No the brokers are not panicking... got it? good.

and prices are not going down, either. My broker told me both of these things.

SteveF: Of course Doug Heddings is fine. So are most established, senior brokers. If they had any sense, they built a cushion during the bubble, and they can ride out lean times - even a crash. Once volume picks up, they will make money again. Although the commission checks will be smaller, the competition will be thinner too.

Real estate has this in common with finance: people who were overextended are in trouble. People who lived within their means, and saved for a rainy day, have no reason to panic.

right West...people who bought or were forced to buy within their means = manhattan owners = people with stable jobs and incomes. Unstable or high risk job? go buy in Garden City, Long island you aren't getting in this building.

steveF... you have it backward. 30% of Manhattan buyers worked on Wall Street (source: NYTimes).

Those jobs are about as unstable and high risk as you can get in 2008... that co-ops don't want to sell to Wall Street anymore is a pretty clear sign of that, but its a little too late.

30% were Wall Street and a good 20% were foreign buyers. Add in a reasonable assumption that 10% of condo buyers were other speculators and you have a troubled market. Foreign buyers and speculators will be out if they see downward fundamentals in the market

well, lets think of it this way... any buyers NOT at risk in this market?

I can't think of too many union members who can afford million dollar co-ops...

"people who bought or were forced to buy within their means = manhattan owners = people with stable jobs and incomes."

Right. LEH, BSC, MER, AIG, LMA...

O.

back to steve and his LMAOs

Thanks so much for that clarification SteveF. You are not panicking.
Got it.

Anyone else follow SteveF's link and see Doug Heddings' post today, "Sellers have 4 Options in Declining Market"? Perfect.

West81st, I think you're dead on regarding the brokers who will survive. It will be a positive development when the brokers who provide nothing other than "access" disappear, and the remaining brokers actually know something about neighborhoods, buildings, boards, financing, etc.

tenemental, definitely thought the same thing - brokers who did everything for a commission won't have much to fall back on, whereas those like UrbanDigs, who actually work for their clients, will ride this out as well as anyone. I'm simplifying of course, but there will be few of the sleazier kind who survive this. And that's good news for buyers AND sellers.

agreed

re: kspeak, above

Foreign buyers already pulling back: http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/fewer-foreign-clients-buying

We seem to spend so much time thinking about listing/selling prices, without really letting it sink in that the real shortage is of mortgage funds. (Sure, some people can pay cash, but they still need someone down the chain to buy the apartment they're leaving.)