Manhattan apt sales plunge

Yes we all knew luxury CONTRACTS SIGNED were slow at the end of 2017 as tax reform was not finalized yet. Closing of course for Q1 18 would be impacted by this. It's OLD NEWS. Whats happening NOW with luxury contracts being signed is important

https://therealdeal.com/2018/04/02/manhattans-luxury-market-recorded-26-contracts-last-week-olshan-2/

Manhattan’s luxury rental market recorded 26 contracts at $4 million and above last week, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly market report. That was the second-best total on record for an Easter Week since Olshan began keeping track in 2006.

Let's remember it's not all about luxury.... take a look at the the little brother condo studio market which is powering ahead nicely......

Thanks Riversider. Here is a link to the actual report although I find the narrative in the Bloomberg article more compelling:

http://www.millersamuel.com/files/2018/04/Manhattan-1Q_2018.pdf

“Even with New York real estate prices, you do hit a point in which resistance sets in,” said Frederick Peters, CEO of brokerage Warburg Realty. “People are very anxious about overpaying.”

We may now be at a point where the psychology of buyers and sellers will soon decide in which direction the market will go. It sure looks like seller confidence is lessening and buyer negotiating strength is growing.

My opinion is that we have long passed the time when prices can be justified by normal measures at which point "irrational exuberance" took over, driven mostly by overbuilding and foreign and other investor activity.

We have been here before (S&L crisis, Great Recession among others) so many will remember how this has played out historically. Hopefully, if the economy stays relatively strong, we will see only a correction and not a major slump.

For me, I hope to get my Manhattan condo reno done and sell ASAP. If I can't, I expect I will have to hold for at least few more years.

People need to stop thinking that the problems in the NYC resi market are all at the luxury end. The problems with luxury may be mostly about over-supply but that does not mean that there are no issues with the rest of the market. As for condo studios, I have been looking at prewar condo studios for a while and they lately seem flat at best.

With 30 year fixed interest going up so much over the last 6 months.....its to be expected.

I give it another 9 to 18 months of slow sales then people will forget that a 3.375% 30 year even existed (or they will be busting at the seams with kids in their current 2br condo and 'really really' need to move asap).

Mortgage interest rates have actually slowed a lot more than I thought they would by this stage will be interesting to see what happens in 2018 midterms and 2020 elections as to where we go from here.

In Brooklyn, luxury contracts down week-on-week by almost 50%
https://therealdeal.com/2018/04/02/brooklyn-luxury-market-saw-11-contracts-signed-last-week/

I think the most interesting part for the individual buyer and seller (as compared to people that work in the industry) is speculating whether prices actually move (and how much), rather than just looking at the volume of transactions. I tend to think that they will dip in a meaningful way (more pain for luxury, but trickling down) but I am not completely confident in that view.