Price discovery
Started by AHH
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1
Member since: Aug 2018
Discussion about 165 Duane Street #4B
6B was valued at $1.74M in October 2017. (Recorded sale price reflects buyout of half interest.) So, 4B, in similar condition should be closer to $1.65M. It needs a gut and market has softened in that time. 2B renovated but not at a $500K premium to 6B. Great street but falling market will not support this pricing. Glut of condo inventory will suppress co-op loft prices over next 5+ years.
And it's only a 1 bedroom (large, but still...)
AHH, I disagree with your valuation of #4B. I agree that rates are higher and the market is cooler, but #3B from three years ago (sale at $2.095) is a reasonable comp, and I think the layout of this one, with the powder room/laundry, would be very liveable for certain buyers, and have value compared to a straight-up one-bath.
N.B. I'm a broker but not the listing broker.
ali r.
{upstairs realty}
"(Recorded sale price reflects buyout of half interest.) "
My gut says recorded sale price reflects buyout of half interest MINUS sales expenses.
The buyer of 3B was able to borrow money at 3.6% for a 30 year fixed. Today, a 30 year fixed is 4.6%. At 4.6% it's an extra $10K+ in annual carrying costs. Three years ago, the Fed was expanding its balance sheet; today, it is contracting its balance sheet. That means today's buyers not only pay more in carrying costs, but also anticipate a stock market correction. (Not to mention Brexit scheduled for March 29, 2019.) However, 4B does have a half bath. But whole apt needs renovation -- 6B is best comp for 4B.
6B -- the husband bought out the wife on a price determined by an appraisal. There was no broker involved.
AHH,
I think you missed my point. I have been involved in several deals like this and even though there is no broker involved the payout from one partner to the other is often based on what the net payout would be if a sale we're done at the appraised value not the gross.
I've already conceded that "rates are higher." However, while we're looking at historical facts, three years ago the Dow was at 17K+, now it's at 25K+.
If potential buyers of this unit have any equity positions at all (and given the location and price point, it's likely that they do) the buoyancy in their net worth is going to far outweigh the increased carrying cost of their mortgage money.