2009: Dow Jones cracks 5000 Level

Bear Market "RALLY" may continue for a week or two. We may test 9000, but the forces of this grand black hole will magnify in 2009. The U.S. "real economy" is slowly starting to collapse as the sequences are unraveling stage after stage.

The immense amount of layoffs, corporate defaults and the next stage of major commercial real estate and credit card meltdowns will start to arrive within the next 3-4months. Wall Street analysts are still overly optimistic and don't understand a "40 year" credit expansion will not be resolved in 18 months.

This is a multi-year crisis, and until the "root" of this crisis is addressed we will go lower. Congress will without a doubt continue to rescue insolvent corporations, but they will only come back for more. A trillion here, a trillion there, the black hole is so immense that until a new international order is adapted the systematic risk will increase.
The deflationary collapse will continue, U.S. interest rates will go to 0% but things will just get worse and worse. We will see greater than 10% unemployment by the end of 2010 and the S&P will greatly contract.
This is the mother of all meltdowns. Nobody will be saved, even those in safe haven T-bills will be sucked in by the forces of thy black hole.

how would T-Bills be sucked in by black hole forces? The only way that works is if the US currency is devalued vs. foreign currencies or in comparison to gold.

by the way, what are your credentials?

VWear, just watch. mark this note.

ok fine
but what are your credentials?

alright, anonymous. That's ok. Where should one put his assets? Gold? Cash?

There is only 1 good, knowledge, and 1 evil, ignorance.

German Govt Bonds. Gold+Agric.

Agriculture meaning what?

Why are you relatively bullish on Germany?

you can buy a agric index, better yet speak with a local farmer and see if you can purchase a percent of his farm at a fixed price.

Assuming deflation, wouldn't U.S. government bonds be a great place to be? Unless you think the U.S. gov't will default?

JohnDoe - that is correct. HimWhoKnows knows not much. If "the deflationary collapse will continue", gold and other commodities make zero sense. Time to move on from this thread.

final end game will be a pop of the last and largest bubble.

pop, then?

HWK is not the only one out there predicting that the dollar will collapse. Last I checked predictions about the future don't exactly qualify as "knowledge," however. You can also buy shares of farm crops right here in NYC through community supported agriculture! An investment you can eat might be the best thing out there next year.

I was betting on 6500 to be the bottom, but after listening to my new idol Peter Schiff, you may be right, 5000 or lower, who knows.
just youtube this guy (Peter Schiff), an extraordinary man

HimWhoKnows NOTHING! The dollar will NEVER collapse. we have a little bump in the road, sure! But next year the dow will be back at 12-15K, ok? Please dollar collapse, this is the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. We have the global reserve of the world and we can do whatever we want. Foreigners have to buy our currency as reserves and therefore we will always be the king.

Please dont listen to a crazy man like Himwhoknows. Please recessions come and go and we'll be out of this one in a couple months.

"Please recessions come and go and we'll be out of this one in a couple months."

If it started 12 months ago, you may be right. When things are flush most people can't see that the economy has peaked. When the hell comes to be paid and we all hit the ground with a thud, most people think the earth will part and the jaws of Hell will open up, instead of realizing that it's already happened and the page is turned. But who knows how long we could be down here in the jaws of Hell? A recovery could start to happen and the crowd wouldn't notice because they'd still be absorbing the shock of having crashed to the sidewalk.

Just saying, things can change very dramatically and very quickly, and it is only in hindsight that someone will appear an oracle. The fallout from the RE bubble has happened very quickly and has surprised a lot of people. There's a lot of room for things to get worse. Or Billy might be right and things will bounce back next week. I am not taking a position in either direction, but I will note that just because we're the USofA doesn't entitle us to a hill of beans, and to pretend that we no longer have to compete to retain our position as the global reserve is absurd.

DOW 5000 and would indicate another 40% chop in NY real estate. At that point, if NY is no longer an attractive financial capital then we could be in for trouble.

As far as our currency losing alot of value would be a bad dream.

"we're not going to be concerned about deficits right now" -President Obama 12-2008.

this thread is absurd. stop trying to read the tea leaves people.

bump.

happyrenter, didn't you tell me a couple of months ago it was unwise of me to be all cash? just funnin' wit ya.

himwhoknows, these posts are just silly. you make some outlandish thread and then let it go into oblivion. if you are directionally correct, you bring it back up to show everyone how smart you think you are. the great thing is that if you're wrong, you can just let the thread sit there in the large pile of failed predictions you have made over time since no one else has the time or care to resurrect these silly posts.

for all your gloom and doom, did you massively short the market? you must have doubled your net worth since this prediction... oh wait, you're all talk... so you didn't benefit at all.

Bumpity-bump.....

Hey, where's HimWhoKnows?

I think HimWhoKnows is just another alias for someone else... who makes more bullish calls.

This way, he can be right both ways.... (like steve)

" these posts are just silly. you make some outlandish thread and then let it go into oblivion. "

Well, more and more of the outlandish calls keep turning out right. I hope he strikes out soon, however. This is getting beyond ugly now.

"Well, more and more of the outlandish calls keep turning out right."

But there are outlandish claims in both directions. Some guy called Dow 30k, too.

Obviously, any major move is going to prove some folks "correct", whether or not their analysis was based on sound fundamentals or just guessing...

"The dollar will NEVER collapse. we have a little bump in the road, sure! But next year the dow will be back at 12-15K, ok? Please dollar collapse, this is the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. We have the global reserve of the world and we can do whatever we want. Foreigners have to buy our currency as reserves and therefore we will always be the king."

Ahhhhhhh... love it. Especially the last sentence. Classic.

Watch and learn people. This is exactly how the lemmings will get taken. And when they get taken, it will be with such severity and swiftness that there won't be any reaction time for them to try and save themselves.

The world knows we caused it, but they also think we'll be the first out. Look at the dollar. Pound now down to 1.36. Thats HUGE.

HWK - German Govt Bonds.

How's that working for you? :)

Don't forget Steve and his China call...

nyc10022 - I think the other troll, counciler, said he was putting his money in Swiss Francs and the Yen. Sure, a country with a manufacturing recession because they sell us stuff we are not buying and a banking country on the verge of a bank run because they shelter money from drug lords and African dictators.

Sorta funny that dollars were probably the best investment out there.

47% gain against the pound!

Speaking of African dictators, just remember who to thank the next time you run into some asshole with a "change you can believe in" button. This is change alright. For the first time in our history the is more upside to being homeless than working on wall street. It all started when we stopped using words like "Bums". The minute you sanitize the name for something, you legitimize it and make it permanent. Maybe the Guardian Angels will start patrolling the subways again. Curtis, we need you.

"Speaking of African dictators, just remember who to thank the next time you run into some asshole with a "change you can believe in" button."

Can you elaborate? Not following you here....

The stock market is a forward looking indicator. Can you follow that? If the market hits 5000, it will be due to the expansion of the welfare state and the death of capitalism as we know it. Which African Dictator do we have to thank for that?

"The stock market is a forward looking indicator. Can you follow that? If the market hits 5000, it will be due to the expansion of the welfare state and the death of capitalism as we know it. Which African Dictator do we have to thank for that?"

I don't know any African dictators significantly affecting US policy. Do you?

It was a metaphor. I guess in a more literal sense, "the Marxist dictator of African decent"

"It was a metaphor. I guess in a more literal sense, "the Marxist dictator of African decent""

Oh good grief.

"True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing". Socrates Greek philosopher in Athens (469 BC - 399 BC).

Iceman1996, you are a racist jerk.

What makes me a racist, because I called O a Marxist Dictator? After all the things that were said about Bush/Cheney over the years, that was quite harmless. Last I checked he is of African decent, so how is that racist?

Unfortunately, once America becomes socialist, my only solace was will be in knowing I was right. Anybody remember NYC under Dinkins? Roll out those policies to the entire US and we will have squeegy people on main St. in Cedar Rapids, IA.

As I said, This really is change we can believe in, but than again, so is herpes. We are all screwed and we have only ourselves to thank.

Him who Knows seems to Know

Actually, he is as much of European descent as he is of African descent, racist.

Then why weren't you complaining when we elected "America's First Black President"?

And, no, its not racist... look up what racism means.

I was and still do. It was a strange feeling to find myself agreeing on this issue with Christopher Hitchens, who complained early and often about the use of the "first black president" moniker. To say that Obama is "black"-- as opposed to biracial-- is to buy into the rule of hypodescent or "one drop" rule, which categorizes anyone with "one drop" of "black" blood (as though there is such a thing), even if they look "white," as black. As for the question of what racism means and is, there is no one definition of the concept. It would be more appropriate to speak of racisms, in the plural.