Sale at 15 Central Park West, #PH40B

Reason seems to fly out the window over there; it well might! I'm still not convinced, however, that the building is that fantastic.

You all know my conflict of interest/involvement re: this condo.

Having said this, I'd really - REALLY - be surprised if it gets ANYTHING like the asking price.

Some of the problems with this specific unit (aside from the issue of price) are (in no specific order) -

1.) Okay, but not great layout (choppy)
2.) No terrace/outdoor space (this is a big, big minus)
3.) No windows in any of the bathrooms (should have been thought out better)

$80 mil and no terrace??? Well, at least there is a laundry in the building. That would have been a deal-breaker for me! LOL

What is your conflcit of interest with this unit malraux? I am not aware of them.

Is it just me, or does 15 CPW kind of resemble low income housiong from the outside? Seriously, the building looks much older than it is. I prefer the all glass look, like the Time Warner Center.

The combined monthly mortgage and taxes for this unit are $412,000. I think I would rather rent the unit at $200,000 a month. With a sky high price of $80 million, there is hardly any room for decent appreciation.

alpine292:

I've been on record here in the past as having bought a 2 bed/2.5 bath unit there for investment (that is currently rented out) very early during the initial offering.

Wow, you must be sitting on a ton of money right now. How much did you pay, if you don't mind me asking?

alpine292, that is not really a fair question to ask. If malraux wants to answer that is fine. If you do some digging you can find out yourself. Malraux puts quite a bit of time into his research to find the correct building for investment. He is my hero. Would like to pick his brain.

alpine:

Ummmmm....,let's just say it was between $4MM - $5MM. I just don't want to 'out' myself, obviously. Similar units now (re)sold and in contract for $12.5MM - $16MM ( /-). As I said, I'm just rentin' it out - ne real desire at this point to flip.

But to get to the original question, I just can't see that other place garnering $80MM. It's just nutty....

Malraux,

Congrats on your purchase. I am curious though as to why wouldn't you be thinking of selling your unit? Looking at 2 brs for rent here it looks like the range is 20k-30k. (there is a 2241 sf 3 br for rent at $19,995 - down from $25,000. That barely covers the mortgage let alone fees opportunity cost on down payment, etc. So it looks like renting is cash flow neutral at best. Are you waiting for more appreciation?

Help me understand your thinking. I mean if the very large penthouse is nutty at $80mm what would you call $16mm for a lower floor 2br?

Hey jake:

In terms of the 2 bed units I think you're looking at, the lines that directly front CPW with views are currently listed for $27K - $31.5K, not $19K - $25K.

The 2 bed units that front CPW (and there aren't many) are mostly (or will be) owner occupied, I think, and they tend to be larger as well (2,000 - 2,400 s.f.) than many of the 2 bed units that tend towards 1,500-1,800 s.f. My (high floor) unit has a three year contract out at a monthly rent of between 30K and 40K. Thus, I am covered on the mortgage and maintenance/taxes, plus putting a few K back in my pocket every month.

In terms of the $80MM unit, I just find the number itself gobsmacking. I do agree with you, however, that a 2 bed/2.5 bath with a price of over $10MM to be gobsmacking as well, though a bit less so! But the bottom line is that when I initially saw what this development was going to be in the very, very early days (before an official offering plan even existed), it was a pretty immediate intuitive reaction on my part that this was going to be as much of a slam dunk as a Manhattan residential investment could be, even when the market eventually corrected as it had twenty years previously.

Congratulations on your huge profit malraux. Don't mind my personal questions abot your unit... I am just poor white trash living in a McCrap Shack in NJ.

Hi alpine292:

I didn't mean my response to your question to sound rude - I'm sorry if my writing tone came off in that manner - it was absolutely unintentional!

But why not think about hitting the cash register now? Your neighbors all seem to be cashing out with 10 active listings for units that just closed and another 6 in contract. I mean even if you are right and you can get $35,000 per month rent that math works for what you paid $4mm+. That math does not come close to working at $12mm to $16mm. And as far as renting goes going forward you will be competing with all those other landlords trying to rent out their 2 and 3 br units (12 others ion the board today). Man, prices have to be up much more than anyone could have guessed. Unless you think prices are still going up I can think of a lot better ways to invest your $8mm profit.

I agree. I would sell now. Just as easily prices went up, they can go.......... DOWN! I think this is the peak for the luxury market. From this point on, expect either 0 appreication or negative appreciation. Take your 15 CPW profit and invest it somewhere with a bigger return. Or you can always move into the condo. It's a nice building... I would kill to live there. But I could harldy afford a staff apt. there, never mind a 2 bed/ 2.5 bath unit.

I am just curious, can anyone buy a staff unit at 15 CPW, or are you required to own a larger apartment?

The staff apartments are almost certainly meant for people who currently have a larger unit in the building. After all, they don't want poor white trash over there! (wink) I think that the building looks terrific from the outside, he did a brilliant job of approximating those beautiful old apartment buildings. My gripe with the photos I've seen is that the units look smallish with views onto a wall of windows - AT RIDICULOUS PRICES !!

I also do not like the white kitchen cabinets. I prefer traditional wood stained cbainets.

ANn I think your right about the staff apartments. The last thing the residents of 15 CPW want are for people in my social class moving into their building. If I was a multi-millionaire, I would not buy at 15 CPW. I prefer Time Warner and Trump Place.

malraux
ummm are you sure you bought at 15 CPW?
I have a friend who bought 3 BR there, and another who bought a penthouse
No one has flipped for 3x cost for the smaller apartments as you are claiming
If you bought for 5mm months ago and can get 15mm now you would be selling and partying, not renting it for barely more than your cost
Sorry I dont buy your story

Link to July 22, 2008 Observer article, "The Voodoo Economics of 15 Central Park West: Why the $100 M. Listings Are All in Your Head"

http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/voodoo-economics-15-central-park-west-why-100-m-listings-are-all-your-head