What area of NYC (include "it" areas) will see the biggest declines in the next year?

On FI, there is no guarantee that you could rebuild if things were wiped out. Not b/c it's a barrier island, but b/c it's a national seashore, run by the interior department, albany, suffolk, and brookhaven.

Being a complex, I only pay insurance on improvements. It runs some $800 a year.

steve, I meant that the management of the condo might be assumed by the city/state. I didn't mean that owners would lose their units. If a condo sells 10%, like say, the Edge in Brooklyn, and "EDGE 11211 LLC" goes into receivership, the unsold 90% of the units are awarded to the creditors, which I suppose is Citigroup. Hmm. Maybe the condo wouldn't become a ward of the state. Would someone buy it at auction? Would they run it as an SRO? Any ideas of how a story like this might end?

steve, I meant that the management of the condo might be assumed by the city/state. I didn't mean that owners would lose their units. If a condo sells 10%, like say, the Edge in Brooklyn, and "EDGE 11211 LLC" goes into receivership, the unsold 90% of the units are awarded to the creditors, which I suppose is Citigroup. Hmm. Maybe the condo wouldn't become a ward of the state. Would someone buy it at auction? Would they run it as an SRO? Any ideas of how a story like this might end?

I think areas like Sunnyside and Woodside would get hit the most in a bad downturn. Those areas don't have high income residents that would maintain during a market decline. Buyers in the desirable areas have more money to put down and better credit and incomes. The tightening lending standards will affect Sunnyside to a much greater extent.

Alpine, is there really no need to correct someone when they say "he took a big lose" over and over and over again? Someone who has been doing extensive proprietary "analysis"? Someone who keeps talking about the analysis they have been doing? Are you kidding me? Oh, there's a need for the grammar police.

all of manhattan!!! - even prime areas will be down more than 50% by the time this is all over.

LICComment- "dco, when all your predictions do not happen, are you going to admit on this board how silly you are?"

Yes you have my word. I expect the same from you as well.

dmag2020- Pleae do me a favor and give it a rest. I don't care.

steve, FI has certain risks Manhattan and most of the continent do not -- buildings do get leveled in bad windstorms, as I'm sure you've seen -- I'm surprised you'd feel comfortable owning there given your view of risks to ownership on Manhattan. A real hurricane would make housing uninhabitable on Manhattan, but financially the owners would be compensated. I'm not so sure about FI. There are a few small houses (one or two beds) in The Pines that one can rent. Add that FI is second homes, most uninabitable half the year, and you've got the reasons it could be a disaster and that it might not matter -- hopefully the landowners are wealthy enough to not care if a tsunami hits. So you ought to be able to see that people in SOME markets within Manhattan don't care if there's a tsunami.

LICComment, Sunnyside might be okay in a downturn, you know. We're past the point where coop conversions are in process. Those who bought into the new conversions when they were new paid 1/4 today's prices. Those who bought at the higher prices, the prices are a fraction of the LIC condos, so it just depends what the financial conditions of the recent buyers is -- prices were quite low only 5 years ago. Interest rates were very low. What you will definitely see is peope who can afford to who rented in Queens moving out.

lowery, I'm aware of the risks and have insurance. It's much safer here than along the coast anywhere south of Virginia all the way to Mexico. And probably safer than anywhere in California (earthquakes), Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Idaho (volcanoes) and Alaska (cold).

Life is risky. What are you going to do?

Steve, that's all true -- can you see, though, that other people take risks and not everyone who takes that risk is a fool flirting with disaster? The leverage in Manhattan real estate is a big question mark to me. I don't know how leveraged it is. I know I could not get my foot in the door with Manhattan coops at the lowest prices, when I thought I was quite secure financially. So it stunned me to see this market continue to explode. It was no surprise that it was all in condos, not coops. But when I received an ad for a large one-bed in the new 45 Park Avenue condo that asked only $4,000/month, it made me think that many condo-snatcher are not the 10% down, 5-year ARM variety. There is likely lots of cash in this Manhattan real estate market, along with the highly-leveraged young professional couples working 60-hour weeks for their paychecks and banking on the future being always rosey. I can imagine a doomsday unraveling of condos scenario in this city, but I would not count on it. Think of all the people who have made zillions of dollars in one financial boondoggle after another in the past decade and the legal messes, with investors trying to recoup their money......... where did all that money go? Look at Silicon Valley, California, where after the dotcom crash home prices went UP, not DOWN. Why? Very simple. Most people got singed; but SOME people ended up with all their cash.

re: climate disasters, whatever bad could happen to Long Island would hurt Manhattan as well. I'm just point out that people have bought houses on the ocean in The Pines, seen tem obliterated by weather, and then simply rebuilt them all over again. They could afford it. There are more people in Manhattan who can afford it than you ma realize.

Climate disasters cannot affect that Manhattan that much. Manhattan does not directly face the ocean since it is surrounded by other land masses: New Jersey, The Bronx: Brooklyn/Queens, and Staten island. As a result, Manhattan will be well insultated.

Manhattan down 80% by the time this is all over......feel really bad for those who recently bought Manhattan RE.....leverage sux when prices go down doesn't it?

"I think areas like Sunnyside and Woodside would get hit the most in a bad downturn. Those areas don't have high income residents that would maintain during a market decline. Buyers in the desirable areas have more money to put down and better credit and incomes. The tightening lending standards will affect Sunnyside to a much greater extent."

I think you have it backward. Sunnyside buyers didn't see incomes duoble or triple in the boom, and they didn't have 7 figure portfolios that have now tanked. Union folks and families are a WHOLE lot more likely to be in the latter 2 spots.

Its the new buyers that blew things up, and are going to get their asses kicked. Its the 2 years out of school, high income high leverage that can screw a market, and they're in LIC, not woodside. Sunnyside and Woodside have stability. LIC has nothing of the sort. Its a new "neighborhood" with WAAAAY too much housing stock.

I agree that folks in desirable neighborhoods have more money on average, but that is NOT LIC. Buyers in marginal "desirable" neighborhoods - ones that are supposed to be the next XXX, like LIC - are the ones that are going to get hit the worst. The ones that got the "reachers", not the folks who are in long careers at top law firms, etc. And there are few places that added as much % to their housing stock as LIC.

Short story, LIC is absolutely screwed.

Is Eddie Wilson trying to say something? All I'm seeing is a bunch of babble and simple-minded nonsense. Keep babbling Eddie while the sales in LIC keep coming in . . .

LICComment - I have to say, I read these threads quite a bit (god knows why), and I never hear you say anything but "there goes [fill in the blank] talking nonsense." You always complain about others when their message doesn't suit you, but you offer nothing of substance to refute them. It's pretty obvious to everyone that you're little more than a cheerleader for LIC (or shall I say 'D-O-U-C-H-E-B-A-G'), and that you'll attack anyone who says or implies anything negative about LIC. Very hard to take you seriously, and that is probably why nobody does.

Your comment about Sunnyside and Woodside is a classic case in point. How exactly are you making such a stark distinction between LIC and Sunnyside when they are in fact adjacent and Sunnyside actually has decent services and community feel, unlike LIC. It's sort of like saying "198th street is going to get hit very very hard in the downturn, but 188th street is going to appreciate strongly." Sorry, don't get it. Add to that that Sunnyside is notorious for having very little housing stock while LIC is swimming in inventory, and your statement is a complete head-scratcher. Believe me, I don't much care for/about LIC, Sunnyside, Woodside, Astoria, etc., but when I read your comment I couldn't help laugh.

Anyway, I'll look forward to your next predictable rant: "There goes [dco/EddieWilson] talking nonsense again! Please nobody listen to them - it's just babble. Please please pretty please. LIC is the greatest. I love LIC. I love it so much my name is LICComment."

re: Sunnyside - top prices for coop one-brms = $275K-$300K (approximately); LIC has no coops, but condos are $700/sq ft, I think. S'side has had a very few new condos built recently, and they're not that much lower than LIC, but a smallish one-brm on Qns Blvd was around $360K, which is far lower than LIC prices. I don't know who has been buying in LIC, but my sense is that it's a completely different price bracket and probably has more leverage than Astoria/Sside/Wside coops. The most dramatic price appreciations, though, have been in LIC, not these other towns. "City Lights" coop on the waterfront was priced in the $30,000 range (+ $1,300/mo. "maintenance" mostly mortgage pmts to developer). People who bought in City Lights are ver-r-r-ry happy. I would have said two years ago LIC was overpriced, but if the amenities continue to improve, I'm not so sure.

lowery- Take a look at the CC's closer in CL. I have seen 2 bed/ 2bath (1000 sq ft)with $2700 CC's. That 's 32,400/year. That's a lot even for Manhattan. I wouldn't even look at CL because of this factor. Lets face fact, the whole area is just way over priced.

Ha, well put faustus.

I've noticed that the more accurate the post is that LIC doesn't like, the more likely he's apt to reply with nothing else but something a 3rd grader would say....

faustus, you couldn't have been reading these threads for very long. I very often posted with actual factual data and reasoned analysis, and the usual suspects here would constantly ignore facts, make unreasonable conclusions and just keep saying their same negative spiel despite contrary opinions and facts. It just isn't worth it anymore to keep researching the same things over and over with some of these posters, especially when they make ridiculous statements or are crude and low-brow.

As for Sunnyside, I disagree with your comment that it is not distinct from LIC. This isn't like Murray Hill and Kips Bay which merge into each other, or the Lower East Side and the East Village. LIC and Sunnyside have very clear boundaries and very different buyers. The people buying the condos in LIC for the most part are not considering Sunnyside, and the people buying in Sunnyside for the most part are not spending the money to buy in LIC. By saying the LIC is swimming in inventory, you show me that you don't understand the area. LIC is a transforming area. It is going from near-zero residential and abandoned warehouses to luxury condos. The more buildings and people that move in, the more amenities will follow and the more desirable the area will become. You can't look at the inventory the same way you would an historically established residential neighborhood.

Not to mention, LIC has been doing the same thing on all the other posts as well.

There was a fairly well thought out and detailed comment made by someone else... (not saying right necessarily, but something that definitely had some points in it)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4260-jobs-lost

and all LIC could come back with was "I think this board has officially become "The Delusional Paranoid Pessimist Blog." 80sMan had some administrative back-office job 20 years ago and he thinks that makes him an inside expert on all things Wall Street."

Thats it, nothing again. Again, no facts, no logic, no brain...just a 3rd grader.

But, as they say, when you don't have the facts on your side, just bang on the table and talk really loud...

"I very often posted with actual factual data and reasoned analysis"

Uh, yeah.

I've been to Fire Island my whole life...

No way in hell would I buy on Fire Island right now...

I see opportunity in NYC and every Dip for the next few months / years will bring out more opportunity....

But, I'll continue to rent on Fire Island thank you.

I'm still waiting for LICC to link to (or copy) that "factual data" he claims to have posted, since I missed it.

Reaper, I didn't buy in Fire Island this year - I bought 3.5 years ago. I bought it as a luxury good, someplace to spend weekend (when I work) not for rental income. I can pay off the entire mortgage in cash.

It's how I choose to allocate my assets - to some enjoyment in life. You know, a weekly staycation. Cheaper than a cruise.

Isn't funny how everyone on here seems to be able to pay off their entire mortgage "in cash"..no shit. What else would you pay it off with? DCO made a similar claim. Who cares? Does this lend you additional credibility? Most adults by the time they are in their late forties could pay off their mortgage.

Eddie Wilson - I don't doubt you re maintenance at CL. The $1,300 number I only know from conversations. But remember this -- the person I know who bought a unit with $1,300 maintenance charges paid between $30,000 and $35,000 purchase price. 16 years ago that was astronomical for Queens. Now it is not high for a luxury condo in Manhattan (tho it is not a luxury condo and is not in Manhattan). But it also would not sell for $30,000 or $35,000. So that person is ver-r-r-r-ry happy that they bought. If anyone were in today's market in LIC, CL is an established coop that sold its last developer unit over 10 years ago. It has unobstructed view of Manhattan from certain apartments, AFTER other buildings having joined it on the waterfront. So even when prices dip, CL is going to be a relatively good deal. Time it just right, and LIC's current bunch of new construction may represent a similar opportunity for the right buyers who see the potential. The potential was hard to see when CL was being built. Now I can see it. But with prices at $700/sq ft....... pas encore.

> Eddie Wilson - I don't doubt you re maintenance at CL.

I think you're thinking of someone else...

Crappy overpriced suburbs have already crashed and will continue to crash even more than the city. I say Alpine NJ especially those areas served by crappy school districts will crash atleat 75%. Crown Heights will hold property value better than Alpine.

I recently saw data that it was easier to sell a used Hummer than a property in Alpine, NJ. Who would live in a hole like that with bad school districts, high taxes, and a huge gas guzzling commute into the city.

I did hear that Alpine has an excellent Olive Garden, and its Chilli's is to die for.

petrfitz, are you now petrfitz or Your Landlord?

Who claims to own multiple properties in a VERY high-class neighborhood: the lower-east side.

Let's see - Hummer, Lower-East Side? Hummer, Lower-East Side? Hummer...?

Oh, I forgot: rezoning!

From crap to shit.

Steve - you really know what you are talking about

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/nyregion/21preserve.html?_r=1&scp=4&sq=lower%20east%20side&st=cse&oref=slogin

Steve - can you also tell us from your infinite RE wisdom why the LES is being rezoned?

petrfitz, are we really still talking about the "overnight doubling of your money" on Pitt St here?

EW "I think you're thinking of someone else..."

Sorry, you're right - it was dco who pointed out
how high the 2brm maints are in CL. Anyway, the
$1,300 I was thinking of was a small 1-brm. All
those CL coops have high maintenance. I think
the developers envisioned condo, but switched to
doop and built a huge mortgage to themselves into
the maintenance costs. Even so, the purchase
prices went so much higher that the original
owners are not complaining.

bjw - can you add any value? Can you discuss what the LES rezoning will mean to property values anywhere in the entire East Village and LES that the rezoning will cover?

You would think that since almost 10% of Manhattan will be effected by this an astute RE genius like yourself would be knowledgible in its implications.

BJW is a RE genius. That is why he works in health care. BJW hang on someday you might be able to buy. I hear there are some screaming foreclosure deals in Alpine, NJ.

Steve and BJW - you guys are so right about nothing happening on the LES

http://curbed.com/archives/2008/07/14/thompson_les_lobby_revealed_opening_delayed_again.php

Love your post, petrfitz:

"The National Trust for Historic Preservation designated the Lower East Side of Manhattan as one of the 11 most endangered in places in America on Tuesday."

Couldn't agree more.

"can you also tell us from your infinite RE wisdom why the LES is being rezoned?"

Because it's a hellhole.

BTW, this is a horrible misplaced modifier: "one of the 11 most endangered in places in America on Tuesday."

Was it endangered on Monday?

yeah steve you are so right that it is a hell hole the historic trusts who are trying to preserve the area from all the developers who want to build lux hotels, restaurants and condos there dont know anything.

Your opinion is the only one that counts. If we could all only live like you. To have a condo in a complex in Fire ISland totally makes my 4000 sq ft with gardens and parking in Manhattan look like a POS.

One of the biggest differences between me & you, Sneaky (besides all the different names you post under whereas I just use one) is that I tell the truth about where I live.

"the historic trusts who are trying to preserve the area from all the developers"

That's the purpose of those trusts. When they preserve the tenements, let me know.

Operative phrase: "who want to build"

Or - "who wanted to build"

perfitz is a "real estate genius," yet he owns property in housing crash Las Vegas?

By tthe way perfitz, where is your house in Vegas? I could not see the numbers on your street because there were so many "Bank Owend" signs blocking them.

perfitz,

You do relaize that Alpine, NJ is the #1 wealthiest town in the U.S. per Forbes?The median property value is $3.4 million.

steve - correcting grammar makes you look even more like a nick picky bitch. when faced with overwhelming evidence contrary to your opinion you have to resort to grammar police.

guess what I spell incorrectly sometimes or use improper grammar when posting on web blogs, but I own 4 buildings in Manhattan with a ton of renters who pay me huge rents to live in timy boxes.

You pay a lanlord rent to live in his tiny box and you "own" a crappy condo. Who is doing better in RE and in life? Not the guy who corrects spelling. Oh yeah I am 20 years younger than you.

LES - another area popular with the younger crowd, so of course cranky steve doesn't like it.

Well, I wouldn't call all of the LES a hellhole, and many parts of it are fine and will be fine - I just think it's quite disingenuous to claim you'll be doubling your money overnight - literally - on Pitt St. Pitt St! That's quite a reach, as I've told you before. Anyway, weren't you outright convinced that healthcare costs would erode real estate profits? How are these thoughts congruous?

Petrfitz is starting to sound a lot like the dot com guys in 1999....

yeah it used to be. now all those ibankers and telecom execs who lived there jsut lost all their money. Now Alpine is close to being a suburban slum.

Sucks for you, sorry to hear that your overinflated property values are crashing. I know 4 people who live in Alpine and are now out of jobs. They cant refi their ARMS because finance is now considered risky.

Those foreclosure buses are starting tours to Alpine. I am looking at an Alpine property through HUD but dont think that $300K is a good deal for a 3500 sq ft house in Alpine.

EddieWilson sounds a lot like a guy who missed the dot com era, and the RE bubble era. He sounds like a guy who got laid off from a Wall Street job and knows he will never be able to get back into the glass tower.

"overwhelming evidence contrary to your opinion"

What is that "overwhelming evidence"? That historic trusts want to preserve the character of a neighborhood?

"but I own 4 buildings in Manhattan with a ton of renters who pay me huge rents to live in timy boxes."

Oh, have we heard this before?

"Who is doing better in RE and in life?"

¿?

"another area popular with the younger crowd"

= people who can't afford better

"so of course cranky steve doesn't like it."

Because it's a hellhole.

You guys are just too much. To you, "overwhelming evidence" = "your opinion." To you "doing better in life" = "doing what you want to do not what others want to do"

To you, "I say I own 4 buildings" = "I guess I do."

"Oh yeah I am 20 years younger than you."

And my dick is bigger than yours.

I know everything you are writing is complete BS perfitz.

QUICK: Tell me what the name of the main street in Alpine is...

And my dick is bigger than yours.

and you've made it really clear where that dick has been. indicating one of your first wrong turns in life.

"I know 4 people who live in Alpine and are now out of jobs. They cant refi their ARMS because finance is now considered risky."

Petrfitz, you are getting more bizarre and unbelievable all the time. First there was your Shakespearean actress wife, then there were your buildings, then you were kept awake at night because Celine Dion who lived next door's helicopter flew in from her Vegas show, now you know everybody in Alpine New Jersey.

Come on - GIVE US A BREAK!

You hsve 1 more minute to answer perfitz. I know you are busy Googling the answer, but don't bother because you are unlikely to find it.

alpine. it's in nj. say no more. it's where rich men park their wives and families so the mistress and the missus don't run into each other. the guys still keep their places inthe city.

Alpine - trust me I know Alpine. I made my money in technology and know a ton of the ex Telecom and AT&T former execs who all live there and have now all lost their money. Oh yeah I know the Wall Streeters who also lived there and now dont have jobs and cant afford to commute into the city to look for work anymore.

Erratum!

"First there was your Shakespearean actress wife" = "First there was your Shakespearean actress wife with a multimillion dollar trust fund."

For a person who claims to own all this real estate and his own television production company, you sure do have a lot of time to waste during the day.

"Alpine - trust me I know Alpine. I made my money in technology and know a ton of the ex Telecom and AT&T former execs who all live there and have now all lost their money."

HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP! HEEEEELP!

"Trust me...."

Steve please gives us your insight into whom makes up the demo of Alpine,NJ?

Also Steve - every minute you sound more and more like a jealous prissy bitch.

> EddieWilson sounds a lot like a guy who missed the dot com era,

nope, got smack in the middle of that one... and saw some ups, and got smacked by some downs. And ended up (my first major score was in tech). I did sell out most of my portfolio before the crash. I missed the last 6 months of run, but overall, that was a pretty good move.

> and the RE bubble era.

which one? short answer is, I didn't miss any of 'em. Was in RE before stocks, actually. Family business.

> He sounds like a guy who got laid off from a Wall Street job
> and knows he will never be able to get back into the glass tower.

Sorry, never been laid off either.

Nice try, though.

so perfitz does not know that the mains treet in Alpine is called Closter Dock Road. Your so stupid perfitz. I merely talk to you for entertainment when there is nothing better to do. I think I will ignore you now and go watch paint dry.

Petrfitz is ignored!

Alpine - the reason that no one can come up with the name of Alpine's main street is that we dont care. Alpine is a crap ass little suburb whose properties values were overinflated several times more than NYC's were.

Alpine is not a hub were people are dying to move to anymore. Its glory days are behind it and will struggle not crash precipitously.

The base of people who lived in Alpine and made the property values increase were mainly due to large AT&T, and Telecom buy outs. Now all those people lost ttheir money and cannot find replacement jobs in the area. The rest of the Alpine, NJ people were Wall Streeters who are wiped out.

If I were you I would be crapping myself about property values and your tax base cause it is gone.

Please tell us one reason why property values will not crash in Alpine, or where and what industry the future buyers in Alpine will be coming from?

biggest losers:

1- meatpacking district
2- financial district
3- lower east side
4- any new construction north of 96th

herman aroya project - http://www.promediacorp.com/herman/index.htm

Biggest losers:

1 - Financial District
2 - Battery Park
3 - Non Prime Brooklyn
4 - Washington Heights
5 - Upper West Side
6 - Upper East Side

Places that will hold or stay flat
1 - LES
2 - Inwood
3 - Brooklyn Prime

> Places that will hold or stay flat
> 3 - Brooklyn Prime

Wow, its been 30 seconds since you posted and you're already wrong. Some of the most expensive buildings in town have already resorted to lowering prices or renting out what they can't sell.

Brooklyn is going to have the worst glut of 'em all....

Lowering prices from unbelievable record highes?

You mean the brownstones that people are trying to sell for a 300% increase over 3 years and settlinn for a 250% price increase?

Seeing reductions in sales prices mean nothing unless you have understanding on what the gain is and when it was purchased.

I think that there is a movement in Brooklyn Prime Brownstones to purposely overprice offering and settle down to make the buyer feel like he has a deal but in the end the seller ends up getting more than they dreamed of.

"Places that will hold or stay flat"

Your words.
Lower is not holding nor 'staying flat'..

Sounds like you are backpedalling.

ok, I feel a need to weigh in here. say what you want about the LES - it's certainly not everyone's cup of tea - but it is definitely a vibrant, up-and-coming area. yes, it has its poorer parts and shabbier buildings (along with some nice new ones), but even these aren't as seedy as, say, the meatpacking district before it was gentrified. just walk along ludlow or rivington streets - at night, plenty of people out eating, drinking and listening to music, and during the day people hanging out in coffee shops and going to boutiques. oh, and you now have the biggest whole foods in the country there - which, last time I checked, was a store that catered to affluent areas. meanwhile, steve's neighborhood, chelsea, certainly has some nice places and buildings. but it's also home to everything bad about gentrification in nyc - all the big, boring chain stores. oh wow, should we go to bed bath & beyond, home depot, or west elm this weekend? so many choices, I just can't decide!

one other point. people move to the les (and the east village for that matter), partially based on value, but mostly because they really like the area. this is very, very different to most people moving to, say, the financial district, north of 96th street, or hell's kitchen, where you are just comprimising on location for a cheaper apartment. the face that there aren't many nice buildings there yet only makes the nice buildings/apartments even more valuable, because there are less of them in the area.

sadly, I realize in saying this I am agreeing with petrfitz, who considers people worth a measly million "chump change" and yet is somehow at the same time a champion of the working man when he talks politics.

oh, one more thing - who is this eddie wilson asshole?

Marginal areas lose value fastest.

Or has that changed in the "New Real Estate Economy" as well?

I have officially ignored perfitz!

"steve's neighborhood, chelsea"

It's my "area" because there are plenty of relatively cheap places to rent. There are advantages and disadvantages to 6th Avenue (which is a lot better than it was when I first moved to Manhattan), but I did appreciate being able to buy paper at Staples today without having to walk a thousand blocks.

There's a lot I like about the E Village, as well (ditto lots better) and I think it will weather the upcoming storm no worse than other areas. Above 96th Street has that great unknown, the Columbia expansion, which should not be underestimated. If petrfitz (whom I'm ignoring) were wise, he'd dump the LES and focus on Manhattanville, and long-term anywhere along the 2nd Avenue subway, the extension of the No. 7 line, more redev. of Hell's Kitchen.

Maybe "my people" can't get married (not actually true), but if there's one thing we have a long history of doing, it's picking the next new neighborhood. If you see gay bars popping, up, THAT is a buy signal.

Gays are actually good for property values. San Francisco has gays and their values skyrocketed to the moon.

"Gays"?

We're a bellwether.

steve, gay bars are no longer the buy signal for trendy new areas -- now it's "cuckoo coffee" -- look for cappuccino and latte being offered in places that used to have only "coffee"

Who do you think buys that coffee?

Manhattanville! Hilarious. Yeah that is where the Historic trust are trying to preserve, lux fashion hotels are being built and restaurantors are fighting for space. Steve is such a dolt.

re this slamming of LES -- the few times I've been down there in the past five years I was pleasantly surprised -- it is not a hellhole, and the gentrification that's going on is reminiscent of pre-Starbuck's Prime Manhattan -- what is more noticeable to me about "nice" Manhattan neighborhoods in the past decade is how boring they've become -- Taste Di Lite (or whatever), cheap Mexican fast food joints like Qdoba and Chipotle, etc. -- while living in Murray Hill I noticed good restaurants open in prime strips with menus I loved and decent ambience failed, while the beer and pizza shops and McPastas (Patsy's) continued to get all the business. Classic example was a good Spanish restaurant on 33rd b/w Lex & 3rd that served a great arroz con pollo. They first changed their entire menu to American fare to attract the locals, then closed due to lack of business, while across the street some cheesy joint that served red-dyed doritos in plastic mesh baskets for appetizers and did a thriving margarita and taco-salad business did a booming business.

I don't think any Manhattan neighborhood below 96th St. is going to suffer that greatly. Prices will go down, as will rents..... yawn .......... to 2005 levels. Starbuck's may introduce "express line service." If you're looking for significant price dips go above 110th Street and to Bx, Qns, BKln, SI and the further-out suburbs. Washington Heights and Inwood will continue to chug along.

Though I ignore most of what petrfitz says, I do enjoy his first-post-of-the-day (though eah is still ignored).

Sneaky, go to http://neighbors.columbia.edu/pages/manplanning/, see exactly what Columbia is doing. There will be an academic campus running from 116th Street through Presbyterian Hospital, encompassing Columbia, Barnard, TC, City College, and the Health Care campus, including 125th Street.

That is a recession-proof redevelopment with a built-in community of students, professors, researchers.

"Historic trust are trying to preserve, lux fashion hotels are being built and restaurantors are fighting for space"

Historic trusts already protect most of Morningside Heights. lux fashion hotels come and go. restaurateurs (watch your spelling) routinely go out of business.

Seems like you're thinking LES is going to be like SoHo or Tribeca. Not. Chinatown is always there, and a lot of people avoid Chinatown. Not to mention the project, the bridge, the tenements that those historic trusts are trying to preserve. There's a reason why South Street Seaport failed: nobody goes.

Steve you idiot - LES is already Soho. Pomeranc thinks so, McNally thinks so, Deniro thinks so, Karl Fishcer thinks so, Whole Foods thinks so, etc, etc, etc, just not Steve.

OMG LMAO.

You're talking about the ever-so-successful Karl Fischer building? Whole Paycheck - did you see their results recently? Maybe Starbucks likes it, too.

stevejhx, as much as it pains me to side more with petfitz on this one, I think the LES is going to be just fine. Ludlow, Orchard, and Clinton are already in great shape, as are sections of Stanton, Rivington, and Broome. I think the Bowery, Allen, and Chrystie will turn out nicely in time as well. I agree with you when it comes to the far reaches of the LES that are far from transportation and close to projects (ie: my mini-feud with petrfitz about "doubling his money overnight" on Pitt St, which faces the projects, has zero amenities nearby, and no subways). Chinatown does overlap with parts of the LES, but for the most part, that's below Delancey St, and while there will almost certainly always be a strong core of Chinese immigrants (though this might change as that country's economy improves), I think the fringes of that neighborhood are eroding - I lived on Elizabeth in Nolita up until this month, and I witnessed some of this change.

That said, I agree with your assessment of the area around Columbia, and am happy to hear they're trying to connect the Washington Heights campus more to the main campus. Having shuttled between classes there, I can tell you it feels like two different worlds sometimes.

Washington Heights is great when the bullets arent flying.

petrfitz - agreed - there are parts of WH relatively bullet-flying-proof - it will hold its own (Cabrini Blvd, etc.)

LES has its attractions, agreed, but much of it is and will remain barren for a very long time. There are some great comedy clubs, indy bookstores, stuff that reminds me of the E. Village 10 years ago.

Chrystie can be scary at night - I went to some electronics stores down there in the winter.

The problem is demand: all the people who demand all those luxury services are losing their jobs. It's not a place that tourists go to, there is no "anchor tenant." It took years and years for SoHo to become something - when I was a kid in the 70's you wouldn't dare walk down there, but it had a special attraction that LES didn't have: beautiful cast iron buildings (which make cell phone service suck). LES doesn't have that, there is limited demand for another shopping district like SoHo (which I don't even like anymore b/c it feels like an outdoor mall), transportation sucks in most parts, Chinatown only seems to get bigger.

Why my money is on Columbia is because it is an anchor tenant that will always be there. True it's a little quiet in the summer, but to me the revitalization of 125th Street - which already has infrastructure, "historic trusts" trying to preserve the character, makes up for that. Columbia, the hospital, medical campus, TC, Barnard, City College, Manhattan School of Music, all of those institutions are there permanently. Done right, it could be a new - albeit urban - Harvard Yard.

None of that exists in the LES.

Sneaky, Washington Heights is just as safe as the LES, and it has BEAUTIFUL housing stock and access to transportation.

Now steve is an expert on another neighborhood that he strolled through once in the last ten years. LES is "barren"? Tourists don't go there? What world are you living in? It has some of the most energetic nightlife activity in NYC. Who do you think is staying at THOR? Bowery Hotel?

The young people must scare steve off. You were a kid in the 70s? Come on, you were probably out of college by that point . . .

Steve - you know that investment bankers and wall street types dont live in the LES? Do you know who lives in the LES and please tell us why you think that they will be losing their jobs?

petfitz - great, uneducated comment about Washington Heights. It's a safe area and parts of it are quite nice, as stevejhx pointed out. It can be a little loud by the hospital (168/Broadway), but that's really it.

stevejhx - the LES already is a shopping district. Orchard and Ludlow have tons of stores. There are bars and restaurants/cafes everywhere in that area, as well as on Clinton. Where you can it's changing is on Broome and Grand, where established LES stores are moving due to lower rents, or new businesses are setting up.

"It has some of the most energetic nightlife activity in NYC."

I've partaken, and actually I've been there quite a bit: it's easy for me to get to via the F train. But it doesn't have an anchor tenant, and much of it remains very, very scary.

I told you - it reminds me of the E. Village 10 years ago. That one day it can be grand is undisputed, but that "one day" is not tomorrow or the next.

Hells Kitchen will happen first. Manhattanville will happen first. They have anchor tenants: Times Square and Columbia, respectively.

Washington Heights by RSD is beautiful. It will hold it's value. My biggest regret in investing is that I didn't buy more properties along the river. At the time the buildings were in poor financial shape. Now they are fine and full of families. Steve is right that the housing stock is beautiful. And we never agree on a thing. Which is why I disagree with him (partially) that the Heights will fare poorly. Maybe in the 170's or east of Amsterdam but I 150th/Broadway to about 168th will be fine.
157th/158th is a particularly beautiful area and the subway is right on Broadway.

petrfitz, i generally agree with you but I don't on Washington Heights. I think you're mistaking it with parts of Harlem or Brooklyn or the Washington Heights of about 20 years ago. The area I posted about above are full of families. Most of my properties are rented to young physicians working at Columbia Pres. or couples thinking of buying in the area who want to feel it out. The main legit complaint about it is that it lacks services.

"anchor tenant"? what is nyc, a mall? (yes, I know it is in some areas)

I have news for you: Times Square is only a draw for tourists. It actually puts a cap, not a floor, on Hells Kitchen real estate values. Who wants to have to go there to get to the subway? And before anyone tells me how great it is, I lived in Hells Kitchen when I first moved to NYC (because it was cheap of course).

But sure, I'll play along with your "anchir tenant" BS...draw a circle with a 5-10 block radius around the Whole Foods on Bowery. That part of the LES, East Village and Nolita are all great places to live now, and will be in 5 years and 10 years. The only danger actually is that chains start coming in too quickly or in too high numbers and ruin it.

Steve is very, very scared of much of the LES. You must be lying about being from NYC because you have no clue. Unless you're walking around the Baruch Houses, the LES is not scary. It's full of tourists and young people who flock to it because of the small independent botiques, restaurants and bars.

The Tenemant Museum, The New Museum, the galleries that moved from Chelsea are all great for the area for the old new york feel and history. The fact that the lack of Bed Bath and Beyond's scares the Steve's of the world away is a bonus.

"anchor tenant" is (obviously) used as a term to draw people in.

"I lived in Hells Kitchen when I first moved to NYC."

How long ago was that? Because I remember when Madison Square Garden was there (my godmother lived across the street) and I remember it in the nasty 70's. Time Square is more than just tourists - it's got tons of businesses moving in, transportation hubs, etc.

Granted, I wouldn't go beyond 9th Avenue b/c of a lack of transport, but it has plenty to do.

"That part of the LES..."

Not all of "that part," but some parts.

"You must be lying about being from NYC because you have no clue."

Need I show you my birth certificate? Astoria General Hospital....

I thought Astoria was in Queens, not New York. I must have my counties mixed up.

Sweet.

The LES/EV will be fine provided the constant stream of midwesterners/transplants continues in perpetuity. I don't know anyone who has been here more than 5 years ("natives" or transplants) that actually enjoys the hood.

> I have news for you: Times Square is only a draw for tourists.

I have news for you... you probably haven't been to NYC in a while.

Morgan Stanley, Viacom, just to name a few right ON times square...... its filled with office workers most of the day.

> I thought Astoria was in Queens, not New York.

Astoria, Queens, New York, New York

Seriously, when did this board get invaded by people from Ohio?

I know many educated children of immigrants or of poor upbringings who stayed in the LES. They're reaping the benefits of cheap rent or parents who purchased property really cheap. It's not all transplants. The transplants are the ones paying market rates, like at Blue or the Ludlow.