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Excuse me?

Started by Ethan129
over 7 years ago
Posts: 157
Member since: Sep 2007
Discussion about 385 First Avenue #19A
Excuse me? Where is this place located? 1st ave and 22nd street? For $2,500 sq ft? Please tell me this is joke. No one with $5 million, or even $4 million, would ever spend it on this apt. Besides being in sh**sville, the view is into the projects across the street is quite impressive.
Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

They call it Gramercy Park? I called it Bedpan Alley when I lived at 25th between First and Second or Peter Cooper to be kind. Nice apt. but $2,500 psf?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

You guys forgetting the terrace in your per sq ft calcs.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

If you are of the school which believes outdoor space should be valued at 50% of indoor space I guess you could say that they are asking $1900/SF.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

The small terrace looks nice although not very private as I count at least 4 terraces in building next door that stare right down. And a bunch of others across the street right at eye level. Larger terrace is where? Is it tucked in between the two buildings?

I guess someone might be happy here and pay the freight. Not me.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

These are very nice terraces and nothing to be sneezed at. It is clearly not a rooftop terrace. So using 30s method which seems to be appropriate for this type of space - perhaps you one need one terrace and outdoor space is worth 40 percent and you can say the price is $2000 per sq ft. It is a little rich for the location but I am sure they will take 10 percent lower.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

$1800 is where this one traded after 20 percent discount from list.
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1330063

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

As far as I can tell, the break even point (i.e. zero return / zero loss ) point for a 1BR investor unit here is at carrying approximately $400k debt. So if you were using that to determine value here, what number would you put on 1 BRs in this building?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Ah. I am not getting into buying vs renting debate on new developments. It is rather complex and I have my own prop models for that which I can not share. In this case, I am just pointing out at what prices other unit sold.

I am a value buyer. I keep the current market levels in mind when defining value rather that being Jeremy Grantham of GMO who thinks that SPX was only right priced for 6-12 months in 2009-10. I also know that he is much richer that me potentially due to his marketing skills. That is a sure way to miss out on opportunities to make money. Majority of new developments are overpriced in my opinion but there is a lot of value in $1000-$1500 per sq ft resales in Manhattan.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

That 50% of $ per interior sf rule of thumb is silly. Value of a terrace depends on many favors including depth and views. A very private terrace overlooking say Central Park that gets good sunlight, permits large furniture, large planters, a water spigot, lighting fixtures and an awning might be worth quite a bit more than interior space. I would say the range is 20%-200%.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Since you seem to know the valuation of outdoor spaces, what percentage of interior space would you value this one and what effective price per sq ft will the listing pricing be? You are forgetting most critical factor for valuation of outdoor space which is how your monthlies are impacted by outdoor space. In this case, monthlies seem to be very fair.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I say you should not rely on a percentage of interior space to value a terrace and then you ask me what percentage of interior space would I use? I know you like to be analytical but my point is that these rules of thumbs do not reflect how buyers look at real estate. If you were shopping for an apartment with outdoor space, you would typically restrict your short list to those apartments with outdoor space.

As a former appraiser, I know that we were often forced to use such rules since there are not always good, recently sold and closed comps to use. The nature of an appraisal requires such mathematical analyses for the files. But I have long since abandoned these tricks and take a more holistic approach to value, putting myself in the shoes of a buyer.

Other rules to try and avoid would be credits/deductions for fireplaces, swimming pools, excess carrying costs, floor heights and tennis courts.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

So you do not have any answer and calculating price per sq ft?

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I have no interest in such an exercise for myself but I see many closed units here so I guess I would look for closed sales in building with terraces. Otherwise, I think it might be hard to find good comps which I might consider a warning sign not to buy.

I also noticed odd (not rounded) sale prices here which makes me suspicious of many foreign investors.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

Did you find any sales here with outdoor space? In my brief look I couldn't find any (it seems there are only a few in the building.)

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

30, Your method of 50 percent is a very good start. However, the size of the terraces is very large relative to the interior for this location. So using 35-40 percent of outdoor space for per sq ft is very reasonable. Since this a newish redevelopment, one has to start from basics rather than finding comps in the building with equivalent outdoor space to arrive at a relative price. If a buyer is smart negotiater, I am sure they will put low ball bid of 20 percent below ask and see if the developer will take it as they have taken for some other apartments. As more people are raising families in the city, the premium for real usable terrace (not a 5x8 balcony which are mostly useless) of at least 7-8 foot wide and 150 sq ft wide seems to have gone up.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Project has an interesting history. Originally named the Luminaire, now the Coda. Plans filed in 2014 , sales began 2015 but building not completed until early 2017. Sales have been very slow - only 34 contracts in first year. Still 17/114 remaining after almost four years of marketing. Chinese development partner got out about a year ago and marketing agent was changed.

Here's an old thread from SE when it was first changed from the Luminaire. Guess what? It's not even new construction but a rehab. Reportedly kept the old windows which was probably not a good idea given the high number of ambulances racing up First Avenue at all times of the day and night.

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/42229-luminaire

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

Where are you getting the 97 units sold (17/114 available) figure from?

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

SE but I don't remember how i calcluated. Maybe only 11 if you count contacts? How would you calculate?

Sales Listings 19 active sales ($1,667 per ft² avg, $1,723,684 avg price)
8 in contract sales ($1,508 per ft² avg, $1,506,875 avg price)
86 previous sales ($1,614 per ft² avg, $1,373,284 avg price)

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Alternatively, 114 units minus 8 in contract minus 86 previous sales = 22 unsold.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

But it looks like some of those "previous sales" didn't sell?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

If you the units "sold" + "recorded closing" + "no longer available" AFTER 5/5/2017 (my reasoning is those classified that way prior to that date represent the broker change), I get 80. Add 8 "in contract" gets you up to 88. So I get 26 / 114 not sold.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Call it 11 unsold. I also wonder if the prices for closed units were negotiated in 2015-17 at the peak of the market and how many of these buyers were looking to flip. I would worry about projects like these that were I assume heavily marketed in China at possibly inflated prices. Could be a downward spiral when these units get put back on the market.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Sorry 30. Missed your last message. So why would there be only 11 units currently offered and not yet under contract?

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Either way, it looks like a pretty unsuccessful project, not necessarily for the developer but for anyone who bought a unit and does not have a long-term view.

Is there anything else planned at this location? I noticed this statement on the Coda website which may just be boilerplate:

"Sponsor makes no representation that future construction in the neighborhood surrounding the Condominium will not result in the obstruction of the views from any windows and/or Terraces."

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Response by Aaron2
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1698
Member since: Mar 2012

It looks like several windows on all floors on the south side of the building would be at risk if the low-rise tenements were replaced, unless there's an easement or air rights transfer in place.

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Response by Ethan129
over 7 years ago
Posts: 157
Member since: Sep 2007

30yrs_RE_20_in_REO, as usual, you're completely clueless when it comes to valuation. Valuing these terraces at 50% of interior? Moronic to say the least. Besides being in a terrible area, the terrace is overlooking what look to be project housing. Clown. This place will sell below $4 million.

And, contrary to what you or someone else said about the monthly maint/taxes being at a good level, no, $6,000/month for this drek is not "good".

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007

Ethan, 30 is very knowledgable and generally bearish. I will refrain from pointing out the moron on this thread. How is "Pete"? His vocabulary is the same as yours - "idiot", "Stupid", "moronic".

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