Streeteasy board - a primer

actually, joepa, i only post on a very few threads and only when i'm bored.

"shocked at how misleading steve's comments/calculations are"

all of my "comments / calculations" are documented with links. Check it out.

Please, please, please stop saying you only post on a few threads, stevehjx. You spend hours every, single day posting on each and every active thread. Yes, you may let a few go here and there, but that is still fairly rare. Must be that "Ivory League" competitive streak in you...

* Sales: Streeteasy board - a primer (3) THIS ONE
* Sales: Open House Reports??? (2) NO
* Sales: LIC Sucks (164) YES
* Market: Housing Prices Far From Hitting Bottom: Whitney (42) YES
* Market: $18 billion less in pay and benefits (19) YES
* Market: NYT: 1BR Glut (78) YES
* Sales: The 505 (248) NO
* Sales: August at the beach, September sales (5) NO
* Sales: If you can demonstrate market movement with comps, please post here. (107) YES
* Sales: Weird layouts, placement of bathrooms. Which is your favorite? (8) NO
* Sales: How Much Will NYC Decline... (144) YES
* Sales: Ground floor apt (8) NO
* Sales: Am I crazy??? (5) NO
* Sales: US real estate brokerage commissions abnormally high by international standard (40) YES
* Sales: building at 25 Bradhurst Avenue (1) NO

There's that. Most of the ones I post on I start.

"You spend hours every, single day posting on each and every active thread."

Apparently, wrong.

joepa - great comment. I guess I fall into your "naive poster" category . . .

lol!

this is funny....

stevejhx has a band of ghost writers, he really doesn't exist. He might even be the Bruce Willis of the sixth sense in RE...."I see a dead market"

Who is EddieWilson anyway? Is he dco? Is he MMafia? Is he stevejhx but without the fake academic credentials?

EddieWilson is.... Eddie Wilson. Who else would he be?

Stevehjx, you just posted the following today:

"I'm not right about everything and I'm the first to admit it when I'm wrong, but no one - no one - has posted more detail about the housing market than I have."

So what is it? Do you post a lot or not? Your story seems to change with each post...

now now, Starfish, now now

> Who is EddieWilson anyway? Is he dco? Is he MMafia? Is he stevejhx but without the fake academic
> credentials?

Wishful thinking, but, no... its a bunch of folks who all agree the market is on its way down....

But, I wouldn't be surprised if starfish is p2015 is jsmith9005 (which are all LIC). They figure that if they post enough nonsense posts and insults, noone will notice the market is crashing.

PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!

"the market" is a pretty vague term, given that you can't buy the real estate market.

Actually, thanks to Case Shiller, you can pretty much do that. Plus, there are a number of real estate ETFs you can purchase....

nyc housing etfs? what is the stock symbol?

Oh, NYC specifically.... pick up the Dow Jones / Case Schiller NYC...

what is the stock symbol?

just google it...

stock symbol for NYC real estate? what is it? none? :)

"stock symbol for NYC real estate? what is it? none?"

durrhh... VNO? There's a stock symbol for NYC real estate. Short that and get rich Einstein.

1. It's a stock symbol.
2. It's an excellent exposure proposition to NYC real estate.

You're welcome.

"he really doesn't exist."

I DO! I SWEAR I DO!

"Do you post a lot or not? Your story seems to change with each post..."

Sometimes, I post a lot. Other times, I don't post for a week or two. Just depends on who's visiting, & what the bad gnus is.

VNO is a realty trust, and has great management. However, if you are asking because you want to short NYC real estate, which I think is what your plan is, you can sell calls or buy puts on housing futures at CME..However, their NYC index is not just Manhattan, and is many counties around the island of Manhattan.

VNO is a good short in the 95-98 range. VNO is a good cover in the 85-88 range for now. It will take a while for VNO to get that earnings hit you probably are looking for when the stock opens down 15% the next day.

"VNO is a good short in the 95-98 range. VNO is a good cover in the 85-88 range for now."

Trading advice from a guy who covered his shorts at DOW 12,000! - urbandigs, you should stick to selling real estate and spare us the trading advice.

Vornado (VNO) is more than just NYC real estate. And to the extent it is NYC real estate, it is office, not residential.

lol - love it MAVEN! Is that all you got? You know I was short heavily from DOW 13,100, and long heavily on this latest bounce from 10,800. Im up about 28% in the past 12 months, compared to markets down about 15-20%.

PS: if you look at comment #2 from SEPT 2007 discussion on my blog, you will see that I disclosed being short VNO at 108 and telling the previous commenter to look at VNO in 6 months. Well, in late March it was in low-mid 80s.

Try again MAVEN!!!!

http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/09/top_fund_manager_sells_nyc_re.html

link for comment #2 I mentioned above

this board sucks

> stock symbol for NYC real estate? what is it? none? :)

genius, I already named the index you can buy...

> Dow Jones / Case Schiller NYC...

If you can't read, don't lash out...

ffd

Stevejhx- just curious, but did you go to school in the "ivory (?)" league?

EddieWilson
> stock symbol for NYC real estate? what is it? none? :)
genius, I already named the index you can buy...
> Dow Jones / Case Schiller NYC...
If you can't read, don't lash out...

EddieWilson you remarkable piece of shit.
There is no Dow Jones / Case Shiller NYC index that you can buy on any exchange.
You are an unbelievable liar.

At least the asshole who came up with VNO tried, even though that is hardly what it was represented to be. But at least it was a stock that could be bought and sold and has some bearing on NYC real estate.

But EddieWilson, you are just a lowlife lying piece of shit and its been proven.

For anyone to see, go to finance.google.com and you can type in any portion of a stock name, type in Case or Schiller and you'll find nothing.
He's a liar.

Just like Steve and his Ivy League education, but at least for Steve, when he's pressed he'll clarify what the real truth is.

"you go to school in the "ivory (?)" league?"

I have a master's from Columbia. "Ivory" was a joke.

"He's a liar. Just like Steve and his Ivy League education."

The diploma is right there on my wall: ...HAVING COMPLETED THE STUDIES AND SATISFIED THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADMITTED TO THAT DEGREE WITH ALL THE RIGHTS THERETO APPERTAINING, IN WITNESS WHEREOF WE HAVE CAUSED THE OUR CORPORATE SEAL TO BE HERE AFFIXED IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK..."

Find somebody with a degree from Columbia and ask them to read what it says, see if I got the wording right.

"you are just a lowlife lying piece of shit and its been proven."

"the our" = "our."

"lol - love it MAVEN! Is that all you got? You know I was short heavily from DOW 13,100, and long heavily on this latest bounce from 10,800. Im up about 28% in the past 12 months, compared to markets down about 15-20%.

PS: if you look at comment #2 from SEPT 2007 discussion on my blog, you will see that I disclosed being short VNO at 108 and telling the previous commenter to look at VNO in 6 months. Well, in late March it was in low-mid 80s."

urbandigs - saying you should short VNO on a blog is a lot different than risking real money on a trade. There's no way for me to disprove your supposed "28%" returns but what I do know for a fact is that online bloggers like yourself are prone to exxagerating their gains and refrain from disclosing their losses. Anyhow, as mentioned before, stick to writing real estate where you excel and refrain from dispensing trading advice where you may find yourself caught with your shorts down.

Hmm, another person thinks Eddie Wilson is an ass. Interesting . . .

Ivy League diplomas are written in Latin. Why isn't yours?

yea I figured you would come back with something along those lines. Short VNO

zorter
3 days ago
Zorter: And we ALL know if you don't listen to Eddie Wilson you are making one tragic mistake, Get a grip and call me in 7 years when there is a HUGE increase over todays prices.Lets not forget real estate is a LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

EddieWilson
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse Actually, its not. The long term real return on RE is just about 0. (source: Shiller)

Hey Urbandigs - way to go on that VNO call - licking your chops right about now, huh? I knew I should have bought more when you told us to short it! LOL

> Get a grip and call me in 7 years when there is a HUGE increase over todays prices.

Dude, please come back here in 7 years, I'd love for you to repeat the statement...

> The long term real return on RE is just about 0. (source: Shiller)

Yes, you were right in quoting me. Here is the data:
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/08/shiller-index.html

was waiting for that Maven, I bet you check VNO daily until it broke out. I guess you NOTHING about trading strategies, ranges, break outs, stop losses, or when to dollar cost average. Its not like the calls are correct 100% of the time. If you look at the chart, you see the trading range and the ideal place to short, but any savvy trader knows, that if it breaks out, you have a decision to make; get out or dollar cost average.

urbandigs - fyi, I am a trader so no need to explain the basics to me. My point is that you make a trading call with such certainty (ie. "Short VNO" 2 days ago) that it someone listened to you, they'd be feeling the pain now. Like I said, stick to real estate and leave the trading to professionals (like me). I feel no need to dispense advice on a trade when I might be in and out within hours and may leave someone hanging not knowing if they should sell or buy more. Hopefully, you realize the fallacy of your rebuttal and not let leave some poor schmuck stuck in a bad trade because you offered BAD advice. The market has a wonderful way of humbling jokers like you (with respect to your trading tips).

Would people PLEASE start using the plural for 'data'? It's starting to drive me crazy!

The data are, the datum is.

Please!

maven - VNO is at 101! what kind of trader are you freaking out if a tradable stock breaks out 3 points from a range. This is a public forum and I brought up VNO only because the discussion brought it out regarding who had exposure to Manhattan real estate. Anyone buying simply from a mention in a public forum, knows that trading involves risk.

To hear you talk of your professionalism, sounds like you make right calls 100% of the time because as you say, "Like I said, stick to real estate and leave the trading to professionals (like me)"

I used to be like you, trading in and out of positions each hour. I did it for 6 years with Tradescape, starting in 1998's asian financial contagion summer. And I must say, that my trading has evolved much more into a position managing style, rather than in & out and flat by end of the day.

Poor schmuch because they may or may not have shorted VNO at 98, and now its 100.90, HA! You have got to be kidding me, seriously now. But then again, from the sound of it, you are always right and therefore have no desire to dispense advice.

The bigger picture concerns me Maven, not a point here and a point there anymore. The stock breaks out, you adapt. Until then, there were quite a few profitable trades there. Nothing is static. Humbling jokers like me? I wonder what you think of all the 'professionals' on CNBC who called their 3rd bottom now.

And while we are at it, why not bring up how on in mid Oct, 2007, I flat out stated my feelings on a sever adjustment in stock prices due to the deteriorating credit markets, and the short term bottom on July 11th as the VIX got above 28 and S&P was around 1235..Bigger Picture maven. At least I have balls to discuss these things, knowing I may be wrong. You know why? BECAUSE NOBODY, NOT EVEN YOU MAVEN, ARE RIGHT ALL THE TIME! You eating me out because VNO is $2.90 higher than the top of the range I blurbed about shorting it, tells me how narrow sited your trading mentality is. Not that its bad, but as you say, you are an hour by hour trader.

urbandigs - a little riled up now, are we big fella? My friend, I trade both big picture and small picture (often thru index options and put/call trading) - I have both short and long term strategies employed, often simultaneously. Once again, as you should know, you're only as good as your last trade. What should concern readers her is that when a real estate broker (not full-time professional trader who admittedly has establised some credibility as a real estate blogger) starts offering trading tips to the untrained layman then watch out. Your real estate savvy doesn't translate into trading savvy. Your "big picture" calls are not beacuse you have the cohones but you're just parroting themes laid out by economists/market strategists (real market professionals, not just wannabes) on other websites.

The point is not being wrong because "VNO is $2.90 higher" but because you claim to offer trend advice on the Manhattan real estate market by doling out trading tips w/out a sophisticated rationale, you're doing your readers a disservice if they listen to you - I don't write a blog so I don't need to retain my credibility. I also don't follow your stock market guidance because you lack the credibility - but some poor unknowing novice may not know the difference and take a loss due to your half-assed market advice. Take the advice and redeem yourself otherwise you'll continue to look like a chump.

maven, you should calm the hell down. as far as i can tell, urbandigs has always been knowledgeable in the real estate advice he's given on this board. (and he also seems like a pretty upstanding guy from what i can tell.) he did make that trading call in the context of someone else's comment. and it's true: any shmuck that follows trading advice from a message board probably has worse problems to deal with than a few points off on VNO or whatever. get the chip off your shoulder and pick a better fight.

dumber is smarter than maven

and there is no need to use the word datum

LOL, thanks for the asshole comment AnneC... much appreciated. Of course there isn't a Manhattan ETF. But as far as Manhattan real estate exposure via a stock symbol goes, I am correct, albeit at the expense of being labeled an asshole for being correct.

Let's get even more specific here- VNO is in fact held by real-estate ETFs to gain exposure into the Manhattan real estate market in particular in their basket.

http://www.smartmoney.com/eqsnaps/index.cfm?story=reverse&symbol=vno&SortColumn=AstPct&sortBy=DESC&searchType=ETF

What I'm doing is slicing out the Manhattan portion of these Real Estate ETFs to provide you with the answer of a stock symbol that represents Manhattan real estate. Asshole or not, it is what it is.

as far as the sparring between Urban and maven goes, arguing about daily price movements is a waste of time. revisit the sparring in 6 months instead. we are not day traders here.

Maven - first off, I'm a trader who has been following the markets for 18+ years and trading professionally from 1998-2004. I started real estate late 2004. Second, I publish and you criticize. Its that simple. You got the easy job. You want to impress anyone, make a fuck*in call or show some glimpse of your vast knowledge that you so elegantly say you have with your complex long & short strategies and never wrong calls, and tell us why you are positioning yourself the way you are for the future. I have a strange feeling you wont do that, probably because '...I have no reason to share with you my greatness', or other such reason.

Loss of credibility? Save that for the guys that played down this credit crisis from the beginning, and not for someone like me who has been detailing the cycle publicly for the past 12 months, on how severe it is going to be. Ben Stein comes to mind. You know the guy that states 'subprime doesnt matter'. Or the guy that has predicted the end to the write-downs for 2 quarters now and even talks of write-ups since early 2008. Or that 2nd half recovery that I have been against since it propped up 4-6 months ago. You know, GS made a bullish call on XLF at 25 and then took it back a week later and said to short it at 21. T Boone Pickens was publicly short on oil at 98 a while back, then got publicly bullish on oil a few weeks later at 115 or so, and then a week ago said he was long & bullish on oil at $115. Does that mean Goldman Sachs and Pickens lose all credibility? Of course not.

MMAfia understands the call, you dont because you trade hourly. Short VNO in this bear market rally, and lets revisit in 6-8 months when fundamentals catch up with the NYC economy. There are many reasons to believe the NYC office market is well on its way into a substantial slowdown, and if someone asks how to play it, VNO seems a good start. Tearing apart a comment of mine that reflects a trading range for this stock over the past 3 months, is plain stupid. As I said, you criticize very well. I'll be surprised when I wake up one day and you have an actual opinion to share on the market, some essence of foresight backed by your bulletproof rationale, and where you think we are headed. But we both know that wont happen, for risk of you being wrong. Must be a nice position to be in.

I'm not a trader, but I think urbandigs does deserve some credit for being ahead of the curve as to how bad the credit crisis is, as well as making some correct predictions about the coming slowdown in Manhattan real estate. I had been bullish on Manhattan real estate for years, but at the very end of 07, things turned negative fast. I have been persuaded by the arguments made by Steve and Urbandigs, and now the facts are demonstrating how correct they were.
I think that the remainder of this year will be very slow for transactions with prices continuing to creep downward. In early 09, when people realize that there is no bonus bounce, that wall street is in still worse shape, and the city's budget woes take center stage, I think buyers will all wake up at the same time and try to cash out, or they will have to sell due to changes in their own financial situation. When that happens, prices will drop sharply, inventory will rise, and we will truly enter into the beginning of this real estate slowdown.

> Hmm, another person thinks Eddie Wilson is an ass. Interesting . . .

Hmmm... once again, LIC jumps onto the side of a complete idiot. The asshole is wrong, and there is LIC waving her flag like the idiot he is.

I said:

> genius, I already named the index you can buy...\
> Dow Jones / Case Schiller NYC...

then Ann the dumbshit said:

>There is no Dow Jones / Case Shiller NYC index that you can buy on any exchange.
>You are an unbelievable liar.

Uh, uh, uh...
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/real-estate/residential/SandP-case-shiller-home-price-index.html

"You can trade CSI futures on the following U.S. cities:
Boston Los Angeles San Francisco Chicago Miami Washington, D.C Denver New York Las Vegas San Diego "

You dumb motherfucker you. You can't read.

AND, OF COURSE, LIC IS RIGHT THERE TO JUMP ON THE IDIOT BANDWAGON! NICE JOB, LIC!
You've shown yourself a genius once again.

LIC, 202 posts without a fact or brain... and counting...

urbandigs - I'm not out to impress anyone (unlike you) since I'm all about making money trading the markets. Some background on me - started my investment portfolio in 1991 with $80K, today worth in the seven figures - made my initial bets on casino and auto junk bonds in the early 1990s, gradually expanded to buying more distressed debt and eventually into distressed common stock. Best bet thus far was buying Bershire in the $2500/sh level in my IRA - so you'll see it's not only about "hourly trading" as you say. Once I had a high six figure trading portfolio I jumped into options trading where my portfolio has since moved into the mid seven figures. I've suffered severe losses along the way (probably lost more in some trades than you make in a year) but learned from my experiences. This along with luck,leverage, research, instinct and intestinal fortitude have all played a part in growing my portfolio.

Best I leave it there chump but I will be watching VNO...

well at least you got the chump in there.

Its a good background and if weren't for huge losses, unfortunately, you wouldn't have learned the most important aspects of trading. After all, its from mistakes that we learn/adapt and fine tune.

Me, I had nothing coming out of college and had to borrow 12,000 from my grandmother to start trading, as my father wouldnt fund me after doling out 100K on my college education. Cant say I blame the guy, but a 40K a year 9-5 job just wasnt what I wanted.

Turned 12K into 70K from June 1998 to JAN 1999. Turned 70K into 1.1M in 1999. Of course that was an insane year and Tradescape was a NASDAQ equities focused trading institution at the time. Of course I really made about 2.2M trading but since I wasnt trading my own money (had a company account in which they raped you on ticket charges and paid out 50% of profits), but at least I wasnt risking my own capital at the time with $2M of buying power and only about 35K in the account on JAN 1999 after taking half of it from previous year gains. So, after paying a lovely $375K check to uncle sam in 2000, I made the big mistake of my trading career and took all my funds out of my account and into a Schwab account where I bought the stocks that I was told by everyone would never go down that much: AOL, SUNW, INTC, CSCO, QCOM, all tech, all the time. After all, it was tech where the money was and the feeling at the time for this young, stupid 23 yr old trader was that good times would always last; maybe not as great as late 1999, but certainly not what ended up happening.

Its strange to never have a negative trading year, especially in 2001-2004, but see 65% of my capital leftover whither away. My devil was FOUNDRY NETWORKS, FDRY. That stock alone took about $185,000 from me. Live & learn. Luckily, I took what was left and bought a condo in NOV 2001, which I sold JULY 2006 for 93% gain or so. Still a bit crazy to me how much prices went up in such a short time.

The tough times were priceless learning experiences and Im grateful for them, even though it brought a lot of pain. I know guys who made $2M in 2000 and couldnt pay their taxes in April 2001. You get used to a lifestyle when money is pouring in, and the hardest part is leaving it, mentally. Thats why you make stupid decisions when your 50% out of the money, which should never happened in the first place.

If it wasnt for this experience, I wouldnt be where I am at today. Although I havent traded since 2004, I must admit, I signed up and opened the account last week for the first time in 4 years. This market is a trading market, and I think we have another year left until we enter the slow down times again.

I'll throw out my thinking, even though it wasnt asked for. I think this rally has legs, and VNO very well may have some nice upside if the rally comes in. But its a shorting opp. Come end of SEPT, I intend to be fairly short. Right now, I sold 50% of my longs and looking to unload the rest and get short. SKF at 90 to me might be a good entry point for shorts. Im sure it will feel like all is fine & dandy if we do get to 12,500-12,700. I know if we get to 12,100 or so, shorts will power the rally for another few weeks, scrambling to cover. Give me a VIX of 16-17, and another 400-500 DOW points and I think Ill be flat, waiting to open new shorts. None of this is advice of course, and as things unfold the play may change, but thats what Im thinking. We have NOT seen a bottom, and I think we will fall hard when we realize the severity of some of these macro forces. For now, let stocks cheer $115 oil, which is better than $145 oil, but is nothing to cheer about.

Dollar rally will continue, but is a head fake and I expect precious metals to be a great new buying opp soon; I actually think the fed will cut rates before they raise them next. Not sure how many are in that camp. And to think about it, we sorely needed some dollar cushion and a rally if the fed can get away with more cuts. Makes one wonder about orchestration of such dynamics. Give us $1.45 to EUR, $95/oil and $800 gold, and all of a sudden the fed can cut if they need to. And I think they will need to.

Just my two cents that I dont expect anyone to take as trading advice. I must protect my chump image.

(crickets from Anne and LIC, once again)

Nice jobs guys.... let me know when you get your feet out of each other's mouths...

eww

MAVEN - Still checking VNO? Remember this comment: "Come end of SEPT, I intend to be fairly short. We have NOT seen a bottom, and I think we will fall hard when we realize the severity of some of these macro forces"

...from 7 weeks ago?

I like conversations with you Maven, but I would like them much better if you threw out some constructive talk about the markets (being you are a trader and all) rather than criticize a SHORT VNO at $95-$98 call that I made when it went a few bucks above the range.

And for the record, I still think the fed will cut rates, and I think alot more people are in this camp now.

MAVEN!!! VNO at $65...This chump could have made you great money!

Come on Maven! You said you will keep your eye on VNO after calling me a chump for saying to short it at $98!

Hope you are still in business after the past few weeks! You dont follow my stock market guidance because I have no credibility, so I cure as hell hope you didnt follow those on CBNC who kept calling the bottom because as you know, here was my two cents 9 weeks ago:

"Come end of SEPT, I intend to be fairly short. We have NOT seen a bottom, and I think we will fall hard when we realize the severity of some of these macro forces."

Fact is, you never make calls and only come here to criticize others when in fact the call was SPOT ON!

maven maven maven!!!!!

HI MAVEN! VNO @ $54...HI there buddy! Hi! Hi! How you doin?

MAVEN 6 MONTHS AGO - "Best I leave it there chump but I will be watching VNO..."

VNO was at 100 then! Today at 38. I guess I am not a chump, huh?

thanks for the tip on VNO

clintonB- very welcome! That was a nice one!!

Thank MAVEN, the professional trader, as well. We need more professionals like that to add to the executives and traders that took the positions for the banks these past few years. JOB WELL DONE!

UD, thanks for dragging this one out. LOVE the OP:

joepa: "Original poster: innocent question about the market/a specific apartment/other real estate question

"stevejhx: stevejhx: random link to article which discusses the recession/declining real estate market followed by misleading analysis of that article often taking numbers/comments out of context followed by some grossly inappropriate "wit," laughing/scoffing at anyone who ever thought that Manhattan was "immune" to a decline -- which, in fact, is no one

"stevejhx cohort: praising article and commentary as if it had never been said on this board before followed by own attempt at his/her own wit, scoffing all naysayers who dare deny the gospel of steve

"naive poster: questions comments/calculations from steve's original post and may (or may not) have actual gall to suggest steve's analysis is wrong or that the market may not be as bad as steve/cohort suggests

steve and/or band of steve cohorts and/or steve alias': insulting commentary toward naive poster followed by a recitation of meaningless figures and citations to additional voluminous articles to demonstrate how naive poster is stupid

"naive poster: shocked at how misleading steve's comments/calculations are, naively gets sucked into lengthy debate with steve/cohorts which there is no way he will win and (even if he clearly does) steve/cohorts will merely dismiss and further scoff

"naive poster becomes frustrated - point of original post lost - board rendered useless"

No wonder we haven't heard a lot from joepa recently: I was right.

Where's spunky?

Hey, remember how Steve saved himself from buying a NYC home and used that money in the stock market when he lost 95% of his money?
Remember how Steve, the expert renter, was too afraid to negotiate a reduction in his rent at his last renewal?
Remember when he wrote to CNBC to get Jim Cramer off the air 6 months ago and then took credit when Cramer was off for one day. And how he recently wrote to the New York Times to get rid of Andrew Ross Sorkin?
Remember when Steve was fired from his job as a Bank of America auditor and before that as an auditor at Price Waterhouse?
Remember Steve's alcohol problem?

Ah, samporter, if only that stuff were true!

samporter, you also forgot about Steve's guacamole problem.

:/

Yes, how could I forget the guacamole problem. This message board is all steve, all the time. Did you know he also talks about the PhD program at Columbia ... that he DIDN'T get a PhD from?

Seeing a pattern?

And sometimes I talk about property in Queens AND I DON'T EVEN LIVE IN QUEENS!

Seeing a pattern?

stevejhx has been here since DEC 2007/JAN 2008 I believe and was one of the people that 'got it' in terms of severity and nature of this crisis.

Hard to go against a voice that used this forum to warn people of the problems that lay ahead from a very early point

Didn't steve say that renting is always better than buying? How much credibility does someone have who never sees that there will be a good opportunity in real estate. Steve will never be telling people to buy if he is to be consistent with his absolute statements historically. Do you recall when he said that over the long-term real estate declines in value? And with his money - to your VNU, he's recommending China and Brazil.
It really sucks to be a liar and a cry-baby, because at some point people stop listening then you have to find new people to listen to you. ... to think he complains about two members of the Trump family. Maybe he should write to NBC and have The Apprentice canceled and replaced with some bad comedy sketches.

come on people.. this was the first beautiful weekend in the city (especially today), and having got back after spending the whole day out and about enjoying the weather,what do I see - the usual suspects posting ALL DAY LONG... There is a life outside streeteasy - enjoy it..

jsmith, really get off your high post. I spent over six hours today outside. But I had to do laundry, and we're still painting the apartment (actually we're at a point where I need the hubbies help because I can't tape and reach the high areas).

Who gives a rats who posts when and how often? Kind of strange when others care about such things.

??? Who said I was referring to you?? Getting a little defensive, there..

"Didn't steve say that renting is always better than buying?"

If you look at buying owner-occupied residential real estate as an "investment," that is true. It is capitalized rent.

"Do you recall when he said that over the long-term real estate declines in value?"

Never said such a thing.

"And with his money - to your VNU, he's recommending China and Brazil."

I'm not recommending anything - you are discussing recommendations from over a year ago, when they were good recommendations.

So - PLEASE! Rather than attacking me personally, address my points.

And thanks, UD.

Steve you have to admit that you do make yourself subject to discussion when you introduce so many personal details. Also, from what I've read, you often only back down on a position when you are attacked personally after the evidence is laid out. It is like you finally buckle when you can't handle the pressure personally.

But your point above about "buying owner-occupied residential real estate as an 'investment,'" I was one of the many many who read that long long discussion about renting being better than buying, and you left no room for argument that you position was anything but absolute. You later recanted on the "always" position. And your whole argument started with a fundamental premise that the individual should be placing his "investment" into the S&P. Over the past 10 years, that hasn't worked too well despite your belief in the equity markets. Rents (costs to renters) have gone up, real estate - if someone would have locked in in 1999 he would be doing well (benefit to owners) and stocks (the alternative for the investment) have done horribly.

I do also recall you stating that real estate declines over the long-term. You later said that long-term could be a single decade, which is not quite the definition of long-term - the US Government issues long-term bonds at 30 years. I'm sure with just a bit of digging (I don't have the time this morning, maybe later) I'll find where you said it.

Lastly, just to address your point on China and Brazil - I didn't recall until now that you were proponent of investing in those markets, and you were a proponent of investing using margin and/or buying equity instruments that were levered in those markets. That's pure short-term speculation, so no, those could never have been good recommendations nor would they be suitable as an alternative for anyone buying a home or anyone just looking to place money into equities generally. Anyone at my firm (think big WS brokerage) would lose his job recommending that as a "suitable" investment.

lintinin - sorry that that's your impression, but none of it is true.

Except China, Brazil - and what is a suitable investment for one person isn't for another. Do you disagree with that, or all all investments the same?

Nonetheless, since this is about real estate - I NEVER said it declines in value over the long-term (find it) and the thread you are discussing clearly says "investment" - owner-occupied residential real estate is NOT an investment; it is a capitalized expense. Over long periods of time the stock market ALWAYS outperforms it. If you pick and choose your dates you can get whatever result you want, but over the long-term, that is always true.

Allow me, lintintin

I said that steve, the rental expert, was unable to negotiate a lease reduction, "Remember how Steve, the expert renter, was too afraid to negotiate a reduction in his rent at his last renewal?" and Steve said "Ah, samporter, if only that stuff were true!"

5 weeks ago: iceman, personally I'd show them the list of what's available, tell them that there are plenty of no-fee apartments (nybits.com), and walk. That is what I was going to do in September when it was time for me to sign another year's lease, but the market & everything was so crazy, and the rent increase so negligible, that I decided to stay put. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9275-will-rents-really-go-up-in-april

see that, Steve had a rent increase. Yet he denies what he's admitted to in the past.

Wait there's more

No, samporter, my rent went up a grand total of $90 a month, to just over $4,600. Had I moved it would have cost me thousands of dollars in expenses and effort for a reduction that wouldn't have paid for itself for years. If my lease were up one month later I would have succeeded in renegotiating it.

I didn't deny anything that was true. You said, "was too afraid to negotiate a reduction in his rent at his last renewal." As stated, not true.

Just like nothing else of what you said is true.

Too bad you have to resort to attacking me (like so many) instead of sticking to the facts.

Steve also said just above, "Nonetheless, since this is about real estate - I NEVER said it declines in value over the long-term (find it)"

Well, someone pulled up that one a couple days ago, steve said, "otherperson:"He also suggested that better returns could be achieved in the equity markets"
stevejhx: Over time that is true.
otherperson: "and stated that it was lower risk to do so."
stevejhx: Never. I said the risk was the same, but manifests itself differently: volatility in the equity markets, long-term downward trend in real estate."

yes, you read it right, steve talks about the "long-term downward trend in real estate"
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5481-write-to-cnbc

and continues,
"otherperson:"There is no long term downward trend in real estate."

stevejhx: Yes there is and has been on multiple occasions. The 1970's, early 1980's are a prime case of real estate declining in value for 10 years on a nominal basis.

otherperson: "Even you have never made such a postulation and frankly, it isn't mathematically possible."

stevejhx: Look at the Case-Shiller index.

otherperson: "There may be a prolonged medium term downturn but to say investing or purchasing real estate will over any long-term period be a loser isn't true and can't be true."

stevejhx: It can be true."

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5481-write-to-cnbc

you actually had an rent increase this year? d'oh!

$4600 isn't bad for a family rental

Real Estate does increase over time, even if you have a sweet $4600 rental for your family. I bet that place was only $2300 10 years ago and that a family of 3 or 4 could have rented a place for $1000 20 years ago. That's going up. It has to, incomes go up, GDP goes up, alternative uses for land increase, etc. etc. A long term decline in real estate just isn't possible even if it would go down for maybe a 10 year period.

bp - it was in August.

samporter - read again what I wrote. It's all very consistent.

over the long-term (find it) --> The 1970's, early 1980's are a prime case of real estate declining in value for 10 years on a nominal basis.

And then it went right back up. Over time, real estate prices increase in tandem with wages. As long as wages rise, property prices will rise. There has not in recent times been a long-term decline in wages, but were it to occur, then property prices would fall, as well. For a historical example you'd have to go back to the 19th century, however.

Always a way to weasel out of what you've said when you reconsider that you were wrong.
Change a couple of of adjectives or adverbs, say you didn't mean it quite like you said it, narrow your definitions or expand on others.
Your consistency as a pathological liar and attention seeker is amazing.

You have become more of a victim of joepa than of stevejx

"Your consistency as a pathological liar and attention seeker is amazing."

An "attention seeker" on a board read by maybe 500 people? Please.

Sorry, sammy, I've been consistent.

There are two unapologetic attention seekers on streeteasy.
First, Urbandigs. He operates under a sheen of credibility because he reposts the day's Bloomberg and IDD content and that looks intellectual. Occasionally he posts a semi-thoughtful piece on renovating your kitchen, or why a piece of real estate is expensive and that you should bid lower. You don't need to be in the real estate business to do that - Bob Vila can do the former and kylewest can do the latter.

Then, Stevejhx. He posts on a board read by maybe 500 people. He also does standup comedy and posts the video link on streeteasy. He writes to the New York Times to get reporters fired because he disagrees with them. He tells you where he lives, how much he pays, what his mother does, about his dates, about his conversations at the gym.

And you seem to read everything I write, Ervair.

ervair is a bitter broker
forget about RE that's dead

now thats funny