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Dead cat bounce at $1,000psf... watch out!

Started by w67thstreet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Discussion about
People now that the "market" for highish end apartments in NYCRE is starting to get close to $1,000psf.... and this seemed like the number at which the bubbly started popping... I would be very wary of a flurry of NYCRE activity that occurs at this level (it will happen).... just stay on the sidelines until GM burns through our tax money and BKs in summer....$500psf (stay the course)
Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

I hear ya. Stay the course, $500 psf.......Oooh-rah!!!!!

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

bump and grind for ericho75. et. al. DaBullz....... 5 months ago... wow, I should've shorted GM at that moment!

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Response by RE_PRO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 161
Member since: May 2009

w67, so you are saying that you expect prices will drop further... do you think i can find a 1500+sqft for under 900k in a nice building..?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9889
Member since: Mar 2009

Sometimes markets dead cat bounce a dozen times.... like falling down the stairs. There's a thud on each riser, but the next thud is on the next lower one.... ;).

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Response by hotclee
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1
Member since: Jun 2009

5 months ago, w67 was new and didn't post a lot of sexual reference or personal attacks and could make an intelligent argument. 5 months later ... well, the person attacks are there. Is bump and grind a sexual reference? Is it a medicine he stopped taking that changed his behavior, or something about a tiger and his stripes?
By the way, was ericho75 the same as LICComment and DaBulls maybe petrfitz?

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Sometimes markets dead cat bounce a dozen times."

What?

Not illiquid markets like real estate. The travel in long, inexorable courses that take many years to complete.

This one has just begun.

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Response by marco_m
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2481
Member since: Dec 2008

500 is a good number. evry month brings us closer

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Response by projects_suck
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 72
Member since: Jan 2009

blah- blah- blah... wake up - it is just a mirage

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Steve is correct. RE has incredible inertia. The same thing that let the bubble go on way too long is what makes recoveries SO painful.

You can't dump RE like stock, its a slower more drawn out process. The amount of folks lining up to sell "when things get better" is growing longer each day (Zillow says its 2/3 of homeowners).

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

RE_P, $500psf..no problem.

30yrs and Stevehjx, I should have clarified... I meant a dead cat bounce more in terms of volume spikes, I don't believe for a moment the sellers will have any pricing power (although, if it went to $1,500psf, at this moment, I don't think there's enough server capacity to hold all the new listings that would flood the mkt) :)

hotclee... point taken, but Ericho75 started it :). I will make amends by getting back to the NYC RE market with something I'll call "Building Bubble Math". Follow me to that thread, it'll be rally enlightening.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

There may be what in your terminology you might call "resistance" at the $1000 psf level, both for buyers - unwilling to go above - and sellers - unwilling to go below.

But there's nothing like spiking inventories to catch a seller's attention.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

But guess what happens when you cross a resistance level!?!?

If you don't bounce off it, you, well... anybody remember the stock market?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9889
Member since: Mar 2009

"30yrs and Stevehjx, I should have clarified... I meant a dead cat bounce more in terms of volume spikes, I don't believe for a moment the sellers will have any pricing power (although, if it went to $1,500psf, at this moment, I don't think there's enough server capacity to hold all the new listings that would flood the mkt)"

That's the way I took it (which, I think, is why stevejhx disagreed with me: he saw it as me claiming the market would go up and down a dozen times. OTOH, there will, of course, be micro-upticks. just one the seasonality alone, you'll see - I think - Winter/Spring upticks over Summer/Fall drops, even as the market goes "steadily" down over years).

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Response by 007
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 195
Member since: Nov 2008

guys- you have hijacked SE and made it into a stupid blog about yourself. You are engaged in predictions that none of you are qualified to make. Rather than discussing new developments or specific apartments for sale /rent, you are busy acting out your narcissistic primitive needs. I have canceled my subscription to SE as I find the site to be irrelevant. Hopefully you will get your pathological needs met elsewhere in life. Best.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

Hey 007 - Toodles! We'll miss you!

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

007 don't worry... my ego is so great... that I created w68thstreet and signed up w/ SE to negate your $10/month loss... Cheers!

Oh... let me tweet again... $500psf, GM bks, lost of activity at $1,000psf.... 5 months ago. The only one not to coming to fruition yet is $500psf for my Grand Mill, it'll happen... iz gotz no doubties...

and FYI, I doubt a single true life braggart is on here... they're too busy being a braggart at their work, to their spouses and cleaning lady. So let me be a braggart about my not being a braggart in real life:
1) my nanny of 3 yrs only found out I went to an ivy, when an ivy friend dropped by for drinks;
2) there is not a single diploma displayed on any walls... matter of fact, we packed it away from the move 3 yrs ago and never bothered;
3) my 997 T has 20% tints... ( I hate convertibles), cops can't see me even with a flashlights streaming into the front windshield (yes, I have a slight tint on there as well);
4) my co-workers never knew I did RE deals on the side;
5) my wife's occupation was a forbidden topic at all kid school functions.... it just so happens another parent is a drug rep and then the gig was up....

Good it feels great being a braggart on line .... I get to do it so little in real life..... maybe that's why I'm on here and the loss of a cute puppy at a really early stage of my life.... the scar that I carry to this day....

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Response by dwell
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

"have canceled my subscription to SE as I find the site to be irrelevant. "

Oh Heavens :(
we'll miss you, Bondgirl.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9889
Member since: Mar 2009

"You are engaged in predictions that none of you are qualified to make."

Because you say so? I'm damn fucking qualified to make these predictions, get paid for doing so, and have been certified by both NY State and Federal courts. So speak for yourself, but don't assume that just because you don't know shit that it means none of the rest of us do, nimrod.

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