Are we having fun yet? (corona)

I think it's pretty obvious to most people on this forum what prime New York City means. And I don't mean that to denigrate more moderate parts of Brooklyn/Queens, which is where some of my family hails from. Certainly prime neighborhoods is always going to be quite subjective.

Let's just say Manhattan up to 125th, and any Brooklyn or Queens neighborhoods rebny member brokers have the majority of listings in.

I'm adding a PS, whatever price a board is willing to accept and as we know boards can be slow to recognize a new reality.

This from NY Times -

During the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong, for instance, one patient infected many others living in the same complex of apartment buildings, resulting in 19 dead. The spread of infection is thought to have been caused by airborne viral particles that were blown throughout the complex from the initial patient’s apartment unit. As a result of greater viral exposure, neighbors who lived in the same building were not only more frequently infected but also more likely to die. By contrast, more distant neighbors, even when infected, suffered less.

They're talking about viral load = severity of illness. It's time to use windows only for ventilation.

Thanks stache

Does 432 Park even have operable windows?

“Brokers have to be optimistic,” said Craig Gilbert, an appraiser active in the county. “Their job is to sell. And right now they are selling a refrigerator to an eskimo.”

Ruh roh

https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/01/april-is-when-the-big-problems-kick-in-la-residential-firms-face-reckoning/

I can buy an apt cash but what's the point now?

I'm optimistically hoping to be able to eat at a restaurant again in late fall of 2021. So given no restaurants, no entertainment, no going out, why pay $1,800/sq ft? What about $1000/sq ft lower Manhattan? Maybe that's worth it still. But maybe even that's too much? The point of living in Manhattan is to be able to go out and do things.

What many don't understand is we are most likely in the 3rd inning. Odds are high this comes back in the fall more aggressively than this round (based on prior pandemics) but we should be more prepared by then. Additionally, no one is even sure it fully goes away in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer time. As far as the US and NYC are concerned, we are near the bottom of the list in terms of how we are dealing with it so far.

US GDP was ~10T in 2000 and ~20T in 2019. My gut is that we won't hit 20T again for at least 5 yrs, would not laugh if someone said 2030. I think a mild 30% manhattan RE decline would be a sign that things went incredibly well & we did an excellent job fighting it.

But no one knows now, and also, for the 1st time, I'm really hoping I'm proven wrong and everyone is laughing at me soon!!!

stache,
At one point 61 West 9th St had a part time doorman and no intercom system other than the simple call-up from the doorman station.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/opinion/coronavirus-buildings.html

One positive note about NYC: I am finding it fairly easy to socially distance myself on a walk, while I am hearing that in suburbs around the country that
is difficult to do as all the suburbanites used to driving everywhere now have no where to go, so they’ve started walking- in crowds!

Social distancing on transient behavior like walking in public, standing in line,makes no sense. If you get into an elevator and the previous occupant sneezed like crazy , then maybe there is a viral load in the air to fear.
Even if you exchange words with an infected person, odds are you will not get enough of a viral load to be infected. They have done a number of studies on the flu to verify that. Its a bit crazy how we try to manage our panic and think we are doing something and are not.

Two pieces of hopeful news, please discuss:
(1) I read that they will be rolling out an antibody test soon so that individuals can know whether they have already gotten covid-19 and made it to the otherside such that they can freely circulate;
(2) They believe a percentage of ICU cases might be the result of “cytokine storm,” an immune system over reaction for which there are immune system relaxing medicines already FDA approved.

Mcr, Thank you. Usually I like to look at positive side of things. Unfortunately, next two weeks are going to be very hard for the country as per IHME death projections. What I do believe in is American resolve, ingenuity and system of private sector incentives. Every one in the country is on it - clearly a few weeks late in retrospect. Your point #1 will be very helpful in a month when we are hopefully trying to get back to work.
Without bringing politics into it, did I mention that I am starting to believe that China Communist Party understated the Covid data by at least 10x. The whole Western world was too trusting of the data supplied and missed the severity of it and is suffering. We know DaVenizia tried to warn us on this board about how bad it could get.

I certainly underestimated the severity even 2.5 weeks back when the shut down was announced after De Blasio’s last trip to the gym. But now have been educated by IHME numbers. Positive in me hopes that we only hit the lower confidence interval numbers.

IHME link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

@300_mercer: I believe nobody in the various USG task forces (intelligence, health, homeland security) believed numbers from Beijing. In other words, we as a country knew the risks and we embraced them.

Is that true about France, Spain and Italy as well?

Um, France, Italy and Spain don’t exactly have the resources that we do in any of the relevant areas. Aside from that, I have no idea, but none of those countries are known for being ahead of the curve in any area.

I don't think China will be able to fake for too long whether they have actually re-opened factories and resumed production if various goods. Or be able to hide whether that has resulted in a serious second wave. Or am I missing something?

30, From what I know the Chinese factories just do not have orders. It is unclear if there is a second wave.
Mcr, Without getting into a political debate but my keeping in mind that DC is mostly democratic (I have no connections there), was the information available to senate and house members on appropriate sub-committees?

300_mercer: I said “we.” Welcome to Amerca.

Mcr, Sorry, it was a genuine question as I have no clue about inside functioning of govt. Didn’t mean it for to be taken in a different manner.

@300_mercer: No worries. No movie was more disappointing for me to view as an adult than “The Wizard of Oz.” As much as we like to think anybody could have handled anything better, I am in the camp of those who believe JFK just got lucky with the Cuban Missile Crisis, although I’m not going to lie- I prefer the lore of brilliant diplomacy/chess-playing.

Mcr,
Appreciate your thoughtfulness.

What matters the most is that I do believe that every one in this country is doing the best they can to fight it now and additional results beyond better availability of diagnostic testing will start to show in a couple of weeks - unfortunately a couple of very difficult weeks.

@300_mercer: Agree.

Re: China - given their track record of deception both about historical epidemics (e.g., SARS) and COVID-19, I'm not sure why anyone would take China's numbers at face value. At the very least, their numbers look suspiciously low given their population size and density. History says that the Chinese government will attempt to conceal any data that they don't like.

Setting China aside, cross-country comparisons of data are actually a lot more difficult than people realize. This is because countries don't have standardized methodologies for these metrics, so it's hard to ensure an apples to apples comparison. For example, Italy is apparently testing every single person that dies now for COVID-19, which may explain why their CFR is so much higher than everyone else. Most other countries only test if they think COVID-19 was the actual cause of death.

Thoth, It is very tricky to compare death rates even within the same country as the death rate as a percentage of population (rather than corona cases) depends on where the infection started (nursing home), if it spread via hospital (some cases of that in Italy), population density, tourism etc. That is why it is such a beast to tackle.

We need meds, then vaccine.... As you pointed out 300, there are a lot of brilliant people collaborating to get a handle on this.

It's also just so curious how so many people could walk around with just mild symptoms, others get what they describe as the worst flu they've ever had, and others are so sick they're making peace with their maker thinking this is it. I personally know two people that experience last two I listed. The fact that so many people are walking around spreading this unknowingly it's another difficult component to tackle.

@theburkhardtgroup

There is nothing surprising at all that some people get mild symptoms and others severe. This is pretty common in many infectious dz. If you want to make a list of the reasons why this happens, you could fill up many textbooks.

--

To the others discussing China, I say this as a practicing MD, many doctors in California, most VCs in SV, and many biz owners knew this would be serious. It is one thing to complain that the numbers are fake (they are fake almost everywhere due to lack of testing), but in this case, you cannot just get away with saying that the Chinese govt lied and therefore we did not know.

We have satellite imagery of that area & many people in that area were sharing their experiences (illegally) on social media as well. It was obvious that they had the most massive shutdown in the history of humans. If a person cannot understand the magnitude of that, what other data do you need? Add to this the fact that we already knew that odds of a pandemic have been increasing daily for over a century, and you don't actually need much granular data. When people storm out of a building and you see smoke, you shouldn't need a headcount to see if you should run.

--

Finally, I would argue that mortality rates don't mean much bc they are dependent on the denominator which we don't know. The way hospitals are dealing is just looking at the doubling rates of hospitalizations & ICU visits. Btw those are trending in the right direction now for over a week! I think next week some hospitals may start seeing a reversal, more the week after. We started at a doubling rate of every 2-3 days, and now at a rate closer to every 7 days, hopefully soon to reverse.

Also, the mortality rates presume there is oxygen, hospital beds, and vents. Obviously once those run out, the "rates" spike up 20-50x of the normal (both bc Covid pts don't have access to oxygen and other patients don't have access to normal healthcare as well). Goal is to not let that happen.

It's a good feeling to finally see this slowing down, so at least we know our current plan is working even though it is not severe as the Chinese shutdown.

@anon I'm not sure if you are addressing me, but I'm not saying no one could have known how bad this was because the Chinese data was fake. I'm saying that I don't take anything the Chinese govt reports at face value if it could potentially put them in a bad light. If anything, that should reinforce the fact that the situation was and is likely far worse than what's being reported. One thing that does frustrate me is that I see so many media outlets reporting China's numbers at face value and using that to compare how other countries are doing without any disclaimers. This is utterly naive and bad reporting.

What's odd to me is that with all this activity, I don't hear of any government running serological tests on a random sample of the population for COVID-19. This would finally establish a denominator for all of these metrics.

@300: To your question: "was the information available to senate and house members on appropriate sub-committees"

Perhaps you could ask Richard Burr (R-NC), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), and James Inhofe (R-OK), as they all appear to have sold off significant parts of their stock portfolios before the markets tanked. The SEC, DOJ, and Ethics Committee all have concerns, and may provide an answer.

I read that viral load could play a part as to who gets mild symptoms and who gets severe symptoms.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/is-viral-load-key-to-understanding-coronaviruss-severity.html

That's exactly it, streetsmart. Plus a low viral load effects @ 20 years old vs low viral load for a 60 year old would be more devastating. There's a great chart in the original thread on this topic re/lung capacity by age. Infants have the best lung capacity.
Spoke to my super today. In my building every hvac unit has a vent going directly outside for air intake. However the halls to the best of my knowledge are served by giant fans from the roof so that would be shared air. I'm still trying to figure out chiller distribution. I know the apt next to me gets her coolant after me but I don't know where mine comes from. Difficult to discuss with the super when I'm in a mask and he's antsy.

PS I'm reading that China has 2M cellphone numbers suddenly not in use. I will post a link if I see one.

In China, many people have 2~3 sim cards, even the iPhone needs to develop a dual sim version in China.

Actually this ordeal started from people not believing the need of China to lock down cities since 1/26, and not believing the need of wearing masks there. And now, what good can it be to not believe they almost vacate all temporary hospitals there?

stache,
Just as a counterpoint, China has cell phone farms which have been used to boost likes on social media and other purposes so it's possible that 2 million cell phones represent zero people (or substantially less than 2 million).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/click-farms-internet-china-154440209.html

@stache It's not 2M, it's more like 21MM. I'm not sure that means anything since I'm sure a lot of people there lost their jobs in the shutdown. https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200327/business/chinese-operators-lose-21-million-subscribers

But it just goes to show no one really knows what is going on in China right now. All I know is their reported COVID-19 data now looks like a joke when you compare that against every other country.

I think urn count tells more of real story in China and WHO is clearly China’s stooge.

"The city’s largest residential brokerages are facing a near-total market shutdown":

https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/03/layoffs-and-furloughs-hit-nycs-biggest-resi-firms/

Aaron, Re Senators, let us see what the SEC investigation says.

Senators knew the risks of the pandemic, but the risk was so widely known (again, I used the term “we,” which means everyone was on full constructive notice) that it is unlikely their trades ran afoul of SEC regs.

Both of the commercial banks where I have accounts now only have drive through service. Otherwise its internet or ATM. I'm very happy I took out an additional 5k cash at TD. It was within minutes of the branches closing walk in service unless by appointment.

My friend in Beijing says: "When I go in [to work, which he doesn't every day, since he is often WFH] I am temp checked, ID checked (I have to be on a list, updated daily) in the lobby of my [work] building. Temp checked at cafeteria. Coming back to apartment, temp checked at front entrance. Going to park, temp checked at entrance. Shopping malls, temp checked. And everyone is face masked!"

stache,
Who has drive through bank service in Manhattan? I may have to change banks.

Some good info
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So if China had been doing all these strict temperature checks everywhere in the past 2~3 months, why are we still suspecting they should have more cases and deaths than those who still go out and party and don't put on masks?

Olshan report had two sales again, including one that looks like a little bidding war broke out. Buyer is from Tokyo, so at least one foreign fool is still being separated from his money. Maybe he'll buy Rockefeller Center while he's here?

Japan was probably covering up the real numbers there. Cases jump after they postpone the Olympic.

George,
Same number for Brooklyn
https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/06/brooklyns-luxury-resi-market-only-saw-2-deals-signed-last-week/

My friend at the national lender said their weekly volume for both purchase and refi mortgages fell off a cliff last week - March started with a boom and ended with a trickle.

Also I've been meaning to comment on this NYT article from the weekend:

"With much of the city cooped up indoors for at least the next several weeks, there is some hope of buyer demand surging when the mandate is lifted, Ms. Ramirez said. 'I thought I had a great apartment before, but I’m telling you, now I’m looking for what I can change.'”

I love how the brokers look to only the demand side. What about supply? What if suddenly people wake up and decide that it sucks being confined in a tiny apartment in a building with 1000 coughing people in a petri-dish city with inadequate healthcare, high taxes, poor leadership, homelessness, drug use in parks, expensive schools, gridlocked traffic, interminable construction noise at all hours, and the risk of being shut down again in the fall when Covid-19 returns... and start looking to sell to move to Tennessee, Texas, or Wyoming? it's entirely possible that more people decide to sell than buy. Given the excess inventory, unless many more people decide to buy than sell, prices will fall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/realestate/coronavirus-spring-buying-season-new-york.html

@george those people will move out.

I don't necessarily interpret pent-up demand to mean prices will rise. However if you're a real estate broker, and have completely lost your source of income to support yourself and your family, you hope for the best. And if you're a buyer or seller, you similarly hope for the best.

Prices will certainly go down, and then prices will go up..... How far they will reset, we'll see. Along with all the industries terribly affected by this pandemic, I look forward to real estate coming back as well. And I hope it's sooner than later for all those adversely affected by this.

Keith
TBG

I've noted before that one thing sure to put a major crimp in NYC Real Estate is a rise in crime. It was signalled several months ago by Cuomo doubling the size of the Transit Police Force, the reaction to that of the FTP protests, and a number of other things I've posted about (like the Morningside Park stabbing).

I'm hearing some disturbing anecdotes from friends/acquaintances about people defecating on the street out in front of the Flatiron Building, junkies shooting up in many parks, friend of a friend laying in the hospital with his jaw wired shut after being jumped, multiple muggings/stabbings daily in the LES, and the general disolution of the social contract, which appears to be ignored by those reporting to the public (NYPD, Mayor, MSM).

If you are going outside, please be careful and mind your circumstances and surroundings even if you are in places which you are used to being safe and it is during daylight hours. As a friend noted "Act like it's the 1980s and you're in the hood."

I have gone for solitary walks in greenwich and west village and there is no one on the streets. Some homeless getting together on places like Christopher street 7 subway stop but in no way threatening. No idea at late hours.

Where I could actually see demand rising is the wealthy suburbs with big houses on big lots. The virus is as good a reason to move to the suburbs as Gen X and Millennials have ever had, at least if you believe it might come back, or other viruses could follow it. If you're going to be quarantined, have a big house and big property. Some of the suburbs like backcountry Greenwich have already adjusted their prices dramatically lower in a way that Manhattan hasn't. A high earner could Uber it into the city every day just for the tax savings. ($1M/year earnings * 6% tax savings = 60K, divided by 150 days in the office = $400/office workday tax savings.)

Here's an example - Patrick Ewing's house - sold for $2.65M, just north of the GWB in NJ: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/174-Vaccaro-Dr_Cresskill_NJ_07626_M68919-31223

https://youtu.be/24PcF7LDQ7M

"you know what a black dentist would have to do to move into my neighborhood? Invent teeth!" That's a great bit that never gets old...

You'll find people moving to the suburbs in good and bad times. But unless you're going rooftop to rooftop in your private helicopter, commuting stinks. But it is a sacrifice some people are willing to make...

I think if only one of the spouses works in the city and is fine with mostly never seeing the young kids during the week, suburbs are a great choice and have been for a long time. Many people still make that choice. Me - I liked my commute under 30 minutes when I worked corporate job.

I'd say at least 50% of my clients have a country house or beach house. Prices have really come down nicely in the Hamptons and there's a ton of inventory. Another client whom we just sold their apartment for, called me for a referral for a broker in the Catskills. Purchased a home after a long weekend of looking. So that's another option as well that's always been there.

Catskill home is a second home, they just finished renovating a loft in NoHo.

George talks about suburbs being cheaper as if it is a big secret. That has been the case for a long time and well known trade off people made between cost, commuting time and space. There are always Sutton place and Turtle bay if you want it 30 percent cheaper compared to prime neighborhoods in the city.

@30, I think the UWS is now sketchier too. Not that I have any reason to run out to the grocery store at ten at night, but I certainly wouldn't. Part of the problem is that many of the cops are sick. Central Park is about the only place I've seen them out in force.

>> $1M/year earnings * 6% tax savings = 60K, divided by 150 days in the office = $400/office workday tax savings.

Said high earner is paid $500/hour, so at a 2 hour commute per day for 150 days, that’s $150K (pre-tax) of their time. The percentages work out the same regardless of income.

It’s really about personal living preferences at the end of the day, IMO.

My point is that the prices of big homes in suburbs have been hurt much more than the city. We talk in the city about prices down 10-15% since the peak as if it's a catastrophe, but some suburbs are down 30-50%, especially homes over 4000 square feet. There are already genuine bargains in the suburbs, while Manhattan remains quite high-priced even in Turtle Bay. Covid will help to even this out by making the suburbs relatively more attractive, especially those with more spacing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealthy-greenwich-home-sellers-give-in-to-market-realities-11555348468

A combination of increased crime, rising taxes, depressed/regulated rents, corporation not feeling the same need to be in the city, some owners abandoning properties because they no longer made economic sense, infrastructure crumbling.... That's what led to the "white flight" of the 1960s/70s.

Not saying that's coming next week but Rome didn't burn in a day. I've been saying for a while that I didn't think it would take that much to take certain newcomers who had moved into areas with blinders on and knock them off the concept that they were "real New Yorkers" after things "got real." I guess we will see soon enough how dug in some of these people really are.

"even in Turtle Bay" - Ouch. Maybe it's because I'm from Detroit, but I just don't get why everyone doesn't love Turtle Bay like I do.

A lack of green space and not enough of a neighborhood feel. Too many UN people. I discovered it the hard way with one of my investments which didn’t make enough money commensurate with my effort. I will never touch midtown east as it is not a place where non UN people want to live as their first choice.

I agree with you about greater Turtle Bay, but I still love Beekman Place. It is a genuine neighborhood where people know and talk to each other with restaurants, diners, little specialty shops, etc on 1st Ave right around the corner where everyone knows your name.

For example 2nd Avenue 42 and up is very commercial. First avenue above UN and Sutton place is better but too far from public transportation and a lot of stuffy coops for what the neighborhood offers. I like the prices though.

Our posts crossed. Too many old ladies there - direct result of stuffy coops. It does not meet cool vibrant neighborhood standard but I like the place bar and Books if it is still there. Restaurant scene is a little dull by NY standard.

St James Place is a perfect example of decline of neighborhood. Very desirable 20 years back but west side park changed everything.

St James Tower.

"Too many old ladies there" - I cannot argue that the average age is not quite high, and the fact that the bulk of listings in the neighborhood are estate sales really hammers that point home. Finally, as someone rapidly approaching that status myself, I have to fully concede your point. All of our downtown friends are particularly mean about our preferred neighborhood.

I've personally always loved the Beekman area. However, a casual observation of the market there over the years; doesn't go up as much in bull markets, falls more significantly in Bear markets.

The buyers that was I've assisted in Beekman over the years, were more interested in the quality of life than the potential financial positives and negatives.

I love all the old ladies in Beekman and Sutton, some look like they stepped out of an Edith Wharton novel! I remember doing an open house for a few weeks in the neighborhood, and many would stop by in their ancient mink coats on the arm of their granddaughter or grandson.

Did I mention that prices are great and it is quiet!!

@30 I remember the New York of the late 60s, 70s- I moved to the lower East side (633 East 6th Street) in 1982. Manhattan and Brooklyn were different worlds back then, you can draw no comparisons to what we've seen for the last 20+ years. And quite frankly I liked the New York of the 70s and 80s! I'm not saying that this coronavirus isn't going to have an impact and or potentially reshape New York . But when you start talking about the days of 'white flight', I think you're way off base.

What happens in Bushwick and Bed-Stuy, that's a bit more up in the air. Do hipster millennials vacate those neighborhoods they've helped change for better or worse? Or do they dig their heels in because that's their home and community? I think they dig their heels in.

The bottom line is we are going to get through this pandemic and life will move forward. Some will move out, however I think most will stay. This will end.

Anyway I hope I'm right and you're wrong!

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

30, that's just it. When Bethpage abruptly closed their Manhattan branch, it wasn't until I posted a negative review on Yelp that someone "reached out" to me and figured my best option was a branch still open by appt. about a 15 minute walk from some train station somewhere on Long Island. That's when I started transferring $ to TD, and now THEY are also doing drive through only branches. The system is falling apart.
I think the next urban buyer will be young 20's/30's "I won't get sick" types who will want some kind of open space either balcony or patio with in unit w/d.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/coronavirus-relief-mortgage-forbearance-requests-jump-nearly-2000percent.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-sees-more-burglaries-of-businesses-under-coronavirus-emergency-measures-11586008801

https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/545c13293d55dcd5e420dae5ea260f0d43f0f2b69060de7a8ac684d9439f3b27

50% death rate in Manhattan I think because the testing criteria is so strict. Plus they are doing mass burials on Hart Island.

Typo 5% I miscalculated but I still think the death rate is skewed high because of the lack of testing kits.

@stache: As you probably know, there's a few other reasons why the death rate is skewed, including trying to determine whether someone died OF corona vs. died WITH corona.

With the drop in mortgage applications recently, it seems that non-conforming rates are coming down again. Not sure it will make much difference.

New mortgage applications supposedly down 33% YOY and refis down 19% YOY.

Not to state the obvious, but low rates don't help when you don't have income. Then you have articles like this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-economy-could-burst-america-s-big-city-rent-bubble-n1179581

For a total distraction and going back to the “fun”world of real estate watched Five Flights Up with Morgan Freeman, Diane Keaton and Cynthia Nixon. Highly recommend

Great cast, and never heard of it. I'll add it to our list!
Just started Fosse/Verdon, we're watching on Hulu. Excellent! Though a bit stressful watching the maestro in action. Wife's a dancer, so it's like watching football for her!

Small glimmer of hope. if rents go down in a meaningful way that means owners could petition for lower property taxes as it is based on rent equivalent. Also since this disaster is affecting the entire world, no area has a real advantage over any other so that may help rebuilding in the long run.

Lol. Or maybe people could actually afford a decent home without crushing debt? Or moving somewhere that requires a mega-commute and negatively impacts family life?

I'm also a (itty bitty) landlord, for what it is worth.

stache,
Yes and no. Owners could get lower assessed values, but since tax rates are backed into by dividing the amount of money the City wishes to collect by the total assessments the tax rate will just increase in proportion to the decrease in assessments.

Cool graphic on jobless claims.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lenkiefer/status/1245702858449784832

Ok I am nerding out about this. Spoke to super again. Even though each apt hvac gets air flow from direct outside vent in my building, the same water is constantly being recirculated/shared by all units. It comes up from chiller in basement into each hvac then goes back down to the basement where it is all mixed together as it is recooled by the chiller, then sent back upstairs. This was the problem with Legionaire's except the bird poop was a different vector. I think having individual air intake reduces risk but I'm still skeptical about shared water as it is the ideal temperature level for covid.

Unless the chiller water is leaking from your individual unit, you're not at risk. You get it by inhaling the mist from a contaminated system. If the water is contaminated, but never leaves the confines of its plumbing while in your unit, you'll be fine. When you replace your individual units' filters each year (my building does it twice a year), check if there are any leaks. (and don't mistake condensation on the fins for leaks)

Stache. The water is sealed in a pipe (or tube, or hose, I don't know the technical HVAC term) is it not?

I believe that the Legionnaires infection vector is from a humidifier/AC system or leaks into an HVAC system. I don't believe your building passes the air through the water itself (like a "swamp cooler").

From a random website:

Air conditioning units without humidifiers have not been identified as sources of LDB. For a Legionnaires' disease outbreak to be linked directly with the HVAC system, LDB-contaminated water must enter the system, be aerosolized, and be delivered to building occupants.

https://www.cesmechanical.com/ces-hvac-blog-home/how-to-maintain-a-hvac-system-for-legionella-control

My hvac has an overspill tray that whenever I have looked at it, is dry. So I guess the risk from this is minimal. However I plan on using the portable this summer and see how things pan out in my building.
On another note, here's a vid from CNN that shows how France "gets it" and how we could be handling things with better leadership. Starts at 3:30.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_JOLIfrZx0

So far not a single new Manhattan luxury deal in contract this week, per Streeteasy.

Hey George,
I couldn't find the thread so I'm just sticking it here:

I think this is how more serious/subtle kinksters do it:
https://streeteasy.com/building/60-west-68-street-new_york/5d

From today's NYT: "Cities boomed in the 1990s, after two decades of stagnation, lifted by new waves of immigration and vibrant economic growth that attracted newcomers.

"But by the mid-2010s, the growth slowed. Big cities had become expensive, with rents far out of the range of the middle-income American. The economy was changing too: Low-wage jobs, after adjusting for the local cost of living, paid about the same everywhere.

"Then the virus hit, sharpening questions of affordability and lifestyle. Some argue it could accelerate the trend that was already underway."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-moving-city-future.html

This is why, whatever pent up demand may exist once showings resume, it won't last. Prices simply can't keep going up.

Increasing taxes and most restaurants closing won't help either (David Chang posited 90% of restaurants aren't reopening).

Personally it's a huge plus for me that all these places I hated where people stood in line for hours to take selfies in "curated experiences" will be gone.

More than one captain of industry has noted this has taught them the don't need all this Real Estate. Ultra-expensive / overpriced office space (like over $100/SF in bullshit locations) is in trouble.

How is this for refusal to accept reality:
Last year April 1 through April 19 there were 483 price reductions in Manhattan properties.
This year? 86.

I spoke to my broker today. His Dad died of Nova in a nursing home March 3rd. He has a friend that runs that nursing home. The talk is they are trying to downplay the fact that everyone in nursing homes has nova for fear loved ones will take them home and make everyone sick, causing spikes around the entire country.