Hardest Hit Neighborhoods in the NYC Crash

as i said 6months ago
harlem (doomed), financial district, midtown west.
I have no idea besides Manhattan, I never go to these places

nyc10022 good thread.

Dumbo
Greepoint
Sections of Bushwich & Bedstuy they call WillyB due to cityfication*

hmm
run a search on 3br 2ba in central harlem -- tell me what you see -- v few price reductions, quite a few in contract
now repeat this for UWS and tell me what you see

Basically in tis category apts priced at $2 million and up seem to have seen across the board reductions. V few in this category are in C. Harlem and they are showing v few cuts

I have expected Harlem to be a big crash but new developments there are so far unwilling to give more than 10%
V Interesting, isnt it?
The area has a ton of new developments with a lot more in construction. This has to give at some point. Still, the price differentiation is the factor. Still don't have much on the UWS in the under 1.4 million for a 3/2 and the housing stock in C Harlem is newer and better fixed up.
Still hoping and waiting for the wave in this price segment.....
so far it seems that the high fliers have been clipped, and deservedly so....but help for th emiddle class may only come after Obama is firmly ensconsed and his beatific smile permeates the sellers conscience.
It is funny to be talking about middle class and affordability on a board where 1.2 million is bottom of the barrel for a house purchase.
The American dream resides somewhere but looks rather different across America -- no longer a vanilla land of homogeneous culture and dwellers

just wait till developers on both the resi and commercial side can't refinance this year. there's no more securitization that can repackage those awful loans. of the 530bln of refinancing loans in the coming 3 years, 160bln is due in '09? talk about how new developments will start to feel real pain and unleash an onslaught of price reductions across the board.

In my opinion:
Clinton, LES, Harlem, FiDi will be hardest hit. All these neighborhoods have priced in "prime" pricing for much of their stock. I'd say another 30%-50% for these areas while prime takes only another 20-30%.

Harlem and all upper manhattan (inwood and the like)

"just wait till developers on both the resi and commercial side can't refinance this year. there's no more securitization that can repackage those awful loans. of the 530bln of refinancing loans in the coming 3 years, 160bln is due in '09? "

Yup. coup de grace. we'll feel the effects for years.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122991429181825709.html

They'll just line up for TARP! Its the new in thing to do.

As joedavis points out, new development will probably hold out the longest, even though a lot of it is in recently gentrified neighborhoods. Resales in these areas will probably be hit pretty hard, but that's a different product, which is why this discussion is really a bit silly and too generic. I think the cheaper neighborhoods (based on ppsf) that have a relatively high percentage of coops/resales on the market will be hit hardest first. I think we're seeing that on the UWS and Chelsea, but quite unclear how far it goes and where it'll move to next.