Prudential - Manhattan Prices Down 3% / Sales Down 22% / Inventory Up 31%
Started by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
I was reading one of the Hamptons mess articles, and notices a small bit with some stats (which I'm surprised never got their own article). Manhattan is "down 3% from the first three months of 2008, according to Prudential.... number of sales in Manhattan dropped 22% to 2,282 in this year's second quarter compared with the year-ago period. Meanwhile, inventory surged 31% to 6,194 units." Strange... [more]
I was reading one of the Hamptons mess articles, and notices a small bit with some stats (which I'm surprised never got their own article).
Manhattan is "down 3% from the first three months of 2008, according to Prudential.... number of sales in Manhattan dropped 22% to 2,282 in this year's second quarter compared with the year-ago period. Meanwhile, inventory surged 31% to 6,194 units."
Strange that I never saw that in a piece about Manhattan RE...
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080730/FREE/703397832/1059/newsletter11
Shock, horror: Hamptons’ home prices take hit
Numbers of unsold homes soar in weekend haven for wealthy New Yorkers.
Theresa Agovino The economic malaise that has only begun to dampen Manhattan’s housing market is hitting one of wealthy New Yorkers’ favorite playgrounds hard. The average price of a home in the Hamptons fell 12% to a still far-from-cheap $1.7 million in the second quarter from the corresponding period in 2007, according to a new report by Prudential Douglas Elliman.
In the exclusive beach community on Long Island’s east end, the average price in the second quarter plummeted 11% from the previous three months.
Meanwhile, in another sign of distress, the inventory of unsold homes in the second quarter jumped by 37%, and the amount of time it takes to sell a home rose by 18% from the year-ago period.
“There is a general weakness when compared to last year,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers, which prepared the data for Prudential. “It coordinates with what is going on in the city.”
Brokers note that the Hamptons are largely enclaves of second homes for wealthy city-based residents, many of them captains of Wall Street firms. When jobs disappear and bonuses shrivel, having multiple abodes can quickly morph into an unnecessary and even unaffordable luxury.
Hamptons brokers are bracing for more bad news. The report doesn’t bode well for the rest of the year.
“Hampton home sales tend to strongest in the second quarter because new owners want to be able to settle in before the summer,” Mr. Miller said.
Back in Manhattan, the average apartment price hit $1.7 million in the second quarter, up 25% from a year ago but down 3% from the first three months of 2008, according to Prudential. The real estate company also reported that the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 22% to 2,282 in this year's second quarter compared with the year-ago period. Meanwhile, inventory surged 31% to 6,194 units.
There were some bright spots in the Hamptons report. During the second quarter, the price of Hampton homes that lie south of Route 27—which puts them closer to the beach—rose 1% over last year and 76% compared with the first three months of 2008.
Another area of relative strength was the island’s less glitzy North Fork. There, home prices jumped 33% to $921,803 in the second quarter, compared with the year-ago period, though prices were down 4% from first-quarter levels.
Rick Hoffman, regional senior vice president for the North Fork and the East End at the Cocoran Group, called Prudential’s report too negative, but noted that his own firm’s second quarter figures were not yet available.
He did concede that deals are taking longer to complete because sellers are refusing to lower their prices and buyers are setting their sights low in the mistakenly belief that fire sales and foreclosures are rampant in the area.
“The days of agents just taking orders for houses are gone,” Mr. Hoffman said. “It is a buyer’s market now.”
[less]
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
btw, who was it that said there was no Manhattan decline? Even the median is down now...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by urnfna
over 17 years ago
Posts: 174
Member since: Jul 2008
Well, this really says a lot:
Despite Manhattan sales volume being down 22%
and inventory being up 31%
prices are only down 3%,
which is probably simply a margin of error off of zero based on the sample size and variability of inventory.
Says a lot about the resilience and quality of the Manhattan marketplace and the perpetual desirability of Manhattan prime RE.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
These data are old.
"Says a lot about the resilience and quality of the Manhattan marketplace and the perpetual desirability of Manhattan prime RE."
Says no such thing. Says that it's the beginning of a downturn.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
Prices down 3%...break out the bubbly.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
> Well, this really says a lot:
> Despite Manhattan sales volume being down 22%
> and inventory being up 31%
> prices are only down 3%,
Yes, it says that you don't understand real estate.
1) Volume declines generally PRECEED price declines. That means "come before".
2) The median is affected by the basket of goods slant. Given that higher end properties are the ones that are selling (and condo sales triple their traditional share), that means that underlying prices on apples to apples woul dbe down far more than 3%
So, short story... 3% is only the beginning.
I'm sure somebody also said at some point in 2000 "this isn't a dotcom crash, stocks are only down 3%"...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by NYbylr
over 17 years ago
Posts: 37
Member since: Jan 2008
According to the article, Q2 2008 prices are up by 25% when compared to Q2 2007 but down 3% when compared to Q1 2008. If I remember correctly, the only reason why prices even jumped that much were because of closings at 15 CPW and the Plaza and the closings of new developments whose contracts were signed in 2006/2007 (when prices were at the peak).
So my view is, median prices are relatively flat. Its not great news but its not terrible news either.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008
Agree 100% with eddiewilson, price declines follow increasing inventory and slowing transactions. Basically, the last few buyers with money (or just dumb money) are buying, while everyone else has left the party. In fact, the high-end and condo skew has contributed significantly to ave/median price increases over the past several years. Condos have been 15-20% more than a similarly situated coop and new construction is nearly always luxury, catering to a higher end clientele. Take those away, and like for like has already decreased far more than 3%.
Manhattan and NYC is not immune to a sharp price decline. Ave prices/sq foot decreased about 20% in nominal terms in the early 90s. I would suspect any decline now would be far greater in magnitude simply because the run-up was far greater. The dam will break here potentially worse than in many other parts of the country. You don't have 50,000 layoffs on wall street (and maybe a 3x factor on the broader nyc economy) and have apt prices stay where they are. Oh, and financing is all but drying up. You can't get financing with 10% down anymore (just ask ManhattanMortgage). Minimum is 15% down and only one firm does that. And jumbo loan prices are skyrocketing. 5/1 i/o arm is 6.8% and 30 yr jumbo fixed is now over 8%. Faced with all of that, how can the average cookie cutter in manhattan be $1.3mm??
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
"Minimum is 15% down and only one firm does that."
Anything nonconforming is 30% down.
Only a fool would take out a jumbo ARM - assume all that interest-rate risk when interest rates are only headed higher.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by alpine292
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Now is a great time to buy in prestigious Wall St. bonus housing slump immune Manhattan. Call a REALTOR today.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008
"Only a fool would take out a jumbo ARM - assume all that interest-rate risk when interest rates are only headed higher."
I'm not saying its a wise thing to do, just that it's what most people who have bought in manhattan for the past 5 years have done. It's the only way many have been able to afford the monthly mortgage on an overpriced apartment.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Those resets are going to be a blast!
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
"I'm not saying its a wise thing to do, just that it's what most people who have bought in manhattan for the past 5 years have done. It's the only way many have been able to afford the monthly mortgage on an overpriced apartment."
My point exactly. Remember the banks were coming out with 40-year mortgages?
Sure signs that things were out-of-whack.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
I don't want to burst your bubble but I'm out there looking and I can't get one agent to negotiate. Maybe things will change but for now it's not that way.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bela
over 17 years ago
Posts: 183
Member since: Jul 2008
i agree with julia. 10% seems the most they are willing to go down or even consider. aslo the stuff that is on the market is mostly junk. i am finding apartments that did not sell 1 yr ago being relisted at the same price. but they are still junk. i challenge all those believers in bubble to find a nice family apartment and get the seller to come down in price.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
This is amusing and I really can't figure out what people's motivations are other than to be loud trolls. EddieWilson I mean you cited all of these negative statistics in volume and inventory, and only a 3% drop in price, and then your justification is that those stats just indicate that the price drop will become bigger by using evidence of the dot com burst (or bust) which is so very different from real property and frankly the bust was almost at the snap of a finger. When should we expect this 3% drop in price to be 10% - how long do you think that'll take? And then how much further will this go? Seriously.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by joedavis
over 17 years ago
Posts: 703
Member since: Aug 2007
Loud Trolls -- I love it. Best description I have seen yet
I am very sympathetic to the notion that based on all logic the market here should be collapsing. However, it is not. This from someone who is actively looking and not finding deals, unlike people who sit here and pontificate. Then you show up here and read Steve and similar wonderful humans and you feel that you should rush out and find something in this collapsing market, not to buy, but to gloat over.
It seems that only here, away from the real world, can you gloat so -- at the prospect.
yes prices seem stable or decreasing, but not by much, and anything that is remotely reasonable (compared to today's market, not 2005 ot 6 or 4 or 3 or 7 or 2 or 1) goes pretty quickly on the UWS.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
> EddieWilson I mean you cited all of these negative statistics in volume and inventory,
> and only a 3% drop in price, and then your justification is that those stats just
> indicate that the price drop will become bigger by using evidence of the dot com burst
> (or bust)
Uh, no I didn't. And nor did anyone else. You really need to work on your reading comprehension. To summarize what *was* said....
1) Real estate sales volume declines generally preceed real estate price declines. And we have one of the biggest volume drops in quite some time
2) Because of the imperfect index issue, the calculated 3% decline is understating the actual drop. The index we're talking about is a MEDIAN, which is affected by apples to oranges comparison - what types of apartments are being sold. In this case, co-ops sales have grinded to a halt, and condos now make up 50% of sales (twice their normal share), which would slant the index upward. So, in short, its already more than 3%...
Next time be more careful...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Talk about a TROLL, joedavis has posted the same post on like 3 threads already... He's the new king troll shill.
All he can point out is the luxury letter, which is a creation of the brokers...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by uwcider
over 17 years ago
Posts: 43
Member since: Aug 2008
Interesting contrast to the New York Times article today.
But the statistics show from +7% 1Brs and +21% for 2BR+ from one source, to -3% for the market as a whole in this source.
As much as I'd like to, I don't buy this leading indicator stuff, when has anyone ever found an economist or market predictor who is right? They say Economists predict 4 times more recessions than there ever are.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
uwc, sales are a lagging indicator. What's the inventory figure?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
> As much as I'd like to, I don't buy this leading indicator stuff, when has anyone ever found an
> economist or market predictor who is right?
uwcider, what is there to predict?
We've already hit a major economic slowdown. We've already got the worst housing crisis in decades. We've already got the worst credit market of all time. We've already got historic wall street layoffs.
This isn't an issue of prediction, this is simply assessing the damage...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by mh23
over 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007
Eddie is correct. Where will the demand come from to stabilize or raise prices? I don't think there is an answer to that question. Now, if quality of life begins to erode on top of all of the other oft mentioned issues, we have a situation where prices can fall fast and hard. I think we will have to wait until 2010 to see if hat plays out, but to be sure prices will continue to go down between now and then as inventory rises, local economic conditions worsen, and bonuses disappear.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Note that in the informal survey on this board, only 1 person (of 10 or so) said the market would decline less than 15%. I know its just a small sample, but the fact is, if everyone thinks its going down 15%, that in itself can be enough to make it so. The Wall Street bonus numbers will just be the trigger...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Victor1
over 17 years ago
Posts: 5
Member since: Aug 2008
Prices are up 7% on one bedrooms.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Try pulling an up to date state...
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
sorry, STAT
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
"Prices are up 7% on one bedrooms."
No.
"Prices WERE up 7% on one bedrooms." Sales are a lagging indicator.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by newbuyer99
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008
Just a comment about agents/sellers not being willing to negotiate. My experience in recent weeks/months has been the opposite. Looking at 3-4 bedroom apartments on UES, UWS and and midtown (east and west). Bela, maybe they're junk, but that's quite a subjective term.
Tons of price decreases. Tons of agents volunteering that prices are negotiable. My favorite is this email I got last week, for an apartment initially listed for $2.1MM in June, then reduced to $2.0MM in early July:
"Dear Friends and Colleagues,
We have lowered the price of ___ to 1,930,000. Please contact me if you would like any of your customers/friends to come and see the apartment.
Incase you have forgotten this is the sprawling 3 bed, 3 bath with river views. Room for negotiation.
Kind regards."
To Julia's and Bela's point, the decreases are not huge, I haven't seen any agents encouraging me to offer 20% below asking, etc. However, they are decreasing and inviting negotiation. Hoping it's just the beginning - I can be patient.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EAO
over 17 years ago
Posts: 146
Member since: Aug 2007
Newbuyer99, was that 10 EA that you got the e-mail for?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by newbuyer99
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008
Affirmative
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by curiously
over 17 years ago
Posts: 91
Member since: Jun 2008
Julia and Bela: your ot is 12 days old, but forget the broker, if you find somethig you lke why not Just offer what you are willing to pay for an apartment>>>whats the worst that can happen...they say no and you move on, but maybe you stumble upon a serious seller and get a deal. Nobody is going to publicly announce a fire sale.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by julia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
curiously; your comments are not on point...of course I made my offer to many brokers and got the same response...it's not a serious offer
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by cloggedsink
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2008
So petrfitz, you seem to have an eye for good property.
I'd like to buy something in the $1MM range in Manhattan, would love a big 1BR, or even a small 2 if that is at all possible, no co-ops, nothing with low ceilings, and nothing way way out of the way. Preferably chelsea and south (I work downtown).
Downpayment and mortgage are no issue in this price range.
Any general or specific suggestions?
I'm willing to be patient, up to 18 months.
Thanks
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by cloggedsink
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2008
oh, and doorman isn't necessary and neither are a bunch of unnecessary ammenities if the area is good
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by curiously
over 17 years ago
Posts: 91
Member since: Jun 2008
gotcha julia...keep plugging....what size apt. are you in the market for and what location? I know some sellers>
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by beatyerputz
over 17 years ago
Posts: 330
Member since: Aug 2008
hey "cloggedsink" - excellent choice of people to ask for advice! while you're at it, why don't you ask petrfitz who to vote for.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by haterhater
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16
Member since: Aug 2008
yawn.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by cloggedsink
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3
Member since: Aug 2008
No, peterfitz has ideas on where to invest his money. Then he invests his money (i.e. puts money where mouth is).
Voting is free to anyone. And frankly, isn't what I'm interested in. What do his political leanings have to do with whether he can make money in real estate and therefore might have helpful perspective on where to buy?
If I were to ask some of the others like EddieWilson, MMAfia, dco, stevejhx, their answer would be to rent ... so if I am a buyer, why would I ask them since I already know that they don't believe in buying anywhere?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
> Then he invests his money (i.e. puts money where mouth is).
In Las Vegas, right before the crash. He also admitted he went bankrupt in NYC real estate previously.
So, be careful who you take advice from
> If I were to ask some of the others like EddieWilson, MMAfia, dco, stevejhx, their answer would be
> to rent ...
Not exactly... I've been saying "12 to 18 months" a lot. And, hell, you pretty much did the same...
> I'm willing to be patient, up to 18 months.
I'm not saying never buy, just that you are going to get better and better options for at least the next year. If you find someone desperate, maybe sooner than later...
I've also said, long term, bang for the buck, I like downtown (which works for you commute-wise). Its been at a discount to neighborhoods uptown for quite some time, but I think that gap will close within 10 years, and there is a LOT of inventory right now...
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
btw, who was it that said there was no Manhattan decline? Even the median is down now...
Well, this really says a lot:
Despite Manhattan sales volume being down 22%
and inventory being up 31%
prices are only down 3%,
which is probably simply a margin of error off of zero based on the sample size and variability of inventory.
Says a lot about the resilience and quality of the Manhattan marketplace and the perpetual desirability of Manhattan prime RE.
These data are old.
"Says a lot about the resilience and quality of the Manhattan marketplace and the perpetual desirability of Manhattan prime RE."
Says no such thing. Says that it's the beginning of a downturn.
Prices down 3%...break out the bubbly.
> Well, this really says a lot:
> Despite Manhattan sales volume being down 22%
> and inventory being up 31%
> prices are only down 3%,
Yes, it says that you don't understand real estate.
1) Volume declines generally PRECEED price declines. That means "come before".
2) The median is affected by the basket of goods slant. Given that higher end properties are the ones that are selling (and condo sales triple their traditional share), that means that underlying prices on apples to apples woul dbe down far more than 3%
So, short story... 3% is only the beginning.
I'm sure somebody also said at some point in 2000 "this isn't a dotcom crash, stocks are only down 3%"...
According to the article, Q2 2008 prices are up by 25% when compared to Q2 2007 but down 3% when compared to Q1 2008. If I remember correctly, the only reason why prices even jumped that much were because of closings at 15 CPW and the Plaza and the closings of new developments whose contracts were signed in 2006/2007 (when prices were at the peak).
So my view is, median prices are relatively flat. Its not great news but its not terrible news either.
Agree 100% with eddiewilson, price declines follow increasing inventory and slowing transactions. Basically, the last few buyers with money (or just dumb money) are buying, while everyone else has left the party. In fact, the high-end and condo skew has contributed significantly to ave/median price increases over the past several years. Condos have been 15-20% more than a similarly situated coop and new construction is nearly always luxury, catering to a higher end clientele. Take those away, and like for like has already decreased far more than 3%.
Manhattan and NYC is not immune to a sharp price decline. Ave prices/sq foot decreased about 20% in nominal terms in the early 90s. I would suspect any decline now would be far greater in magnitude simply because the run-up was far greater. The dam will break here potentially worse than in many other parts of the country. You don't have 50,000 layoffs on wall street (and maybe a 3x factor on the broader nyc economy) and have apt prices stay where they are. Oh, and financing is all but drying up. You can't get financing with 10% down anymore (just ask ManhattanMortgage). Minimum is 15% down and only one firm does that. And jumbo loan prices are skyrocketing. 5/1 i/o arm is 6.8% and 30 yr jumbo fixed is now over 8%. Faced with all of that, how can the average cookie cutter in manhattan be $1.3mm??
"Minimum is 15% down and only one firm does that."
Anything nonconforming is 30% down.
Only a fool would take out a jumbo ARM - assume all that interest-rate risk when interest rates are only headed higher.
Now is a great time to buy in prestigious Wall St. bonus housing slump immune Manhattan. Call a REALTOR today.
"Only a fool would take out a jumbo ARM - assume all that interest-rate risk when interest rates are only headed higher."
I'm not saying its a wise thing to do, just that it's what most people who have bought in manhattan for the past 5 years have done. It's the only way many have been able to afford the monthly mortgage on an overpriced apartment.
Those resets are going to be a blast!
"I'm not saying its a wise thing to do, just that it's what most people who have bought in manhattan for the past 5 years have done. It's the only way many have been able to afford the monthly mortgage on an overpriced apartment."
My point exactly. Remember the banks were coming out with 40-year mortgages?
Sure signs that things were out-of-whack.
I don't want to burst your bubble but I'm out there looking and I can't get one agent to negotiate. Maybe things will change but for now it's not that way.
i agree with julia. 10% seems the most they are willing to go down or even consider. aslo the stuff that is on the market is mostly junk. i am finding apartments that did not sell 1 yr ago being relisted at the same price. but they are still junk. i challenge all those believers in bubble to find a nice family apartment and get the seller to come down in price.
This is amusing and I really can't figure out what people's motivations are other than to be loud trolls. EddieWilson I mean you cited all of these negative statistics in volume and inventory, and only a 3% drop in price, and then your justification is that those stats just indicate that the price drop will become bigger by using evidence of the dot com burst (or bust) which is so very different from real property and frankly the bust was almost at the snap of a finger. When should we expect this 3% drop in price to be 10% - how long do you think that'll take? And then how much further will this go? Seriously.
Loud Trolls -- I love it. Best description I have seen yet
I am very sympathetic to the notion that based on all logic the market here should be collapsing. However, it is not. This from someone who is actively looking and not finding deals, unlike people who sit here and pontificate. Then you show up here and read Steve and similar wonderful humans and you feel that you should rush out and find something in this collapsing market, not to buy, but to gloat over.
It seems that only here, away from the real world, can you gloat so -- at the prospect.
yes prices seem stable or decreasing, but not by much, and anything that is remotely reasonable (compared to today's market, not 2005 ot 6 or 4 or 3 or 7 or 2 or 1) goes pretty quickly on the UWS.
> EddieWilson I mean you cited all of these negative statistics in volume and inventory,
> and only a 3% drop in price, and then your justification is that those stats just
> indicate that the price drop will become bigger by using evidence of the dot com burst
> (or bust)
Uh, no I didn't. And nor did anyone else. You really need to work on your reading comprehension. To summarize what *was* said....
1) Real estate sales volume declines generally preceed real estate price declines. And we have one of the biggest volume drops in quite some time
2) Because of the imperfect index issue, the calculated 3% decline is understating the actual drop. The index we're talking about is a MEDIAN, which is affected by apples to oranges comparison - what types of apartments are being sold. In this case, co-ops sales have grinded to a halt, and condos now make up 50% of sales (twice their normal share), which would slant the index upward. So, in short, its already more than 3%...
Next time be more careful...
Talk about a TROLL, joedavis has posted the same post on like 3 threads already... He's the new king troll shill.
here are some other examples
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4452-have-manhattan-prices-actually-come-down
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4466-area-most-able-to-survive-a-downturn
All he can point out is the luxury letter, which is a creation of the brokers...
Interesting contrast to the New York Times article today.
But the statistics show from +7% 1Brs and +21% for 2BR+ from one source, to -3% for the market as a whole in this source.
As much as I'd like to, I don't buy this leading indicator stuff, when has anyone ever found an economist or market predictor who is right? They say Economists predict 4 times more recessions than there ever are.
uwc, sales are a lagging indicator. What's the inventory figure?
> As much as I'd like to, I don't buy this leading indicator stuff, when has anyone ever found an
> economist or market predictor who is right?
uwcider, what is there to predict?
We've already hit a major economic slowdown. We've already got the worst housing crisis in decades. We've already got the worst credit market of all time. We've already got historic wall street layoffs.
This isn't an issue of prediction, this is simply assessing the damage...
Eddie is correct. Where will the demand come from to stabilize or raise prices? I don't think there is an answer to that question. Now, if quality of life begins to erode on top of all of the other oft mentioned issues, we have a situation where prices can fall fast and hard. I think we will have to wait until 2010 to see if hat plays out, but to be sure prices will continue to go down between now and then as inventory rises, local economic conditions worsen, and bonuses disappear.
Note that in the informal survey on this board, only 1 person (of 10 or so) said the market would decline less than 15%. I know its just a small sample, but the fact is, if everyone thinks its going down 15%, that in itself can be enough to make it so. The Wall Street bonus numbers will just be the trigger...
Prices are up 7% on one bedrooms.
Try pulling an up to date state...
sorry, STAT
"Prices are up 7% on one bedrooms."
No.
"Prices WERE up 7% on one bedrooms." Sales are a lagging indicator.
Just a comment about agents/sellers not being willing to negotiate. My experience in recent weeks/months has been the opposite. Looking at 3-4 bedroom apartments on UES, UWS and and midtown (east and west). Bela, maybe they're junk, but that's quite a subjective term.
Tons of price decreases. Tons of agents volunteering that prices are negotiable. My favorite is this email I got last week, for an apartment initially listed for $2.1MM in June, then reduced to $2.0MM in early July:
"Dear Friends and Colleagues,
We have lowered the price of ___ to 1,930,000. Please contact me if you would like any of your customers/friends to come and see the apartment.
Incase you have forgotten this is the sprawling 3 bed, 3 bath with river views. Room for negotiation.
Kind regards."
To Julia's and Bela's point, the decreases are not huge, I haven't seen any agents encouraging me to offer 20% below asking, etc. However, they are decreasing and inviting negotiation. Hoping it's just the beginning - I can be patient.
Newbuyer99, was that 10 EA that you got the e-mail for?
Affirmative
Julia and Bela: your ot is 12 days old, but forget the broker, if you find somethig you lke why not Just offer what you are willing to pay for an apartment>>>whats the worst that can happen...they say no and you move on, but maybe you stumble upon a serious seller and get a deal. Nobody is going to publicly announce a fire sale.
curiously; your comments are not on point...of course I made my offer to many brokers and got the same response...it's not a serious offer
So petrfitz, you seem to have an eye for good property.
I'd like to buy something in the $1MM range in Manhattan, would love a big 1BR, or even a small 2 if that is at all possible, no co-ops, nothing with low ceilings, and nothing way way out of the way. Preferably chelsea and south (I work downtown).
Downpayment and mortgage are no issue in this price range.
Any general or specific suggestions?
I'm willing to be patient, up to 18 months.
Thanks
oh, and doorman isn't necessary and neither are a bunch of unnecessary ammenities if the area is good
gotcha julia...keep plugging....what size apt. are you in the market for and what location? I know some sellers>
hey "cloggedsink" - excellent choice of people to ask for advice! while you're at it, why don't you ask petrfitz who to vote for.
yawn.
No, peterfitz has ideas on where to invest his money. Then he invests his money (i.e. puts money where mouth is).
Voting is free to anyone. And frankly, isn't what I'm interested in. What do his political leanings have to do with whether he can make money in real estate and therefore might have helpful perspective on where to buy?
If I were to ask some of the others like EddieWilson, MMAfia, dco, stevejhx, their answer would be to rent ... so if I am a buyer, why would I ask them since I already know that they don't believe in buying anywhere?
> Then he invests his money (i.e. puts money where mouth is).
In Las Vegas, right before the crash. He also admitted he went bankrupt in NYC real estate previously.
So, be careful who you take advice from
> If I were to ask some of the others like EddieWilson, MMAfia, dco, stevejhx, their answer would be
> to rent ...
Not exactly... I've been saying "12 to 18 months" a lot. And, hell, you pretty much did the same...
> I'm willing to be patient, up to 18 months.
I'm not saying never buy, just that you are going to get better and better options for at least the next year. If you find someone desperate, maybe sooner than later...
I've also said, long term, bang for the buck, I like downtown (which works for you commute-wise). Its been at a discount to neighborhoods uptown for quite some time, but I think that gap will close within 10 years, and there is a LOT of inventory right now...