Forbes Magazine: America's Best Long-Term Real Estate Bets, New York #5

"Forbes.com evaluated the country's 40 largest Census-defined metro areas using the last 25 years of NAHB data. We examined new construction and vacancy rates to calculate historical fluctuations in supply and demand against national averages. Moody's Economy.com provided job-growth forecasts through 2017."

Notice that the analysis doesn't include pricing or job market. Absolute devastation in the primary income source of the city to end the biggest bubble of all time somehow got lost in the analysis. Nice work, Forbes!

I think the best markets right now are areas where the cost if living is low, like Charlotte, NC and perhaps Dallas.

ny10022 is right. This Forbes article is an absolute joke. Most likely it was written by new yorkers.

How can they not discuss the fact that the financial sector, the city's lifeblood, is basically crippled.

nyc10022: the paragraph you quote mentions the job market, no?

Bump!!!

Bitter renters never learn.

this article is great for a laugh. moody's analysis does not disappoint - about the same level of accuracy as their ratings of AAA CDOs. bitter renters? happyowner are you kidding me? i rent and sleep like a baby because i know i'll be buying 30% down from here.

But now prices have not measurably decreased, and inventory has ticked down a bit. Given that we're in the middle of a severe national recession, I'd say NY real estate is holding up pretty well. So I think the Forbes article is about right.

> NY real estate is holding up pretty well

Fastest decline in the entire country so far... that's "holding up"?

nyc10022, do you ever base anything you say on facts? Except for steve, you push more nonsense than just about anyone on this board. Keep trying to convince yourself that you have been better off renting all these years.

"But now prices have not measurably decreased, and inventory has ticked down a bit."

Different data points point to a drop of around 15-20% from peak already. The only reason inventory is dropping a bit here is because of people not listing new apartments during the holidays and some even taking those listings off the market temporarily until january. let's see what happens to inventory after jan. 15th...

K - i'll be buying 30% down from here.

Good!!! And good luck!!!

When you actually commit and own a piece of our great city, I will heartily congratulate you!!! Happy shopping! Please announce your purchase, if, in fact, you ever do move forward.

nyc10022 sees what he wants to see. There's a whole thread analyzing at best 50 closes that happened at 20% down, and he concludes that the entire market is down 20%. Yet 50 closes, even in this tiny-volume market, is nothing. Streeteasy reports 300 closings in the last 30 days alone - he's analyzing the extreme of the market (heavily cherrypicked by bears looking for extreme drops), not even 10% of the deals done, and concluding a median from it.

Steve Forbes is predicting a recovery in 09, he is a clueless as Larry Kudlow was while the whole economy tanked he was predicting a Goldilocks economy.

techguy - were those 50 closes down from previous sales, or from asking prices?

LICC: previous sales. Its the 600+ message thread. You can't miss it. It does bias heavily towards attempted flippers, and failed ones at that, so the numbers have to be put in perspective. That said, its an interesting read. Its also the source of nyc10022's pretend "fact" that the entire market is down 20%, faster than any other market ever went down. Right... I'm sure an equally biased sample of Miami or Vegas real estate soon after their pop wouldn't find a single distressed seller selling at a 20% loss.

Is mitch2 here? I cannot find him anywhere on SE today...

"nyc10022, do you ever base anything you say on facts? Except for steve, you push more nonsense than just about anyone on this board. Keep trying to convince yourself that you have been better off renting all these years."

Easy killer, this stat has been well covered on this board...

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/manhattan-home-prices-down-around-20

What exactly was "nonsense" about this?

"he's analyzing the extreme of the market (heavily cherrypicked by bears looking for extreme drops), not even 10% of the deals done, and concluding a median from it."

Ah, I get it... tech guy lied (what's new), and you bought it.

Nice. Talking about confusing wishes for facts... I wondered how folks could bury their heads in the sand and deny significant drops... now I know... Great way to invest.

nyc10022, your claim that NYC is the fastest declining market in the country is utter nonsense.

You might want to spend your effort reading instead of going off on personal attacks.

The thread when this article came out covered this well... Manhattan's 20% decline was signficantly faster than Miami, Vegas, CA, or any of the big movers, which took over a year to fall that amount. One of the other articles around then pointed it out (check the threads for the direct links)

Or, just go with plain old logic... mathematically, this makes Manhattan the fastest declining market in the country...

You're turning into the next "short steve" indicator.... whatever you say is "nonsense" turns out to be fact...

nyc10022: This is getting old. You link an article about anecdotal evidence of a 20% decline, you interpret that as fact, and insult anyone who points out the underlying reality. In fact, the article says this won't become official data until April (assuming the anecdotal data becomes reality at all) yet you compare it to other markets as if it became official months ago. Its all anecdotal anyway, and the article itself says "though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume".

The very article you quote says its hard to get a clear handle on prices, yet you insult anyone who says its hard to get a clear handle on prices.

Its ironic that you make comparisons to stevejhx. Who's the only other person here who repeatedly posts articles that he grossly misinterprets, and refuses to listen to anyone who correctly interprets those very same articles?

nyc10022, I'm not sure if you are disingenuous or just dim. You actually think that it Miami, Vegas, etc., which have fallen much farther in value than NYC and have dropped like a rock, have had slower declines because their declines started earlier? Thankfully no one is listening to you for advice.

> which have fallen much farther in value than NYC and have dropped like a rock, have had slower
> declines because their declines started earlier?

Yes, its called math. speed = distance / time...

But don't take my word for it... read the articles.

again, spend more time on reading, less on insults.... would serve you well.

nyc10022: What insults? You're the only one being insulting.