chasing the market down: our favorite price choppers

big drop...but lets face it $2.5 million was ridiculous -- even at the peak.

Whne this thread reach 1,000 comments I will pop the bottle of Canei.

When*

"very confusing listing...it will be interesting to watch this one unfold. have a feeling that they're being so tricky that they'll screw themselves."

If it's not some sort of typo/clerical error, they are total assholes.

How anyone can see example after example of price cuts like this and still consider NYC real estate as 'thriving', I do not know.

Here's another one that has dropped it's asking price by 52% since first going on the market in May 2008
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/biggest-price-cut-of-the-day-969-fifth-avenue-streeteasy-com-prudential-douglas-elliman

Here's the SE link to the above apt. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/378730-coop-969-fifth-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york

but again...the original asking for a 1 br (or 2 if don't mind walking through it to get to the living room) was absurd. It's still a ridiculous price for what it is.

What amazes me isn't the original asking price. It's that at one point, not too long ago, people were actually willing to pay these astronomical amounts and didn't even seem to question them. There must have been lots and lots of Wall Street money floating around and/or several people who invested with Madoff and mistakenly thought they were set for life.

969 Fifth, 7th floor also discussed here:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7617-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-east-side-edition?last_page=true

This was Texas RE money.

The townhouse at 173 East 80th received attention here for an $800K cut in April. Another $800K off the final ask got the deal done.
02/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $7,200,000.
04/17/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $6,900,000.
06/18/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $6,500,000.
08/12/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/12/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
11/20/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $5,750,000.
01/31/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $5,700,000.
04/03/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $4,900,000.
04/29/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/10/2009 Sale recorded for $4,100,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/179484-townhouse-173-east-80th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

downtown is getting a bit more interesting.
3S is trying to sell for $2.295.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/329891-condo-155-hudson-street-tribeca-new-york
05/18/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $1,487,250.
08/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $2,825,000.
08/18/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Corcoran.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $2,775,000.
10/15/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $2,600,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $2,295,000.
11/14/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $2,195,000.
12/18/2008 Delisted temporarily.
01/06/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
03/19/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,995,000.
05/28/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $1,695,000.

aboutready... it's funny be we are all on our "best" behavior of late, no? :)

That's nice neighbor love there :)

good behavior has its merits. as does bad sometimes. :)

a year makes a huge difference, no?

oui

Looks like the closing price at 173 East 80th may have captured the attention of the neighbors.
169 East 79th Street
12/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $6,575,000.
01/23/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $5,786,000.
04/24/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $4,900,000.
06/19/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $4,200,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368720-house-169-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

Are the taxes on 169 E79th for real?

Sledge, the taxes come out to a little under 3Gs a month...not so bad. Cost to maintain? no idea....another 4Gs? When you think about it, that's a heck of a home with reasonable monthly charges as long as you got the pockets to step up to the plate. I just passed this place this morning...it looks pretty cool. I looked at the floor plan and I'm not sure where the super lives.

Property taxes are pegged to the moment in time when the building last had a major renovation and/or C of O change. The taxes are absolutely market-rate for a townhouse of this size & market value.

Rental properties, especially prewar with a large rent-stabilized/rent-controlled pop., pay way less in taxes.

"Looks like the closing price at 173 East 80th may have captured the attention of the neighbors."

The attention of the broker on the neighboring listing anyway. The neighbors are actually the good citizens of New York. The house is owned by the state dormitory authority and was previously used as the residence for the chancellor of CUNY. Don't know when the chancellor moved on to new digs.

These seem to be fairly close comps, as townhouses go anyway. If the floor plans are accurate, 173 East 80th is at least a foot and a half wider, which could be huge in terms of layout and the feeling of space. 169 East 79th may be built a foot or two deeper, but the 13.5' to 14' interior dimensions could feel tight. I make E80th as something approaching 3,200 sf vs. maybe 2,900 for E79. Of course condition could easily trump the space and layout comparison; they could be $500k apart on required reno for all we know. I don't think the listings or pics provide much evidence of condition for either.

I'm with sledgehammer that taxes seem high. I've seem quite a few similar 3,000-ish sf houses in the high 70s to mid 90s east of Lex that have taxes in the 18-24k range. I don't know much about this, but another 4Gs per month strikes me as really high. $50k per year for maintenance and utilities?

"downtown is getting a bit more interesting." indeed, aboutready

At the new ask 2S is within shouting distance of mid-2004 basis before transaction costs and probably barely breakeven after. The 4N sellers look smart to have taken the offer they got back in the spring. Note that 3S with its ask 35% above 2S is represented by the same broker. I would love to be a fly on the wall hearing the broker defend the valuation advice to the two clients. The potential duplex offering will presumably need the ask trimmed a few hundred K. The premium of the whole over the sum of the parts has risen to $400k from $100k with the latest chop of 2S.

sidelinesitter, i didn't notice the broker connection. wow. that could cause some tension. it's taken quite a bit of time, but finally the non-FiDi BPC areas are showing some real strain. i thought it would occur earlier, due to the high number of people who live in the neighborhoods who are employed in the financial services, but many of those let go early on had decent severance packages. admin made a good point on another thread that in the severance process many focus first on finding a new job, and then only when that seems increasingly impossible do they attend to the other financial concerns. and, of course, many of them have children who are in school, and communities they are engaged in.

ar - and even as you document downtown price movement spreading beyond FiDi and BPC, tenemental documents another leg down in FiDi on the downtown comps thread. 20 Pine and District. Take a look.

sidelinesitter, not to minimize the effects of the FiDi and BPC corrections, they have different inventory issues than the other downtown communities. as i'm interested in the others, that is where i've been focused. but yes, it is tremendously interesting that prices, resale and otherwise, in those trendy downtowwn developments have started (or more than started, depending) their downward spiral. luckily for the owners who are selling, often they got a very low psf price.

i still remember when one of the downtown developments was touted as so successful because it sold so many so quickly, in 2007. and now.

140 Riverside Drive #16K: True 3BR with river views from LR and MBR. Needs a lot of work, but this is a great line in one of the buildings that define the Roth brand.
09/20/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,500,000.
09/25/2007 Price increased by 10% to $2,750,000.
10/25/2007 Price decreased by 5% to $2,625,000.
02/06/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $2,500,000.
02/07/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $2,450,000.
04/04/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $2,395,000.
04/11/2008 Price decreased by 1% to $2,375,000.
06/06/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $2,299,000.
09/25/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $2,249,000.
11/25/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $2,150,000.
02/27/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/18/2009 Sale recorded for $1,825,000.

W81...5K is now in contract...I wonder what the elevation/condition trade-off equation is going to be here?

137 riverside dr 11DE

04/17/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $3,895,000.
10/16/2008 Corcoran Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $3,495,000.
03/19/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $2,895,000.
04/23/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/22/2009 Listing sold.
06/22/2009 Sale recorded for $2,460,000.

15% off final list and darn near the $1000/ sq ft threshold.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392909-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

I guess the message is...don't be shy about low-balling.

Walterh7: A lot of brokers will still give you the hairy eyeball if you offer substantially below ask, but the listing agent for that 137 RSD sale definitely isn't one of them. BTW, that's a fun apartment. I saw it when Corcoran had the listing at $3.895MM. I questioned the price, and got the aforementioned hairy eyeball.

Here's another eyecatching lowball - this time in Chelsea: 40 West 15th Street #6A
03/17/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,195,000.
09/04/2008 Listing entered contract.
10/21/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
10/21/2008 Price decreased by 18% to $1,795,000.
10/22/2008 Price increased by 3% to $1,850,000.
10/24/2008 Delisted temporarily.
12/05/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
12/05/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,795,000.
02/04/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,695,000.
02/10/2009 Listing is no longer available.
02/17/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
04/15/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/23/2009 Sale recorded for $1,300,000.
Sellers who have seen deals fall through seem to be likely capitulators.

More successful "lowballs", on a couple of Carnegie Hill listings that had already cut deeply:

8 East 96th Street #9C
09/09/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $2,850,000.
12/03/2008 Price decreased by 16% to $2,395,000.
03/05/2009 Listing entered contract.
05/18/2009 Sale recorded for $1,800,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/347795-coop-8-east-96th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

11 East 86th Street #10B
09/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,999,000.
10/10/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,895,000.
11/14/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,795,000.
02/04/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,695,000.
03/03/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $1,500,000.
03/14/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/04/2009 Sale recorded for $1,200,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/346355-coop-11-east-86th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

From the Celebity Sales Department: Leroy Neiman celebrated his 88th birthday by adding an estate combo to his diverse holdings at Hotel Des Artistes. The original combined asking price was $1.75MM, which eventually dropped to $1.37MM. Neiman paid $1.1MM.
1 West 67th #2W
10/18/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $885,000.
12/19/2008 Delisted temporarily.
12/29/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
03/28/2009 Price decreased by 21% to $695,000.
04/03/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/15/2009 Sale recorded for $558,000.
1 West 67th #209
10/18/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $865,000.
12/19/2008 Delisted temporarily.
12/29/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
03/27/2009 Price decreased by 22% to $675,000.
04/03/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/15/2009 Sale recorded for $542,000.

29 East 22nd Street #3N. 2BR/2BA loft, ~1600 sq.ft.
04/30/2008 Listed with Warburg at $1,850,000.
05/30/2008 Price decreased to $1,750,000.
07/14/2008 Price decreased to $1,690,000.
10/24/2008 Price decreased to $1,595,000.
12/07/2008 Price decreased to $1,495,000.
02/20/2009 Price decreased to $1,395,000.
03/01/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/18/2009 Sale recorded for $1,150,000.
Warburg does not appear to have posted this listing on Streeteasy. Not sure why.
http://www.warburgrealty.com/property/573185

1120 Park Avenue #18C: Large Carnegie Hill seven with big, L-shaped terrace. Zoned for PS6.
09/22/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $4,950,000.
10/14/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $4,500,000.
01/29/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $3,950,000.
03/18/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/24/2009 Sale recorded for $3,075,000.
Difficult to comp this one because of the outdoor space, and it probably needs a fair amount of work. Still a striking sale price.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350890-coop-1120-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

West81st, hats off for finding these great low balls. I'm feeling ever more firmly that being bold is the way to go when making an offer.

59 John Street #PH2 1,612 sq.ft. 2BR/2.5BA plus 1,592 sq.ft. terrace.
11/01/2005 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,550,000.
10/12/2007 Listing is no longer available.
11/07/2007 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
02/08/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $2,400,000.
02/09/2008 Price decreased by 0% to $2,395,000.
05/04/2008 Delisted temporarily.
06/08/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
06/08/2008 Price increased by 0% to $2,399,000.
07/10/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $2,195,000.
09/12/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $1,995,000.
01/14/2009 Price decreased by 20% to $1,600,000.
02/17/2009 Price decreased by 2% to $1,575,000.
03/22/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/24/2009 Sale recorded for $1,350,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/5461-condo-59-john-street-financial-district-new-york

Total sponsor capitulation on the last unsold unit. The listing said, "Make an Offer And Let’s Make A Deal!" And so they did.

Clearly, March 2009 was a dark time for sellers. No way to know whether it was a market bottom, but a lot of the March deals that closed in June are truly jaw-dropping.

West81st, amazing find. I don't know a thing about the building, but that is a fine example of savvy negotiating and finding the right targets. Thanks.

bjw2103: To make it more amazing, #PH1 (slightly bigger apartment, much smaller terrace) sold for full ask, $2.4MM, in 2007. At that point, the sponsor was still asking $2.55MM for PH2, which probably wasn't that far above what the market would bear, considering where #PH1 sold. But by the time they got serious about cutting the price a year ago, it was too late.

West81st, I saw that. I hope that extra $1m is chump-change to them, but I sure don't envy them. What a find.

These are incredible, West81st. To bad the lower end of the market spectrum is not experiencing declines of this magnitude. These are all pretty fantastic properties.

lowballs ===> soon to be "market"..... who laughed when I said 50% down, no prob :) .... get your popcorn... the market ain't turning anytime soon. heck just go sailing around the world in a J160....

50 Warren St. 3rd Floor: An ambitious Tribeca resale that wound up at a 2003-2004 level.
02/16/2005 Previous sale recorded for $3,500,000
02/23/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $5,250,000.
02/24/2008 Price increased by 5% to $5,500,000.
10/24/2008 Delisted temporarily.
11/03/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $4,900,000.
12/02/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $4,750,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $4,500,000.
01/12/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $4,000,000.
02/17/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $3,800,000.
02/18/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $3,750,000.
03/28/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/23/2009 Sale recorded for $3,000,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/50-warren-street-new_york

67 nice idea...just back from a j35 trip...

565 Park Avenue PHA/12E: Double whammy of high maintenance and a deal that fell through.
11/11/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $4,800,000.
11/13/2008 Price decreased by 19% to $3,900,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $3,250,000.
03/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
03/24/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
03/26/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $3,000,000.
04/15/2009 Price decreased by 18% to $2,450,000.
05/17/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/19/2009 Sale recorded for $2,050,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/565-park-avenue-manhattan

285 Central Park West #PHN: a champion chopper returns with a bang.
04/23/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $16,500,000.
05/10/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $14,500,000.
08/22/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
09/02/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $12,999,000.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $11,700,000.
11/18/2008 Price decreased by 15% to $9,900,000.
07/01/2009 Price decreased by 27% to $7,250,000.

It seems that "unique" properties have taken a particular beating, partly because they were hard to price initially (and therefore tended to be overpriced), and partly because they can't find buyers now.

"It seems that "unique" properties have taken a particular beating"

I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but we learned the hard way that it's easy to overvalue "white elephant" properties even with great comps. Vanilla is so much easier.

Amazing stuff West81st. Would you mind sharing how you get such timely updates? As an insider, I have my searches set for hourly updates yet generally receive them three maybe four times during the course of a normal work day; nothing before 9am / after 6pm. Is it that you are doing a manual refresh on streeteasy or tapping into an alternate feed?

wow! Ive been looking at that elephant for well over a year. Thats some chop. Obviously the 16.5 number was ridiculously aspirational to start off with. The problem with this one is you need someone to fall in love with that library and want to pay for it, obviosly no one has. So it becomes another expensive penthouse with fews that no one wants to pay for.
I would expect this to sell relatively soon with this latest chop. It appears the owners are getting pretty serious. Too bad they were so greedy initially. The greed cost them millions.

20 West 77th #7B closed 37.6% off original ask, 13.5% off final ask.
09/09/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,595,000.
10/21/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,495,000.
01/12/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $1,280,000.
01/29/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,150,000.
02/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
04/19/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
04/28/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/26/2009 Sale recorded for $995,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/347717-coop-20-west-77th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/Scripts/DocSearch.dll/Detail?Doc_ID=2009070100228001

Looks like 285 CPN #PHN is inching up again:

StreetEasy History
04/23/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $16,500,000.
05/10/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $14,500,000.
08/22/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
09/02/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $12,999,000.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $11,700,000.
11/18/2008 Price decreased by 15% to $9,900,000.
07/02/2009 Price decreased by 27% to $7,250,000.
07/03/2009 Price increased by 7% to $7,750,000.
07/06/2009 Price increased by 2% to $7,900,000.

I wonder what the strategy is here.

1165 Park Avenue #15C
03/31/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $4,750,000.
05/08/2008 Listing entered contract.
05/30/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
08/09/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $4,595,000.
10/10/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $4,250,000.
12/06/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $3,995,000.
02/10/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $3,795,000.
03/02/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $3,495,000.
04/09/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/30/2009 Sale recorded for $2,800,000.
41% below original ask, 20% below final ask, and another example of a seller undone by a peak deal that failed. By being off the market for just a few weeks, this listing missed the last spring of the boom.

Chopping aside, that's a big, high-floor Carnegie Hill eight, in a very nice building, with no evident condition issues, for $2.8MM.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211308-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
The maintenance is over $4K, but on such a high floor in that location, it's about what you expect.

2400 sq ft for $2,800,000 on a high floor Park ave 8 with plenty of light and no condition problems. Sounds like the times they are a changin!

whoa...this 1165 sale is watershed...here we go!!

Ubottom: It looks that way. Two caveats:

1) It was an April contract, and the "green shoots" enthusiasts would say that was around the bottom.

2) #15C was in direct competition with #14C, which might not affect value, but it sure speeds up price discovery.

W81....."2) #15C was in direct competition with #14C, which might not affect value, but it sure speeds up price discovery."

And price discovery is an odd thing. It can happen in a very 'smooth' manner, or it can be a "stair step" manner with new information arriving incrementally. The biggest indicator of a durable price level is an expansion in volume.

By the way, what happened to 14C? I don't see it listed or in contract.

Remember -- Prime is always a safe bet. It is the AAA credit of the real estate market.

1165 is not super prime anymore. A little high up.

20 West 77th Street 7B closed at $995,000.
What are the people in 4B smoking?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/387900-coop-20-west-77th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

They are minus a half bath and three floors lower, but priced the same as final ask on 7B.

I don't think they are smoking anything. You bid 850k, and you probably own it.

fascinating price chops! i expect the low to mid mkt to be impacted by these comps with a lag of 6-12 months. nice to see 2000 prices coming along.

2000 prices? Where do you see that, admin?

"1165 is not super prime anymore." Says who and why? Was it ever? And what caused it's fall from grace, a certain decline in prices?

Carnegie, that's a bizarre statement. Prime is prime unless something (crime, people living on the street, new middle school opens on the block) changes. If it's just that it's now easier to afford something further down the block, that's not a change in prime, that's a change in prices. Lower is less "prime" by those standards as well.

ar, scratch 'anymore'. Not as prime as for example 1105 I meant to say. It's a little high up even for Carnegie Hill. By the way, coudn't find 14C any longer nor any same line sales in 1165. Do you have anything on that?

west81, to your point about April contract and "green shots", i would point out that S&P 500 is back at April levels as of today ...

1165 is pretty damn close to top prime -- since when is 91 and Park not prime? 1185 is a fantastic building and is slightly further north.

1185 is clearly a better building than 1165 (on 92nd Street). Curious: Does someone have comps of previous same line sales?

there are better and worse 8's on park on carnegie hill

whatever

this apt is down appx 35% from the 06/07 peak

seller is smart

we'll see much worse in this thread shortly

green shoots are shot...mark my words

ubottom, that is exactly my point: How do you now it's down 35%? I can't find same line comps.

1105 sold in the beginning of 08 at app. $3.77mm. So comparing 1165 to 1105 that would be 25% down. So can you please back up the down 35% number?

in early 07, my version of the peak, this apt would have attracted a bidding war before there was time for the ad to appear in the times--it would have traded > 4mm

pre 7/07, quality hi floor 8's like this in B+/A- Carnegie Hill bldgs were rarely available...when available they would trade instantly at anything close current market prices---buyers were a dime a dozen---listings were precious

re the peak: serious systemic economic problems were very apparent to anyone who reads the papers by aug/sept of 07...the spring buying season of 07 was where the bulk of peak trades took place..

what's most incredible to me now is the abundant supply of quality apts which, like this one, would have barely hit the market before trading only two years ago

look out below!!! mark my words...if you are a seller, price right to sell fast...or be the next

chhhopppppeeerrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!

I think you are overly dramatic but let's talk in a few months.

so now the debate has evolved to whether or not prime Park Avenue is down only 25% vs. 35%? I still think the majority of the higher end of the market (i.e. people who own apartments that they considered to be worth north of $3 million) are in complete denial of what is really happening. Many, many of these people don't "need" to sell; where it will get interesting is when we reach the tipping point with this group catching on.

cc, as long as you don't need to sell, it doesn't matter. As I said before, I have quite a few WS friends that feel more comfortable now. They are not going to sell their 7/8s any time soon. If you would have talked to them 4/5 months ago, their outlook was much more somber. So I don't buy into your theory of tipping point when they catch on. These are family apts and kids go to school nearby. If they don't have to sell, they won't.

92nd and park and that building are both prime. Have been for decades. Still are

Let me throw in a wild card to this discussion: lots of the top buildings allow NO FINANCING at all, rather than only 50% financing to 70% financing. So a number of banks developed products where they lent on Coop in those buildings without getting the loans approved by the Coop Board or getting a Recognition Agreement, etc. In fact, the IRS even allows a tax deduction on the mortgage interest for these loans, as long as the building has a no financing policy (in other words, if you take one of these loans, but your building allows financing and you just don't feel like going thru the board, it's personal loan as far as the IRS is concerned).

Why do I bring this up? Because you may be soon finding cases of foreclosures (or distress sales) in buildings which don't allow financing before you do in buildings which allow 50% financing because the 50% financing buildings actually limited the financing to 50%, but once you went outside the system: all bets are off. Some people got a significant amount of financing on these "off the books" loans; that is to say, a much higher percentage than if they had gotten a loan which was looked at by a tough Coop Board.

Just some food for thought.

Give that man a long cigar (30yrs)! you hit it right on the nail. There were ways around financing limits on coops and it wouldn't surprise me if these loans are what's causing the higher end to deflate quicker on a % basis than under $1mm market.

carnegie: I think i said said the same thing: they don't need to sell. on the other hand, who wants to be the idiot left at the party when the music stops?

Carnegie, let me posit this. 90% of the families who live the park avenue/central park west/fifth avenue/west end avenue lifestyle including nannies private schools and second homes with the primary breadwinner in finance or big law either have their homes on the market, aren't sleeping well at all, or are extraordinarily lucky. The other 10% are really rich and this isnt affecting them. Hence prices in the mid/high-end are getting slaughtered and the Hamptons are even worse. This dynamic IMO hasnt changed one whit in the last 4-5 months.

i would say its more like 75% but that is a quibble. where are you carnegie? lucky, really rich or sleepless?

Columbia, that's a nice thought about Carnegie Hill/Central Park West area and I wish it were true. Prices are definitely dropping (I am focused solely on Carnegie Hill as a buyer and looking for a 3 bedroom with more than 2000 sq feet) but there is hardly panic except in some extreme circumstances. The confidence of sellers seems to be eroding slowly...and if I had to guess, the late fall might see a shift down, assuming the stock market doesn't rally (which it won't). People in big law or finance are still making money -- there's just less of them it seems. Bottom line is that high end apts in at least Carnegie Hill -- $3 million and up -- are not getting 'slaughtered.' Yet.

Woops, I meant to direct my comments towards bf.

no one is suggesting a slaughter or a panic. it's what a VC first described to me years ago as the death of a thousand cuts. as he said at the time (and it took me many years to get it), better to get slaughtered and move on than suffer the death of a thousand cuts.

Viet Cong or Venture capitalist... or is there a difference?

lousleater... have patience... here have some of my popcorn.... I know how this movie ends..... we just have to get thru a few more scenes...

I don't agree that 75% or even 90% of these owners can't sleep at night. I have many banker friends that paid down their mortgage years ago. Keep in mind not everyone bought in the last 2-3 years. Many bought for well under $3mm and with a couple of bonuses you were able to pay off the mortgage. I think this is wishful thinking on your part. Wait until the banks start reporting earnings. My feeling is it won't be too shabby. What is most telling for me that we recently had a huge group outing in an expensive restaurant (haven't seen that in 2 plus years) and MDs in my bank were sat down for some bonus conversations.

There's no "wishing" involved. Plenty of people will go about their lives and enjoy the summer etc etc... and when it's time to sell the apt, they'll get 50% of 2007 prices, then 60% and then 70% (I'm only talking the really crazy high end $4MM + at peak)... then they'll move on etc etc etc... and their dream home in Aspen will be off by 90%, so net net "this one family" is a happy Brady Bunch.... but there will be others that's more like Jon/Kate +8.... IMEO (in my esteemed opinion)....

cc: "no one is suggesting a slaughter or a panic"

Is that so? Well, no one except bfgross, whose previous post ("Hence prices in the mid/high-end are getting slaughtered") you had just finished basically agreeing with when lousleater called bullsh*t on you.

carnegie is the only one making any sense tonight. This appears to reflect the fact that carnegie is the only one with any actual insight on the topic being discussed (whether 90%/75% of prime UES/UWS Wall Street/biglaw types are or are not teetering on the financial brink)

Sidelinesitter:I didnt say anyone was teetering on the financial brink, nor did I use the word "panic" in my post. Ive worked on Wall Street a long time, and I know tons of people in hedge funds, banks, brokers, VC and PE firms, as well as big law. I think I have a pretty good sense of what is going on out there. In my book, a 35% drop is a slaughter. You cant seriously tell me that a very high floor good condition eight at 1105 Park avenue and 92nd street closing for $2.8 million is not a huge drop from peak. You can use whatever adjective you want. As W81st as often pointed out, its the estate sales and forced sales that tell you where the market is, and for the middle/upper end it is generally not pretty at all. There are always exceptions. It is true that some people paid off mortgages long ago and are not even beginning to feel anything-yet. Those would be the ones I referred to as extraordinarily lucky. Most of the rest are not at all in that situation. Carnegie: What you fail to understand is that it's not the situation people are in RIGHT NOW that matters as much (except of course if they have lost their job), it is their view of future propects and earnings power in light of the changes in finance and law that have occurred the past eighteen months. Anyone who lives the lifestyle I am talking about needs seven figures to EXIST in Manhattan (again nannies, second homes, private schools, vacations etc), otherwise you start to draw down on savings pretty darn quickly, whether the mortgage on your apartment is paid off or not. Those people arent stupid, they will move if their financial security is threatened by a lifestyle that can no longer be maintained on a run-rate basis for more than a year or two. Oh yeah, have we discussed the tax burden that is about to hit us all in our fair city and state. Do you really think taxes wont go up? Just keep the popcorn handy, this is going to get very interesting over the next coupee years.....

sorry 1165 Park my mistake

All the silliness about 90% of people (minus an "extraordinarily lucky" few) with assumed high cost lifestyles having their homes on the market and not sleeping at night implies a precarious financial situation. I don't really care whether you used the same words that I used to paraphrase your hyperbole. And why would so many people allegedly have their places (a.k.a., the roof over their family's head) on the market - an assertion belied by the actual number of places on the market in those prime areas, by the way - if they were not under duress? Oops, I said another word that you didn't use. Sorry, didn't mean to imply that you thought anyone was under duress.

So are apartment prices is this segment getting slaughtered vs. peak? Yup, pretty much, led by estates setting the price on the margin. And for someone who bought in the last few years - let's say 2005 and especially 2006-07 through early 2008 - that will matter a lot unless they are more than extraordinarily lucky. But what is turnover in the super-prime locations that we are talking about here - a couple of apartments per building per year? For most owners, prices down 35% from peak means lost paper wealth that they (thought they) had for a few years and now don't. Five years ago they were living in their apartment, then for a few years they were living in their paper wealth and now they are living in their apartment again. I'd agree that there is a negative wealth effect from this development, but it's a second order impact. I see fatigue and disgruntlement among friends and colleagues - it ain't fun on Wall Street - but I really don't see sell-the-apartment-before-it-falls-more-and-ride-it-out-in-a-rental fear. I have no doubt there are cases, probably quite a few, but it's also a huge city with a mind-boggling (my mind anyway) number of people who made a lot of money for a fairly long time. I don't think it took "extraordinary luck" to come through the 2004-07 boom with some good coin stashed away, and I know many more people who are still sitting on a pile of dough that, while less or even much less than it used to be, is still pretty nice by any reasonable standard. The trajectory of wealth accumulation for most of them is shot to hell, which gets to why there is no bid for these prime apartments until prices are down 30 or 40% and why it may stay that way for a good while, but again I don't see people panicking and bailing out en masse.

Sidelinesitter: I actually think we are a lot closer in our thinking than you probably do.
Inventory is much higher than it was a year ago, significantly so by Manhattan standards. At the high end as well as the lower end.
Fatigue and disgruntlement eventually lead to panic if the situation doesnt improve for a great number of people. Panic in real estate is not exactly like selling stocks. You cant just hit a bid until there is one. First inventory rises, then you see some eye-poppingly low sales, and the process continues until prices come down to where there are buyers or the situation improves enough so inventory is taken off the market or absorbed. Can you doubt that this has already been happening? What about the past 5 days, weeks or months gives you comfort that it wont continue to the downside? I see absolutely no change in dynamic here, except that most recently, as the stock market had a big dead-cat rally, some early falling knife-catchers decided now was the time to buy those new low low prices. What about the situation in Wall St finance jobs or Big law has changed recently. In my opinion, nothing at all. Thebad news just continues. Oh, and what do you think the impact of higher taxes will be on RE values? Will it increase the value of real estate in the city or decrease it?

All banks and law firms are not equal. In the last 10 or so years, they were more equal than before. Now they are rapidly becoming less so again. Those who have been secure for years and are still so are sleeping fine, probably in classic somethings. Those who have recently done well, and just closed on new development units (I know quite a few, actually) aren't sleeping so well at all. Those who lost their jobs, or who work in very tenuous environments (know quite a few of those, as well), regardless of whether or not they own, also aren't sleeping so well. I'm not sure how I feel about the bankers going out to celebrate bonus time, frankly I think they should be obliged to return all profits from selling government debt or refinancing mortages to the Treasury. It will be interesting to see how well they are able to do over the next few years, particularly if the government quits providing free money.

For s&g's do an internet search of prescription sleep aids and anti-anxiety/depression drugs.

90% of the families who live the park avenue/central park west/fifth avenue/west end avenue lifestyle including nannies private schools and second homes with the primary breadwinner in finance or big law either
1)have their homes on the market,
2)aren't sleeping well at all, or
3) are extraordinarily lucky.

I wonder what the percentages are of 2) and 3), because 1) is less than 20%. And i think I'm on the high side with that figure.

30_yrs, lots of younger people in big law and finance are nowhere near those locations. but they also fit into categories 1, 2 and 3. from harlem to tribeca, and beyond, people bought more than they can now afford.

We do like to portend doom. Just looking at co-ops, the 120,000+ Manhattan owners aren't yet bailing in apocalyptic numbers. There're ~5,800 on the market per SE. I don't know how that 5% compares with "normal" times, never having seen "normal".

If we throw in condos, I'd say 30yrs is right in speculating that 20$ is on the high side.

All you bulls out there, what do you think it means when the second home/vacation markets are completely dead?
IS that a good sign or a bad sign for Manhattan?

there is still this remarkable assumption that the world revolves around nyc finance.

"What is most telling for me that we recently had a huge group outing in an expensive restaurant (haven't seen that in 2 plus years) and MDs in my bank were sat down for some bonus conversations."

really?

what is most telling to me is that anecdotally everyone that I talk to who works outside of nyc (or washington) is at a point of numbness regarding the ongoing declines in their businesses. the publically stated unemployment numbers are positively sickening. we are starting to see the meltdown of the municapalities across the country.

and in nyc we're thrilled to be going out for expensive dinners?

"All you bulls out there..." bfg, i think you're on the wrong thread. Go look for a steveF thread or an ericho75 thread if you want bulls. ar, NWT, 30yrs, what do you think about being addressed at "you bulls"? Pretty comical, no?

bfg - speaking for myself, I'm not disputing that prime Manhattan co-ops have fallen dramatically, in fact probably more than any other identifiable segment of the market. Further, I have no doubt that they will fall further. My response was to loose logic and hyperbole, not market trend. On the size of 30yrs' group 1), above, I'd go with something more like 5%.

ar - welcome back from vaca. Agree completely that the younger ws/biglaw buyer, many in new dev condos after being priced out of the prime uptown co-op market, are more likely candidates for forced sale and not sleeping at night status. Also note that these owners will almost always be more levered (let's say 75-90%) than the prime co-op buyer (average maybe 50% b/c of board restrictions).

924 West End Avenue #34: Classic seven in one of the best UUWS buildings. 33% off original list no longer qualifies as a champion price-chopper, but this one seems notable because the descent has been so rapid and because the initial price was in line with comps on a per-square-foot basis.
02/02/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by CBHK at $2,250,000.
02/16/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $1,950,000.
03/10/2009 Listing is no longer available.
04/08/2009 Re-listed by CBHK.
04/08/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,750,000.
05/06/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,650,000.
06/08/2009 Listing is no longer available.
06/05/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,650,000.
07/09/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,499,000.
By the way, the shift from CBHK to Corcoran was related to the agent switching firms when CBHK shut down.

A little perspective never hurt.

NWT - The number is actually closer to 4300 when you exclude listings already in contract. Meaning 1/4 of the total coop listings in Manhattan are in contract. Hardly speaks to the excruciating gloom coming from many here. Yes, sickening losses are being experienced by some who bought recently and HAD to sell, for the majority though this isn't the case.