"Apartment Renters flocking back into NYC"

Do you not think there are people like you extending the lease even though they are not here?

And every one is watching very few corona deaths in NYC. I do not expect it to stay that low as more people start work in person but the conditions look pretty good to make people feel safe to go to offices in-person. And all the young people are dying to get out of their childhood bedrooms.

I do agree on bs advertorial.

I know of no company yet that is planning to bring its NYC office workers back in person. While rates of the virus are low now, it's in part bc NYC is sealing itself from the world with mandatory quarantine for ppl coming from most of the country. And not opening schools or restaurants or Broadway or .. None of this is sustainable. There will almost certainly be a wave 2 this fall, and that will further keep young people away.

It's not just NYC, it's the entire country. Look at Florida, the Midwest etc...

Interesting that Facebook signed a lease for 700,000 sq. ft in the Farley building.
Guess they think some people will be working from their offices

The Real Deal has reeled of desperation lately. Serious rationalizing to convince everyone else and themselves that the bottom isn’t about to fall out.

reeked**

Re Facebook: Yes, that deal has been in the works since last year. But they're not moving in any time soon: The current building renovation isn't expected to be done before the end of this year, then they'll have to do their own fitting out -- they might be realy to put people in around this time next year. FB (all the techs, really) certainly has enough cash to not worry about keeping a space idle for an extra 9-12 months.

Facebook is also something of a whale when it comes to office space. There are not a lot of options for such huge space, so it needs to be secured when it's available. They may take what they can get and sublease what isn't needed. Or they may have other leases coming vacant.

https://ny.curbed.com/maps/amazon-google-facebook-nyc-offices

Perhaps the news of NY’s demise by the doom and gloom predictors on this board is somewhat premature.

Hope everyone loves their long commutes

It's not just big business that NYC has to worry about. When >1/3 of small businesses fold and the City is $22 billion short on its budget makes things dicey enough.

Had you asked me 10 years ago if I would be checking back to see how predictions from that time panned out in 2020, I would never have said “for sure!” Now I am just hoping these threads are still reviewable in 10 years, and that I personally am still able to review them at that time. I cannot wait to see how this all turns out. (BTW - Has anyone else been surprised by the price of gold recently?)

StreetEasy has some predictions that make 30 look downright conservative.

https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-rents-unemployment-stats/

I can't wait for the "reasons 30 was wrong even though his prediction came true" posts. ;)

MCR,
I'm kind of surprised how the price of everything is going up yet there's no inflation.

@30yrs - All the spinning of what is occurring and about how all the traditional fundamentals of macroeconomics no longer apply is fascinating. If many are to be believed, it turns out money IS free; governments can create it through various tools with reckless abandon and no downside, ever! Woo hoo!!

So much flocking!

https://therealdeal.com/2020/08/13/manhattan-vacancy-hits-new-peak-brooklyn-stable

You may have to factor into the Brooklyn and Queens numbers that a much lower percentage of the listings in those boroughs appear on listings websites (so they aren't showing up in this particular report which is entirely dependent on that). I also think there are probably a lot more tenants there who have stopped paying rent but have not vacated due to eviction moratoria whereas Manhattan tenants were quicker to pull up stakes and run back to where they came from.

Note that Stuyvesant Town/Peter Cooper Village is now offering 3 months free rent as opposed to zero historically (they have always adjusted rent rather than offering concessions).

BTW I think these reports are probably substantially undercounting the number of vacancies because I think we all know of buildings with tons of vacant units but only a few officially listed for rent.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/13/empty-apartments-in-manhattan-reach-record-high-topping-13000.html