10 year made a yuuuge move down

I think smart buyers will take advantage of low below 3 percent rates and soft market and pull the trigger. What reaction are you seeing with your buyers?

We're very busy right now.

Great!! Your buyer base is mostly very value conscious and analytical. Glad they are seeing value and acting on it.

Both?

Yield curve inverted ==> Dow dove 800 points.

No inversion yet. 5y still 13bps below 10y and fed can fix the inversion quickly by not raising rates. Believe it or not, I have heard talk that they may have to cut middle of next year if they raise more than once. SPX still higher than it was a week or so back.

Powell can hold off. That might give investors the jitters because it will confirm their slow/dead stop growth thesis. So equity markets may lose anyway. But the longer picture is, if Fed holds off, then it should keep the econ on track vs nose diving. I think while scary, the inversion theory is causing more
worry then it should.. Mkt seems to be pricing in an inevitable recession, which at this point is just a guess.

We have a couple of more weeks before the fed meeting and then we know what Powell is really thinking and if the dot plot comes down.

Not much movement in mortgage rates though. Guess the MBS hasn't moved much?

A lot of discussion regarding fed increasing interest rates as a land mine for equities and real estate. What do you think happens if Mueller drops a major bombshell regarding the president? So far there's a lot of smoke...

Mortgage rates usually lag by a week but private banks adjust within 2 days. The rates will certainly come down if the 10y remains here.

My view is that Muller has nothing on Trump. Otherwise, it would have been leaked by now. Even Flynn's crime was lying to FBI about his meeting with Russian Ambassador post election rather than Russia collusion pre-election. Manafort crimes are unrelated to the elections. Republicans already got punished in House Mid-term for many of these things and Trump's behavior.

So the focus is really Fed, China Slowdown, and impact of tariffs on the economy.

A month or two back my view was in the minority - that 10y rates can go up or go down depending on the economy (we were at 3.10-3.2 on 10y) rather than higher being the most likely path. Now around 3% is seeming to be the mean for 10y treasury rate.

Anyone smart enough to understand the issues......has already locked in years ago.

Its going to be at least a year or two before babies/marriages/desire to move and upgrade etc.....will force smart people to relocate etc even though they locked in.

Id love a 3rd bedroom and separate dining room (would need to move out of Brooklyn heights eg Fort Greene/PLG etc to afford it) but even if I purchased something for the same as what I sold......to re-sign a new mortgage I'd be paying $12-$14k a year more (that's not taking into account I can currently write off $1m but new loans are only $750k).

Dean,
Don't you think that all exerts downwards pressure on the market?

Dean, How do you factor in not having to pay capital gains on first $500k?

Soft landings are difficult, but not impossible. Powell is taking the right tact by signalling a Dec move but a wait and see after that. Inflation is not in sight with oil taking it on the chin. I think 10 will hang below 3 for well into next year. More like 2.9, or until the bots get it into their algo heads that recession is not likely.

@300_mercer ....agree re $500k tax free.

Its bugged me and we considered looking elsewhere for a new property for that exact reason, looks like we may now actually be moving out of state anyway./.....so decision taken out of our hands :(

What are people seeing these days in terms of 30yr and 10yr money? I think the most aggressive lender tends to move around based on capacity, view on market, etc. Historically, Wells always had the lowest rates does anyone have any current views on the matter?

I am refinancing with Wells 10y interest only ARM low LTV at 2.75.

thanks 300--I got a quote from them in mid April at 3.5% on 10yr $$ on a refi--Im 50-60% LTV (already have mortgage with them)--

You should be able to get sub 3 percent for 10/1 arm at most places.

I must add on Jumbo.

300_mercer, are there other fees for the refi?

Small. Attorney fee, underwriting fee, appraisal and a few other small items. Less than $3k all together.

I'm seeing 3.125%-3.25% on 30-year , does that seem in-line ?

I know about 10/1 arm I/O at 2.75. No idea about 30y fixed.

admin2009 - where were you seeing those rates on 30 year fixed?