Clear sign that the Manhattan Real Estate Market is about to crash in 2008

CRASHING?

Wow, I don't get the idea from this article that it's CRASHING.

I read it more like we're finally getting closer to an appropriate equilibrium.

The debate has shifted.

It's not WILL real estate prices in Manhattan go down anymore.

It's now, HOW much will real estate prices in Manhattan go down.

Some say a little. Some say a lot.

Bottom line: it's going down.

What that means to you depends as we all have different personal situations in our lives.

Good point MMAfia I beleive the article shows that by the end of August Manhattan RE prices will crash or come down very hard. I'm estimating probably August 19th at 3:15 pm.

Yeah, I've seen this movie before (1988 - 1996). The mkt stalemates for a couple of years, with sales occurring at lower prices where sellers have to sell and buyers opportunistically buy, and then it takes several years of flat/slow recovery. As J Miller says in this article, it will take years, not months.

KISS I agree Manhattan was almost identical in 1988 as it is today. Manhattan was just as safe and clean back than as it is today. It really hasn't changed at all. Can't wait to the crash to occur it's just a matter of time.

I know you're being sarcastic, but it won't be a crash -- more like a slowly deflating balloon.

That's what happened then, that's what it looks and feels like now, and that's what J Miller is forecasting. There are any number of reasons for this, including loss aversion psychology, the fact people still need shelter, and that the RE mkt is not like the stk mkt. See this -- falling prices, but slowly:

http://www.observer.com/2008/good-morning-u-s-home-prices-falling-fast

KISS, have a look at this and let us know if you still see similarities between now and 1988

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1132752161iuzhS&Record=6

Juiceman your screwing up mine and KISS's argument with facts. Please I'm trying to have fun with this one could you keep your facts and figures to yourself and stay out of it.
Now getting back to crash how long will it take to see it coming or will we just wake up one morning and Manhattan prices will be chopped in half.

JM,

Nice chart, but on its face it's stale (says it's as of 2005). But, yes, as someone who both bought and sold in NYC back then, it does feel the same way to me now as it did in the late 80s, i.e., the beginning of a long, slow decline and gradual recovery. After 10 years, I didn't even break even.

are you saying that now is not the time to buy? and just wait for it to become actually lower?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3787-todays-headlines

I'm with you KSS let's hope and pray that these dam sellers will lower their prices.

houser, I know your not interested in facts and figures but could someone explain to me what this chart says from an inventory perspective?

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1208573039sjWVf&Record=3

Juiceman dam why did you have to show that chart. I'm trying to convince everyone that's there's a crash right around the corner and you have to ruin it with a chart that depicts inventory levels are still at historically low levels. Juiceamn don't you something better to do than piss on my party.
Now getting back to this crash I think if one can just ignore Juiceman and focus on oil prices, the stock market and the fact that during the past 30 days Manhattan inventory has been going up you can see the crash is a few months away.Come on sellers lower those prices.

houser, this sarcastic brain fart is wack. stop posting so much trying to keep the thread alive and just let it die already. lmao

That is the silliest chart I've ever seen - it doesn't mean anything except that in each first quarter of the last six years, median sale prices and number of listings have not been correlated.

Nor is there any reason they should be. Listings are what are on the market now; median sale prices are what things sold for months before. So you're taking a current 1st quarter figure and comparing it to the 3rd quarter of the prior year.

That is truly a stunningly stupid thing to do: if it's not comparing apples to oranges, it's comparing apples to tangerines.

Moreover, it doesn't examine what caused inventory figures and median sales prices to move as they did - it just shows a silly line and a silly bar graph.

No doubt that that "analysis" was planted by a brokerage to get people to try to believe that MS's 4th quarter report - which is going to show nearly 50% in inventories from the end of the last quarter - doesn't really mean the market isn't moving.

I think JM posted it b/c he wants people to believe that the current rise in inventory isn't going to affect sales prices. LMAO, yet again. In 2002-2007 you were in the midst of Wall Street bonuses rising based on selling worthless assets at overinflated prices, and credit looser than ever before in the history of the world.

At his peril he doesn't read the newspapers or watch television, preferring instead to keep his head buried deeply in the sand.

erratum - 2nd quarter report

Hello my friends- Nice to see the debate rages. I have no official comment on the state of the market. I have said everything I could. Actually I'm just tired trying to prove my analysis. "It is what it is" I love that saying. I see the glass as being half empty some see it a full. And I have come to the conclusion there is no changing others opinion on the matter. The great thing is that eventually we will see who was right and wrong.

I would like to officially apologize to those that I may have offended. It was never my attention to insult anybody. I hope you will forgive me if you I did. I wish everybody the best of luck in the future and hope that EVERYONE has a prosperous year. Good Luck.

I will monitor the posts but I think I need a break fora few months, my wife is beginning to wonder if I'm having an affair with this site. HAHAHA. Just kidding. See you guys in a few months and remember I'll be watching.

"Actually I'm just tired trying to prove my analysis."

What exactly do you feel you provided and how exactly did it make you tired? Is posting "THE SKY IS FALLING" considered analysis?

JM- thanks for reminding me why I need a break.

dco, it's enjoyable just to watch desperate people holding their breath saying, "It hasn't happened yet, it hasn't happened yet, see market forces don't work in Manhattan, see it's Wall Street, no it's foreigners, no it's Martians, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's the Unsinkable Molly Brown."

Those who ignore the rule that all things eventually return to their mean do so at their own peril. I just heard of another friend, a low-level paralegal at Smith Barney, 67-ish, not there long enough for a decent retirement package, just got the ax, one of many, cut, cut, cut, cut, cut. He's in a stabilized unit, won't affect the market, but not everybody is.

These cuts are deep, they affect all levels, it is the single largest industry in NYC, it accounts for 30% of all jobs (direct and indirect), and the cuts are 20%+. We haven't even heard half of what's going to happen at Citi; we know what's happening at JPM, Merrill, Goldman, Morgan Stanley.

No, it hasn't happened yet - it's happening.

What's happening a Goldman steve? What's your source?

cutting the bottom 10%. Charlie Gasparino.

"Juiceman dam why did you have to show that chart. I'm trying to convince everyone that's there's a crash right around the corner and you have to ruin it with a chart that depicts inventory levels are still at historically low levels. Juiceamn don't you something better to do than piss on my party.
Now getting back to this crash I think if one can just ignore Juiceman and focus on oil prices, the stock market and the fact that during the past 30 days Manhattan inventory has been going up you can see the crash is a few months away.Come on sellers lower those prices. "

houser didn't realize how funny this one was...

I love it when people go back and post what JuiceMan has said in the past, so now he can deny that he ever said it.

The IP chart, according to M.S.'s own statement, includes all rentals that were converted into co-ops in the boom years of the 1980's, whether those units were actually for sale or just nominally so - that is, part of a conversion but the tenant had no interest in buying and wasn't forced to.

Just one more ignorant statement by JuiceMan.

yes, thats a HUGE mistake made, obviously.

But the bigger one is... those numbers were PROJECTIONS going forward, and bulls were trumping them out like actuals well after they were showing to have been HORRIBLY WRONG!

Its like saying "see, re does better than stocks... proof is this projection I have that says RE will double in 10 years, and stocks will be cut in half".

Streeteasy posts are like tattoos.
Seems like a good idea at the time, but can be quite the eyesore later.

A lot of butterflies and roses all over this board.
Thanks for the chuckles to lead me into the weekend guys.

Where has dco been?

"After 10 years, I didn't even break even. "

KISS, thanks for reminding everyone it doesn't always go up...even after 10 years. Conservatively, figure it will take us till 2018 to get back to peak.

"Juiceman your screwing up mine and KISS's argument with facts. Please I'm trying to have fun with this one could you keep your facts and figures to yourself and stay out of it.
Now getting back to crash how long will it take to see it coming or will we just wake up one morning and Manhattan prices will be chopped in half."

Houser, what is so high minded and witty to suggest sarcastically that 25% is the extent of the downside after an unprecedented price bubble? Prices fell 50% last time, to think they are not capable of same is just ignorant.

If you make fun of the bear case too much, maybe you can scare it away. Is that the point?

And furthermore [ha], don't you understand there will never be as many people on Wall Street making as much, as consistently as they did in 2004-2008. This had a lot to do with credit, as did getting a $2mm loan on a $350k income. Forget it. Compare this to 1988 all you want and chuckle. This is way worse.