Locker Room Talk
Started by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
So I was in the locker room next to a Halstead broker & an architect who didn't know each other & I don't know them. Here's the conversation: Architect: Market's bad? Halstead: The worst ever. Architect: Me too, no one's building. Halstead: We've seen cycles before. Architect: Yeah. No one's making loans, people are getting laid off. Halstead: Everybody thinks prices are coming down. In the 80's, when interest rates were like 9%. But then of course we're talking about much lower prices. Moral: Disregard brokerbabble. That's what they're saying. Here's what I'm saying: they think it will recover. And it will, once prices fall in line with incomes and rents.
Moral, it is creepy to be in a locker room with Steve who is not only oogling you, but also listening to your conversation.
it sounded like an episode of Seinfeld.
That's exactly what I was thinking, although I wasn't sure if Steve was more like George or Elaine.
"they think it will recover. And it will, once prices fall in line with incomes and rents."
Why wouldn't you expect it to fall to a point where it's much CHEAPER to buy than to rent? That's what happened before.
Ew
lintintin
about 8 hours ago
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That's exactly what I was thinking, although I wasn't sure if Steve was more like George or Elaine.
lowery
about 6 hours ago
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"they think it will recover. And it will, once prices fall in line with incomes and rents."
Why wouldn't you expect it to fall to a point where it's much CHEAPER to buy than to rent? That's what happened before.
ESueCho
about 5 hours ago
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Ew
Patrick_Bateman
1 minute ago
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Gay as fuck.
of all places to overhear, maybe the local Starbucks would have been less creepy
Steve - Not sure I understand the conversation - did the broker agree that prices will fall or does he think it's just a short-term cycle?
Methinks the Patrick_Batement doth protest too much...
I always shower at home. I mean, I go to the gym near my place, why do I need to shower there? And now another reason, nosy dudes near my locker checking my ass and my business.
I love sticking my nose in some guy's business.
Who is this Steve? You know, in my day, if we listened to a locker room conversation we wouldn't advertise it. Of course, we wouldn't advertise our homosexuality, either, not that there's anything wrong with it.
I support lower prices for Manhattan condominiums. Why should only rich people be able to afford to live here? I'd like prices to come down so low that Joe the Plumber could afford to live here.
Why shouldn't Joe be able to afford a place here? He's a good man, works hard, supports his family. But no, prices are so high that Joe is not welcome.
I support a 30% cut in Manhattan real estate prices, and end to these silly green requirements that drive up costs, and a return to time when you could always get your windshield cleaned.
Steve, you're going to give calling the bottom a new meaning.
Wow, what a lot of junior high school babble. Archie Bunker would be proud.
Yes, I was waiting for all the drivel from homophobes and haters. Enlightening. It's a shame that the world has to deal with people like this, but that's the level we're at: high school. Nay, junior high. Nay, elementary school.
I could have lied an said the conversation took place at Starbucks. The two people were standing next to me having the conversation - it could not not be overheard. Has no one ever overheard a conversation at the gym, at Starbucks, on an elevator, in the men's room?
You people are disgusting.
Steve-
Was the broker contending that prices will not fall very much due to the low interest rates?
Steve, never mind the crackers.
Second kgg-these clowns are just pissed because Steve was dead on.
"Was the broker contending that prices will not fall very much due to the low interest rates?"
Are interest rates low?
Steve, stop teasing the creepy, straight guy. We will just ban him from the stevejhx fan club.
You need to spend less time in the steamroom at the Chelsea NYSC...
My friend who is a broker says that things ARE MUCH WORSE than what we see here on streeteasy as she has access to other databases and information. oy!
"Was the broker contending that prices will not fall very much due to the low interest rates?"
What they were contending, if that's the word, is that we're in uncharted territory. Nothing is moving because no one will lend, no one has any money, and sellers haven't gotten it. Interest rates were higher in the 80's but prices were far lower. Wall Street is a mess. It's not good.
"You need to spend less time in the steamroom at the Chelsea NYSC..."
I'll answer a last as*hole - I've never been in a steam room in any gym anywhere, I don't belong to the Chelsea NYSC. Sorry if you don't like the truth of what these people were saying, but trying to insult me to change the topic is a worthless diversion.
you are a gross person
there was no reason to tell everyone about the lockerroom unless you wanted to bait them
I don't get it. Why are people giving steve a hard time because he overheard something in a locker room? What's creepy about that? Can someone please explain this to me?
Hooo, how was it "baiting?" People overhear conversations everywhere. The location could be relevant - it provided context as to why two people who don't know each other are comparing industry notes. You would have to rely on a whole series of homophobic assmuptions/stereotypes to jump to the conclusions posted above.
juiceMan...stevejhx was not creepy..I think everyone's on edge with the economy, obama, etc. Stevejhx adds a great deal to streeteasy and everyone appreciate his input and knowlege.
So back to the subject, why would you not expect prices to drop to where it's cheaper to buy than to rent? I have no prediction, but I could imagine a variety of scenarios, including one in which people become so loathe to buy NYC real estate that prices drop well below the rent-v-buy 1:1 point, especially if mortgage rates do not climb up to where they were in the last NYCRE crash.
Even with falling prices, the difficulty of obtaining appealing financing slows transactions.
So then if appealing financing is the reason for slowing sales volume, decreases in prices aren't necessarily a function of coming into line with people's incomes.
Lowery, not sure what you mean. My point is that the flow of RE transactions depends on a number of things, including price & financing, plus the general economy.
Although prices are falling and becoming more realistic, if financing isn't appealing (ie: rates too high or lenders reluctant to lend or terms & conditions too strict), then falling prices are almost irrelevant, unless it's an all cash transaction.
Another discussion started by steve, about steve, with too much information about steve
This posting reminds me a little of the current presidential election.
One group of people wants to tear someone down.
Another group wants to discuss issues.
dwell, "Although prices are falling and becoming more realistic, if financing isn't appealing (ie: rates too high or lenders reluctant to lend or terms & conditions too strict), then falling prices are almost irrelevant, unless it's an all cash transaction."
Yeah, I think you have it about right. If we were to go to a cash-only market, then what we would have said a year ago would be "affordable" and lamented as the gap between what people can afford and what things cost is not the same. I am following this situation with interest, because I think all bets are off.
At the "right" price, I'm fine with "unappealing" financing. Premium interest rates on jumbo mortgages and higher downpayments. (Admittedly, for some such financing will be simply prohibitive.)
But that price is well below current "indications." Prices simply have to adjust to "unappealing financing."
And, hopefully, several years down the road one will be able to refinance - but no guarantees - so the price has to reflect this.
REITS (commercial real estate) are down almost 44% year-to-date (price-only) largely reflecting "unappealing financing" - in fact, ugly financing. So prices have adjusted accordingly. Residential real estate needs to do the same - and will.
Steve, glad you posted this. A great thing about NYC is the volume of people, the chance conversations you have with strangers, and even the change coversations you overhear. Like the snidbit I overheard a month ago walking up sixth ave..."I liquidated everything. Had to. Called my broker and said sell it all at mkt."
For those ragging on Steve, can't you find something more substantial to criticize him for? He posts every day! Picking on him for saying locker room is beyond childish.
If we go to an all-cash market (which I can't imagine is possible), prices are going to have to drop more than 50%. Most people just don't keep millions and millions in cash with additional millions left over in reserve after closing. This is especially true if Wall Street really loses more than 200,000 jobs with no bonuses in the coming years. No jobs, no bonuses, no mortgages - it's going to be tough to recoup costs on real estate unless incomes in other fields skyrocket.
stevejhx, i see nothing wrong with the lockerroom talk. for god sakes, it's not as if you had heard this in a private bathroom. grow up everybody! it's really interesting to get the Halstead broker talking straight for once in his lifetime. really sad that this profession is honest only in a bathroom though, reminds me of finance. lol.
"unappealing" is not the best choice of word. Meant unavailable &/or unobtainable &/or prohibitive. You may qualify for financing, but you don't want to spend that much $, or you don't qualify at all, or no lenders are lending.
I like the 'over heard in a lockerroom'. We get it from when & where we can, including the can. Keep your eyes & ears open people.
No real issue with the lockerroom, probably a bit of irony however.
"What's creepy about that?"
Homophobes.
"Ignoring comment by ESueCho."
Add one more to the list.
Hi Steve
"Ignoring comment by SueECho."
Boy, this is easy.
And if anybody else wants to criticize "gym talk," yesterday on the STAIR machine I overheard the (very loud) conversation of the guy next to me, who has a long-running conversation at the stair machine with someone else whom I don't know. One of them was to buy a new apartment. He held an open house on Sunday and no one showed up. He doesn't think he could get approved for the new co-op anyhow, since he no longer has sufficient wealth thanks to the collapsing stock market (caused by the implosion of housing, in case you didn't realize). The other fellow mentioned a friend of his who was an alcoholic, missed an AA meeting because he relapsed because he'd lost so much money, had his head smashed against the wall by his lover and got kicked out of the house and has nowhere to do.
So, there has been some talk about an increase in divorces - seems there's also an increase in alcoholism and domestic violence. By all accounts, the property market is frozen and is likely to be for a long time to come. Fortunately, I don't drink very much.
"nowhere to do" = "nowhere to go"
oh good, more enjoyment of others' misery. Thanks steve
Good Lord, what gym is this? Sounds like a horrible episode of Passions or a Chelsea Novella.
"Good Lord, what gym is this? Sounds like a horrible episode of Passions or a Chelsea Novella."
It's the story of Manhattan.
"more enjoyment of others' misery."
Who said I was enjoying it? I'm relating it.
ok, so why is anyone surprised about this conversation?
NEWSFLASH - MARKET'S SOFTENING UP
Frightening that the market, besides wealth loss, has been causing domestic violence, relapses, homelessness (let's hope temporarily) etc. Let's hope this is the exception and not the rule...
Uptown Gal - the market has already softened - based on what I've been hearing, it's rottening... A colleague told me yesterday that she and her husband are putting their apartment back on the market - they had previously listed it and pulled it over the summer to "wait it out" but are now realizing that the situation is pretty grim and are trying to sell now. They are moving to the west coast sometime this upcoming spring, so hopefully it will move.