NYC Sales Inventory 09.01.08

That's always the pattern, and it's still nearly a year's supply.

"Must have address" eliminates valid listings.

Good idea
However, a a few comemnts
a number of these listings also include the bronx -- realtors who are deliberately sticking them into Manhattan

-- just run your search with sort by least to most expensive -- the cheapest ones are typically not Manhattan

also you should run it to exclude all listings in contract

the ones with no address are hard to evaluate -- often they are duplicates from nestseekers or ardor or similar agents who are just re-marketing other people's listings hoping to draw buyers

there are challenges, but I am glad you are putting up a banchmark -- as long as we keep the same benchmark, then there are potentially the same biases

running s similar search to yours but putting some additional statistics in there and restricting to 3br 2ba for upper west side and adjoingin areas in Harlem gives
Sales in Central Harlem, Manhattanville, Morningside Heights, West Harlem or All Upper West Side
We found 378 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms
Median price: $2,500,000 Median size: 2,117 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,239

Of these 11 of the cheapest 20 are from the Bronx, and I did not require them to have an address
If I add that criteria then I get
We found 357 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms with an address
Median price: $2,600,000 Median size: 2,100 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,300

If I restrict to UWS
We found 253 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms with an address
Median price: $3,325,000 Median size: 2,241 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,647
Of these only 15 are below 1.5 million and 1 below 1 million

WOW!
I am a factor of 3 off from this median price in terms of my target . Ultra ultra low -end.

If you only look at the Harlem areas
Sales in Central Harlem, Manhattanville, Morningside Heights or West Harlem
We found 104 listings with at least 3 bedrooms with at least 2 bathrooms with an address
Median price: $1,455,600 Median size: 1,684 ft² Median price per ft²: $796

WOW again!
Less than half the UWS price, but still way up there, and 52 listings (50% above 1.5 million). Many of the cheaper ones are pretty much fringe

Steve, you know to include listings without addresses skews more unfairly than excluding them Many are shams, many are duplicates. You know that. Granted, FSBOs don't appear on streeteasy searches, so excluding the no-address listings will yield a total # lower than it actually is (most of those Ardor listings, for example, are FSBOs). But it is at least an information type of search the OP did to establish a benchmark. Unless there is a spike in the popularity of FSBOs, the search run above seems a fair enough assessment of market inventory trends.

Joe Davis suggests that you have to run a search to exclude all listings in contract. I'm not so sure that will give a true picture of the actual state of the market. To take one example: 310 West 133rd Street, a townhouse which was in contract (at least for a few weeks), is now back on the market at a 100K markdown. Don't know what that means, or why it happened, but I'm beginning to wonder whether we aren't likely to see more of this kind of thing: listings in contract which myeteriously cease to be in contract. If that starts to happen in the condo market particularly, I think we will have to be prepared to revise the reported inventory numbers up.

let us track both ways -- with and w/o the ones in contract

let's also be realistic. The vast majority of apartments that go in to conrtact will not come back on the market.

counting things in contract is going to lead to a lot of confusion. when people speak of inventory, they generally mean units actually available.

These searches did exclude listing in contract which is why I preempted each with a description of the parameters used for the search such as "All apartments, must have address, excluding listings in contract." Anyway, obviously no search will ever be perfect. Anyone who has utilized StreetEasy's search engine knows that to not exclude listings in contract includes a huge number of older listings that realistically can't be considered current even if one occasionally finds its way back on the market after a deal falls through. As for "must have address" kylewest put it well enough; shams, multiples etc skew the results. Yes, the few FSBOs are overlooked. My purpose was to document the data that I have access to on a certain day in a way that anyone else could put in the same parameters and compare how inventory has changed since today. Hopefully people can reference this thread down the road and use it as a benchmark.
That's all.

"Steve, you know to include listings without addresses skews more unfairly than excluding them Many are shams, many are duplicates. You know that."

I don't know that - you don't either. Some are, some aren't. Either way it's not a perfect metric. Take the average between the two.

Just FYI, part of New York County lies on the mainland, in what is usually called the Bronx. Not that it's these Eastchester listings they put here, but because the canal - formerly the border - was moved south, there is a continental part of New York County.

Hasn't urbandigs already gone through this inventory cleansing exercise for the widget on his site?

Yes. Urbandigs provides a useful running inventory monitor.

As usual, Steve needlessly picks arguments for the sake of typing. Steve, I do know the majority of no address listings on streeteasy are problematic. Over a year of carefully scrutinizing every no address listing in and surrounding GV, I was clear that most were complete b.s. by the scummiest agencies operating in NYC. Duplicates abounded, many sat for months related to units that had long since sold, some were complete fabrications meant to lure buyers to call the listing "agent" only to be directed to other units the agent did not represent for the seller either. I see no basis for "averaging" this polluted "no address" category with the legit. listings. You like it because it inflates the inventory number. I think what is more important is to have a consistent metric.

As sales get harder and agents get laid off and more are driven to the Ardor-type firms, the bogus no address listings may increase. There was a spike in such listings last spring actually. So to include these no-address listings may cause the inventory number to appear to be increasing when it only means more lousy agents are bottom-feeding the FSBO market. Best to just cut this variable out of the metric and get a more accurate week-over-week figure. If it is off by 1-2%, so what. At least it is consistent and not reliant upon consistent behavior by the worst (and most desperate) segment of the RE market--the Ardor-type agents.

Just checked out Urbandigs inventory charts and they are indeed useful. He actually has the exact same number as I do for Manhattan apts, so apparently we both concluded that "must have address" and "excluding listings in contract" was the most accurate search we could base the numbers on. Well, if anyonee wants to know what the numbers were on 9/1/08, here they are. Otherwise, check with UrbanDigs.com for the trending charts.

As for all the nitpicking, who cares what the exact number is, it's not like I have a "buy" order that will execute the instant Manhattan's inventory hits 8000. I just want to know if it's up or down from here.

Manhattan listings with an address are now up to 7,035, I think. There does seem to be a bit of a Labor Day bump - a little more than a 1% increase in the past two days.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Could be an interesting trend to watch. Thanks for starting a well-controlled statistical thread.

8000 by Turkey Day. And thanks for the props neighbor.

The new listings are coming but still no appreciable lowering of prices. This is going to be more drawn out than I imagined. Wonder if it is the sellers or the brokers who are more in denial. You'd think some at least would motivate active bidding with a tempting price.

is there some way to get information on inventory numbers from 2001 to now -- Would 8000 still be a low number for inventory in teh historical context?
250 3br/2ba apts in the UWS seems to be a very very small number for inventory given the population in the area -- compare with cities of the same population elsewhere

357 if you add Harlem and Harlem's population does not seem like an impressive per capita number either

Despite all the bearishness here, evidence of price declines as a trend is still not there -- or at the very least the number that are available in a affordable price range is still substantially lower than what I saw in the UWS/Harlem 2007 summer -- given that rates are now higher and loans harder to get, this is amazing, unless the inventory today is quite a bit lower than summer 2007 and earlier

Now it's 7,105, and increase of 2.3% in just three days. I don't trust the absolute numbers at all, since a lot of those listings are duplicates, and a lot of genuine listings are probably missed by this method of counting. Still, those distortions are relatively constant, so the trend is probably real.

With inventory climbing almost as fast as Wall Street job losses, i wonder about RE pricing, going forward. By the way does anyone know when the 3Q report is due? And, I've heard conflicting stories as to whether Q3 is always slow (some say not, some swear it is). Thanks.

papavaf...inventory is dropping and real estate pricing will most likely increase from what it is today. Does that help you feel better?....here's more.....Earlier in this year the fed added unprecedented liquidity to the economy which s/b impacting within the next 2 quarters. This will feed inflation and drive up prices even further. So if your not a homeowner by all means start looking now. Good Luck.

You so high steveF.

steveF - thanks for the advice. Any idea as to when the 3Q report is due? It's good to have some numbers prop up speculation.

kgg...from reading your posts there's no helping you, your too paralyzed by fear..I know it hurts to hear it, but there is hope for others so...don't get in their way!!

what Q3 report are you referring to? Miller Samuel, Prudential Douglas, Halstead etc...? Q3 is over Sept 30, my friend, so probably anywhere between Oct 1-3.

Paralyzed by fear - I wouldn't go that far. But purchasing a "home" in this city after an unprecedented 12 year run up in prices, including a 3 year stretch of sheer madness, is a daunting prospect. As for inventory, it is not dropping, it is rising and will continue to do so. That was the whole point of this thread. To use the doldrums of summer as proof of dropping inventory is dubious. It seems to me that of the many economic indicators out there one is hard-pressed to come up with a single one that is positive regarding real estate. So I am bearish and you are a bull. One of the few left on this board. I promise I won't be getting in your way. Buy now friend.

The inventory number is probably a bit higher when you realize that there were a number of apartments that were on the market and then pulled because of slow traffic/no offers. Are they off the market? Most are likely to be shined up and put back on the market between now and the beginning of '09 as "new listings". Some people are going to hold off for as long as they can to put their apartment up for sale until they get a gauge on where things are headed.

I do believe NYC RE will hit some bumps (already has), but how difficult it will be is tough to guess. NYC is not invulnerable, but it is very different than some random town in the suburbs. Reasonably priced apartments in decent neighborhoods do still seem to be selling in a short amount of time. Overpriced apartments in bad shape in fringe neighborhoods are not selling and that is not necessarily a bad thing.

is there a good place to find FSBOs without looking at ARDOR?

NYT. Look for listings that don't have a brokerage logo.

Up to 7150. +2.9% in four days.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Now 7291. +4.98% in eight days.

In the first half of the year inventory was rising by about 300-400/month. I expect it will do the same soon. But before that I think you will see an even faster acceleration as the market catches up from the summer doldrums.

If all the new construction inventory, that is being artificial held from the market, was to show up in the inventory numbers tomorrow, what would the new number look like. That my friends is the most telling number going forward.

dco - The only problem with that is that it is not "artificially" held from the market. A developer has every right to not sell their product, or even list it for sale. The problem is that they can't pay off their loans or investors without it. If sales truly are slow and the market that soft then you will start to see the pain. Some will list more, others will just have to fold (or whatever the condo developer equivalent is in a workout).

Inventory is up to 7,542, an increase of 8.7 percent in the past fifteen days. Is inventory exploding or is this consistent with the usual post labor day activity?

Bardamu - my guess is part both. Listings are being added because no one wanted their listing to get stale over the summer. Add to that that probably the same slowness applies to closings and contracts, inflating the speed of the growth. That said I also think that you will see this keep going. I would not be surprised to see inventory of 9000 before the year is out, perhaps even more if sales drop.

Sales listings in NYC

9.01.08 Manhattan - 6,945
9.18.08 Manhattan - 7,675

Looks like my prediction of 8000 Manhattan listings by Turkey Day needs to be amended.

8000 Manhattan listings by Halloween...I mean Columbus Day.
9000 Manhattan listings by Thanksgiving.

7,793. Up 12.2% in less than three weeks.

Of course, selling an apartment isn't like selling stock; you don't just push a button to offer your position for sale "at the market". Listing agreements are negotiated contracts, and even a panicked seller can't execute instantly. An owner who was spooked into selling by the events of the past week is probably still in the listing pipeline.

Maybe one of the resident brokers can comment on the typical lead time from first contact with a potential seller to the appearance of a listing on the Web?

Damn. I wonder what selling looks like in such an environment. I have a friend who is losing the stabilization on his apartment now that he is married and they are waiting to look and thinking of paying the increased rent for a while to see where things settle.

7,977 right now, or a rounding error away from 8,000 -- and Columbus Day is over two weeks away.

When brokers' listings that are 300 days old say "no longer available" on streeteasy, what does it mean? Taken off the market? Broker's listing agreement expired with no contract yet? In contract? thx

Hey, lowery. That quastion's been asked a few time before, and someone usually pops up saying "That means it's sold" (a stealth broker, perhaps?), but I've seen plenty of these either pulled entirely (no sales record ever shows up), relisted with the same broker, or relisted with a new broker. If the unit is in contract, certainly the broker would prefer to say so.

bardamu - thanks for the update. i'm loving the inventory build. does anyone have a sense as to how much of this recent increase can be explained by seasonality?

That's a question that's interested me as well. Take a look at the following chart and ignore everything to the right of October:

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1206132198DYzLF&Record=2

2005 and 2007 saw a slight increase while 2006 saw a significant decline. Given that these three years were "frothy," I'm not sure they make for the best comparison.

kgg,

Where are the inventory numbers today?

8,036 and counting.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Thanks West,

Wow. Is that 1 year's supply? It is amazing how quickly the inventory is growing. Up 14% in less than a month.

the speed of this inventory build, coupled with all the issues affecting buyer demand/ability to buy is setting up to be the perfect storm

Have you guys seen anything interesting in the inventory? I haven't found a single place I want to see in the past month and I was expecting a lot. Where's the good stuff?

lo888: What are you looking for?

Ideally, 2,500 - 3,000 SF with considerable outdoor space in a doorman building. Need at least a 7 room apartment (3-4 bedrooms) PLUS a maids and office. Flexible on the neighbourhood as long as it is on the East side because the commute is easier. Prefer midtown, upper east, carnegie Hill, Fifth Avenue, etc. Also will consider West Village, the Gold Coast and parts of West Chelsea. Up to $3mn.

I've been told it can be done but I haven't seen it yet!

jake: 8000 might not be one year's supply - likely more. It's one years supply if you consider the volume of sales in 2006 and 2007. Given the volume of sales in 2008 was probably in the 4000 range (someone please correct me here), 8000 units might well be 2 years supply ...

Ok, I have lived in NY for 41 years. Where the F is the "Gold Coast"? Only place I have seen called that was in NJ.

Jake, I'm on it!

As I stated on 9.18.08:
8000 Manhattan listings by Halloween...I mean Columbus Day.
9000 Manhattan listings by Thanksgiving.

Looks like I was wrong - we're ahead of schedule.
9000 Manhattan listings by Halloween?
Sell now or you won't get your price forever!

September 1, 2008 / September 29, 2008

All apartments, must have address, excluding listings in contract:

NYC - 9,941 / 11,443
Manhattan - 6,945 / 8,042
Brooklyn - 2,287 / 2625
Queens - 406 / 486
Bronx - 255 / 274
Staten Island - 48 / 46

Over a thousand new Manhattan listings in under a month.
It should be noted that Staten Island listings are down - buy now or you will be locked out forever!

thanks kgg.

This "for sale" thing must be a good idea. It's really catching on!

Everyone's doing it. Funny though that on the UWS where I focus it really is the crap apts that are coming on the market. Very little prime 70's very little with character. It's almost strange. Like one person owns them all and they're unloading the crap before they will sell you the good shit. I suppose people stay in the good apartments.

lo888: Those are tough specs for under $3MM. There are a couple of CBHK listings at the Excelsior (Sutton Place) that come close, but the "terraces" are really glorified balconies, and the building is charmless.

The penthouse at 308 East 79th has amazing terraces, but it's at least one bedroom short: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/228314-coop-308-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

I think the apartment you really want is around $11MM:
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/947143

kgg: It's not that bad. One of my favorite buildings, 110-118 RSD, has three fresh listings for family-size apartments, plus a big, recent reduction on a stale one. The newest listing (with BHS) is egregiously overpriced, but every additional piece of inventory creates downward pressure on prices.

funny West,
I was thinking of a different apartment in the same building for 1o888:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350890-coop-1120-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

outdoor space, partial park and reservoir views and under $5mm
From the pics it looks unocuppied so seller might be motivated.

lo888 - I agree with West81st and others. You want around/under $1000psf for a huge (by manhattan standards) family apartment with a large outdoor space in a doorman building. I've been looking for similar, but smaller/cheaper (1700-2000SF for under $2MM), and am fine with a balcony (although would prefer larger outdoor space, of course). We've found that there are not a ton of apartments that fit our criteria, which of course means they command a premium. My experience has been that this problem only gets worse as the apartment is larger, so I would think the premium is even higher for the apartments in your specs.

My guess is that you need either (a) to get very lucky with a great deal / desperate seller or (b) have "average" prices in Manhattan fall to $700psf (which may or may not happen), so even with the premium, the apartments you want sell for $1000psf.

West81st - I'll take the penthouse at 308 East 79th: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/228314-coop-308-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

The terraces do look amazing.

I think we'd make the living room into two bedrooms (for a total of 4, which is what we want), combine the maid's room and kitchen for a large eat in kitchen/dining space, and make the dining room + foyer into a living room. Not ideal but it would work, I think.

But, um, the price has to come down another $1MM or more.

for 1o888:

http://www.brownharrisstevens.com/detail.aspx?id=909469

Ditto. I've lived in NYC since the day I was born (with the exception of a year sojourn abroad) AND I'm a real estate investor.

And I've never heard of a "Gold Coast" until I logged on to this site.

The "Gold Coast" seems to be whatever stretch of expensive buildings currently contains a broker's exclusive listing: West End Avenue from 72nd to 86th, the Museum Mile on Fifth Avenue, another stretch of Fifth in the Village, various pieces of Central Park West from 59th to 96th, etc.

Oddly, none of these places seem to face water, unless you count the Reservoir. They are "coastal" mostly in the sense that brokers who use the description are "coasting".

BTW, inventory is now 8,027. Not many new listings this week, but they still seem to outnumber the new contracts.

West81st - question for a pro who's unbiased - ever look at the supposed sales listings in the Friday New York Post? I thumbed through them at a coffee shop this morning and was struck by how radically different they are from everything posted on streeteasy forum threads. Although there was a reported sale of a 2-family in Woodhaven Qns for $385,000 when it had listed for $435,000, the rest were all sales supposedly at or above asking price, including a small Manhattan studio listed at $315,000 that sold at $365,000. Is this cherry picking what to report to the papers? Fudging on what the asking price had been? Lying about time on market? Thx

lowery - I wouldn't single out the Post; most newspapers that report recent sales seem to share at least two intractable biases:

1) Selection influenced by the brokerage houses and other sources of advertising dollars.

2) Display of only the "final" asking price, which may have been lowered substantially from the original price - even, in many cases, when the property was already in contract.

do they also "edit" the "time on the market" to start the clock ticking from the most recent price change?

I'm surprised we haven't seen more references to the Post's somber columnist Crudele, who has been saying things are really, really, really, really, really, really bad for a long, long, long, long, long time already

Lowery: I think the time on market is usually legitimate. The main problem there would be re-listings, where a listing moves from one shop to another, or taken off the market and then reinstated.

"Ditto. I've lived in NYC since the day I was born (with the exception of a year sojourn abroad) AND I'm a real estate investor.... And I've never heard of a "Gold Coast" until I logged on to this site."

Double ditto. All my life, never heard it used by anyone from here. Its probably people from Chicago. ;-)

That being said, I have heard it used many times in reference to the north shore of long island. Between Great Neck, Kings Point, Sands Point, Glen Cove, etc., you have a pretty unbroken string of wealth. And before much of it got subdivided, it was mostly estates (of the Sabrina or New Jack City variety).

I've only heard it used when referencing prime Greenwich Village - University & Lower Fifth Ave (bet Washington & Union Squares) or Upper Fifth (usually between 72nd & 96th). I've never heard it used to describe the UWS.

For the last time, can we agree the Gold Coast is in Chicago and there is no such thing in NY?

AvUWS, I've certainly heard "Gold Coast" used for both areas buster2056 mentions, though it's not used often outside of RE conversations in my experience.

Gold Coast is lower fifth- I've lived here for 23 years and it's always been called that

Gold Coast is used to reference the North Shore of Long Island, South Florida from Boca to Miami, and (relatively speaking, more recently) lower 5th Avenue.

Sales in NYC 09.07.08
We found 11,603 listings with an address excluding listings in contract.
Median price: $905,000 Median size: 1,108 ft² Median price per ft²: $965

Narrow your search
Manhattan (8,105), Brooklyn (2,669), Queens (491), Bronx (283), Staten Island (51)

Well, still increasing but slowing some. 9000 by Halloween might be a stretch but I feel there
might be a big push second half of October that will get us pretty close. C'mon baby you can do it.

Kgg, brokers often suggest to their selling clients that they wait to list until after the Jewish holidays are over. You may just get your wish for 9,000 inventory by the end of October. All we can do is wait and see.

The feeds from the major brokerages don't seem to have come through the past couple of days. Expect a little jump later this week when they catch up. Kas242 is also right about the high holidays, and the long Columbus Day weekend might also be a factor. Finally, I think there's a "shock and awe" effect from the sudden collapse of the financial markets.

8,188. The feeds seem to have caught up this afternoon.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Still just a bunch of overpriced crap coming on the market in my price range. And one observation I've made which doesn't really make sense to me is on the UWS before the summer there were always a number of floorthrus on the market and now there are none. Or close to it. Lot's of West End. Lot's above 86 and below 72nd but little in the 70's. It really does seem like the stufff coming on the market is 2nd rate. Any thoughts?

8,307.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1
9,000 by Halloween might happen, especially considering the carnage in financial markets this week.

kgg: I'm not surprised the quality of the new listings is generally unexciting. Most people with really great apartments in really great buildings have the resources to ride out a pretty severe storm. That said, it's not a total wasteland out there. A trickle of attractive properties in prime buildings are coming on the market from estates and relocators. I think the price competition among them will heat up over the next few months, after which we might start to see some dramatic market movement. A vacant apartment exerts powerful downward pressure.

And if you love NYC, and see yourself staying, the single greatest impediment to reaching that goal is finding/affording a home that you are happy in and can even grow in. My point is those apartments that are stars of there price points don't turn over often. People find there personal palace in this town and they hold on for dear life. It's the lesser apartments that are picked up by transients that get sold again and again.

Oh yeah, kgg? Just wait. The Dow will rally about 1,000 points, taking in every last sucker into the pool before heading back down to 7,000, and taking another 100,000 jobs with it, as well as putting ny, ca, mi into near if not actual bankruptcy (most likely will be saved by the treasury in the end). Then you will see those people who you think are holding on for dear life forced to sell. As well as the European force that was so effective in this run-up. In fact, wait until the Euro is dissembled into each country's respective original currencies. And then as people realize without a job here, they can live like billionaires in miami and california, this market will go back to 2000 levels. Just a prediction, and I'm not starting a thread or betting malraux $1,000 on it, ($1,000 wouldn't excite me much, plus I don't like the idea of gambling with a stranger on a website), but mark my words. I'll surely eat my hat if I'm wrong.

Actually I will start my thread, and challenge malraux to a bet. $100,000 we see (backpedalling a bit to improve probability of win here) sales in manhattan at 2004 levels by 2011.

kgg:
Here's an example of an estate sale in your target zone that would figure to be negotiable.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/357039-coop-320-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

8492 as of today...
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Now at 8612, up 24% since 9/1

Oh my. I was looking at the Streeteasy 3rd Q market snapshot. Can this possibly be correct? They show 359 new contracts in September and 130 cancelled contracts.

With inventory at 8612 and 359 new signings that puts supply absorption at 24 months!

And if you figure in the cancelled contracts, absorption is 36 months.

And I am going to guess that fewer units went to contract in October.

This is bad. This is very bad.

Not to mention the "hidden inventory" in new developments and the supply coming on. We could be talking 3-4 years of inventory. It will take a 30% price correction to even begin to get volume flowing.

jake, my guess is that there is some seasonality in all this but i have little doubt we get to 2 years of inventory soon if we are not there already (as you pointed out). that really is probably the most frightening statistic. 10-11 months of nationwide inventory in single family homes has led to the 20% or so price declines we've seen nationwide on case schiller. what does that mean for manhattan??

There were a few guesses that inventory might reach 9,000 by Halloween. Current inventory is 8,779, a few hundred short.

I'm guessing 9,000 by the end of next week and 9,500 by Thanksgiving.

Hey, the day's not over yet bardamu! :)

There might be a chance of getting to 9,000 tonight if the reporting were real-time. But the broker feeds come in batches, often with a delay of a day or two.

Or it's time to switch to Steve's methodology which gives 9075.
Ah, the flexibility of statistical analysis.

Oh, I like that idea!

One of my favorite recent statistics anecdotes comes from Argentina. They, like us, have a government body that is tasked with determining the annual rate of inflation. When the price of several core items increased "too much," they declared them to be anomalies and thus removed them from the index.

The result is an official inflation rate that is well below the actual rate of inflation.

"When the price of several core items increased "too much," they declared them to be anomalies and thus removed them from the index."

You ARE referring to the USA, right?

Yes, there are a lot of people who believe the government intentionally misrepresents the rate of inflation each year. Since social security benefits are tied to the inflation rate, it benefits the government to keep the rate as low as possible.

But in general I think most people would agree the official rates are fairly accurate and I rarely ever see any complaints from economists or the press.

Argentina's real inflation rate may actually be 50% more than the official rate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&refer=latin_america&sid=aEA0i4nvuLJI

Things have only gotten worse since then.

Or if that was a joke:

Joke --- >

o
|
---
|
/ \

Me.

Ok, for future reference, Streeteasy right aligns comments and ignores whitespace. That's a stick figure impersonation of myself.

Your pretty thin bardamu.

Binge and purge, baby. Binge and purge.

Just about 9,000.

9,022. Up 30% since Labor Day. That can't be normal.

Thanks for reviving the thread West 81st.
Indeed. 9000 has been broken and ahead of the original prediction.
I'd guess things slow down a bit but I'd guess 11,000 by Memorial Day.

Sales in Manhattan
We found 9,023 listings with an address
Median price: $1,200,000 Median size: 1,150 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,141
Information on Manhattan