Who IS buying now?

Hate to say it, but anyone buying now, or quite frankly over the past year or two is probably not all that bright, at least with respect to their financial decisions...as RE has CLEARLY been overpriced for years now......

I disagree about buyers not being "bright" now. Some may see it simply as swapping assets and not caring about short-term losses. They need another bedroom now, the money it'll cost doesn't matter that much to them, they already own, and they don't care to undergo the drag of selling, moving into a rental, shopping, buying and moving again. Others may be getting married or moving in with one another and each own; they can sell and combine assets; nothing really lost in longterm.

Can you save more financially by waiting? Yeah. But sometimes life is more important than eeking every dollar you can out of it.

Everyone needs to buy now because:

Now is the time to buy.

If you don't buy now you will be priced out forever.

On a serious note, it is not safe to catch a falling knife. If Oprah Winfrey is scaling back who are you average folks? My humble and honest opinion.

Sales are down 75%, and you know some of that volume is from older contracts.

So, the easy answer is.... nobody is buying.

People buy for all kinds of reasons. Investment isn't always the only consideration. People need to move, want to move, etc. And in 20 years who among us really thinks NYC property will be worth less than it is today?

Besides, buying now is hassle free. Realtors will practically pick you up, show you around and drop you back off again. If you see something you like, you can name a price. In a year you'll have to head out there with a machete in hand just to get a viewing...

IF you have cash and very stable employment, it's a good time to buy for the long term (7 year minimum) - it gives some people peace of mind to know that they're payments will stay the same for the next 10 years and if you don't read streeteasy or any real estate news, you may not know that you'll lose another 20% - or you may just not care. I agree - selling and renting and trying to time the market just isn't for a lot of people.

ballerini, what makes you think demand for real estate in Manhattan is going to bounce back 'in a year'? Is that what you mean when you say 'head out with a machete in hand just to get a viewing?'

Second kylewest here - it's pretty arrogant to just blindly say any buyer now is "not all that bright." Please. As noted, there are plenty of life factors that go into the decision to buy/sell. Furthermore, if the 20% down figures are true, people who are buying now (and they do exist, despite what some would have you think) may well be negotiating a pretty decent discount.

Being that the Urbandigs widget shows 2 closings yesterday, I guess the answer is no one.

yes because no one wants to live here anymore. Everyone is moving away and those with existing jobs are moving away because they see the decline in Manhattan. It is over for Manhattan. If you have any real estate here, you should sell now or be stuck with it forever and not even be able to rent it.

> And in 20 years who among us really thinks NYC property will be worth less than it is today?

Me.

I think it much more likely than not that we don't see a return to 2007 prices in real terms in the next 20 years.

> People buy for all kinds of reasons. Investment isn't always the only consideration. People need to
> move, want to move, etc.

True... but that just makes the 75% decline even more shocking.

"IF you have cash and very stable employment, it's a good time to buy for the long term (7 year minimum) - it gives some people peace of mind to know that they're payments will stay the same for the next 10 years and if you don't read streeteasy or any real estate news, you may not know that you'll lose another 20% - or you may just not care."

How exactly does that make it a "good time"? If you don't care if it loses money and just want consistency, then that would make it ALWAYS a good time to buy.... And if its always a good time, there are no "good times" or "bad times".

I think its about as dumb a time to buy as possible assuming you don't have specific personal needs.

Market 'aint going up in the next year, question is how much it declines. And rents have come down even more, such that waiting it out will at worst break even, and at best make you a lot more in savings.

A certain chance of break even and a certain chance of loss will always be a negative move.

Arguments for renting and waiting to buy are completely sound. But RE is not buying a stock as has been emphasized by many on here many times. It has different considerations.

And FWIW, I purchased my first apt. at a RE peak in 1989 and it promptly lost 33% value over the next 2 years. I recently sold it for 4x purchase price. And over the 18 years I owned, I decorated and renovated as I chose, had a say in how the building was run, what the amenities were, and which capital improvements to make. The apt. was NOT among the variables in my life and I loved enjoying the sense of home and permanency it offered. Those are not quantifiable benefits in monetary terms. Could I have extracted more value for a buck out of my life with different choices? Yeah, probably. But my goal is not to leave behind as much money as I can when I die. I have a long-range plan and the purchase of an apt. last summer was consistent with that plan.

The purely financial analyses offered on many threads are useful as a starting point, but given the different role of RE in our lives from ordinary investments, the financial analyses are not the end of the discussion. One size analysis does not fit everyone. I think acknowledging that adds some dimension to the discussions. And I don't just mean multi-millionaires and trust fund people. Even at a more modest socio-economic level, the final decision is more nuanced than just $$$.

I just sold one for $8.7M thursday. I am now working with 2 more potential buyers.

Rachel - I just sold one for $8.7M thursday. I am now working with 2 more potential buyers.

Please keep us informed. The bitter renters are acting delusional. :)

They're sooo delusional. Of course sales have slowed and people are negotiating - duh! It just seems like these guys can't believe people would buy for any other reason than to "flip." Some people just want to own their home! Jeez!

Rachel - what areas, if any, are handling this downturn better than others?

prime areas for sure. Fringe areas not so good. For example - Central Park West, holding up, Avenue B, not so much...

of course. Fifth Avenue I'm sure is fine, as is Park.

> Arguments for renting and waiting to buy are completely sound. But RE is not buying a stock as has
> been emphasized by many on here many times. It has different considerations.

Yes, definitely different considerations.

You can live in it, on the pro side...
But, it historically isn't much of an "investment"
RE markets don't generally bounce, they sit (much less liquid).

Your example also includes the biggest bubble of all time. If you sold recently, you sold near peak. Using that as an example of why you should or shouldn't makes little sense.

The historical data also says, over 20 years, expect a decrease in real terms.

SOOOO.. ShillRachel didn't leave after all...

Queen of De Nile...

> The bitter renters are acting delusional. :)

Putting "bitter" in the same sentence as "renter" takes about as much delusion as it gets.

Just read the posts... its the delusion and bitter clearly coming from the owner and broker side.

BTW, this "oh so honest" AgentRachel who says folks are buying from her left and right...

ask her why she's been trying to pick up clients on this board for weeks?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/search?search=AgentRachel

Also check out some of her claims... she denies the decline only 2 weeks before it was proven. And numbers folks called her out on her shilling.... this person is not honest.

Amazing, it is always the liars who say you can trust them.

Prices are Park And fifth are dropping just as much as other nieghborhoods.......FACT.

One man's opinion: There's a happy medium somewhere. Blindly buying at the very peak is probably painful, life considerations notwithstanding (unless you're so rich you don't care). But timing the exact bottom is also very difficult and requires significant non-financial sacrifices for diminishing financial rewards.

So I view it as a sliding scale. The bar for buying for me was VERY high in 2007. I am now a bit more tempted, since I can get better deals on some properties. I will most likely buy in the next 1-2 years, almost regardless of what prices do. I hope to get a pretty good deal, and almost certainly better than one I would've gotten in 2007. But it may not be as good as the deal I'd get by timing the bottom perfectly, and that's ok too.
To specifically answer the question posed in the thread - not me.

newbuyer - thats one of the most reasonable things posted here!

Keep in mind nyc10022 has said previously that he believes the "enlightened few" on the Streeteasy boards can *cause* a decline in real estate. He plans to buy at the bottom. Of course he's going to crap all over any reasonable posts - he believes doing so will yield him a better purchase price later.

Talk about delusional...

yup, he is a total lunatic. seems to have much time on his hands..

> But timing the exact bottom is also very difficult and requires significant non-financial sacrifices
> for diminishing financial rewards.

Exact timing, sure. But waiting until the decline at least STARTS to slow... thats easy.

There is a difference betweem waiting for a bottom, and not buying 5 minutes after the decline starts thinking you're getting a "bargain".

> yup, he is a total lunatic.

I always take personal insults from folks who are oblivious to the truth as compliments.

BTW, this is the same AgentRachel shill who said "now is the time to buy" right before the 20% dip. Check the threads.

Still tons of denial in the air...

nyc10022 and I have a lot in common. We both love trashing NYC and hope that it rots to the core. We both HATE NYC and wish we could move back to Chicago.

Again, why is it always the folks who denied there would be a decline who are the first to tell you that it is ending?

> We both love trashing NYC and hope that it rots to the core. We both HATE NYC and wish we could move
> back to Chicago.

I love NYC, and think Chicago sucks. I lived in Chicago for a bit for work, and that made me think it sucks more.

I just realize that we occasionally have bubbles, and have no plans to consider buying while this one is still deflating.

"And in 20 years who among us really thinks NYC property will be worth less than it is today?"

On real terms there is no doubt it will be worth less than it is worth today. Today's values are completely out of whack with a 110 year historical trendline.

On nominal terms, you're outlook isn't that great either. Japan's real estate in urban centers is worth less than it was in 1990. Those that bought with 100 year mortgages at the peak of the bubble still haven't recouped their losses. It took 8-9 years to get back to the nominal peak from the last NYC property bubble, expect this much larger bubble to take much longer.

It is funny.... sales are down 75% and prices are down 20% already (per the industry reports)...

and the folks who don't think we're in a downturn and who think sales haven't slowed dramatically - are the ones calling others "delusional".

It is generally the biggest complainers that are the biggest hypocrites.

But, I guess denial is a very powerful thing.

"Of course he's going to crap all over any reasonable posts - he believes doing so will yield him a better purchase price later."

This is great. Tech_guy is so delusional about his purchase near the peak of the market that he is blaming individual posters for the downturn in the market. How's your magical 18x price-to-rent ratio doing now that rents have fallen even more dramatically?

> Japan's real estate in urban centers is worth less than it was in 1990.

1) Significantly less and 2) in NOMINAL terms. It is extremely painful in real terms.

Granted, I don't think we're Japan.... but we are talking about almost as bad a bubble here, and some very real long term changes.

What is "this time things are different" in Japanese, anyway?

"I always take personal insults from folks who are oblivious to the truth as compliments.

BTW, this is the same AgentRachel shill who said "now is the time to buy" right before the 20% dip. Check the threads.

Still tons of denial in the air..."

Honestly, you tend to insult brokers and ask questions later. I've met some unsavory brokers, but it's really poor taste to go after them the way you do. AgentRachel really hasn't done anything to merit that, even though you may disagree with her.

Only people who are buying are people that absolutely need to because they are out of space. That, and people who have cash and are looking for what they think is a steal. For instance, I saw a nice 3br/2bth apartment in the UES, decently renovated, for 1.5M (around $935/sf). I'd be interested to buy only if I got a real bargain on the price -- maybe at 1M (around $650/sf) -- that set it to pre-bubble days.

Currently no broker or buyer is interested in hearing those kinds of offers, so I've stopped looking and will resume if and when that kind of offer garners more interest.

bjw, you are wrong here... this goes back several threads. AgentRachel not only started the lying, she started the insults. Not to mention, I've used words like "denial". That is a far cry from "lunatic".

Which is no surprise to me, that the person who lies for a living will resort to personal attacks.

I meant no broker or seller....

"This is great. Tech_guy is so delusional about his purchase near the peak of the market that he is blaming individual posters for the downturn in the market. How's your magical 18x price-to-rent ratio doing now that rents have fallen even more dramatically?"

Yeah, I've had him on ignore for a while, and its been great... though I notice he still keeps posting after my posts. He should keep doing that, it might keep him from spreading his "knowledge" elsewhere.

But, as I've said a few times, denial is a very powerful thing. It certainly has its grasp on a few.

That being said, denial is not nearly as bad as lying to people to make a few bucks off them, ala AgentRachel.

"Granted, I don't think we're Japan.... "

We're repeating all the same mistakes. Here's a graph from early 2008 comparing the US to Japanese bubble. You can fill in the rest of 2008 with a downward line. http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2008/03/18/18opchartlarge.gif

Konichiwa, bitches.

"and prices are down 20% already (per the industry reports)..."

Again, no. 4Q reports are not out yet!

"AgentRachel not only started the lying, she started the insults."

Haven't seen any instances of that. If it's the case, apologies, but I haven't seen it.

I didn't say Q4 report... Jonathan Miller put out the monthly reports.

Again, yes.

> We're repeating all the same mistakes.

I don't disagree. BUT, do consider that at its peak the RE in downtown tokyo was "worth" several times that of the US stock market.

We are stupid, and we have a huge bubble.... but it didn't get that far. Commercial rents, for instance, topped out before $200. The 6th avenue spaces got to maybe $125/150 psf. We hit $100 in the last bubble.

"I didn't say Q4 report... Jonathan Miller put out the monthly reports.

Again, yes."

Link to the report? Miller Samuel only puts out quarterly reports, and the 20% figure is not in 3Q reports.

> Haven't seen any instances of that. If it's the case, apologies, but I haven't seen it.

I accept your apology.

I also looked, and the worst thing I said seems to be "not honest" above... (and that was talking about specific comments) then AR returns with personal attacks.

If you're going to play hall monitor again, you should get your facts straight.

> Link to the report?

Its the Fed Beige Book report, where "Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's analysis based on contract prices"

"Again, no."

bjw, you do seem to do an awful lot of accusing without getting the reading done first...

What's your angle here?

"I accept your apology."

I like it that you accept a conditional apology without demonstrating that the condition is true. Ha!

"If you're going to play hall monitor again, you should get your facts straight."

Hey call it what you will, just holding your feet to the fire and (again) calling for a little decorum from you. You play pretty loose with the facts when it suits you.

"This is great. Tech_guy is so delusional about his purchase near the peak of the market that he is blaming individual posters for the downturn in the market"

I very clearly said this was nyc's claim, and that its insane to think anyone can have an effect here. Is twisting what I write the only way you can argue with me?

tech_guy there's no need to argue with you. The nonesense you babble stands for itself.

"I don't disagree. BUT, do consider that at its peak the RE in downtown tokyo was "worth" several times that of the US stock market."

In 1990, 20% of the world's wealth was in Japanese real estate. Ahh bubbles :)

"Its the Fed Beige Book report, where "Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which provided data for the Fed's analysis based on contract prices""

Yes, but you called this "industry reports." You can see exactly what was reported here:

"prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos are reported to have fallen by 15 to 20 percent since mid-summer, though it is hard to get a clear handle on prices due to thin volume—much of the recent activity is reportedly from desperate sellers. Transaction activity has dropped off noticeably, and there has been a large increase in the number of listings. Some buyers that had signed contracts for units under construction earlier this year are having trouble getting financing at the contract price now that market values have dropped. Many of those having difficulty selling their apartments are putting them up for rent, boosting the number of rental listings substantially—particularly in doorman buildings. Average asking rents are reported to be down 1 to 4 percent from a year earlier."

That is not the grand declaration you seek to make it! Patience, I'm pretty sure it'll be there when Q4 reports are out.

> tech_guy there's no need to argue with you. The nonesense you babble stands for itself.

Which is why the ignore button works oh so well.

If we're already in a climate that accepts as fact nyc10022's claim that Miller Samuel publishes a monthly report (they do not) which quoted 20% down definitively (there were a billion caveats) and that this is the fastest decline nationwide (apples to oranges, comparing timelines of lagging official reports elsewhere to Samuel's leading, predictive reports now), arguing is pretty pointless. People don't want facts, they want reassurance that their decision not to buy is correct.

We'll see in a few years what the real truth is. I'm sure nyc10022 will still spin it his way, and I'm sure the renters will still have blind faith is his patently false claims. Its sad that he may very well be right (there are only 2 options - up or down - a coin flip can be right with 50% probability) and you still won't realize his reasoning and arguments are just plain wrong. You don't care about why, you just care that the coin lands tails-up, and couldn't care less about the arguments and reasoning.

Merry Christmas all, I'm off for a while.

"Average asking rents are reported to be down 1 to 4 percent from a year earlier."

Yet jgr so wisely asks me about tanking rents... sad, really.

> Yes, but you called this "industry reports."

Ok, if thats what you are arguing... you win. I didn't get the correct color on the report.

> That is not the grand declaration you seek to make it!

Its exactly as grand as I made it.... I made it clear, manhattan median down. I've qualified it several times. That I've had to repeat myself is only due to certain folk in denial posting false market assessments.

Wow, tech guy keeps posting... as if someone is actually going to read it.

didn't agent rachel just make a movie? Mark my on-line words.... anyone buying in the next 18 months r going to be kicking themselves in the head... and probably headed for divorce as their financial pain puts cracks in an unsound marriage...

movie??

thanks for standing up for me BJ. the lunatic 10022 is very angry with me for disagreeing with him. and yes, i freely admit to calling him a lunatic.

tech_guy, if you think average asking rents are down 1-4% you are more delusional than i thought. just take twenty seconds to look on craigslist and you'll see how wrong that number is. even excluding owners paying broker fees (which is now standard) and offers of one or two free months, rents are down significantly. i can't say for sure, but i'd estimate 10-20%.

"just holding your feet to the fire"

bjw, are you really serious about putting in this much effort to be hall monitor?

> tech_guy, if you think average asking rents are down 1-4% you are more delusional than i thought.

Asking is one thing... what you end up paying is another.

I've never seen so many deals...

nyc10022: "I just realize that we occasionally have bubbles, and have no plans to consider buying while this one is still deflating".

Hey nyc10022,just wondering if you could fill in some gaps for me please.
you remember nyc in the 80's, you are a renter waiting for the bubble to be deflated before you buy.

Have you ever bought before? Did you see the completion of the deflation cycle in 1994? Did you buy then?
If you had bought, when did you sell?

> Have you ever bought before?

Several times, but thats all you're going to get from me....

Agentrachel... pls see "Call all Borkers...." thread... it got outta hand.. but nyc10022 made me do it :)

Seriously, can't you guys do a measurement that everyone can repeat? I may actually start a company to do it.... hmmmmmm? Where that MBA?

ooops... Agentrachel... "Can a Borker please add some value to this discussion... no jedi trick a real request..." It's getting late... good-nite... I do have that hormone issue.... :)

Merry Christmas to all and happy kwanzaa to exit2. :)

The Devil tells a Real Estate Agent, "Look, I can make you richer, more famous, and more successful than any Real Estate Agent
alive. In fact, I can make you the greatest agent that ever lived."

"Well," says the Real Estate Agent, "what do I have to do in return?"

The Devil smiles, "Well, of course you have to give me your soul," he says, "but you also have to give me the souls of your children, the souls of your children's children and, as a matter of fact, you have to give me the souls of all your descendants throughout eternity."

"Wait a minute," the Real Estate Agent says cautiously, "What's the catch?"

A young broker had just started his own real estate office. He rented a beautiful office and had it furnished with antiques.
Sitting there, he saw a man come into the outer office. Wishing to appear the hot shot, the broker picked up the phone and
started to pretend he had a big deal working.
He threw huge figures around and made giant commitments. Finally he hung up and asked the visitor, "Can I help you?"
The man said, "Yeah, I've come to activate your phone lines."

nyc... LMAO.. but gotta go... get some sleep.

night... happy holidays. (to you and all)

Why is everyone under the assumption that we all buy for profit or to flip? Is that what poor people do? Does anybody plan to, like, actually live in their homes? Living in their apartments, what a shocker right?

I am a renter who's not in the market, but if I come upon something I really like, I'll buy it. By the time I'd ever want to sell and upgrade, the market would have long recovered.

This overly-gleeful pessimism is getting quite annoying.

I feel compelled to add my two cents as I was helped in making my decision to sell my primary residence, by some of the insightful forecasts made by Stevejhx and urbandigs. I have studied Manhattan real estate for many years, I have owned Manhattan real estate for many years, and I was very bullish in 2003 when I bought a new primary residence, and I remained bullish for many years despite analysis to the contrary beginning as early as 2005. My reason for being bullish was based upon a set of fundamentals that were all operating at a high level, but have all turned extremely negative.
Anyone considering buying, and who has time to wait, should wait. There is simply no way that prices will NOT continue to fall for the next several quarters. If, due to circumstance, you need to buy now, lowball and negotiate hard, and even in today's market, you will find sellers who will sell for 20-25% below asking. For the first time in many years we are experiencing a dynamic where hundreds, and perhaps thousands, of units will be coming to market by owners that need to sell. They are not testing the market, they can no longer afford their unit. The next year, as a buyer, is a time to be active in looking, but patient in buying. Anyone who says otherwise simply does not understand or accept what is going on around them

"Why is everyone under the assumption that we all buy for profit or to flip?"

You are mistaken, everyone it not.

"I am a renter who's not in the market, but if I come upon something I really like, I'll buy it. By the time I'd ever want to sell and upgrade, the market would have long recovered."

Of course, you seem to be interested in the profit you are complaining about. Saying "its for the long term" doesn't change profitability factors. You are talking about resale value and "recovery". So, seems like you are the one interested in what you are complaining about.

And, the quick answer here... is, no, there is a good chance this won't be true. RE over the long term basically covers inflation, thats all. Meaning that if you take the decline in this bubble, you are likely looking at significant real dollar loss.

A significant loss stretched out over time doesn't it any less of a loss...

sorry... A significant loss stretched out over time doesn't MAKE it any less of a loss...

"Its exactly as grand as I made it...."

Really? There are major caveats right there in the text I cited for you! It says 15-20% (of course you'd just pick the upper limit) BUT it is still "hard to get a clear handle on pricing." Not a particularly confident statement, which is why I favor waiting for the Q4 stats.

"bjw, are you really serious about putting in this much effort to be hall monitor?"

You love that term, though it really doesn't apply. You trumpet some of your predictions and repeat them as fact. Normally, that's not a big deal, but the sheer volume and frequency of your posting (not to mention repeating "20%! AND MORE TO COME!" and "Crash!" and profanity ad nauseum indicate a strong bias and clear agenda. What's your angle? Did you buy at some point and blame the broker for a major loss? And now you desperately want prices to come down so you can buy? I suppose I just expect a little more civility and patience, and significantly less hysteria, especially when there are strong signs you may get pricing that's more favorable.

"Dumbass, he actually apologized for doing so.
We all get that you are a moron.
You have to lie and shill to pick up business, then deny it... while you've been trolling this board to pick up customers for weeks.
You deserve the f*cking this market is giving you..."

It wasn't exactly an apology - I've yet to see where she insulted you or outright "lied". Your last post there is pretty abusive and really unwarranted. Take it easy.

"For the first time in many years we are experiencing a dynamic where hundreds, and perhaps thousands, of units will be coming to market by owners that need to sell. They are not testing the market, they can no longer afford their unit. The next year, as a buyer, is a time to be active in looking, but patient in buying. Anyone who says otherwise simply does not understand or accept what is going on around them"

Right on. And much more solid advice than a lot of the hysterics above.

"of course you'd just pick the upper limit"

I didn't, the article did. Its the headline.

> > "bjw, are you really serious about putting in this much effort to be hall monitor?"

>You love that term, though it really doesn't apply.

Sure it does. You even said it yourself.

"Hey call it what you will, just holding your feet to the fire and (again) calling for a little decorum from you."

Thats about as hall monitor as it gets.

> I've yet to see where she insulted you or outright "lied

Only because you don't read very carefully (or at all) before you jump into hall monitor mode.

> Right on. And much more solid advice than a lot of the hysterics above.

Amusingly, its the advice I gave months back, when it was considered "crazy".

I know you don't like me being ahead of the curve... but you should be used to me calling it right already. Your "don't believe the hype" nonsense could have gotten a lot of people burned a few months back. The hype was absolutely right.... perhaps you should step back and stop trying to give advice or be the hall monitor of this board.

""Hey call it what you will, just holding your feet to the fire and (again) calling for a little decorum from you."

Thats about as hall monitor as it gets."

And it's precisely what you do when someone posts something you disagree with! I guess you're a "hall monitor" too!

"Amusingly, its the advice I gave months back, when it was considered "crazy"."

Not quite - your posts are frequently full of histrionics. Huge contrast.

"I know you don't like me being ahead of the curve... but you should be used to me calling it right already."

Exactly my point - you take all of your predictions as fait accompli! Not a good idea, because guess what? You are not always right. No one is.

"Your "don't believe the hype" nonsense could have gotten a lot of people burned a few months back. The hype was absolutely right.... perhaps you should step back and stop trying to give advice or be the hall monitor of this board.""

People are responsible for their own actions - I never told anyone to "buy buy buy!" If you check the older threads, I have always said it's smart to continue shopping and be patient and aggressive with bidding - similar to what mh23 said above. I'm starting to think you really believe this board can really affect the market out there (hence the enourmous amount of time you spend posting here). If you don't like my posts, feel free to ignore them or just don't respond.

I think it is quite transparent that you take it as your "duty" to correct only the bulls. I've never seen you even once post to correct anyone claiming the market isn't down, or any other ridiculous assessment to the upside.... You'll completely ignore folks saying market up or flat, their errors are "fine", yet you'll fight to correct 20% vs. 15-25 down.

But, not surprising, given that those who complain the most about "agendas" are usually those who have their own...

> I have always said it's smart to continue shopping and be patient and aggressive with bidding

Which was very bad advice 6 months ago. Say you got your 10% discount... you still overpaid.

Don't talk about agendas like you don't have one.

> If you don't like my posts, feel free to ignore them or just don't respond.

Hypocritical sentence of the decade... coming from the guy who needs to "correct" me.

"I think it is quite transparent that you take it as your "duty" to correct only the bulls. I've never seen you even once post to correct anyone claiming the market isn't down, or any other ridiculous assessment to the upside.... You'll completely ignore folks saying market up or flat, their errors are "fine", yet you'll fight to correct 20% vs. 15-25 down."

It's obvious you've only been here the last 3-4 months or so (and probably a little more if we include your previous screenname, but not much). When (a few) people on this board were pretty much proclaiming Manhattan could not decline, I posted to offer my dissent. I continue to do so, but you gloss over that. You have this extraordinarily simplistic view that people are either bears or bulls - sorry, things aren't that clear cut. It really hurts your arguments.

"But, not surprising, given that those who complain the most about "agendas" are usually those who have their own..."

Your favorite stock line when you run out of arguments. You can say I have agenda - it's to work to keep this board of high quality, which you denounce as "hall monitoring." Your playing loose with facts and hyperbole are effectively lowering the quality of discussion here. Streeteasy looks too much like Curbed now, and that's unfortunate.

break it up you two.. I'm gonna call the teacher :)

Merry x-mas and peace to all bulls and bears

lol

> Your favorite stock line when you run out of arguments.

no, only when someone with an agenda tells me I have an agenda....

> You can say I have agenda - it's to work to keep this board of high quality

ROTFL

Don't hurt yourself on that floor! And thanks for proving my points.

> And thanks for proving my points.

Now you sound like tech_troll... you're bordering on insanity.

When all you've got left is ad-hominem, time to stick a fork in you and this thread! Happy holidays to all!

i personally know people that just bought and that are going to buy soon. they claim that they don't care if the prices go down... but i have to see that to believe it. within a couple of years we will see if that's true.

being significantly under water when it was the obvious thing to happen... i think on top of the realization that it sucks, they might also get embarrassed of having bought near the peak when everybody else knew to wait.

It's like saying, "I don't understand why anyone would pay retail! I only shop at the outlets."

Many are looking for bargains, while some others don't really care as much, as long as they find something they like. You can wait for a lower price, but the item you love may or may not be available when the sales season comes--or maybe you'd rather pay the extra $$$ to avoid the wait and be with "your love" right now.

I, for one, don't care if I pay over the rock bottom price, as long as I can afford something and I don't consider the apt. to be friviously over-priced (given that the development is NOT facing bankruptcy). I just know how hard it is to encounter a perfect apartment. So, it's not that I am not informed per se. I'd be making this conscious decision, knowing that others may consider it a poor financial decision--in terms of renting vs. buying, the prices coming down by at least 75% or whatever, etc.

It's like saying, "I don't understand why anyone would pay retail! I only shop at the outlets."

with the caveat that this is the biggest purchase for most and that those that claim not to care about buying at the peak sometimes do care about having $. i mean, i buy the claim if those guys are indifferent towards their net worth, but many are not. so for me "i don't care about buying at the peak" while caring about your overall net worth is kind of irrational or just not true.

unless you have more than $10M cash for ex, then it doesn't really matter. but for most of the rest of the mortals this decision has no parallel to buying toilet paper in bulk at costco (retail vs wholesale or outlet, as you point out).

bj and nyc10022... not fighting on this thread.. if they can do it, there can be peace in the middle east!

Admin... what's funny is that most people spend like weeks looking into the "right" price on a new flat screen or car, but if they studied the RE market and can wait 1-2 years and wait out this decline, I promise you never have to wait for a sale on any consumables for the rest of your life as Admin said... "biggest purchase for most" in their entire adult lives including choosing a retirement home.

Hopefully my waiting to buy since 2004 has diminished the likelihood of eating cat chow in my old age. :)

People need to slow down and realize that Manhattan is in the very early stages of its real estate slowdown. While other parts of the nation are nearing a bottom, say by Q1 2010, Manhattan has just begun. While I believe that the price slashings will be far steeper in the early stages in Manhattan, real estate never has a v shaped recovery, so there is now down side to waiting, if you can. If life, for some reaon, requires that you buy now, find twenty units you like, make lowball offers, and don't get attached to any one unit. Even at this early stage you will get 20-25% off asking, especially if you can pay cash or waive a financing contingency, then you can get an even steeper discount.

'no down side to waiting"

S63 wrote: Why is everyone under the assumption that we all buy for profit or to flip? Is that what poor people do? Does anybody plan to, like, actually live in their homes? Living in their apartments, what a shocker right?...This overly-gleeful pessimism is getting quite annoying.

S63... welcome aboard! Jedi mind trick. Nice car... I prefer a Maserati as a MB S63, though nice is gonna be like a dime a dozen at the yacht club. IMHO, the S63 is for the guy who worries more about what other people view them as vs a Maserati... which (although it spends more time in the shop) is more a driver's car MHO.

back on topic. "Poor people"... hmmmm... I think I can say with certainty that people that did not want to pay a carrying cost of $30K/month versus renting the same unit 3 floors down for $10K/month is not what I consider "poor," more like savvy, not listening to every talking head and borker about missing out on this RE Tulip mania, not poor=> smart, financially savvy, physically well endowed, getting a lot more action from the wife :).

It's also funny that you would lease a S63 and rent and yet expound on the virtues of buying and keeping your head in the sand (yes you lease as the deprecation on all top of the line MB is horrendous)... unless you are Oprah rich, in which case it begs the question why are you on SE?

Finally, gleeful pessimism.... hmmmm. Society 101. If you work hard (meritocracy) then you should be able to enjoy a higher standard of living. An asset bubble driven by pure speculation and higher levels of leverage is the complete opposite of meritocracy... I am gleeful at the return of a more normal societal construct (i.e. I can tell my 5yo to work hard and I when I am gone... I can rest assured that she will not be eating cat food).

You should try the P Panamerica... it's also more of a driver's car... one other Jedi mind trick... you are mid 50's to early 60's and sort of care what's going on NYC RE but not really cause your rent payment represent less than 10% of income.... I'm in the same "yacht" but I'm closer to 40. Happy New Year!

> When all you've got left is ad-hominem,

Wow, pot calling kettle...

"Admin... what's funny is that most people spend like weeks looking into the "right" price on a new flat screen or car, but if they studied the RE market and can wait 1-2 years and wait out this decline"

I find that most of the rationalization is AFTER THE FACT. Its folks who bought the apartments already, and then need to explain why it was a good idea. I just read recently that a psychology study notes that folks will spend more time rationalizing bad decisions than working to avoid them.

Thats generally where the denial comes from.