Fed Beige Book Commentary on NYC Housing Prices

There have been widespread signs of weakening in the labor market. A major New York City employment agency, specializing in office jobs, reports that there are now very few job openings, and a large and growing supply of job applicants. Many of the recent job candidates are people let go from entry level management jobs. Hiring by large investment banks remains nearly non-existent; more recently, legal firms, hedge funds and private equity firms have cut back dramatically on hiring.

"over the past two months: prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer"

wow! julia, this is the drop you were looking for!!!!

hey, even carlyle is firing 10% of their workforce. ok, it's only #100 guys in DC, but it's the very first time in the last 20 years. i love their total lack of foresight. they were hiring like crazy during 2008.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/12/03/the-bell-tolls-for-private-equity-carlyle-cuts-10-of-staff/

many hedge funds were also hiring a lot during the 1st part of 2008 in manhattan, i would bet they are or gonna be soon enough firing aggressively.

Ive been saying this real time decline for past 3-5 weeks! Hey, I have no problem publicly saying what no other broker in this industry, besides Doug Heddings, will say.

Very true noah, it seems that Toes seems to be taking up some of the shilling slack though =P

Yes, UD, you have been saying it. And I said it based on my review of prices and what's happening at 350 Bleecker.

Inventory is currently around 9,500, and let's be honest, based on what we've seen from BAC/MER in the past 2 days, and GS and MS and JPM, C, the pain has not even started here in Manhattan.

It's yet to be felt.

Let us remember that based on price-to-rent ratios, PITI, price-to-income ratios, constrained credit, etc., I've been saying for a year that prices would fall 50% from their peak. We're already at 15% to 20%, the desperation hasn't begun and there's all sorts of luxury inventory coming online with absolutely no market at any interest rate.

"Ive been saying this real time decline for past 3-5 weeks! "

okokok no need to get angry. i'll read your blog to receive up-to-date real-time sense of how things are out there. still think that the fact that our money printers went from "it's contained in subprime" to "manhattan is falling apart" is news.

also find puzzling hong kong, shanghai, shenzhen and guangzhou having a severe fall at the same time than nyc. so much for decoupling.