Wall Street layoffs could surge past 200,000

does anyone know of a single industry that is hiring (i.e., net hires are positive) in nyc right now?

Drug dealers and bookies

your forgetting loan sharks

I am in the staffing industry and this last quarter is going to be very, very slow. Firms are trying to get a gauge on headcount and what they will do going forward. Since it is the end of the year, most firms will just stand-pat at this point.

The good news (there is a little) is that not all firms have been hit and a number of large players are talking about openings coming in December. Now, that has to actually happen, but the fact they are mentioning it to me is a good sign.

I will definitely let you know whatever I hear on the jobs front.

i think debt consolidators and bankruptcy law firms are hiring..oh, and divorce law firms, and umm, liquor stores.

Distressed and restructuring practices although even for them the environment is too erratic to understand.

I figure the last bastion of hope is education and healthcare. Crain's noted they are the only two big ones left that haven't had major drops. Though the government is gonna crimp a huge bunch of the former, and will probably cause issues for the latter as well...

Funeral directors?

Special_K, on a serious note, education would be the field to be in whenever the economy gets bad. A sursurprising number of people go back to school when they lose jobs, and schools need additional staff to accommodate them.

"i think debt consolidators and bankruptcy law firms are hiring..oh, and divorce law firms"

I think not, based on the front page article in the Oct. 15 NY Law Journal.

Law firms that do bankruptcy do other types of work as well, and it's a net loss because they're firing litigators, securitization people, IP .............

Law firms that are heavily corporate without any flexibility may be in for some firings/lack of hiring/reduced partner profits. Some of them quite a lot. A few firms are more litigation based, and they should do fine eventually. Most companies have a couple of years before they need to file suit, and many are having difficulty even assessing who owes whom what and why and what was and wasn't said, etc. IP is doing generally well. Restructuring. If the credit crunch ever thaws M&A may pick up. The CDO/SIV work was concentrated in a surprisingly few firms (although, obviously, MBS was more wide spread, as was IPO work which is now dead, and we won't even mention real estate, particularly commercial. Can't imagine T&E is doing so well, either). It depends upon the firm. Their won't be much hiring of newbies (although summer programs are still extant), but it won't be the bloodbath of Wall Street.

nyc10022
about 3 hours ago
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I figure the last bastion of hope is education and healthcare.

Correct, the U.S. has not yet awoken to the education bubble and so we continue to subsidize people going to University of Phoenix Online, Kaplan University and British Sounding Name College.

30 years ago, you could be an office worker, secretary, clerk, bookkeeper with no more than attendance at Katherine Gibbs school after taking typing, bookkeeping, and steno in high school. Today, those who are hiring are looking for college no matter what.

Is there really a benefit to going to BMCC?

Maybe I am in a bubble about to burst but I work in biotech/IP law and we're doing well. If you're an experienced person in biotech or consulting, willing to travel, I think you'll do just fine. I just returned from a stink in Dubai. The food and lodging could not have been better and since my return head hunters have been calling. It may dry up in the coming months, and will post updates, but seems quite sustainable at the moment.

And yet, a very talented and hardworking attorney friend just got laid off. Even before my partner who works in finance (one of the two new bank holding companies). I think the law firms are going to be letting a lot of people go. So many of them are completely dependent upon the financial sector.

This is getting really depressing...

I hope that confidence will return to the markets over the next few months as credit becomes more available and hopefully no other big financials go under. The problem is that especially as far as NY is concerned, the damage is done and these people will be let go not matter what the future looks like. We're in for a gloomy first half at least...

Big law firms in NYC have shrunk new hires and are letting people go like there's no tomorrow.

Probably "eah" is not employed in such a context, because if s/he were a biotech/intellectual propperty attorney within a larger law firm, s/he should have seen his/her colleagues go. Either way, the subarea "eah" is in, too, WILL inevitably see a decline soon enough.

"A few firms are more litigation based, and they should do fine eventually."

Read the Oct 15, '08 New York Law Journal, front page artice. It is litigation that is taking the killing.

I think the really challenging situation will be in 3-6 months, once all the severance has run out.

Btw, Citi instituted a 'no new or replacement hiring, period' policy yesterday, and I strongly doubt hiring across the street will pick up any time soon.

Gun shops are probably hiring.

I guess "Wall Street" means different things to different people, because according to the New York State Department of Labor, there are *fewer* than 200,000 Wall Street jobs.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

That just makes it worse... 40k layoffs is a HUGE chunk... and considering it was 30% of NYC income... ouch, is that going to hurt EVERYTHING in this town...

Wall Street to means banking, financial and select related services. Definitely more than 200K in NYC. Not sure what the DoL stat is referring to. Location?

I would probably not be considered "Wall St." as I worked for a film finance company, but many of the people that invest(ed) in the same deals work(ed) for Wall St. firms. Our segment of the finance world has been decimated, including me losing my job in the near future, and I would estimate that less than 25% of the people that I used to work with on deals from other companies are left standing today. Although we are supposed to be an 'uncorrelated' asset class, it is definitely non-core to investment firms which is perhaps the explanation for the cyclicality (and high beta) in the job market. But back to my point, playing with classification will certainly result in a higher number if you are to include people like me. Perhaps it would make more sense to talk about the percent of losses expected.

The DoL stat is referring to financial service sector jobs that are located in New York City.

Certainly the loss of financial service sector jobs outside of New York City -- say a job loss in Charlotte -- might impact the NYC economy too, I just don't want everyone to read the title of this post and assume that 200,000 of their neighbors are going to get fired and then they can buy an apartment for twenty bucks.

As I understand it, the city's forecast now is for 25% correction in NYC Wall Street (which was typical of both the 1988 and 2001 contractions) with each Wall Street job loss taking out two allied jobs such as restaurant workers -- jaspernonbeliever, for your sake, I hope you don't get hit with that backlash.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

25% correct in jobs number... but, in income number, that could easily be 50%....

Assuming a 25% correction, if you find something you like today and strike a deal at 25% below, did you make a good deal? Or do you wait for asks to drop 25% and strike a deal at 5% below that? The risk of not waiting is that it could be more than 25% but then again, it could be only 20%. (Obviously you can adjust those projections downwards as you see fit.)

We've all talke about finding the place you love and want to be in for many years to come but that aside, what equation makes it right to buy now?

No worries. Our long national nightmare is about to end. The Obama recovery starts very soon.

Hmmm... seems like I misunderstood what 25% you were referring to. Question still stands though (although somewhat irrelevant to this thread!)

lo888, I meant a 25% drop in Wall Street employment.

I think that will make real estate transaction volume drop, buI don't think we'll see a 25% correction in apartment pricing.

How do you know when to buy? I think you never really do, because I don't think you can market-time real estate purchases. You just have to make the decision that you emotionally want to buy, and that it makes financial sense, and then you buy the best available property and hope you'll enjoy it for a long time.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"How do you know when to buy? I think you never really do, because I don't think you can market-time real estate purchases. "

I like Ali and her posts, but not sure I agree with this. You can never time the market perfectly (any market), but I think you benefit a lot from avoiding the extremes - i.e. not buying at the peak, and not selling at the trough. There is enough fundamental data - i.e. historical growth rates, buy vs. rent ratios, RE price to income ratios, etc. to help one spot a peak or a trough.

Buying now still feels much too early, but if you get a great deal, that changes the equation, especially if you love the place and plan to be there for a long time - I agree with Ali there.

In an l-shaped recession, you really don't need to worry about finding the real-estate bottom. It will be around for a while.

Litigation is slow right now. One of my husband's clients told him that they were loathe to sue for losses because they weren't sure who they were interested in acquiring when this all shakes out. Wouldn't do to sue yourself. Companies have a couple of years to commence lawsuits. Law firms always use any opportunity, regardless of profit levels, to trim staff and associates, some firms even partners. Partners always feel pressured by the top few firms to meet top salaries and bonuses, and even the leaders seem to find some joy in reversing those gains.

absolutely.... real estate doesn't bounce. Same intertia that kept it going up for so long, will keep it flat for a while...

The only people telling you to buy are brokers or folks trying to sell you their apartments...