Corona 2020

The WHO says masks are *not* needed for healthy people except in clinical settings. People are feeling helpless, and a mask has psychological benefits if not a great actual benefit. Btw, N95s lose their effectiveness rather quickly and can't really be sterilized more than once. Again it might feel good to microwave the thing, but the health benefits are limited outside a clinical setting.

I was telling a friend earlier today that the mask guidance reminds me a lot of many of the things we implemented right after 9/11. As someone who was in the trenches of that crisis, I recall that much of what we were doing was an attempt to give people some comfort, even if it was false. We knew that something like 9/11 was coming (Osama Bin Ladeb was not shy in his threats or in other previous attacks that many Americans won’t even recall because they took place at US tragets overseas. We, meaning everyone in the trenches (Republicans and Democrats alike) were doing everything we could to prevent the attack that we knew was coming, but the challenge was insurmountable. When it happened despite all of our best efforts, we were terrified and it was impossible to make Americans feel safe because the fact of
the matter is that we knew we were very vulnerable. Nevertheless, we implemented a host of relatively ineffective measures to show that we were doing something in hopes it would avert the panic in lay people that we ourselves were feeling.

And further to George's point, we changed the talk track to "We are not going to let the terrorists beat us! We are going to go on living as normal" because we realized that was our only choice. There is no way to lock the country down from the terrorist threat and have a functioning economy. I suspect we are going to come to the same result with the pandemic, but not sure what the talk track will be because there simply is no good talk track to accompany the inevitable loss of life that will result from necessary resumption of economic activity.

George, I'm going to split an important hair with you here: The WHO says that, as there is a global shortage of PPE, masks should be reserved for clinical settings. But that's not the same as saying that masks aren't somewhat protective. We have authoritative sources saying that. And N95 masks are more protective than cloth masks -- that's why we give them to our doctors.

But if I'm going to ride the subway as part of my job, then I want to have the best protective gear that I can get in order to do that. If there's such a shortage of PPE that the scenario means I should stay inside my apartment, then I'll do that... that's what I'm doing now. But as the world changes, I'm not going to "go outside" just because of some or other authority's global calculus; I'm going to calculate risk, as best I can, for myself and my family.

9/11 is actually pretty good history here: Gov. Christie Todd Whitman told all those first responders it was safe to go Downtown, and we know from subsequent medical history that it wasn't at all... there was a straight line to Jon Stewart pleading for the Zadroga act.

Ali: check out the kn95 mask, we were able to purchase on-line. At least from what I read on the 3M website they seem to be very comparable if not the same as the n95 mask.

Ali, I have taken the subway recently a few times with my normal surgical mask. There were no more than 5-7 people in any subway car - all with masks. So, right now is probably safe. The real issue will be when the subway cars are somewhat full.

I think it's pretty obvious we need to invade Venezuela in response to COVID-19.

I have the best mask of them all: a functional immune system. It allows me to do things like ride a subway full of bums, use someone else's pen, and touch elevator buttons. Hmm... maybe the Hasidim have it right with Sabbath elevators.

That is indeed the right attitude if you do not have any high risk people in your household assuming other high risk people are already quarantining themselves. In addition, by now you can get a bed in the ICU in NYC if you needed one and there are indeed cases of non high risk individuals ending up in ICU.

@300_mercer - I have noted before that O come from a long line of Social Darwinists. I have struggled against my cultural upbringing, and while I have a hard time talking about many things with the stuffier members of my family, I have to appreciate their “live by the sword, die by the sword mentality.” My father thinks the virus threat is real and that his number may well be up, but I’ve got to give him credit, he is willing to go down the way he has lived - with his golf clubs at the beginning of each day and a bottle of wine at the end of each day. He is 80 years old and insists on living his life as he always has, even though he is well aware that the virus could well take him.

And to be perfectly true to my father’s health regime, he actually ends the day with a fine single malt (Lagavulin 16 is his prefence - he swears, I kid you not, that single malt has medicinal properties) with a martini or two before he gets into the wine that precedes the single malt.

@mcr, my octagenarian mom is pretty much the same way. I think the issue with the seniors is that it's one thing for them to behave as they see fit, but quite another thing for them to risk the already overburdened staff of the local hospitals.

@george I have a functioning immune system too, but first off one reason for us all to stay in is to protect our friends who are doctors (which is one reason I don't have better PPE -- if I could get hold of either N95s or KN95s that were real, I'd be handing them to friends who work in the hospital system) and second off, this thing is nasty -- I have one friend who was simply flu-like sick for four weeks, but another family member in his forties who had it, and got to the pointing of updating his will.

Everyone has to decide how much risk to take in life. Flu is a risk we take, and so will this virus be. The best thing I could do for my doc right now is to go to the gym, which is closed along with all the other expensive amenities in our bldg. If we don't buy soon (and odds are we won't), Mrs George and I may move to a bldg with bigger apartments and no amenities. What's the point in paying for a basketball court I can't use? I could actually use another 200 sq ft. Maybe I'll be MCR's new neighbor.

Ali, Your comment shows that there is no one solution which fits all. As long as there is hospital capacity, individuals should decide for themselves.

That does raise another question. We are a society based on individual freedom and responsibility but as govt support has increased over last 50 years as in Medicare, Medicaid, Emergency care etc, it is unclear where the balance is.

I've used this company to order other medical supplies. My sister previously ordered kn95 masks for her and coworkers and family members. I've also ordered a box and we'll share with family and friends once received. I certainly can't vouch for the legitimacy of this company, so I would recommend doing your own research into them.

https://accumed.com/n95-mask-for-sale-respirator-safety-face-mask-z1.html

I think it is a mistake to simply put a moratorium on evictions till August and do nothing else. There is too great a chance of that pushing a lot of people into digging themselves into holes that they can't climb out of. Then what happens? Unless that's the plan - to create an emergency and then use the Vicomte de Valmont "It's beyond my control" to cram down some otherwise unpalatable rent forgiveness solution.

@Ali - My father won’t be going to the hospital and putting any workers in danger if he comes down with the virus. He thinks doctors and hospitals are for sissies, and I am fairly certain his current wife will not be taking him should he collapse, but rather would be just fine with his passing on. They both joke about it and I really do give them credit for their honesty and lack of hypocrisy.

Ali, kn95 is the European version of the n95 and has been approved by the CDC. You can get them at New London pharmacy on 8th Ave $8.00 each. They also have the surgical masks at three for $10.00 I believe. I have been using the same n95 for at least the last seven weeks. I use the surgical mask underneath as a liner. I am rotating the surgical liners by least recently used dates and before I go outside I give a light steaming by teakettle to the 95 and surgical masks. So far so good and I have been sharing some new masks with friends etc. I read somewhere that a three layer cotton mask is about as effective as an n95 if the fabric is tightly woven. If I run across that link I will post it here. Saving these masks for first responders is fine and dandy but my logic is, if we're not protecting ourselves to the best of our abilities and we wind up in ER we are just increasing the burden/risk for health care workers. I am in no way hoarding this stuff. My collection is modest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/nyregion/reopen-coronavirus-nyc-testing.html

The NYT cover story agrees with my view that NYC is the least resilient place in the country.

"I can’t help but feel the challenge is more intense here than anywhere else in the United States,” said Dr. James Crawford, the senior vice president for laboratory services at Northwell Health

thanks Keith and stache for the mask info. FWIW, seems like the tech companies are doing WFH for several more months.

Although it seems like forever NYC has been on lockdown less then 2 months. Using Cuomo's 4 phase reopening plan is seems unlikely restaurants which are in phase 3 (or arts/entertainment which are phase 4) will reopen this year. So that's 4 times longer than we've already been. How do you think the city will be doing then? Especially if some of the projected food shortages kick in.

I just returned from a week in the city moving out of apt that is under contract because closing is scheduled for next week, and I found myself still loving the city and our neighborhood, pandemic notwithstanding. I’m putting my bet on NYC’s resilience.

Did any notice that Corona positive cases in NYC continues to reduce despite increased testing?

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

>MCR - we are tried and true New Yorkers, but for the first time since we got back from Telluride in early March we are thinking of visiting our friends in Florida. Probably won’t do it, but it’s hard to be here now with everything we love about being here is gone.

We don’t play golf and we don’t play tennis , so Florida for those pursuits doesn’t have any appeal.
Would have to live without theater and dance. Makes our choices very narrow and difficult

I am hoping NY comes back , but just very worried as to the time frame for that . So many small neighborhood businesses and restaurants will not survive this, and the fabric of NY will suffer

>MCR - where have you gone to ride this out, now you’ve left NY

LOL she didn't move very far!

For those who are extremely confident, how many physically set foot in Bushwick after the 1977 blackout?

@ph41 - 30yrs is spot on. We just moved within the same building. No plans to leave NY or my beloved Beekman Place building. However, we live in DC and also spend a fair amount of time in SF and Columbus, OH. My goal is to eventually relocate permanent residence to NY, but that has been my goal for 10 years now, so unclear whether that dream will ever come to fruition.

@30yrs - I have never heard of Bushwick, but remember, I am from Detroit and still love the ancestral home there. To your point, however, that Tudor beauty on Lake St Clair is not worth very much to
anyone other than those who are clinging to a dying way of life. When its current occupants pass on, nobody in my generation will maintain it and it will likely go the way of many of its neighboring properties have, meaning it will be purchased in cash by one of the Detroit casino owners or it will be bulldozed and replaced with housing that is more in line with the area’s current demographics.

New York will come back because New Yorkers and New York itself has no other choice. And as God-awful as this is, it looks like approximately 99.5% of people who get this will survive it, and that's without a vaccine or any real proven meds yet. The meds will come and be a game-changer just like they were for HIV.

FYI: I don't think many people would have set foot in Bushwick in 1977 pre blackout. Just saying.

Keith
TBG

I never heard of Bushwick till appx 5 years back.

>MCR - why not roll up all the other places and buy something you’ll love at 1 Beekman Place?

Despite being in the city for more than 25 years.

@ph41 - I’ve been working on it for 10 years, but were we to relocate to NY, my husband would prefer Westchester County, and I’d rather not be in NY at all than live in the suburbs.

And much to my chagrin, he won’t give up DC, which I view as almost as bad as Westchester County. Again, I’d rather live in a studio in NY than just about anywhere else, which is why I am placing my bet on NY. Paris has survived centuries of pestilence, overcrowding, revolution, what-have-you; I believe NY can as well (though I am wary of rising sea levels. That is one reason I like Beekman Place. The British were no dummies and chose some of the highest ground for their headquarters during The Revolution).

I don't know if either 300 or MCR will be getting in an Uber anytime soon to head out to Dweebs for a little bite to eat in Bushwick ; ) even in 2020.

I just looked up Bushwick and the images remind me of Bond St in 1984 and Detroit today. The arts scene in Detroit is on fire. I can see myself visiting Bushwick in 2020! (although the one time my husband and I went to Williamsburg over the 10 years we have been frequenting NY made us feel rather old and very unhip. Although not for us, we did appreciate it as an interesting new civilization).

I do not think I will go for dinner but if I see a property in shambles but with potential at a good price, I may take the subway. I tried many well reviewed restaurants in Billburg but found them to be lacking vs Manhattan downtown mid-range restaurants. I think people have lower expectations in Brooklyn from a restaurant and hence give higher ratings. Just my opinion.

Time out in Dumbo is great food court!!

300,
Even back in the 1980s the guy who owns the shop where I keep my desk said "People who live in basement studios in the East Village with the tub in the kitchen look down their noses at people in 4 bedroom colonials in New Jersey."

Sorry that was for MCR.

I think I might have to add "great food court" to the grand list of oxymorons (military intelligence, jumbo shrimp, etc). Most New York food courts are like what Las Vegas dining used to be: more expensive, lower quality knock-offs from some "institution" or "rising star" spot someplace else. And while they continue to open at a constant pace, they really haven't done that well for the food stalls. And I can only imagine the problems they are going to have in a COVID-19 world.

30, Have you actually walked through and ate at Dumbo Time Out food court in the late 6 months?

Late = last

For “East Village” looking down on NJ colonials, might be sadly true for some pretentious people but I continue to be amazed that people do not respect individual choices and most importantly what makes some one peaceful and happy.

I like eating here: https://www.theplazany.com/dining/the-plaza-food-hall/

@300 - I don’t think any of the East Village folks 30 was talking about would qualify as pretentious. I think his point was exactly in line with yours - different strokes. One man’s palace (NJ 4 bedroom colonial) is another man’s (the guy who prefers basement studio in the East Village) prison.

They were smart and called it a 'food hall'...or is that like a Jr. 4? Lol.

The "big name chef" of that project is famous for being a total dick.

Dumbo Time out food hall is better than Plaza’s food hall except for Madam M and a couple of other bakeries at the latter.

Lady M I mean.

I think that was a Freudian slip 300 (;

Seems like I heard Plaza food hall is closing(?).

My comments are not for this year but for the future. Large cities do not tend to crumble quickly. You can look at London or Paris after WWII or SF or Chicago after the fire, or multiple cities after the Spanish Flu. A decade from now, I predict NYC will still be a global first class city.

However, I do not expect a return to normalcy any time soon.

Also, I don't want to get deep into science on a real estate forum, but for those of you who believe the line that "a functioning immune system" will save you, let me remind you that in times prior to antivirals and antibiotics, people died regularly from infection diseases. The immune system is not some monolithic superhero from a Marvel movie but a complex, yet imperfect, biochemical system of warfare that REGULARLY loses wars against highly-mutating competitors who tend to be better armed due to their ability to change weapons faster than our immune systems can respond.

Currently, the Kawasaki news is further proof that this virus does not seem to be acting like any other virus we have dealt with in recent decades. Hopefully, that ends up being a red-herring.

Previously I made reference to Admiral James Bond Stockdale and his admonition to plan for confinement to be far longer than expected. Now we learn that Blas wants to keep restaurants basically shut till after labor day, at which time a new flu season will begin. Probably the same for any other business that makes city life livable like gyms, kids play areas, theaters, etc. This is why I'm so bearish on NYC real estate.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/14/restaurant-bar-owners-pan-de-blasios-coronavirus-reopening-plan/

AnonBK said: " for those of you who believe the line that "a functioning immune system" will save you, let me remind you that in times prior to antivirals and antibiotics, people died regularly from infection diseases."

This isn't 1900, when the leading causes of death were pneumonia/flu, TB, and what Cockneys would call trizzy bits. Today we have far safer food (e.g. refrigeration, proper packaging, pasteurization), better/healthier diets, less work/less hard work, better air quality (no burning coal in every house in the city), and better cleaning/disinfectant products. Even through this pandemic, the leading cause of death has been heart disease. Pneumonia has killed more people than Covid since the outbreak started. And I remain far more worried about getting killed by a car crossing the street in NYC than covid. But at least I'll leave a nice mask on my face when some out-of-control TLC plows me down.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm?s_cid=mm6919e5_X

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

"The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. The city’s largest mass casualty event in recent memory, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, claimed only a small fraction as many lives."

---

George, I am a practicing MD with several practices in multiple boroughs and part of one of the largest hospital networks in Manhattan. I built the practices ground up and I've seen almost a quarter of a million patients since I graduated from residency. I was previously a Chairman of my dept at the hospital.

You don't know what you are talking about and it's clear you didn't go to medical school. I think you should start by understanding what a virus is and then work upwards from there.

It's unfortunate that non-practicing non-providers have no liability at all when speaking about harmful things. The lies you are spouting are dangerous. Feel free to go through the medical journals, there is already plenty of data that shows your statements are made-up and not data-driven.

For everyone else, if you are going to take risks, go ahead, but at least try to talk to someone with a medical background before doing it. Don't just listen to someone on the internet that doesn't know what a virus is or the difference btwn a pancreas and a spleen. If someone wants to smoke cigarettes, I am ok with that but I feel they should know the truth and then make up their minds.

I actually support some return to normalization but not on the basis of lies. There is serious risk with this disease. It's not just mortality, it's month-long ICU stays for 30 and 40-somethings as well that are concerning. It's Kawasaki disease. It's GI related viral shedding. Viral myositis. Cardiomyopathy. Renal dysfunction. Encephalitis. I've seen all of these related to covid already. This is not the flu except to people who stopped taking biology after high school.

Doc,
This is a question more for my peace of mind, not to try to challenge the complexity and seriousness of this virus. Is it accurate to say that approximately 99-99.5% of people who come in contact with this virus are going to get through it with minimal problems?

Keith
TBG

I am beginning to think that ICU admission rate along with death rate will be a more meaningful measure. Perhaps BK already has info on this.

For NYC hospitalization rate is 2.5x death rate. Do not know ICU rate.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

What you can't tell from that data is what percentage of those hospitalized don't survive. I was surprised that the per capita infection Rate in Sten Island is double Manhattan?

Everyone should tune in to CBS right now - spotlight on Montefiore.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html

The Richest Neighborhoods Emptied Out Most as Coronavirus Hit New York City

>> And I remain far more worried about getting killed by a car crossing the street in NYC than covid.

Number of pedestrian deaths per month in NYC is ~10. Number of COVID deaths per month has been ~10,000. Even in 18-44 age bucket, it has been ~375. So depending on how you slice it, it’s a factor of 100x to 1000x different for most people. Perhaps you should be paying more attention when you are crossing the street?

Yes indeed. Remember that almost all of those non-elderly who died of covid had underlying conditions like obesity, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, etc. I have none of those. So my covid risk is minimal. And I'm a New Yorker at this point, so I don't exactly wait around for the little man to light up.

Some death data by Comorbidity. Unfortunately, no way to tell have many perfectly healthy people end up in ICU. Also many of the diseases listed are common rather than rare.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

New positive data very encouraging despite 40k tests per day. You can click on the county so get localized info.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

More and more I like focusing on the stories of people that have survived or had relatively mild symptoms. Fortunately this seems to be the majority, statistically speaking. This is no comfort for the small percentage that winds up on a respirator or in ICU.

A close friend tested positive for antibodies recently, his wife did not become infected and they live in a relatively cozy 2 bedroom. He felt extremely run down and lost his sense of smell for about a month. These are two very fit people in there early forties, CrossFit, runners etc.

Another good friend had it in London, decent condition though he enjoys spending quite a bit of time in the pub : ) for him it was like a very bad cold for about 2 weeks.

Another friend wound up in the hospital, it hit him pretty hard. However no respirator just supplemental oxygen. High fever for a couple of nights difficulty breathing.

My family was very sick in early January, very bad coughs, sore throat extremely fatigued. I personally hadn't felt that sick in 20+ years! at the time I joked with my wife I guess it's my age... We're all healthy and active, I've followed a plant-based diet since I was 17 (I'm 56) I run, ski, surf and golf, I'm in reasonably decent shape. We're all curious as to whether or not we actually had this thing already?

What has your personal experience been with covid-19?

Interesting story about some folks in South Florida;
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200516/coronavirus-florida-antibody-tests-bolster-suggestion-covid-spread-early-in-florida

I know an older couple close to 80, where very careful and healthy husband got it, spent time in ICU, recovered, but wife has no signs. All that tells me is that there is much we do not know about Corona. Infection rate is certainly much higher with the limited samples of antibody tests we have seen in NYC. But to Doc BK point, outside of death, the outcome may be serious for many as this beast is far more infectious than flu.

In my opinion, as a society we do not have much choice besides to open up in phases and accept the risks.

The problem with this disease is, you can 'get well', then a week later experience multiple organ failure. And now it looks like covid is expressing other awful manifestations. Children, loss of limbs etc.

Nothing like the financial crisis of 2008 you say?

https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds

I think 99% of people prob won't die from Covid if they get it. We already have an idea that ~20% of NYC has it, ~1.6m with ~20k deaths. Although as an MD, on a personal level, death is not what I'm concerned about - death should be painless.

The bigger concern is the long-term healthcare implication. Viruses can essentially reprogram anything in anyway and we don't know exactly how covid works - so far what we know about it is extremely troubling (specifically that it seems to target every organ). The variety of presentations also makes one wonder - is this one virus or multiple viruses (ie significant mutations causing different presentations)? The Kawasaki issue (multi-inflammatory disorder in children) is another concerning reminder that we really don't understand this at all and there are serious risks with this virus still. More concerning is the number of healthy patients that become intubated. We don't see this with anything else at this scale (obviously).

All of this said, we have to reopen the economy slowly. The more complicated part is how? It's one thing to legally open the economy but in NYC the problem is much deeper than that. For ex, patients can come to all of my offices, we are "essential services", yet volume is down 50-90% depending on the borough. So the govt is not holding us back. It's the fact that many are too scared. You can open restaurants for ex but they won't survive at 50% capacity. And we were roughly at 50% capacity the day before the govt shut down restaurants.

In theory, we should have a solid test-and-trace program now and essentially limitless tests. We have neither of those & there don't seem to be any plans for this at the national level. So, if the plan is no plan, then there is not much reason to shut down the economy. The point is to create and execute a plan - we squandered that time already.

At this time, I would support increasing taxes for commuting btwn states/cities at a national level and using that money for a covid fund. And then letting each local govt decide how much risk to take. This will allow us to learn quicker. My concern is if this is done without at least partially firewalling cities from each other, every population will slowly regress towards the riskiest pathway - something that could be uncontrollable if the virus spreads throughout the country - and potentially an irreversible decision.

It's encouraging to see some very promising results coming out of some of the current trials.

Keith, you should go check if you got antibody, is it much easier now ?

https://nypost.com/2020/05/18/nyc-shootings-skyrocket-with-dozens-of-victims-in-a-week/

Crime seems to be up in DC. Good old-fashioned bank robbery foiled yesterday on the 1300 block of New York Avenue.

As usual the poor are taking the brunt of the violence.

Remember that viral video of the girl being beat for her sneakers?

'Chief of Detectives Rodney Harrison said that 16-year-old Tyquan Howard was shot dead last week for his alleged role in the beat down of a 15-year-old girl for her Air Jordans in early March."

Keith you beat me to it!

I made a point earlier in this thread about NYC being one of the least resilient places and among the last to reopen. This seems to be the case, along with other places run by morons like Illinois and Michigan. But NY really takes the cake, from cops beating people for not physically distancing, declaring luxury condo construction "essential", and Cuomo's great idea of "hey, let's stick covid patients in nursing homes". Let's not forget Blas visiting the gym the day he told us all they're too dangerous.

Schools on NY may not reopen in the fall, or they may try idiotic ideas like rotating days, which quickly proved unworkable in Israel, which has already reopened schools. This would be a real death knell for the city's mass affluent who will be called upon to pay massive tax increases to fund local Democrats' bloated spending.

Meanwhile the southern states like Florida and Georgia have been reopened for weeks. These are the states that would love to take a big chunk of NY's high earners. The best hope for NY is that these people take their politics with them and infect these states with the same political diseases NY has.

People say, "NYC came back after 9/11." Fine, but there were better leaders up and down, from Mayor to Governor to President. They better get it together quickly else even die hard NYers like Mrs George are going to decamp for somewhere south, west, or south by southwest.

FL is already infected but it is a slow process for the disease to show up.
“The best hope for NY is that these people take their politics with them and infect these states with the same political diseases NY has.”

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-forbearance-tsunami-4-7-million-mortgages-are-now-in-forbearance-with-an-unpaid-principal-of-1-trillion/?__s=arxunzfahpiz9dngj9cc&utm_source=drip&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%F0%9F%93%88+Is+the+Forbearance+Tsunami+the+Start+of+Another+Crash%3F&utm_content=%F0%9F%93%88+Is+the+Forbearance+Tsunami+the+Start+of+Another+Crash%3F

In case some people have not seen this link:
https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard

@300: Thanks - that really drives home the fact why "one size fits all" policies just don't make any sense, either for the US or for any given state.

Indeed. But makes me wonder how strictly made up measures like ICU bed capacity need to be met.

Should say made up targets for meaningful measures like ICU beds.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html

Good old Nouriel, one of the people I was paying attention to when I started the Burkhardt group in 2007. Was very recently working with his partner who was looking for a pied a terre in NYC.

Jim Paulson said today that this is the start of a new bull market.

Earlier today Mohamed El-Erian said he doesn’t like betting on things he doesn’t understand, that he can’t predict the health progress or the moral hazard on the policy side; urges investors to use caution.

@300_mercer

I don't think these ideas are completely made up. They are definitely not precisely correct, the goal is to set a conservative threshold.

In the case of ICU beds, the issue is obvious. In a situation where you have a wave up ahead, it takes time to increase ICU beds in advance of the disease wave. We already know now how we can increase beds, but it still takes time.

So far in the US, we haven't really seen what "post-capacity" healthcare looks like it. Obviously mortality rates for every disease would be reset in that environment.

BK, I realize targets have to be set and various inputs must have been considered to decide on that target but how does one set such a precise target as 30% available capacity and not open up if NYC is 28%?

They have to draw a line somewhere. Fudging just gets people in trouble down the road.

CDC has put out a set of ridiculous guidelines for offices to reopen. If followed strictly, these would destroy NYC as an office location. Employees are supposed to drive themselves (no carpools, no public transit), stagger start times (which will be coordinated with school drop off and pick up for all 3 kids, right?), wear masks at all times, and my personal favorite:

"Limit use and occupancy of elevators to maintain social distancing of at least 6 feet."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/office-buildings.html

While it's easy to laugh at such stupid advice, the risk officers at big corporations run like scared chickens even on a good day. I suspect that WFH will continue for possibly years to come -- like I said earlier about Admiral Stockdale's advice to give up all optimism about getting out soon.

Mr. front_porch and I are thinking about renting a car for part of the summer, but if we're in the city, where do we put it? A number of my neighbors have fled, but not so many that there are parking spaces lying around for the taking. I assume the same problem holds for Downtown, where my office is; there wasn't much parking there before. #carpocalypse

NPR: Coronavirus Antibody Testing Shows Lower Fatality Rate For Infection : Shots - Health News.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought?ft=nprml&f=1001

Don't think that matters much when there is a nearly 50% failure rate currently in anti-body tests

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/26/cdc-coronavirus-antibody-tests-could-be-wrong-50-of-the-time/

I used to keep my car at the office out in the suburbs, but moved it to the city back in March. Street parking was easy for a while (downtown) but has been getting tougher.

Interestingly, the four-stack parking garage nearby which used to run near 100% capacity has been about one-third full since the mass exodus and hasn't changed. I've been tempted to stop by and see if they're more flexible on price these days.