Fall 2018 selling season

Short of sales activity and results, I would like to know how newly offered units are being priced and if pulled from market earlier in year, at what price relisted?

It's the day after Labor Day! Just back from Westchester, negotiating one deal with a broker who is in Litchfield, whose client is in Dade while my client is in Nassau. Trying to ask a friend who is coming back from Fairfield today for advice. Other big deal is a second show this weekend, when the broker comes back from Suffolk. If the "starting gate has opened," it's lifting slowly. And don't forget the {Jewish New Year} holidays are early this year.

Ali, any idea how the Litchfield market doing? I sold a house on Bantam Lake 3 years ago and am looking to see if it might be a good time to jump back in. I miss that area, so quiet.

Searching pre-war one-bedrooms in the following three neighborhoods:

Three listings I am following in Parc Vendome in Midtown West that were on the market earlier this year are now reduced by 2%, 2% and 3% just this week. No new listings added.

For Southgate in Beekman, there are no new listings and no price reductions just the same hangovers for the past 4-6 months.

In Lincoln Square, one listing reduced this week 6% from May. No new listings that I can find. Everything else seems pat.

@ximon, I do not know. Connecticut not my thing.

@ximon, I do not know. Connecticut not my thing.

From a marketing perspective, I'm not sure what dropping a price from $1,749,000 to $1,699,000 does except tell the market that you are getting anxious. Exactly who is going to look at the property now that wouldn't have looked at it before? What does this price drop accomplish for the seller?

30, What minimum percentage reduction do you generally recommend to attract new pool of buyers?

It's not a percentage: I look to move to a different price category. In my mind the reason to change price is to get new sets of eyes on the property, so if the price change doesn't accomplish this then what is its purpose?
Many times what you see is "nibbling" away at the price because they broker can't get the seller to the correct price so they accept whatever reduction they can squeeze out of the seller. But in general all this results in is further damage to the marketing effort.

30, you are correct that too many people slowly drop the price until they get an offer. Better to right price it and if you are wrong, drop to another price category. But I think it's human nature for sellers to be overly optimistic especially in this market where many/most buyers still think this is 2016.

I think it's in the nature of housing markets to see this psychological behavior which makes for a slippery slope and a extended period of time for the market to find its new price level.

My advice to sellers right now is:
If you think I'm right about where the market is headed then price your property at whatever it takes to move it immediately, and
If you think I'm wrong about where the market is headed take your property off the market and put it back on in January or February.

We actually had a decent August, two recent accepted offers over the last week. Submitting another offer later today.

As far as our listings go, we literally saw an explosion in traffic on streeteasy the day after we relisted (post Labor Day). I'll let you know if any of that was meaningful in the next week.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

I am seeing a lot of new listings hitting my inbox. Still a bit too early to know what Fall sales will be like.

Noah: What are you seeing as far as new listings entering the market? Charts please...

Keith
TBG

Here is an example of what I am talking about re: price reductions:
https://streeteasy.com/building/chelsea-modern/7a?context%5Bcontroller%5D=%23%3CBuildingController%3A0x0000560ff3579848%3E&context%5Bcurrent_user%5D=1040784&hide_if_empty=true&section=sales

In my opinion this should have gone from $2,450,000 to $2,249,000 (rather be than $2,350,000). In my mind no one who is doing a search will see this unit who didn't see it at the prior price so this reduction is somewhat wasted. And in the (somewhat likely) event that the price does get dropped to what I think it should have been, the impact of a large price reduction is lost (I'm not trying to say $100,00 is nothing, but as far as price drops at this level goes I don't think it's an attention grabber, whereas I think $200,000 is getting there and $300,000 definitely would be. Of course it could also send the the "we are getting desperate" message to some people, but at this point - especially with 2 other almost identical units in the same building, and a bunch of others in the immediate vicinity, I think you want any attention you can get).

Difficult to get sellers thinking along those logical lines.

30/tbg
what are your views on where the market heading? and why?

I think it's entirely possible that some potential buyers shied away from looking at listings priced just above their max but will now give it a second thought if dropped by 3-4%.

Also, it is entirely possible that buyers made bids just below the ask that were rejected a few months ago. With a slightly lower ask, these bidders may return.

And just as there are sellers who fail to see the realities of the current market, there are also buyers who are not paying much attention either.

As Ali implies, it's not a good idea to think all buyers and sellers are logical or even do basic homework.

"Also, it is entirely possible that buyers made bids just below the ask that were rejected a few months ago. With a slightly lower ask, these bidders may return."

I think you might be surprised at how much that doesn't happen for 2 reasons:
1) Most of the time once someone gets to the point where they are bidding on units anywhere close to ask (as opposed to going around making low offers on a bunch of properties and patiently waiting for anyone to bite) they fairly quickly move on to the next unit and by the time a unit has lowered their price that buyer is long gone, and
2) Sour grapes almost always kicks in and once someone doesn't get a property they start convincing themselves why they shouldn't have bought it anyway.

In my experience you can see this when you have a board rejection in a coop: even in a hot market where it quickly goes back into contract, it's rare that I have seen the new purchaser being one of the backup buyers from the original deal.

Yes, 30, what you say makes sense. I am only pointing out why some sellers don’t always follow your strategy. And except for your first example, the others reflect signs of irrational behavior which can work both for and against market participants.

While I don't necessarily disagree, betting on the other side exhibiting irrational behavior which would inure to your benefit is a fool's errand.

hi 30, I read some of your comments on SE and realize you look at the city mostly, but do you have any opinion on forest hills trends? we are a 30 something newly wed looking for 2bed and forest hills seems the most realistic for us with good schools and reasonable commute. the prices seem to be still very competitive in sought after buildings for e.g. 70-31 and 70-20 108th. thanks

buyer1604, Forest Hills is pretty hot. While prices in Manhattan are flat or trending down, areas still seen as "affordable" with good commute times into Manhattan (Forest Hills, other parts of Queens, Hudson County NJ, etc) are seeing YOY median increases in the double digits. Inventory is still relatively low. Forest Hills in particular has great subway access, typically very large layouts often with dining alcoves that can be converted , nice open views, and good schools. Keep in mind SE has limited reach as you look further east into Queens so you won't be seeing all available inventory in Forest Hills if you're looking here exclusively.

buyer1604,
In my experience, when the Manhattan Coop market catches the flu, the Queens Coop market gets a heart attach. Back in the 1990s we were taking forever to get $150,000 for 2 BR/1 bath units in decent buildings in Yellowstone Blvd (which had previously been selling in the high $200s) because after market crashes it has generally been near impossible to sell Coops in the outer boroughs until the market shows clear signs of being robust again (houses, OTOH, seem to be a matter of price - you price them low enough and someone will buy). Perhaps things will be different after the next correction - who knows.

Hello!
First time buyer in NYC (moving back to the city), we are looking at South Harlem or the UES preferably a small 2bdr/large 1bdr convertible (around 1200sqft). We almost put an offer in during the lull of the market a couple weeks ago. I know its tough to speculate but should we wait/hold out and rent for a couple months to see where the bottom of the market is as it appears to be turning into a buyers market? We have flexibility currently. We do not need a place until December and can rent if need be. Any opinions?

Thanks!