Are Docotrs Going to Pick up the Slack for Laid Off Finance People?

No. However, I do believe that Bergen County has more or less bottomed in terms of pricing. I predict that, beginning in 09, as quality of life erodes in Manhattan, more and more families will seek to move to Bergen County, thereby stabilizing prices in 09, and setting the stage for traditional appreciation (slightly above the inflation rate) beginning in 2010. Certain towns will fair better than others, with Alpine, Demarest, Closter and Norwood showing greater appreciation, while E. Cliffs and Tenafly lag.

Why would Demaarest and Norwood lead in appreciation while Tenafly lags? I personally like Tenafly better. Plus, their school system is ranked better.

The majority of docs in NYC make at most 200-300k/year, with some exceptions. Manhattan compensation is generally bad (say compared to midwest) but gets better the farther you get away.

My understanding is that Mehmet Oz doesn't operate much any more. So most of his compensation likely comes from books and appearences on Oprah, not from the practice of medicine.

So until median Manhattan prices come down to 500-800k, I don't see how docs can make an impact. The docs I've seen with fantastic homes, are married to financiers.

Also, the suburbs will not see any appreciation if the Manhattanities who want to move to them can't sell their apartments. So it's a catch 22. I do think prices in the burbs will stabalize in 09, but I am skeptical about seeig appreciation anytime soon because unemployment keeps going up.

Who gives a shit. You still live in a suburb.

And doctors, with the exception of some specialists, don't even come close to ibankers in salary. And not even close in numbers.

You may be right regarding 2010. Prices may stay flat for a few years. Demarest and Norwood have lower taxes, are less expensive to begin with. As far as schools go, Tenafly is getting overcrowded. Demarest has great schools, and Northern Valley Regional is better than Tenafly high. Norwood also has good scools. Tenafly is beautiful, and you can ussually get an acre, but real estate taxes for say 3.5 and up is insane.

"Doctor Mehmet Oz."

FYI he is not representative of doctors' salaries. As head of the cardiac unit at Columbia Presbyterian, he gets a cut of EVERY operation that occurs there. In addition, he is a TV celebrity.

Most other surgeons don't make nearly that much.

Alpine292: no chance. Doctors, even very good doctors, do not (as a group) make nearly as much money as was flowing through the people in the finance world the past few years.

And, maybe this is reading too much into it, but it strikes me that doctors are significantly more risk averse then people in finance. I just don't see doctors leveraging themselves into super-expensive apartments.

alpine292... Merry Xmas....

I have personally told every colleague of my wife to not buy any and all RE for the next 2 years... and seeing how I was "correct" (air quotes) for the last 4 years.. .they come to me for advice. LMAS... Oz is a quack and a colleague of my wife's... he's a TV personality and is more "Oprah Winfrey" than a "true doc." He totally believes in his "holistic" approach. :) But I digress... keep telling yourselves this group will "prop" your Alpine home.... LMAS... let's see... Londoners, Bankers, Swedes, Germans, Canadians, Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Hedge Funders, .......DOCS.. .they'll save us now...

Alpine... I have never been so sure of the direction and severity of a downturn in an asset class as I am of NYC RE (with the exception of Private Jets and Yachts (above 50ft))... Good luck with your RE... and Happy New Year.

Oh--and I love how the best example you can come up with for a "rich doctor" is a celebrity doctor who spent $2.5m on a home. There were hundreds (if not thousands) of ibankers under the age of 30 who were buying apartments that expensive a few years ago.

FYI Oz.. .is not really that impressive as a researcher in Presby... and that is a research facility... and so most highly regarded physicians views him sort of as an odd character in their cirlces....

Certain surgical specialties as well as dermatology and plastics can handily make $500,000 to $1,000,000 a year in NY. You have to be a superstar to get above the $1M mark. Majority of doctors who are at least a few years into practice are making under $400,000. They are not going to save the RE market.

Actually steve, surgeons in general do make a ton of money even if they are not celebrities. I know of at least half a dozen mansions owned by surgeons. I was inside of one in Saddle River a few years ago at an open house (3 Old Woods Road, check out the birds eye view on Zillow, it's HUGE) and the house was owned by a surgeon who was obvivously rich since there was a Ferrari in the 4 car garage.

"Oh--and I love how the best example you can come up with for a "rich doctor" is a celebrity doctor who spent $2.5m on a home."

Actually, he spent more than that. He also owns a $5 million house next door, so we are talking $7 million, not $2.5 million.

And the thing with doctors is that their salaries vary A LOT. I have 7 doctors in my family. Their aunnual salaries range from $50,000 all the way to $500,000. The one who makes $50k works at a welfare clinic in Albany and the $500k one is an invasive heart surgeon on Long Island.

"I do believe that Bergen County has more or less bottomed in terms of pricing"

Heh heh heh. Realt-whore much?

We are on the verge of a multi-year recession, possibly a depression, where real estate will see Japan-like deflationary pressures. Divide Bergen Country prices by 2 and then you MIGHT be able to say it "has more or less bottomed in terms of pricing".

A Depression? Give me a break! Shut off Peter Schiff for a day and enjoy the sunshne, ok?

Easy Admiral. I am a fan of your humor. If you disagree with me, that's fine. I have no horse in this race other than throwing in my two cents. Maybe I am wrong.

"A Depression? Give me a break! Shut off Peter Schiff for a day and enjoy the sunshne, ok?"

There's no technical definition for a depression, but it is generally accepted as > 10% unemployment U-3 which is ~20% U-6. By comparison, the "Great Depression" had an unemployment rate of 16% in 1931 which eventually rose to 25% in U-6ish numbers. Few economists doubt we aren't going to be above 9% U-3 by the end of Q4 2009 - Some are predicting 10%.

In terms of unemployment, a depression is coming. Best to prepare for it instead of putting fingers in your ears.

alpine292.. didn't you hear the Martians are coming and buying Manhattan RE... hooray! We're saved!

jgr... as a student of the Econ Voodoo sciences... I too am predicting a Depression. Wait for the other ferragamo to drop... (GM and a second wave of financial crisis and throw in some big names municipal bankruptcies and watch for the flight to treasuries driving down yields of 1 to 2% negative... and hold on to that RE Alphine292.. .it's gonna be an ugly ride... maybe your Medical relatives can lend you some money $$$$$$....

I'm holding onto my biggest asset like I've never done bf... honey... honey? where r you... do you need a foot massage? :)
LMAS... Bergen is gonna drop far greater than NYC RE.... "himwhoknowstoomuch"

I am a doctor and believe me, I can't even afford to buy a one bedroom apt in Manhattan. The days of doctors being in the upper income strata are gone. HMO's did in our incomes. After taxes and paying my loan payment which is equal to a mortgage, I'm lucky to save anything. A small percentage of celebrity physicians make more than we'll make in 10 years. No chance that doctors will save anything. My finance friends are way richer than me.

What does the average finance person/banker make. We are surely talking about the top 10% that propped up the market for the past so many years and earned over $200K.

"surgeons in general do make a ton of money even if they are not celebrities"

Actually, alpine, my brother-in-law is a heart surgeon and cannot afford a $2.5 million house. His sister is a pediatrician and can't either. A lot of their friends are doctors and can't, either. My neighbor where I used to live is a radiologist and can't afford that. My best friend is a GP who in Florida was making less than $100,000. The only ones who can afford properties like that - except the occasional celebrity like Dr. Drew - are plastic surgeons, who they don't rely on insurance or Medicare or Medicaid, which pay very little.

Plus they are all far older, and with a lot more debt, and with kids and the like, making the comparison to a 20-something ibanker right out of business school absurd.

I can tell you that I have friends who got their jobs from daddy, yes daddy, who knew the boss at a trading desk and hooked his kid up. Anyway, one friend in particular is at MER, and makes about $125K base, and was in general making about 130-250K in bonus; and trust me, this guy is no genius or trading specialist. I recall a conversation in my lobby with him about 13 months ago, last NOV 2007, when I told him I was short emerging markets and he told me emerging markets was his best trade for 2008. Both he, and a number of his co-workers, literally never saw this coming, and thought the slowdown would be short, and 2nd half 2008 see a recovery. These are the guys that work at these companies and make tons of dough. I am not embellishing here. So many made tons of money without a clue what was really going on. Some others did, and those traders deserve to survive.

Anyway, this is all done, no more. Now, he and his co-workers are waiting to see if they survive the merger and there are plenty of workers there that fear for their jobs right now. If you survive the next few quarters in finance, you probably are one of the survivors.

A fair number of docs I know are children of doctors. Which means that they graduated with no loans, and hefty downpayments (if not outright purchase price) of apts from parents. This is far more common than you think.

What's really funny to me is SE has become gossip central 101. "A friend of mine..." "My best friend is..." "I knew this guy who..."

All of this second hand gossip talk is really played out and juvenile. Nobody is directly a heart surgeon, doctor, (formerly) investment banker, so on, on here. It's only the friends, family members, etc., of those professions on here blogging about them. It's sad really.

And why aren't any of those professionals on here blogging about what the reality is of the topic? Probably because they are too busy working, living their lives, going to school, etc. I guess they view time wasted gossiping on streeteasy as time invested with no return.

This blog has become very gossip and housewife centric. And no, I'm not a broker, agent, or connected to the real estate industry. I'm just looking at buying and was told by a friend that streeteasy was a good option to view what's available. Now I see the type of people that use streeteasy and realize that they're probably the unemployed with more time than money on their hands.

Sh*t! I'm unemployed?

Did cornell just graduate another 50k doctors? Will doctors buy 2 or 3 apartments this year.

How on earth is the base of doctors, which won't grow any faster than usual, going to make up for tens of thousands of fewer folks at those salary levels?

Wow, this is more denial...

oldbuyers: I'm working today, what the fuck are you doing?

jgr: then why don't you work instead of blogging on streeteasy? I am off today from work, thank you. Was looking at apartments here on streeteasy. Why are you on here? To post articles of misery to make yourself feel better about how of a human being you are.

urbandigs, I don't know who you are, but if you're unemployed, look for another job or career. If you worked in RE and had it good for a while, might want to think about a new career if you're not doing well, which if you are wasting time blogging on here, is probably the case.

thanks for the tip oldbuyers. Browsing through classifieds as we speak.

BTW - I love how you assume that a day after xmas, if you are blogging on SE, you are not doing well. Classic!

"And the thing with doctors is that their salaries vary A LOT. I have 7 doctors in my family. Their aunnual salaries range from $50,000 all the way to $500,000. The one who makes $50k works at a welfare clinic in Albany and the $500k one is an invasive heart surgeon on Long Island."

So, great, we'll have the same number of doctors, and, at best, they'll replace a 2nd year associate, and, at worst, they make less than the secretaries did at Bear.

Doctors are going to save the RE market.... ? Didn't we try this a few months ago.

Wow, the denial is off the charts today!

I did assume it but I just found out you are a RE broker and saw your webpage. You are not doing well. I was right ont arget with that.

oldbuyers - why dont you shut up if you dont know anything about me or my business.

"blogging on streeteasy?"

This is blogging? Now that I know I'm dealing with a complete moron I can take that into account when reading the rest of your posts. Perhaps I should talk reeaaaaaally sloooooowwwwwly.

"then why don't you work instead"

Ever heard of breaks? or in my case waiting for the build to finish? I guess your tollbooth doesn't allow for them with a constant stream of cars coming into the midtown tunnel.

"I am off today from work"

So you decided to come on here and troll? Making posts bitching about people who have a bearish view of the market and nyc10022? You sir are a winner.

"To post articles of misery to make yourself feel better about how of a human being you are."

How of a human being? Now that I think about it, I do feel much better about how of a human being I am. Thanks!

"wasting time blogging on here"

Ahh, that wasn't just a slip. I hope you feel better about how of a stupid being you are.

actually, i was directing it at nyc10022. but i guess since you confused the posts with you, jgr, you are the same person. jgr=nyc10022

Well, if you are a decent RE broker then your business should be to make yourself look successful. Your webpage should make it look like you are successful. Your webpage tells me you are mediocre at best and not very successful. And you work for a small firm, which is a big disadvantage. If I was selling, I can say I would not choose you. You hardly have any listings. Don't get mad at me. Improve your business. Maybe you should join one of the big firms in NYC.

guess we got another troll here... (or, likely one of the old trolls with a new handle).

abuse button...

oldbuyers - ignored. I dont need to explain anything to you.

"I'm holding onto my biggest asset like I've never done bf... honey... honey? where r you... do you need a foot massage? :) "

I hope she's not LITERALLY your biggest asset! Moooooooooo!

What food, after women eat it, puts more weight on them than any other? Wedding cake!

I got rid of my "biggest liability" a few years ago. She wanted to lever up on housing and I said "NFW, housing is in a bubble that's about to crash". She believed what the nice realt-whores told her. Maybe they'll help her with her foreclosures, too...

> oldbuyers - ignored. I dont need to explain anything to you.

Good idea...

make that 2.