chasing the market down: our favorite price choppers

924WE is a curious case, when you consider that 111 (larger 7, higher floor) is in contract, last ask 2.2mish. Does this mean that the gap between good & inferior lines in one building is increasing?

this whole conversation is just hilarious to me. i have never understood the concept of 'has to sell' or 'doesn't have to sell.' obviously the vast majority of apartments at any given time are not for sale. if you aren't selling your apartment then it should not matter what price you could hypothetically get for it if you did put it on the market. this is true when the market soars, and when it crashes.

but there is a natural and inexorable supply of apartments provided by death, divorce, and debt. this happens no matter how far prices plummet, and it is those sales that ultimately determine the prices. $2.8 million is the going rate for a nice classic 8 in a good building on park avenue and 91st. just because someone else in the line 'doesn't have to sell' doesn't mean that her apartment isn't also now worth $2.8 million.

happy.... please.. what's not to get? Losses are locked-in only by those that bought at or near peak and have to sell now. Nobody is making the claim that this hasn't devalued the rest.

This isn't exactly a chop... it's a pro-active listing that spectacularly undercuts the other--and smaller--listing in the same building [80s-era boutique condo, UES]:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/432564-condo-304-east-65th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

3 bedrooms, 3 baths, 1650 sq ft at 1.695M

versus

2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1170 sq ft (they must be counting the balcony, cuz those so-called "2" bedrooms are more like a junior 4...tiny) at 1.795M. No wonder it's been on the market for 167 days now, LOL.

" i have never understood the concept of 'has to sell' or 'doesn't have to sell. ... but there is a natural and inexorable supply of apartments provided by death, divorce, and debt. this happens no matter how far prices plummet, and it is those sales that ultimately determine the prices."

happy, you can mend that lack of understanding by learning about leverage and understanding the role that the value of collateral plays when credit use is widespread. the 3 Ds is true but incomplete knowledge (kind of "real estate is local"). both cliches are very outdated when it comes to the biggest credit fueled housing bubble ever.

sidelinesitter: "ar, NWT, 30yrs, what do you think about being addressed at "you bulls"? Pretty comical, no?"

I like to be contrary, so fine by me. Not in the game, aside from mourning my lost paper profit.

"what is most telling to me is that anecdotally everyone that I talk to who works outside of nyc (or washington) is at a point of numbness regarding the ongoing declines in their businesses. the publically stated unemployment numbers are positively sickening. we are starting to see the meltdown of the municapalities across the country."

I don't know who you are talking to IN NYC, but everyone I talk to in what used to be called "cash businesses" are in about the same position. Almost "deer in the headlights" bad.

"30_yrs, lots of younger people in big law and finance are nowhere near those locations. but they also fit into categories 1, 2 and 3. from harlem to tribeca, and beyond, people bought more than they can now afford."

I don't disagree. I don't even disagree with bfgross on the issue of how bad things are in terms of the economy, etc. But it *looked* to me like he was trying to posit that some HUGE percentage of people in the finance industry CURRENTLY had their apartments on the market, and I don't believe THAT to be true. So, as is my usual proclivity, I'm nitpicking what I think is a misstatement of fact, in this case because I think if some huge percentage of any of these people had ther units on the market we'd be seeing a LOT more listing than we are (especially of certain types) and we already would be seeing things being much worse than they are (not that I don't think we will get to where he says, i just think he is projecting the future to now). But I also see things getting significantly better confidence-wise among Wall Streeters about their financial futures - and the announcements of various bonuses for this year to come I think are a big part of this. I think that as a result, not nearly the amount of these people are putting on the market currently. I just don't see those kinds of numbers - now.

"ar, NWT, 30yrs, what do you think about being addressed at "you bulls"? Pretty comical, no?"

I think IF anyone addressed me as "you bulls", they haven't read my posts or listened to me talk for the past several years.

"But I also see things getting significantly better confidence-wise among Wall Streeters about their financial futures"

me too, but kind of wishful thinking while in the trenches. hoping "a tsunami is not coming, it was just a hurricane"

Oh, I hope it's clear I agree, but what we're talking about is what actions these people are currently taking, so it doesn't matter if they are wrong in their thinking or not, what matters is IF this is what they are thinking and doing as a result.

66 East 93rd: A big Carnegie Hill townhouse with celebrity provenance and overly ambitious pricing.
05/20/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Garfield at $13,500,000.
07/03/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $12,000,000.
12/02/2008 Price decreased by 29% to $8,500,000.
04/29/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $7,450,000.
06/26/2009 Sale recorded for $6,500,000.

534 Hudson St. #5B: Three bedrooms, three baths, seven price cuts.
07/29/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $4,250,000.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $3,950,000.
10/29/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $3,750,000.
11/18/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $3,500,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $3,350,000.
01/30/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $2,950,000.
02/17/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $2,750,000.
03/09/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $2,500,000.
06/10/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/09/2009 Sale recorded for $2,225,000.

130 East 94th Street #9B: Classic five, 2BR/2BA, converts easily to 3BR.
11/08/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,895,000.
12/07/2007 Listing is no longer available.
02/26/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
02/26/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,795,000.
04/22/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,695,000.
05/30/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $1,575,000.
08/28/2008 Listing is no longer available.
09/17/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,495,000.
10/17/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,425,000.
12/20/2008 Delisted temporarily.
01/11/2009 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
02/05/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,295,000.
03/11/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,195,000.
03/12/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,095,000.
05/08/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/13/2009 Sale recorded for $985,000.
The original asking price was loopy, and the maintenance is a little higher than average, but comps on lower floors would have justified a price in the mid-$1MM range.

this 94 st prop is yet another example of idotic pricing resulting in a cheaper sale than would have been--if this apt had been priced "on the screws" in 11/07 (appx 1.3-1.4) for a five in this bldg, it would have trade quickly and save the seller a lotta dough--more evidence that, unlees you are in the middle of a strong uptrend and there is no obvious news to subvert trend, you price at current market--to hang this thing well above market in 11/07, when there was obvious potential for trouble, was an expensive tormenting mistake--

In This Building
135 East 83rd Street more »
New York, NY 10028

Sales listings: 2 active, 5 in contract and 3 previous
Rentals listings: 2 previous
Local Schools
Schools zoned for this address:
JHS 167 Robert F Wagner (6-8)
PS 6 Lillie D. Blake (K-5)

StreetEasy History
03/14/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $3,250,000.
05/28/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $2,990,000.
07/08/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $2,900,000.
09/13/2008 Listing entered contract.
11/22/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
11/22/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $2,500,000.
12/12/2008 Price decreased by 10% to $2,250,000.
01/29/2009 Listing entered contract.
03/10/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
Sold for 1,825,000.
works out to about $800/sf

Apologies to mrsbuffet if she already took her victory lap, but she was right in her original post.

Sale recorded for $1,450,000.

"this 94 st prop is yet another example of idotic pricing resulting in a cheaper sale than would have been--if this apt had been priced "on the screws" in 11/07 (appx 1.3-1.4) for a five in this bldg, it would have trade quickly and save the seller a lotta dough--more evidence that, unlees you are in the middle of a strong uptrend and there is no obvious news to subvert trend, you price at current market--to hang this thing well above market in 11/07, when there was obvious potential for trouble, was an expensive tormenting mistake--"

I disagree: you go further than that. You "get out ahead of this thing" and price it LOWER. If the market is actually higher, you'll still get what you deserve. I'm pretty sure Noah proved that with a sale in the same area recently??

205 East 63rd Street #19A: Another victim of high maintenance and unrealistic expectations.
06/07/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,675,000.
09/25/2007 Price decreased by 10% to $1,500,000.
10/24/2007 Listing is no longer available.
11/16/2007 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
12/20/2007 Price decreased by 3% to $1,450,000.
06/13/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $1,350,000.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,299,000.
04/28/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,200,000.
05/08/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,100,000.
05/31/2009 Listing is no longer available.
06/18/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
06/25/2009 Listing is no longer available.
06/27/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,100,000.
07/22/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $999,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/432791-coop-205-east-63rd-street-lenox-hill-new-york

West81st, and 20A is on the market for $799,000. 19A states good estate condition, 20A seems to have a recent kitchen from what i can see. Very high maintenance for the units, but convertibles 3s at less than a million.

aboutready,

there is a big difference between 19A and 20A: a large terrace, which 20A lacks. Does it justify 200k? Hard to say. But they are not comparable units.

HR, didn't see that. i'm not an outdoor space person, and i frequently overlook them. estate condition vs. terrace. wonder who would be the target buyer here? someone with a decent income but not a tremendous amount of cash who needs a convertible three?

1 West 72nd Street #66
06/26/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $24,000,000.
10/29/2008 Price decreased by 19% to $19,500,000.
04/16/2009 Price decreased by 26% to $14,500,000.
07/24/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $12,500,000.
Mmmmmm.... Dakota.....

This one hurts. This is a 50% down building. I also heard the board requires 4x sale price liquid assets (can anyone verify?) Add in that the place really needs some work done (new kitchen at least) and they are looking for a very rare buyer. According to the history, it has gone to contract 3 times and now is back on the market again.

Owner is now underwater by at least $125k...and the water is pretty deep.

20 East 74th St, 7G
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/335967-coop-20-east-74th-street-upper-east-side-new-york
04/04/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $785,000
08/07/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $985,000.
08/09/2007 Listing is no longer available.
08/21/2007 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
10/13/2007 Price decreased by 1% to $975,000.
11/01/2007 Price decreased by 3% to $945,000.
11/29/2007 Price decreased by 5% to $895,000.
01/16/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $850,000.
02/07/2008 Listing is no longer available.
02/27/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
05/08/2008 Listing entered contract.
06/30/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
08/08/2008 Currently Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $850,000.
08/14/2008 Listing is no longer available.
10/30/2008 Listing entered contract.
11/25/2008 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $795,000.
02/13/2009 Listing is no longer available.
02/21/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
04/17/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $695,000.
05/14/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/20/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property. Last priced at $695,000.

My apologies if this apartment has been discussed before. It's a nice chopper with a bit of backstory:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/279137-coop-375-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

05/21/2004 Purchased for $977,000
06/06/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,450,000.
07/28/2008 Delisted temporarily.
01/06/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
01/06/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,299,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,250,000.
03/10/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,200,000.
05/06/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,099,000.
07/18/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $1,049,000.

What makes this a bit more entertaining than the usual delusional pricing tale is that the owners were featured in a 2004 article on the hot NYC market. The Owners, having lost a few bidding wars, went all out on this place. Then in true self-delusion (foreshadowing the insane listing price 4 years later), they convince themselves that they got a "good value" because the seller felt sorry for them! You can't make this stuff up.

http://www.braddockandpurcell.com/about_news_nyp_win.htm

Wow. That's a fantastic snapshot of the bubble craziness. Great post!

I don't think this latest chop has been discussed here:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/413193-townhouse-333-kent-avenue-williamsburg-brooklyn

STREETEASY HISTORY
05/29/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $12,800,000.
11/12/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $9,850,000.
03/25/2009
Corcoran Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $6,750,000.
04/16/2009
Corcoran Listing is no longer available.
05/14/2009
Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $5,950,000.
05/14/2009
Also Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $5,950,000.
07/08/2009
Price decreased by 17% to $4,955,000.

That's going from $12.8M to just under $5M in a little over a year. (A 61% price chop, I believe.)

I don't recall seeing other chops quite as severe as this one.

A candidate, at least, for the price-chopping Hall of Shame.

701,
Even at it's current price this little RE artifact of fore gone hippness will have trouble finding a new owner. Nothing like the charm of living across from abandoned factories in the middle of nowhere Where the dream is, some day, they demolish the domino sugar factory, releasing who knows what into the immediate breathable air, to be followed by an outragious construction project (way way in the future).
5MM for that kind of privalige??? How about when it's time to refinish the WB bridge and your RE is the recipient of every piece of crap scraped off. Other than that I think it's a fine property.
This IS the one to watch for all time super-duper price chopper.

snaps to 701

Like many recent sales, 530 East 72nd #12C qualifies as a chopper, a successful "lowball", evidence of market movement, and an example of the game-changing potential of estate sales. The transaction seems to fit best here, since price-chopping is its most spectacular attribute. [BTW, I think the intertwining of Corcoran and Elliman reflects a broker switching agencies in April.]

05/13/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,650,000.
06/24/2008 Price decreased by 17% to $2,195,000.
08/20/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $1,950,000.
10/15/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $1,695,000.
12/08/2008 Listing entered contract.
01/28/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
03/02/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,595,000.
04/02/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,495,000.
04/03/2009 Temporarily off the market.
04/15/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
05/03/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/20/2009 Sale recorded for $1,220,000.

The sale price was 54% below the original ask and 18% below the final ask. Market movement is harder to measure, especially because #12C appears to be a unique apartment. The peak comp is #14A - a wreck, with less space and inferior views - which sold quickly for $1.799M in 2007. #11B, which was nicely renovated but much smaller than #12C, sold for $1.345MM in early 2009.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/530-east-72-street-new_york

One further thought on 530 East 72nd: On another thread, poster 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO suggested that there might be some bifurcation of the market between estate sales and "normal" listings, because many buyers don't want to buy from estates, and many sellers treat estates as diluted comps. My observation has been different: that serious buyers will consider estates (though they may shy away from true wrecks, whether the owner has a pulse or not); and serious sellers understand that a comp is a comp - with appropriate adjustments for condition, but not for a dead owner per se.

The statement had to do with apartment condition, not who the seller was. I think that was pretty obvious.

305 w86th, 1D, both a chopper and a comp waiting to happen.

06/21/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $589,000.
06/14/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Citi-Habitats at $730,000.
12/31/2008 Citi-Habitats Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $647,000.
06/29/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $525,000.
07/31/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $499,000.

Time to show off a little price chopping at 530 East 72nd Street.
The music to this price chop is 'ol Blue Eyes singing 'Mac the Knife'...........
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/179597-coop-530-east-72nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
02/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $5,995,000.
05/13/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $5,295,000.
07/06/2008 Delisted temporarily.
10/08/2008 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $4,590,000.
12/22/2008 Delisted temporarily.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/391172-coop-530-east-72nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
03/11/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $2,995,000.
06/23/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $2,495,000.

And He keeps them PEARLY white..............................................

30rs: Sorry for the misunderstanding, and thanks for clarifying. When you referred to "the tsuris of buying one of those" [i.e. estates], I thought you meant not just the condition problems that many dead owners leave behind, but also the hassle of negotiating with quarrelsome heirs through multiple intermediaries.

At any rate, I don't see the bifurcation actually happening between wrecks and "normal" listings. What I see instead is a continuum, a pricing curve along which buyers discount rationally (well, more or less rationally) for condition. The discount for an uninhabitable wreck is often steep - and it should be, especially in buildings that tightly restrict renovation. Nobody wants to buy that dream apartment, then wait eighteen months to move in. Even so, it all looks like one curve to me. In fact, as you suggested, some wreck-buyers bid too close to non-wreck comps - another indication that wrecks and non-wrecks are not separate markets.

Returning to the subject of price-chopping, I think the relevant attribute of estates for the purposes of this discussion is not condition, but rather the economics, timing and psychology of estate liquidation. A deceased owner - especially one who leaves a mess - seems to be much more strongly correlated with pricing flexibility than poor property condition alone. That's ironic, since the owner's heartbeat has no direct bearing on value, while condition does.

For one final irony, do you know where I'm seeing the least flexibility? Wrecks that were bought during the boom by owners who now can't afford to renovate them, and whose equity would be wiped out by a sale at current market levels. Can't call it a trend, since I only have a few data points, but there does seem to be a pattern, and it makes intuitive sense.

After cutting by 49%, the much-discussed maisonette at 1165 Park Avenue sparked a modest bidding war. Well, a skirmish, really. The history remains impressive.
06/13/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,750,000.
08/04/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $2,495,000.
11/03/2008 Listing is no longer available.
12/09/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
12/09/2008 Price decreased by 20% to $1,995,000.
12/12/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,995,000.
01/02/2009 Listing is no longer available.
01/11/2009 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
02/18/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,800,000.
03/20/2009 Price decreased by 22% to $1,400,000.
04/18/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/27/2009 Sale recorded for $1,427,000.

"For one final irony, do you know where I'm seeing the least flexibility? Wrecks that were bought during the boom by owners who now can't afford to renovate them, and whose equity would be wiped out by a sale at current market levels. Can't call it a trend, since I only have a few data points, but there does seem to be a pattern, and it makes intuitive sense."

But isn't this totally intuitive?

Also. with the bifurcation I was alluding to, you couldn't possibly see it.... yet. I guess I REALLY wasn't clear with my meaning: what I'm talking about is a bifurcation of buyers, with the second group not buying ANYTHING since they won't buy wrecks and the price of non-wrecks hasn't dropped "enough", and - as I think you agree with me - the wrecks which are being sold may actually be "fools gold" in that while they are selling at numbers significantly off "last sales", once you add in the cost of renovations, they may not be all that much of a discount off of recent good/mint condition comps.

So, my (apparently ill made)point is that there very well be a secondary market of buyers out there who will buy these same (not exactly the same, the one upstairs, the one downstairs) units at prices similar to the prices which the current buyers of the poor condition ("estate sales") units are. The premise being the current buyers of the aforementioned units may have jumped the gun, buying thinking they are getting great bargains, but the real bargains are down the road, and the second set of buyer who's strike price is lower and/or won't buy wrecks will be seen some time in the future.

30yrs: Yes, we agree.

Here's one for Mimi, Joedavis, and the other Harlem townhouse-watchers:
9 West 123rd St.
04/07/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $3,195,000.
05/15/2007 Price decreased by 6% to $2,995,000.
07/17/2007 Listing is no longer available.
03/31/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
03/31/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $2,600,000.
04/16/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $2,500,000.
06/06/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $2,300,000.
07/24/2008 Delisted temporarily.
08/29/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
12/13/2008 Listing is no longer available.
02/19/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
02/19/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $1,995,000.
06/06/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/21/2009 Sale closed for $1,850,000.
Looks like a beautiful property.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/84898-townhouse-9-west-123rd-street-central-harlem-new-york

Hard to feel too sorry for a guy who bought for $45,000 and sold for $1,850,000

Let's see... $180 divided by 2, multiplied by $500.... OK, you're right. But there wasn't exactly a land rush around Mount Morris Park in 1995. And he appears to have put serious money into the place - unless those mortgages are cash-outs, which is always possible.

My guess is the mortgages weren't truly cash-outs, but were renovation loans. He bought the property from the city, probably abandoned, so I would think a lot of the way the building looks today is due to his improvements. So, I doubt his entire cost was $45K. So I was being somewhat hyperbolic (can that word be used that way?), But even if he sat on it as crap from 1995 till 2005 (assuming those loans were used to do the renovation) he still made a $45K investment in 1995, used borrowed money to upgrade and walked away with about $1.2 million profit. Note he just got a new CofO in 2009, which would indicate some recent substantial work?

30: the second set of bifurcated buyer describes me to a T. Don't want to buy a wreck and don't want to buy someone else's investment loss, so I wait for the downturn to catch up to reality. Just can't believe it is taking so long.

give it another 6-9 months. just watched larry summers on meet the press. its all guesswork---they clearly don't have a clue; not saying that anyone else would either. how he can say that cash for clunkers worked is just beyond me.

"how he can say that cash for clunkers worked is just beyond me."

Even taking as given that there is no one on SE with a greater ability (so as not to say obsession) than you with seeing the most negative side imaginable in any fact or situation, how you can suggest that it DIDN'T work is just beyond me. Whether a one-time bump in sales that will no doubt dissipate as soon as the program ends has any lasting impact on the auto sector or any much relevance for the broader economy is another question, but if the purpose of the program was to get people into auto dealers to buy new cars using a government handout disguised as a "green"/fleet fuel economy program, then it worked. How much more of a stampede would you need in order to understand this?

Cash for Clunkers didn't work?? Haha. I own Ford shares. Thank you Cash for clunkers. Thank you President Obama. Thank you Larry Summers.

thanks for the kind words.

1. there was a modest bump in sales--currently reported as 10%.
2. reports on mileage gains are conflicting.
3. a lot of reports on dealers/consumers confused and unhappy

but...where are we going with all this? of course, people will buy a car if they are given 20-25% of the value by the government. but, so what? are we going to stop at $3 billion? so, now we pay people to buy homes and buy cars. where do you think the money is coming from?

"thanks for the kind words." I aim to please. Any time you need a few more just let me know.

I think the best thing about cash for clunkers is that the average person taking advantage of this program has a higher fico score than the normal buyer -- in the low 700's . These are conservative, hardworking people who have resisted our peculiar cultural credo that enough is never enough and you need to buy and buy and buy to support the american dream (or er, corporations). At a time when we are still paying high bonus' to the people on wall street who are needed to get us out of this mess, and angelo mozillo is living in his mansion rather than sharing a cell with madoff --- I am glad that finally someone who deserves some help has finally gotten it. And they have something to teach us -- there is nothing wrong with holding on to a car for 10 - 15 years if you take care of it.

apt23... you CAN'T BE SERIOUS? They were selling H2 this past summer.... that's a clunker?... my image of a clunker trader is the baffoon RE broker who bought a Ford Expedition in 2002 took BUSH gignormous "TRUCK" tax incentive drove around and pushed little Priuses around for the last 6-7 years and is saying fuck that $100 weekly gas bill is killing me and my income sucks and the girls don't want to be seen in 7 yo cars.... oh oh oh what's this?

CASH for CLUNKERS! WHOOOOOOT......

There we go again, yep yepper put his finger in the electric socket and posted on streeteasy, "oh oh oh what's this? CASH for CLUNKERS! WHOOOOOOT...... "

LMAO... what's more pathetic, I'm on here 24/7 or you're on here 24/7 to attack me? LMAO... get a life shrimpie....

Do you know, you secretly want to make out with me?

I wouldn't assume you would cheat on your wife. Or should I assume you are that type too?

ps - I've noticed a lot of LMAOs lately. Does all that laughing your ass off help with your hemorrhoids? er, I mean hemorrhoidz

Hey west81st, I saw 9 west 123rd. It was an extraordinary house. Here's another big chop (50%) in another beautifully restored gem:
02/19/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $2,100,000.
04/04/2008
Price decreased by 4% to $2,025,000.
05/06/2008
Price decreased by 1% to $1,995,000.
07/22/2008
Price decreased by 4% to $1,925,000.
09/02/2008
Price decreased by 7% to $1,799,000.
11/10/2008
Price decreased by 12% to $1,575,000.
01/05/2009
Price decreased by 18% to $1,295,000.
02/27/2009
Price decreased by 3% to $1,250,000.
07/20/2009
Listing entered contract.
07/29/2009
Listing sold.

mimi,
It sounds like you're talking about 48 Hamilton Terrace.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/183867-house-48-hamilton-terrace-hamilton-heights-new-york

It COULD become someone's gem, but upon inspection you would see that the house is far, far from being "beautiful restored." Some basic cosmetic was done prior to listing. The longtime owner has lived out of state for years and the property needs some significant renovation which explains the price.

Most of the Harlem townhouses, if they sell, will sell significantly lower than asking prices. But the odds are that for a long, long time, they just won't sell.

Hi HDLC, yes, that's the address, I forgot to post it, sorry about that. I see that it needed work but the historical detail was remarkable. The last asking price was 50%. Who knows what was the actual selling price...it does look like a price chopper to me...

530 East 72nd, 12C: Wow.

We saw it last fall, listed at $1.695MM, with the broker making it very clear that the price was negotiable. Nonetheless, $1.22MM is shocking to me.

West 81st, thanks for posting it.

905 WEA. I find this interesting. Someone with more patience than I have might be kind enough to look up the mortgage situation in ACRIS. I wonder if this was sponsor financing. That's a lot of space for the price, although a risky purchase nonetheless, i'd think.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/218320-condop-905-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

04/17/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $2,975,000.
02/27/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/23/2009 Sale recorded for $1,740,000.
07/29/2009 Listing sold.

AR: ACRIS shows no recorded mortgage at this point.

With regard to the riskiness of the purchase, let's maintain a little perspective. $804/SF for a large, mint-renovated 7.5-room condo on 104th and West End is a new step down for the neighborhood. The same apartment was probably $11-1200/SF not too long ago. Is there still downside risk, given the state of the condo conversion at 905 WEA? Sure; in theory, it could go to $400/SF. But it won't go to zero.

west81st, if you're certain you have no need to sell anytime in the nearish future, and you're willing to risk sponsor and common charge issues (i know of none, but), and you think you can refinance the mortgage when the sponsor financing expires, then this is a hell of a deal.

i still think there is risk, but the risk i'm concerned about isn't largely pricing. i did find this very interesting. there are four bedrooms, and the fourth isn't even tiny. three baths. in a well-established family neighborhood (I love the location). all for $1.74mm.

The Prime
333 West 14th Street PH
New York, NY 10014

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368148-condo-333-west-14th-street-chelsea-new-york

02/28/2007
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $9,500,000.
04/07/2007
Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available.
07/02/2008
Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $9,500,000.
07/03/2008
Delisted temporarily by Brown Harris Stevens.
12/01/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by RP Miller at $7,500,000.
07/12/2009
Price decreased by 21% to $5,900,000.

I feel like an attention whore by doing this but this amazing price chop must be given it's due. This, my SE friends, was once the home of Frank Sinatra. It is on the market and has already experienced a whopping 58% cut in price!!! If that's not a price chopper nothing is.
Time to show off a little price chopping at 530 East 72nd Street.
The music to this price chop is 'ol Blue Eyes singing 'Mac the Knife'...........
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/179597-coop-530-east-72nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
02/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $5,995,000.
05/13/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $5,295,000.
07/06/2008 Delisted temporarily.
10/08/2008 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $4,590,000.
12/22/2008 Delisted temporarily.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/391172-coop-530-east-72nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
03/11/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $2,995,000.
06/23/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $2,495,000.

And He keeps them PEARLY white..............................................

"If I can...LOSE IT there/I'll lose it...ANYwhere..."

Mrs. Astor's apartment may wind up in a class of its own.
778 Park Avenue #1516
05/07/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $46,000,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 26% to $34,000,000.
02/05/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $29,000,000.
08/04/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $24,900,000.

45 Sutton Place South #19N
01/13/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Stribling at $2,795,000.
02/03/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $2,595,000.
02/19/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $2,195,000.
03/03/2009 Price decreased by 18% to $1,799,000.
05/21/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/29/2009 Sale recorded for $1,575,000.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/374785-coop-45-sutton-place-south-19n-sutton-place-new-york

About 905 West End:

Does the publication of this sale effectively set 800psf as the new price for apartments in this building? There are several other units in the same line, for instance, asking more like 1250psf. Curious what you think.

HR: If you ask Halstead that question, I'm sure the answer will be, "No, the circumstances of those initial sales were unique. The sponsor needed contracts to declare the plan effective before the AG's deadline. Now that pressure is off. So pay up, or keep happily renting." #74 was probably also a cash sale; probably not a big factor in the price, but it's a consideration.

If you're asking for opinions, though, my answer would be yes, the initial sales probably do set the market, within 10% or so.

I probably should have been more careful about offering $700/SF eight months ago. I almost had to change my screen name to "West104th".

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6100-905-west-end-avenue

west81st,

i agree. i think this is the new price. they list several apartments as 'contract signed' right now and i'd be very curious to know the prices on those contracts--assuming they actually exist. if they are much higher than the unit that just closed there may be some angry buyers out there. but i doubt they are.

how would you compare the product here to, say, the 3rd floor classic six at 755 west end? that looks like a perfectly decent classic six, albeit on a low floor, asking 1.3.

Sorry, I meant #72 above, not #74.

HR: The "4" line on low floors at 905 WEA would be a reasonable comp for #3C at 755. The "2" line would be comparable to #8A at 755. I'd give 905 the slight edge on location, but 755 has the advantage of being an established coop. I think the ceilings are higher at 905, and of course the apartments for sale are nicely (if blandly) renovated. That's a significant difference from #3C, which is in fair condition. I also don't like the layout of the "C" line, but that's personal taste.

With regard to where the nine existing contract might close, you will likely find the discounts off black-book prices to be pretty consistent for the seven or eight "outsiders". One or two insiders may have gotten a better deal, depending on whether their leases were secure.

Quite a slide here. And a nice lowball execution especially considering that 7E closed at 800K

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349483-coop-440-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

09/17/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,295,000.
11/26/2008 Price decreased by 19% to $1,049,000.
01/11/2009 Listing is no longer available.
01/23/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
02/04/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $995,000.
02/28/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $899,000.
04/04/2009 Listing entered contract.
08/05/2009 Sale recorded at $775,000

I hated the kitchen in 10E. maybe the market felt the same way.

is it safe to say that these people are disillusion given that comp:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/376364-coop-425-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/396547-coop-425-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

this one has no doorman and much higher maintenance.

30yrs: Was that the kitchen with the weird raised floor? I walked in there twice, and tripped over it both times. That said, I think the big difference in views and light make #10E the better property.

ILoveMuayThai: I agree about 425. The family on the fourth floor can afford their illusions. I don't know much about #3B.

This doesn't have any real comps, so I put it here, but it works for comp purposes as well. True floor plan porn, although i don't like the layout (combo) and it seems like it's on steroids.

High floor G and H line units sold in mid-2005 for $2,176,000 and $3,427,000, respectively. An F unit sold mid-2004 for $923,000. For a combined total of $6,626,000. Not counting costs of combining. I guess it's not always that easy to find a buyer who needs 6000 sf.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375618-coop-425-east-58th-street-sutton-place-new-york
01/16/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $7,900,000.
04/02/2009 Price decreased by 25% to $5,900,000.
05/13/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/30/2009 Listing sold.
07/30/2009 Sale recorded for $5,000,000.

131 East 66th St. 4-5A
08/19/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $8,000,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 15% to $6,800,000.
01/07/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $5,750,000.
01/30/2009 Price decreased by 14% to $4,950,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $4,400,000.
04/14/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/10/2009 Sale recorded for $3,400,000.
As the listing says, "THIS IS AN ESTATE SALE AND SELLERS ARE VERY SERIOUS!"
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/343221-coop-131-east-66th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

10-11A is in contract, last ask $5.25MM. The prior-sale comp, from 2005, has an interesting provenance:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/23908

That's incredible, W81. The best deals in this market are going to go to people with large reserves of cash.

10023: Not sure I follow. The buyers borrowed, though there's no way to know how much.

30yrs: Just four days after you posted your theory of bifurcation, we have a good example at 250 West 94th:
--------Recorded Sales-------------|--------Previous Listings----------
08/06/2009 #10C $1,375,000 - 1.4% |↓ $1,395,000 2 beds 2 baths
06/15/2009 #15C $1,387,500 -10.4% | . $1,549,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,650 ft²

#15C was an heirless estate wreck. #10C was in decent condition. After #15C went to contract in February, #10C went off-market, then came back, then reduced, and finally sold for less than #15C.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/250-west-94-street-manhattan

Re: the recent sales at 250 W. 94th -- we had looked at all 3 of the "C" units when all were still available and I really disagree that 10C was in "decent" condition. Also an estate sale, 10C had been very nicely cleaned up to show, unlike 15C which was in chaos. But 10C still needed to be completely re-wired -- I doubt it had enough electricity to run a dishwasher while keeping a light on -- and both baths and kitchens had to be completely replaced (we had an architect and an electrician look at all 3 C units so we had some help in assessing things).

And to say it "finally sold for less" is factually true but a bit disingenuous -- it sold for $12,500 less (less than 1%) -- about what it must have cost to remove all the junk and debris from 15C. Having seen both apartments what's notable to me is that they essentially sold for the same price for the same apartment needing the same degree of renovation and 15C got no premium for being 5 floors higher.

I only mention all this because if we're trying to get insight into what's going on in this crazy market, depending how you look at things, you can draw entirely different conclusions.

NextEra: You are absolutely right. Thank you for correcting me. The worst of it is, I saw #10C, and described it at the time as "just a decluttered version of #15C with refinished floors, a nice paint job and an undivided dining room."

923 Fifth Avenue #18A
05/09/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $13,125,000.
11/26/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $22,500,000.
02/14/2008 Listing is no longer available.
03/21/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
04/23/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $19,750,000.
08/10/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/26/2008 Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
09/26/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $18,950,000.
12/23/2008 Price decreased by 12% to $16,750,000.
06/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
08/03/2009 Sale recorded for $12,800,000.

Can $12.8MM be considered a lowball? Anyway, the final price was 24% below the final ask and 43% below the original ask. To some extent, this trade is Bear Stearns fallout, though the apartment was on the market long before the firm collapsed.

310 West 133rd Street: Distinctively renovated, 25-foot-wide, 5,000 sq.ft. carriage house. Finally sold after three years of effort for less than 37% of the original asking price.

05/05/2006 Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $2,900,000.
10/13/2006 Price decreased by 5% to $2,750,000.
03/13/2007 Price decreased by 2% to $2,695,000.
06/27/2007 Price decreased by 4% to $2,595,000.
07/30/2007 Listing is no longer available.
03/15/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $2,000,000.
06/18/2008 Listing entered contract.
08/31/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
08/31/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,900,000.
10/10/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $1,695,000.
12/06/2008 Delisted temporarily.
07/10/2009 Sale recorded for $1,060,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/310-west-133-street-manhattan

re 18A at 923 5th: since $12.8M is just a tad below the 2006 price for the same unit, I wonder if significant work was done to the apt. by the 2006 buyer.

If not, then $12.8 seems like a great price for the seller in 2009.

Interesting that there's a flip tax (or whatever it's called in a condo) at 923 Fifth. The buyer coughs up in return for the condo waiving its right of first refusal. $90-something thousand for 18A.

West81st, that carriage house's decline is just shocking. I'm not familiar with that area, but would guess that being so far north made it less appealing. Getting gobsmacked by the crash last fall couldn't have helped much.

I keep remembering your pearl of wisdom: if you have to eat shit, take big bites. These folks didn't and ate a lot more of the stuff as a result.

Here I am night after night waiting on the corner.
On the corner...waiting for my fix...is he gonna show.
The relief............West81st
With my fix...
How the stuff tonight?
2.9MM Ask...Closed for $1,060,000....................................................................
I feel the heat in my veins...
Oh the colors...
good stuff.

Tanned, rested and ready, a stalwart veteran takes another turn at bat...... with a higher price:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/444325-coop-760-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

06/27/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $970,000
06/20/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,150,000.
09/02/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,125,000.
09/25/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,095,000.
10/22/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,045,000.
12/02/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $999,000.
02/19/2009 Listing is no longer available.
02/23/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $925,000.
08/12/2009 Currently Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $959,000.

falco, i like your happy poetry.

i have no idea if this was grossly overpriced to begin with, and the chop is "only" 29%, but it was done all at once and with such speed!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/436926-townhouse-69-west-83rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york
07/13/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $14,000,000.
08/12/2009 Price decreased by 29% to $10,000,000.

883 St. Nicholas Avenue: This three-family townhouse in Hamilton Heights took the long road to the closing table. The seller still did reasonably well; she bought the house from GE Capital in 1998.
03/23/2006 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,795,000.
06/26/2006 Price decreased by 8% to $1,649,000.
08/17/2006 Price decreased by 5% to $1,569,000.
08/31/2006 Listing is no longer available.
09/19/2006 Re-listed by Corcoran.
10/25/2006 Listing is no longer available.
05/18/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,569,000.
06/08/2007 Listing is no longer available.
06/14/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Harlem Homes at $1,569,000.
11/12/2007 Listing is no longer available.
11/11/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,395,000.
02/11/2009 Price decreased by 9% to $1,275,000.
04/28/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/08/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
07/25/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/29/2009 Sale closed for $1,040,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/883-st-nicholas-avenue-manhattan

"she bought the house from GE Capital in 1998. "

for how much?

I have no idea where to put this one. It was originally listed for $2MM and eventually sold for $1.1MM, so I figure it belongs here.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/231211-coop-400-east-85th-street-yorkville-new-york

Something about this listing always seemed off, and still does. Closed in February, but just showed up as closed now. Plus, the broker's listing still appears to be current, asking $1.5MM. And the price does appear to be way low the apartment.

Does appear to be way too low for the apartment.

2400 Square foot apartment and a kitchen that's 7 x 13, something smells fishy in Denmark. Maybe the 2 in 2400 should be a 1.

Re: 400 E 85th. It can't be 1400 -- look at the floor plan. It's a duplex with a small kitchen but lots of bedrooms.

In the ad at http://www.redacinc.net/brokerwebsite3/code/sales_detail.asp?listing_id=497530, size is listed at 2400 in one place and 2000 in another. Either way, this combo of two jr-4s has a bad layout.

355 Central Park West: Townhouse between 95th and 96th. Purchased in late 2006 for $4.75MM by a partnership that renovated it, then tried to flip it for a huge profit.
04/25/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $11,750,000.
07/17/2007 Listing is no longer available.
11/10/2007 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
12/01/2008 Listing is no longer available.
12/02/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $9,495,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 16% to $7,995,000.
04/01/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $6,995,000.
05/07/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $6,595,000.
06/11/2009 Listing is no longer available.
08/06/2009 Sale closed for $6,200,000.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/house/355-central-park-west-manhattan

At what point to you think they went underwater? (cash-cash, not underwater lien wise)

From the pics, I always thought that renovation looked god-awful. In person, the exterior is a little sad looking...can't quite put my finger on it. I can't believe someone paid that much.