Brexit Effect on NY RE Market?

CCL, Unclear. Some short term impact but no crash.
If you believe SPX is reflecting the future damage at 2.5% down, the impact will be minimal due to Brexit. Fed will be on hold for longer than you may think which will provide support. I think we are in much lower interest rate environment for the long run now due to "new normal" at 2% growth.

Think it makes London RE less attractive so may benefit NYC

http://therealdeal.com/2016/06/24/brexit-everyone-panic-except-new-york/

EVERY article that comes up when search "Brexit effect on Manhattan Real Estate" shows a clear favorable impact for NYC. NY is now the place to park assets when it was once London.

Well, at least I'm in the middle of relocating a client from London to New York. (sigh)

My best guess, though, is probably a wash? Doug Duncan of Fannie Mae, who is one of my favorite economists, forecasts continued low interest rates, and if you're looking to buy with a mortgage, that's a good thing. On the other hand, I don't see this as an event that suddenly causes London investors who weren't already over here to come over here, in the face of a stronger dollar and new anti-money-laundering regs.

Certainly, historically, stock market turmoil isn't good for NYC Real Estate. Buyers with thinner wallets may think prices should come down, but sellers won't be quick to capitulate -- it could be bumpy from now all the way through the election.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

How did the last downturn start? A banking crisis overseas that made it's way here.

30, It was US subprime driven bust which had shown up in cdo securities form all over the world. PIGS added to the issue.

what is "PIGS"?

"Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain", or PIIGS if you add Ireland, the principal countries who had problems refinancing government debt or had to bail out banks during the last debt crisis.

We just saw a 1 day 600 point drop in the Dow. Is it a total coincidence that this happened 1 day after the vote? Possibly, but when I hear hoof beats I tend to think horses, not zebras.

Right you country slicker, you!

DOW as at 17425 on 12/31/2015, and now at 17401. Oh no!

Drop in treasury yields should at least help out the refi market for a while. Yay cheaper money!! Leaving my 30 YR fixed of 3.625% to a 7/1, locked at 2.625% but waiting for a drop to 2.375% to reset before closing. Bring it on!

10007, Which bank and LTV? Thanks.

Apparently 300_mercer doesn't play in the big leagues, that's why he trolls Streeteasy.

The DOW is up 8 points in 2 days. Oh no!
By the way, I called the peak in prime Manhattan RE in Q2 last year and am not seeing any indication that the call at that time needs revision.

What price range fieldschester? When is the trough?

Prime Manhattan AnonymousBK. I'm not predicting the trough - timing or amount, maybe when we are in it I'll see it and let ppl know. But we hit the peak a year plus ago.

Prime Manhattan, AnonymousBK. I'm not predicting the trough - timing or amount, maybe when we are in it I'll see it and let ppl know. But we hit the peak a year plus ago.

Perspectives on higher RE prices vs. lower RE prices: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/27/beware-boris-johnson-the-power-of-a-cunning-clown.html

NYC high end real estate will benefit from London's partial loss of safe haven status among the world's elite

I agree with you fully.

We'll get a bigger slice of a smaller pie.
Net, negative. & continuing to be so.

is the Brexit over?
I can't take it any more.

No one even remembers Brexit anymore haha