but at the expense of further drop in RE...but this is like a 5 flusher people. This is when Petrftiz declares bk and walks around asking for change...

Oh BTW how's the sticks swinging today? I'm hitting my 3 iron to the "moon Alice," but then it messes up my Nike 5900 driver... WTF? Damn too cold to hit balls today... oh well... let me go find AR and play some mind games.... :)

This is just my worst case scenario given what I see... maybe petrfitz opens a Subway franchise (he's started a company... yeah!) and can look down on us I-Bankers.

w67thstreet

about 4 years ago

Posts: 8690

Member since: Dec 2008

stop ignoring this person

report abuse

RE_P, $500psf..no problem.

30yrs and Stevehjx, I should have clarified... I meant a dead cat bounce more in terms of volume spikes, I don't believe for a moment the sellers will have any pricing power (although, if it went to $1,500psf, at this moment, I don't think there's enough server capacity to hold all the new listings that would flood the mkt) :)

hotclee... point taken, but Ericho75 started it :). I will make amends by getting back to the NYC RE market with something I'll call "Building Bubble Math". Follow me to that thread, it'll be rally enlightening

when?

So is it confirmed that Jim_Hores/C0lumbiaC0unty is petrfitz?

Interesting.

cat fking advice. Slowly.

Chubby Wombat

To each their own.

It was your reference to "moon Alice" that made me think you could actually be Chubby Wombat, who is a bit of a legend in Silicon Valley.

Hate San Fran. The men are too effeminate. I don't care if you are effeminate bc you are gay. I mean the heterosexual ones that drive porsche boxersters, drink too much prune juice and spend way too much money on wardrobe.

And I'm a legend in my own mind.

Let me look up chubby wombat.

Seems like you two might get along. I'll make it easy for others on the board who might be curious: http://blog.irocke.com/moonalice-moontunes/

That link didn't link to cat sex. I'm pissed.

Cat Ballou, Cat Ball-ou-ou-ou
She's mean and evil through and through

Alan - big fan of Jane Fonda, I assume?

six seven--i shoulda believed--gtat dipped, popped to 10.50--i sold and was happy to be out--now look.

next call pls.