Bears who hope for job loss so prices go down......

I agree, and have posted openly before, of the sheer joy I will feel at seeing one bedrooms trade in the $250K range (or less).

This is a silly discussion. I don't hope for job losses, but quite frankly, whether I hope for them or not will have no impact whatsoever on whether they will come. I don't sit around hoping for things one way or the other--hoping doesn't make things happen. I analyze information and I act accordingly.

What I really want is the price to drop on the perfect apartment for me (haven't found it yet) and then rebound sharply with full employment and bonuses for all. Love, peace and happiness.

"the sheer joy I will feel at seeing one bedrooms trade in the $250K range (or less)"

there are no words

"there are no words"

Yes there are: deflation.

don't be an ass, weasel-boy

you know eactly what ccdevi meant

it's nice to be nice, so be nice

and the correct word is: schadenfreude

"schadenfreude"

Doubt it. "Realist" would be better. What I said a year ago would happen to real estate and the financial services industry is, in fact ... happening.

There is no joy in it. I have lost money, too. So give it up, Weasel.

Deflation is a very serious thing. Search the discussions to find out the first time I mentioned it. About a year ago.

Who cares when you mentioned whatever? Nobody. Stop deflecting.

"schadenfreude" - malicious pleasure taken from observing the misery of another

like people who HOPE for job losses, so prices go down (read the thread title)

I don't hope for job losses... I don't hope for a bad economy.

But there is a difference between hoping for it, and knowing that something was coming.

"like people who HOPE for job losses, so prices go down (read the thread title)"

I don't read steveF, so I don't know what he wrote. Surely it was sarcastic.

Weasel yourself who hoards gold coins in a safe deposit box (creepy) - what I wrote is deflation. I never took joy of anyone who lost his job. It's happened to me. I've also lost money recently - and I'm one of the few to admit it.

There is a difference between WANTING home prices to go down and seeing that they MUST go down because they are inflated, are not in alignment with rents or incomes. The faster they go down the better it will be for everyone.

You seem to be the type of person who loves it on the way up but not on the way down. It doesn't work that way. I made money on the way up, lost it on the way down. I accept that. You should, as well.

The market will be down 50% or more peak to trough in Manhattan, and it is collapsing very, very quickly.

The blame for job losses goes to the people who mismanaged the economy and encouraged this high price, bubble, cheerleader mentality in the first place. Just because reality has hit your squarely in the face, dont blame the people who warned you that double digit growth was unsustainable. Instead take the time to reflect about your own stupidity and lack of common sense. Once upon a time people use to save for a rainy day, even plan for it and they borrowed money, knowing one day they would have to pay it back and not wait for a government rescue or some other bailout. Your attitudes created, fed and sustained this crash, and fought and fought and fought the truth and even when its beyond the point of being obvious you are still trying to insidiously trash all who were wiser because your shallow little egos are still tied up in paying more and more and more so you can win the fruitless,disgusting little social pissing contests you engage in with your one-dimensional peers. Face it, paying 2 million for a 1 million apartment, doesn't make you a better person. Find some other ways to get you egos stroked.

If you don't realize a 4% cap rate on investment properties is insane after you spend all the time making sure the garbage is taken care off, unseen late night emergency repairs are always taking you away from your family, an occasionally angry tenant decides to trash the fruit of all your hard labor or even threaten your life when you go to collect rent, you're not the financial gurus you think you are.

its not pleasant, but good points, bonzo.

"Once upon a time people use to save for a rainy day"

In the stock market, & it's all gone.

"If you don't realize a 4% cap rate on investment properties is insane...."

Which is why, over time, the out-of-pocket expense for renting and buying is the same. The profit in investment property is somebody pays your principal, not that property prices rise rapidly, because they DON'T.

> "Once upon a time people use to save for a rainy day"
> In the stock market, & it's all gone.

I agree with Bonzo, this isn't the reason.

In the last couple of years, we've had folks assuming as soon as they had income (or not), they should buy an apartment. No "can I afford it", no "what will it take", just panic that you aren't doing it yet. That idea is just bad, bad, bad. Its not only folks buying houses they can't afford, its folks buying places with no vested interest in them. I remember articles about how this poor 24 year old couldn't afford to buy the house she wanted without crazy rates, and then I thought "what fucking 24 year old with no savings and barely any income expects to BUY".

They didn't lose their down payments in the stock market, they never had the down payments. 20 years ago, that actually used to matter.. and it will matter again.

The Irish carpenter.

But I beg to differ - many people keep savings in the stock market, which has not behaved rationally for the past 10 years.

This I agree with: "what fucking 24 year old with no savings and barely any income expects to BUY".

When I was offered a liar's loan, and a loan I knew I couldn't afford, I said no.

But the offers were made.

"Which is why, over time, the out-of-pocket expense for renting and buying is the same. The profit in investment property is somebody pays your principal, not that property prices rise rapidly, because they DON'T."

I am not exactly sure where you are going with this one Stevejhx. But once upon a time, not a vary long time ago, as early as 1999-2000, experienced commercial investors (people who bought in the 70's, 80's and 90's, not newbie investors who were fleeing the dot-com bust and bringing fantasy metrics along with them) in NY and elsewhere expected more than just having principal paid back. It was routine to buy at 8,10 or even 12% cap rates. Paying back principal and having nice cash flow. Commercial property did rise rapidly in NY because you don't find 10, 12 or even 8% cap rates anymore (8...... maybe..... very very rare) If you mean you SHOULD be buying property for cash flow and principal and not massive appreciation, yes you are right. But people did apply fantasy future valuations and paid for them like growth stocks and a bubble is still there.

On to everyone else........

For all the bubble mentality investors on this board. Explain to me how teachers, cops, firefighters are suppose to sustain bubble investment prices, double digit growth when salaries go up 1,2,3 percent a year at best. Beyond the unexpected repairs, crazy tenants, etc. You havent even factored in that landlords, do, yes, in spite of being an uber capitalist myself, do have to some kind of conscience and cant just kick old ladies or families with three children out on to the street to justify higher rent rolls. Working people can't take a decent apartment going from 800 to 1000 to 1200 to 1500 in just 5,6 or 7 years. So for all you who think I as a market pragmatist dont care about ordinary people or job losses, a big FUCK YOU. It's you people who study how big wall street bonuses are going to be your over year and how it correlates to porsche and prada sales that don't care about the middle or lower class and job losses. I actually want my tenants to be pay modest rents and be able to save and actually be able to afford a decent home and move out of my buildings. Please spare me your sudden concern about people's jobs and overall welfare. If wall streeters had spent more time at work and less time worried about the latest fancy restaurants they were going to eat at, they still might have more jobs today.

What - it's creepy to have some of your net worth in gold now? Like I wrote before, I buy one ounce of gold a month, and have done so for a long time. What's creepy about that?

As to your idiotic assertion - "...You seem to be the type of person who loves it on the way up but not on the way down..." - uhhhhh, who DOESN'T that describe? Happily, I'm positioned in an okay way right now (financially speaking), so I'm not all that miserable (compared to some others, I suppose).

"You seem to be the type of person who loves it on the way up but not on the way down..." - uhhhhh, who DOESN'T that describe?"

People who don't expect to be rescued, or people who criticize those of us looking at reality by saying we gloat in others' pain.

Hoarding coins is creepy.

There is no joy in watching people lose jobs...but apartment prices have risen so high that a correction is needed to allow people to once again purchase in manhattan.

"...People who don't expect to be rescued..."

I neither want, nor need, to be 'rescued,' thank you very much.

"...people who criticize those of us looking at reality by saying we gloat in others' pain..."

As the OP wrote "face it bears you can't deny hoping for job losses so you can get your apt cheaper. Especially the ones who post th job loss articles. YOU CAN JUST FEEL THE GLEE." If (and that's an IF) you feel 'glee' at other peoples misfortune, that's the textbook definition of 'schadenfreude.' And there's a world of difference between that, and simply 'describing reality.'

"...Hoarding coins is creepy..."

'Hoarding' - YOUR word. If buying one ounce of gold a month is 'hoarding' and 'creepy' to you, that's your issue, not mine - but don't try to hang that sign around my neck - I'll cut it down.

Ah, malraux: "don't try to hang that sign around my neck - I'll cut it down."

"YOU CAN JUST FEEL THE GLEE."

Here's my answer to you: "don't try to hang that sign around my neck - I'll cut it down."

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me

Oh malraux, I choked on my coke when I read that post.

"YOU CAN JUST FEEL THE GLEE."

Are you sure you meant to type 'coke'? I think you choked on something else.

party like it's 2006!

Coca-cola, malraux. With 4 ice cubes.

"But I beg to differ - many people keep savings in the stock market, which has not behaved rationally for the past 10 years."

You are confusing correlation with causation. In fact, you have causation reversed.

Noone took out shaky loans because their stock market holdings increased. THe 2 years of defaults and foreclosures came BEFORE the stock market decline.

The stock market didn't cause the housing crisis, its the other way around.

"The stock market didn't cause the housing crisis, its the other way around."

I never, ever made that claim. I have always said that the problem was housing. What I said was that many "sideliners" had their "down payments" in the stock market, expecting normal market behavior. That has not occurred. It was in response to this:

"They didn't lose their down payments in the stock market, they never had the down payments. 20 years ago, that actually used to matter.. and it will matter again."

Some people had no down payments - most had at least 10%.