REBNY 1Q 2018 data....

Seems right. “Affordable” need-based segment is strong and likely will remain strong as there is not much fully renovated supply at under $1500 per sq ft. Overtime, large apartment say >2000 sq ft and new construction premium will continue to reduce.

There must be some point at which downward pressure from the top trickles into the "affordable luxury" segment no?

I for one think it's inevitable that downward pressure on pricing will trickle down. When you think about it, a $5.5 million condo will move into a lower price category if the value declines 10%. It doesn't mean that all brackets eventually reflect the same softness, however. I agree with 300 that demand for under $1500 psf units will remain relatively strong (at least in the short term) due to lack of new competition if nothing else.

Risk in the current market has more to do with the anticipated health of overall economy. Given where we are in the cycle, any bad news in jobs, interest rates, stock markets, etc. could trigger a big drop in residential pricing, maybe even cause another recession. It's happened before but how soon we forget!

CC, Gap does not discount much during recession but high designs go 50% off.

Cc, Remind me what size, max price and area you are looking in. Does it have to be new construction or a brand new Reno is fine?

cc, I generally work the middle market. (Every couple of years a client takes me to the luxury price point, but that's not my sweet spot). I expect prices to be flat to down over the next couple of years, but not to the point where that will really push any fence-sitters into the market to grab a discount (as contrasted with 2008-2010, where buyers were actively bottom-feeding.)

At the lower end of the market, many currently feel underemployed, or as though their wages are stagnant, but you still have a lot of double-income buyers with decent jobs, and competition among them is a big price support. We're also coming off a roaring year for equities. It will take a lot of job loss (which I hope doesn't happen) to really reverse those factors.

I predict that the cost of money will continue to increase (the Fed has said as much) but I also still consider any interest rates that are sub-six percent to be decent.

So I think it will be a slog for me, but I'm not sure there will be a giant flashing price break for purchasers.

300 I'm already in contract on a brand new construction right where the ferry lets off across the river in NJ, 3 min walk to ferry station, 10 min to midtown. paying 1.5m for 1800+ sq ft 3 BR/3 BA in full service bldg with wrap around terrace and deeded parking spot. Just completely gave up on Manhattan. Anything we would even remotely consider would be over $2m for a 2 BR, nevermind 3.

Just curious if maybe we gave up too soon, but I am still seeing price increases on units in Manhattan I would be interested in.

Citizen 360 for one seems to be doing price increases.

https://streeteasy.com/building/citizen360-condominium

Very nice. Congratulations!!

Thanks. The closing costs on new construction condos over there is also 60% less than it is in NYC.

We also tried looking in Brooklyn and LIC, but didn't like the areas the new buildings were in and they really weren't offering a whole lot of value--small floorplans for not small prices.