What's the real inventory?
Started by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 6 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009
Discussion about
In a recent article "Waldorf Astoria’s 375 new condos to hit the market this fall" https://ny.curbed.com/nyc-development/2019/6/11/18661133/waldorf-astoria-new-york-condos-sales-launch-douglas-elliman Jonathan Miller is quoted again as saying "that close to 8,000 new condos remained unsold in 2018." I am assuming this is city wide, but for new construction AND resales less than 5 years old Urban Digs has only 2,403 listings in Manhattan. Clearly there is a TON of shadow inventory out there and therefore all the statistics about what percentage of units are selling, length of time to sell, etc. are all skewed as a result.
I don't see high inventory at all, honestly.
Totally agree. This market is being artificially propped up by strictly limiting supply a la diamond industry. Developers are picking up inventory loans to maintain this illusion as long as possible.
How long will this last? Will this be a soft landing or a pop? That's anyone's guess.
New Dev inventory is very hard to track in rls, which is what UD inventory is sourced from. Most developers only put a handful of active listings into the RLS, in fact, they usually bulk upload contract signed listings at a future date. Both represent just w fraction
Ugh hit send too soon. Both represent usually just a fraction of what actually was for sale and what entered contract in the schedule A of the offering plan.
In ideal situation, developer would care a record for all units in schedule a, and then take x amount off market should they choose to do so. At least then we can track it
Noah,
That is exactly my point. As such, if you include the reality of these thousands of units which are on the market but not being counted the "real" statistics are different than we are seeing.
Yup!