BEST values found in downtown manhattan? (sales)

If I lived in Downtown, I think I would choose a place either close to WTC like 125 Greenwich or near Stone Street. 125 Greenwich seems only a bit more expensive than 1 Manhattan Sq. but with more of a Manhattan feel with lots at your doorstep. I do like the vibe in the general area of 1 Manhattan - a mix of Lower East Side, Chinatown, and East Village but it seems a little too insolated and I don't see the immediate area changing that much.

Instead of Downtown, have you would looked at Lower East Side projects like 196 Orchard?

superlun,

Manhattan square and other buildings you mentioned just are not comparable. On one hand you have ridiculously priced new development at $2k plus per sq ft which is not selling in a bad location. It could be down 30% from the current prices easily as they can not sell it at the current prices. The others are well established value coops where the downside is small.

Are you just looking in China Town and areas around it?

ximon,
Thank you for your input! I will look into your suggested projects! :)
"I do like the vibe in the general area of 1 Manhattan sq" That was shocking to read! lol I didn't think anyone liked the vibe.. hahaha.. of course, this is a matter of opinion. 10 years from now, I do believe with all the mega buildings going up, it will be pretty "weird," considering these mega structures will be up against the city housing projects.

300_mercer,
I know the projects I mentioned are not comparable against each other. I am looking for opinions on value found in Manhattan, these can be small or large.

I am impressed that you believe a new development, 20yr tax abatement, all luxury amenities, hmm.. as an example, 48th floor 2bd/2bath at 2.5mil can potentially drop 30%... I guess I don't see it. Considering prices go up based upon elevation, I have found that price to be pretty competitively priced. But yes! the neighborhood is odd to say the least.

I actually live in Chatham Green, I LOVE IT!!! But I am looking to get something bigger.. this is what prompted my question. I would love to find something in a new development with great amenities and that has great upside potential, or at least very minimal downside.. hahaa

Am I just looking in the Chinatown area? ideally yes... however, I am a value investor, if I fall in love with something in Tribeca, Fidi, LES, Soho, etc etc.. I would be more than willing to go outside my comfort zone ;) The 3 locations which were neck and neck when I was about to buy my place were: 250 Mercer, 75 Wall, and Chatham Green.

superlund, when I referred to the general area of 1 Manhattan Sq. I was referring to the neighborhoods within a short walk of the property i.e. Chinatown, Lower East Side, Financial District. Two Bridges also has a great vibe with its mix of cultures. I almost bought a condo at 7 Essex on Seward Park when it was UC and offering custom design plans. Literally at the crossroads of Chinatown and the LES.

ximon,

YES! 7 Essex is right up my alley! I loved the location because of close proximity to all the neighborhoods! Priced well! Maintenance + taxes = $1.33/sqft which is excellent in a condo! I would love to find something like that! 2bd/2bath at 2mil.. yes! (apt #5A)

I am looking for a 2 bedroom/2 bath... approx 1200-1500sqft

125 Greenwich is out of my price range... 2bd/2bath at $3mil+, which, by itself isn't that bad, but... factoring in the maintenance+tax = $3.35/sqft... I feel it will be too expensive for me. I also anticipate, like many buildings in battery park, the high maintenance will negatively impact sale prices....

This is where 1 Manhattan square has a huge benefit over 125 Greenwich.
48th floor (2.5mil) vs 20th floor (3.2mil)
$1.33/sqft vs $3.35/sqft is a huge difference
(yes! I know! you can't compare a tribeca highrise to a two bridge highrise)

Anything else you might have comparable to 7 Essex? :)

Superlun, What it both 125 Greenwich and 1 Manhattan Square are overpriced with potential 30% downside? Both have a lot of units to be sold.

Take a look at this one. Trying to sell 11% down from the recent purchase but building is still not fully sold and developers has to cut the prices. Who is to say it would sell another 10-15% down. There are many examples of buyers taking a 20% loss in 157 west 57th. Value and current new development prices (barring a few rare exceptions of which 1 Manhattan Square is not one) is oxymoron.

https://streeteasy.com/building/30-park-place-new_york/sale/1300407

Here's one you might like or maybe something else in Nolita:

https://streeteasy.com/building/250-bowery-new_york/6a

300_mercer,
I didn't suggest 125 Greenwich was a value buy, it was suggested by ximon as a good "manhattan-feel" building. I was responding to ximon with regards to financial aspects to how it is beyond my price range. I do NOT see 125 Greenwich as a value buy.

30 Park Place and 157 W 57th Street are hardly "value buy" discussion properties. They are "ultra-luxury" buildings, with 2bedroom apts starting at 5mil and 7mil respectively. I simply don't see a 20yr abatement, 48th floor 2bedroom, luxury building, new development apt for 2.5mil dropping 30%, if it did, then real estate in general would probably already be in turmoil. 300_mercer, I think your outlook on real estate, and I am thinking, the economy as a whole is dismal at best.. hahah... But that is a discussion for another time. Don't get me wrong, I am flabbergasted at the amount of development in NYC and the ability for demand to keep up with supply... but I haven't been seeing any fire sales, have you? a drop in 10-15% on ultra-luxury apts is barely a good rebuttal on a discussion surrounding Value buys...

I would appreciate any input on what would be considered a value buy... 2bedroom/2 bath in the downtown area. 1100-1500sqft.

I am bullish on coops and condos more than 10 year old. New development generally bearish as they are oversupplied and priced too high relative to cost to build them. Virtually all coops in the area you are looking at are good buys. Good luck with 1 Manhattan Square.

300_mercer,
I would love to hear your "bullish" CONDOS of more than 10yo? hmm... from what I see, they are usually disasters!

ximon,
250 Bowery is worth a look at... But ultimately, I will know it will be hard for me to justify that $3.09/sqft (maintenance+tax of #5B). In my mind, I consider $2/sqft (maintenance+RE tax) to be appropriate. Yea, I know I will get a doorman... idk.. still can't get past it.

ximon,
100 Norfolk, because of their abatement, allows them to be at $1.35/sqft (maintenance+tax)... New Development, Super dynamic area with the essex crossing, low-line, etc etc.. I can see Value in this place, but again... I hate being in such close proximity to city housing projects.

I guess when it comes down to it... I am hoping for an abatement development.

But 7 Essex was not an abatement situation, which got me excited that I may not necessarily need an abatement property...

superfun, I am not an economist but I have read that tax abatements, price rebates and similar incentives primarily benefit the developers. in other words, most of the value of the abatement reverts to the developer in the form of higher sales prices. That does not mean that these projects are not appropriately priced as its all about supply and demand but I would not expect abated projects to appreciate at the same rate as fully taxed properties. But that's just my opinion and may not be commonly shared. But if you buy early in the abatement period and sell in the middle, you stand a better chance of finding find a buyer willing to buy into the tax savings as most buyers are short-sighted.

Markets can't possibly go lower (early 90s, 2007, and 2017?) ! Real estate can't go lower! Ultra high end developments prices will never gap lower (really!?)!

Value investing in NYC today is like saying I am buying eBay's stock at 17x P/E and not Amazon 140x. i.e. everything is overpriced on a yield/cap rate basis. The deep value opportunities will come in a correction and not here.

If the purchase is for a personal reason (new baby, or larger family), then absolutely, do what you think is best.

To me Southbridge is not that desirable. Sure you have Seaport opening up in a year of so, but you are literally across the street from the hospital. The board at Southbridge is also pretty incompetent and the building rules are very stringent (ask anyone that has lived here). Most units are ancient and need LOTs of TLC. Many existing tenants got a ridiculous deal during the coop conversion, so some are making lots of $ in the flip and those who are still living there really don't give a crap about anything. Also low ceilings. Oh yeah, the low maintenance which includes monthly A/C. That is not sustainable. You need to have a margin of safety when you look at prevailing maintenance rates.

Hillman, wow, what a run those units have had the past few years, but seriously, its like the projects. No subletting allowed also.

I don't even know why One Manhattan keeps being thrown into this discussion. Anyone that grew up in Manhattan in the 80's and 90s, knows that the area is a complete dump. Sure, there's gentrification a few blocks north, but let's not forget this site (which used to be a Pathmark) is surrounded by projects on all sides. Oh yeah, it's literally on the river, anyone remember Sandy? Down 20% is aggressive? I wouldn't be surprised if its down more. Who's the natural buyer now that the Chinese have been gone?

Shout out to 300_mercer - I have always found your thoughts to be very sensible over the years.

Thank you NYCRebubble. Happy to share my thoughts. I have had many people on this board help me and continue to help me with my questions.

FiDi is cheap but most of it doesn't quite feel like the real Lower Manhattan - i.e. NoLita, SoHo, LES. FiDi feels rough and uncomfortable and grungy. Plus there's no light bc the buildings are tall. Not sure it's worth buying there unless the yields are great and you just plan on renting it out (but then you will compete with tons of rental buildings). OR if you are closer to Tribeca or Chinatown!

With the tax talk/scare, I suspect $2-3m apts will take a hit and wouldn't be surprised if it is already happening. The bill doesn't need to pass. The discussion alone suggests they are coming with their tiki-torches for the elite in Manhattan. Additionally, foreigners are not welcome any more into the country (at least publicly).

Add that to the monthly absorption rate issues Manhattan was already going through (can see data at urbandigs), and I think the next 12-24 months could be a good time to get a deal.

ximon,
Your insight is interesting on a economic level... However, personally speaking... I have had 2 friends who bought into Abatement properties and sold just as the abatement was finishing (those were in Soho and East Village and 2.5mil+)... AND, I have another 2 friends that are approximately midway through their abatement who also intend on selling as their abatement is finishing (both in FiDi and 1.5mil+ each). I guess it is personal experiences which mold our thoughts... I guess I just want a piece of that pie :) and as you said... most buyers are short-sighted.. hahahaha

NYCREBUBBLE
I am not saying RE will not drop... sheesh... any idiot knows all sectors are vulnerable...
Southbridge towers is across the street from the hospital? The complex is so huge! to only point out one side of it is kinda silly... I guess the Gehry building was a flop cuz of the hospital too, huh? I can't disagree with the rest of what you said, but I believe those things can only improve over time as the turnover will improve the "quality" of the tenants... hahaha..

teijoluis,
Yes, I agree, from a value standpoint... it's pretty hard to beat FiDi. It's just... all the great tax abatement buildings are almost done with their abatements, and now you're starting to see those owners flipping their units at a 40-60% profit. It's just annoying for me as a buyer to contribute to that after the abatement is finishing up... I guess this is why I am trying to get in on a abatement beginning, like... 1 Manhattan Sq or 100 Norfolk.

anonymousbk,
Your rationale is flawed! Making foreigners less welcome makes the demand to come even greater! Especially among the wealthy foreigners... Specifically the EB-5 investors which subsequently increases foreign investment into real estate...
Sounds like you're trying to time an untimable market. I don't believe either of us can be proven wrong or right over the next 12-24 months... But I believe I will be proven right over the next 10-15 years.