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If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Downtown Edition

Started by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
Discussion about
As discussed on the original "IFYCDMMWC" thread, please post comp sets on the relevant neighborhood-specific thread. This discussion is for DOWNTOWN properties.
Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

Please refer to the individual threads for downtown comps for the West Village, East Village, Financial District, Tribeca, SoHo, and the Lower East Side. This thread would be too broad otherwise. Thanks!

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

that's a lot of micro threads. but if you are going to go there you should start one for chelsea too

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Response by tech_guy
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 967
Member since: Aug 2008

Do people really refer to the village as "downtown"? Generation gap thing maybe...

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

yes they do. its a train thing. or a nytimes real estate thing. below 34th is downtown

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

bjw, is this really going to work? i mean, how many listings are there for the west village or the lower east side? we used to have one thread for all of new york city. that seemed to work fine. how will one thread for down town be too broad?

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Response by modern
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 887
Member since: Sep 2007

in the old days, downtown was below 14th street. how it came to be redefined as 34th st I have no idea. probably a real estate agent thing to make crappy areas between 14th and 34th sound hipper.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

i agree downtown should be below 14th. i was just going by the nytimes.

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Response by peaksie
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 31
Member since: Dec 2007

NoHo, SoHo, Nolita and all varieties of Village belong here.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Those crappy areas like Chelsea and Gramercy? I'd hardly call them mid-town.

It would be great if we could "sticky" like wirednewyork does the comp thread so they all show up together at the top. I wonder if there's a way to have one thread you pull up with all the links listed?

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

i miss this thread already. the subdivided neighborhood threads are kind of awful

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

I propose we have the following 5 downtown micro-threads:

East/Greenwich/West Village
Gramercy/Flatiron/Union Square/Chelsea
Noho/Soho/Tribeca
FiDi/BPC
LES/Chi-Town/Nolita/Little Italy/Seaport/CivCen/Stuy Town

I believe this is inclusive of all downtown neighborhoods per StreetEasy. What do you think?

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

My fault; I should have explained the split-out better. I figured for simplicity and consistency we would just use Streeteasy's terminology. That would put the following neighborhoods "downtown":

Battery Park City
Chelsea
Chinatown
Civic Center
East Village
Financial District
Flatiron
Fulton/Seaport
Gramercy Park
Greenwich Village
Little Italy
Lower East Side
Noho
Nolita
Soho
Stuyvesant Town/PCV
Tribeca
Two Bridges
West Village

Bjw2103 saw a need for granularity. You downtowners should work it out amongst yourselves. I'm not hip enough to contribute anything useful to a downtown discussion.

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Response by modern
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 887
Member since: Sep 2007

NoHo is smack in between the East Village and Greenwich Village, so I think it fits better there.

But all in all, I think maybe we just use the "Downtown" subject.

I have never in my life heard someone say "I am going to Two Bridges".

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Considering we've had not that much discussion centered on downtown comps, with the exception of some west/central village conversation, it seems like a downtown thread would be sufficient for now. It might get kind of hairy if anyone has the interest/possibly glee in reporting fidi and environs sales if some ominous signs come to fruition, but for now it should work.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

the 5 micro threads idea is confusing or at least that specific breakdown is. i think one downtown thread is best personally since i am looking for an apartment downtown and will be considering almost all of the neighborhoods.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

although i'd be all for just starting a new manhattan wide one that was for 2009 and on.

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

Two Bridges - I didn't even know it existed until StreetEasy!

As a downtowner, I say we start with the downtown thread and if we need to split later on, then we do so. I was trying to minimize micro threads with my suggestion, but I prefer one thread.

And, West81st, your contributions are always welcome! You don't have to be hip. At heart, I'm just a geek who happens to be completely infatuated with real estate.

OK, enough of the discussion, let's get some comps going!

40 East 9th Street #10LM
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/363160-coop-40-east-9th-street-greenwich-village-new-york?

03/29/2008 Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $2,400,000
08/07/2008 Corcoran listing sold at $2,100,000
11/06/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,995,000
01/14/2009 Price decreased to $1,895,000

The 100K drop today brings it even more below August's clearing price. This apartment is in a not-so-great building (50s whitebox) in a great central location. 9BC closed in September for $2,037,500 (1,072/SF) - however, it had renovated baths and 10LM at $947/SF does not. I believe the seller is anxious to sell (empty apt., put on the mkt 3 months after closing).

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

40-50 East 10th #6E. Just re-listed with Elliman, asking 5% below the 2006 closing price.
............... Recorded Sales ...............|............. Previous Listings ..................
CURRENT ....... #6E .........................| . $1,995,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,410 ft²
12/26/2008 #6E .........................| ↓ $2,395,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,410 ft²
12/21/2006 #6E $2,100,000 +10.8% | . $1,895,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,410 ft²

I think all three listings have been with the same broker team. They moved from Corcoran to Elliman.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

jasonkyle, I hear you, but that's the beauty of Streeteasy. Post where you feel is appropriate or start a thread if you feel there's a need - other posters will decide what works best. Personally, I prefer having a bit of granularity because I'm not one of those people who just relish seeing declines everywhere - I actually want to see what the market's doing in the specific areas I like, so I can stay a little more informed if I decide I want to seriously go after something. If more people see a use out of a whole downtown thread, I have no problem jumping on board!

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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008

jess - the building should be less of a knock in this hood, as there are just not as many buildings with a good amount of space and closets (re: not a brownstone) for adults (re: not the NYU crowd) in this area once you take out all the rentals, new development condos or anything uber-swanky.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

i hear you too bjw2103. and totally see your point as well. i like it this way because i am selfish. we are definitely buying a place this year so i need this thread since i am considering all these areas but nothing above chelsea. hence why i bumped it then (and now).

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

except two bridges of course because it somehow reminds me of that awful spin doctors song

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

if someone doesn't mind the building (i do, unfortunately) i think a bid of 1.4 for 40 east 9th would have a good shot. when i spoke to the broker i definitely heard the telltale sounds of desperation.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

jasonkyle, I think you have to exclude "civic center" as well, unless it has some draw I'm totally unaware of.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

totally. civic center is off the list.

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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008

happyrenter - I agree with you and think that $1.4 would be a really good pick-up if you could get it at that price. That would be $700/SF (if it is indeed 2000') and you are on a pretty high floor with 2 terraces, some western views and a nice location. The maintenance is less than $1.40/sf, which is also pretty good.

My gut tells me they wouldn't go for it, but you seem to think it might fly.

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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008

BTW, what the heck is two bridges?

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

waverly,
i don't know if it would fly. i just don't think it would be out of the question.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

Two bridges is that pretty awful area in the LES between the Manhattan and Brooklyn bridges. Nobody calls it that but Streeteasy seems to like the name.

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

At $1.4, the seller would basically be out $700K from the August closing - ouch! That being said, I think something within the range of 700-800/SF is a fair price for that building and layout, given the current economic situation. waverly - your points noted - i've always like Georgetown Plaza from a location perspective, some of the views are great from the upper floors, but it is smack dab in the middle of nyu territory.

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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008

I lived for 4 years very close to this and my wife and I looked at a bunch of possible places to buy in '06 and early '07 and it was extremly difficult to find something good that was not really, really expensive or fit into the brownstone, NYU-filled or too-small category.

Don't get me wrong, though, the building is so-so looking, but you are more buying the neighborhood here instead of the building.

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Response by waverly
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1638
Member since: Jul 2008

Oh and bjw - thanks for the two bridges info. Yeah, very odd.

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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008

"Two bridges is that pretty awful area in the LES between the Manhattan and Brooklyn bridges. Nobody calls it that but Streeteasy seems to like the name."

How funny, I run there a lot and never knew it was called that. Learn something new! I'll repost my comp from the 9-page original thread.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/230235-coop-170-second-avenue-east-village-new-york
170 2nd Ave:
5/07/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,500,000
06/11/2008
Price decreased to $1,475,000
07/03/2008
Price decreased to $1,450,000
07/10/2008
Price decreased to $1,400,000
09/13/2008
Price decreased to $1,375,000
10/02/2008
Price decreased to $1,350,000
10/13/2008
Price decreased to $1,300,000
11/18/2008
Price decreased to $1,295,000
11/20/2008
Price decreased to $1,200,000
01/02/2009
Price decreased to $1,185,000
01/07/2009
Price decreased to $1,130,000

10D sold for $1,576,000 in 1/08; 9D 06/29/2006, $1,195,000 (which may have been renovated as it has an extra bathroom). Probably needs renovation and will most likely fall further, but it's already priced below the 2006 comp one floor higher.

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Response by NYC10013
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 464
Member since: Jan 2007

166 Duane - one of the best condo buildings in tribeca - Apt 8A:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/314991-condo-166-duane-street-tribeca-new-york

Bought on 4/30/08 for $4.7mm. Sold on 12/23/08 for $4.25mm. 9.6% decline in eight months. Ouch.

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Response by jklfdsainkj
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 178
Member since: Nov 2008

40 E 9th is a location buy. Bldg is nothing special and apt looks like it needs work from the photos (and lack of some photos), but the few blocks around there are one of the best in the city: Wash Park, Union Sq. Walk to Soho, Noho, Evill, Wvill, Union Sq. Gramercy, even a 20 minute stroll to Chinatown or Tribeca. Dozens of top restaurants nearby. Hey, if you can afford 2000 feet at 40 5th, more power to you, but that space should get a hip advertising couple with small kids buyer soon, IMHO. Local schools are tops.

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

Some more candidates today, in Chelsea:

35 West 23rd Street #4
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/300782-condo-35-west-23rd-street-chelsea-new-york

3400 SF for $706 SF

Pros - central location, near subways, Madison Square Park and by inference proximity to Shake Shack, price
Cons - bedroom windows face 23rd street (horrors!), elevated dining/kitchen areas (probably ran pipes thru), large family apt. in more of a commercial area - challenge from a resale perspective

06/16/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $3,600,000
07/02/2008 Price decreased to $3,500,000
09/05/2008 Price decreased to $3,400,000
10/24/2008 Price decreased to $2,995,000
01/15/2009 Price decreased to $2,400,000

3rd floor sold for $2.15M in September 2004.

A 3rd floor competitor a few minutes away:
109 West 26th 3B
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/367249-coop-109-west-26th-street-chelsea-new-york
no comp for this one, but $738/SF (probably NO views at all)

Another loft in the same building, with comps:
109 West 26th 9B $850,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351182-coop-109-west-26th-street-chelsea-new-york

Assuming the 3rd and 8th floors are the same SF (did 3B buy to combine? Talk about 1+1 not equal to 2! happyrenter where are you?), 9B is looking like it's priced at 2004 levels.

Sales:
07/29/2005 #8B $985,000
03/10/2005 #3B $900,000

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Response by tenemental
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007

At 185 West Houston:

Active Listing #3C:
10/21/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $689,000
12/02/2008 Price decreased to $619,000

Recorded Sale #5C:
07/17/2008 $765,000

No listing for 5C to compare condition. Not sure if 5C has building-clearing views that 3C doesn't, but even so, 19% (so far) is a lot to account for.

Considering that the listed 760 sf looks accurate, this is now at $814/sf on the West Village/Soho/Hudson Sq. border. Even with the proximity to the noise of 6th Ave (the upside being fantastic open views from the roofdeck), this is a solid example of price-drops in the 1br market.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/185-west-houston-street-manhattan

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

tenemental, great find. Though I'm not a huge fan of the location, it will definitely appeal to a lot of people.

Here's one in my favorite hood of Nolita:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/14-prince-street-manhattan

2J now asking less than 3J sold for in 2007. Not huge movement yet, but movement nonetheless. This is a fantastic block and right across from the great new 211 Elizabeth.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

bjw,

i love nolita too, but don't you think that apartment is insanely overpriced in this market? it's only asking 25k less than the 3rd floor sold for, and i'd assume that 2nd to 3rd is worth at least that.

it's also interesting that 3 apartments on the 2nd floor are all for sale. cancer cluster?

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Response by evnyc
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/239198-condo-1-irving-place-gramercy-park-new-york

Down 20%+ since May. That outdoor space makes it hard to comp with the previous sales in the building, but #G20EF sold for $2.4 in 2007 without the terrace.

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Response by Jerkstore
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 474
Member since: Feb 2007

"PRICE IMPROVEMENT!" on West Houston. LMMFAO.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

ev, it looks to me like that apartment sans terrace would have traded at or around $2 million at the peak. hard to value the terrace.

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

evnyc - I would say that there is a limited market of people who would want and pay for that much outdoor space. I can't believe G20EF sold for that much!

Also, you really don't have a lot of privacy given the surrounding tall buildings. If I were in the market for that much outdoor space, I'd want some privacy. I think there will probably be some more price drops.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

happyrenter, I do think it's overpriced, but I wouldn't say "insanely" so. I've always kept an eye on the neighborhood (and rented there for a while), and the problem has always been lack of inventory. Very few available apartments, and even fewer quality ones. A somewhat small but really nice 2BR came up in late '07 at 214 Mulberry, which I LOVED, but it went way over ask. 14 Prince is an ok building, but not great - the turnover there now isn't all that unusual, though it is interesting it's all on the 2nd floor. I know it's trendy to say everything is going to get hit hard these days, but I feel Nolita will hold up the best because of the inventory issue. But it'll be interesting to keep an eye on these units.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

that's very true, bjw. great neighborhood but mediocre apartment inventory. so if someone really needs to be in nolita....maybe you're right.

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Response by justobserving
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9
Member since: Jan 2009

this was in contract click the link to Halstead and it is now reduced by $1,500,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/147767-condo-304-spring-street-soho-new-york

still completely overpriced before

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

I don't have a good comp for this one, but I'll post it anyway because:
A) It looks like a great apartment;
B) The drop from the initial ask is quite dramatic (for what it's worth);
C) I'm a John Leguizamo fan.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/173216-coop-45-gramercy-park-north-gramercy-park-new-york
StreetEasy History
01/25/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $5,850,000
04/02/2008 Price decreased to $5,300,000
08/04/2008 Price decreased to $4,900,000
09/18/2008 Price decreased to $4,400,000
09/23/2008 Price decreased to $4,000,000
11/20/2008 Sotheby's listing entered contract
01/09/2009 Sale closed for $3,650,000

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Response by jess
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 142
Member since: Jan 2006

justobserving - that is gorgeous apartment, I remember when it first came on the market. Now, THAT Is outdoor space worth paying for! I agree that it is still overpriced, though.

West81st, would never have figured him to live there. The new owners seem more suited to the place.

* Samuel G. White is a principal in the firm of Platt Byard Dovell White and a great grandson of Stanford White, a founding member of the legendary firm McKim, Mead & White. He lives in New York.

* Elizabeth White, formerly director of publications at Sotheby's and associate publisher of Rizzoli, is a writer and editor based in New York.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

kind of hard to call 304 spring completely overpriced at 6.7--i mean, maybe it is overpriced, maybe it isnt, but it is a pretty spectacular one-of-a-kind apartment. full floor units in that building have sold for as much as $3.2--lower floor. this apartment has 1.5X times the interior space, higher up, plus some of the most magnificent outdoor space i've seen in a long time.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

john leguizamo has great taste--i've been lusting after that apartment for a while :). that's a fabulous apartment for sure.

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Response by justobserving
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9
Member since: Jan 2009

on the corner will be the a new sanitation building that will take over the views

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

i don't think it will be tall enough to really take over the views of that penthouse

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

here's some nice movement in the mid/low end in an utterly perfect location. 2005 pricing on a nice, small one bedroom on bank street:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320431-coop-100-bank-street-west-village-new-york

100 Bank Street 3C
STREETEASY HISTORY
07/22/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $799,000
10/03/2008
Price decreased to $765,000
11/13/2008
Price decreased to $730,000
01/15/2009
Price decreased to $680,000

Recorded Sales
09/09/2005 #2C $650,000

the 30k difference would be reasonable to move from the 2nd to the 3rd floor, so seems to be solid 05 pricing. this is somewhat significant to me since the prime west village had an enormous run-up in recent years, probably as much as any neighborhood in the city.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

Prime Soho coop, closed just after Thanksgiving (that week or so was possibly as rough a stretch as we've had so far), still at a pretty high level:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/652-broadway-new_york

7R sold at $1.86m. 11R (presumably same layout) went for $1.23m in 2007. This isn't the one front_porch sold is it?

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

anyone want to live on gram. park south?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/32-gramercy-park-south-manhattan

32 Gramercy Park South 5A

STREETEASY HISTORY
11/05/2004
Previous sale closed for $823,250
10/25/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,195,000
12/04/2008
Price decreased to $1,050,000
12/16/2008
Price decreased to $985,000
01/21/2009
Price decreased to $950,000

The apartment has been renovated in the intervening years (although not very attractively). Look at the comps:

Recorded Sales:
09/04/2008 #8A $1,199,000
06/12/2008 #2A $1,117,500 +2.0%
09/28/2007 #15A $1,605,000 +0.6%
09/09/2005 #8A $950,000
11/05/2004 #5A $823,250 -
10/26/2004 #3A $950,000

This is a 2004 price. Why do I say that? 5A was renovated in the intervening years, so the more relevant comp is 3A.

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Response by tenemental
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007

At 175 West 13th Street...

Recorded Sales:
01/08/2009 #6E $550,000
05/14/2007 #4E $625,000

6E went for 12% less than 4E, even though 6E's listing claims open views, which 4E doesn't have. Can't comment on condition, though, as there's no listing for 4E.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

31 West 12th Street (Ardea) #11AE
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=1069907
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/31-west-12-street-manhattan

--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
CURRENT ...... #11AE .......................|↓ $2,550,000 4 beds 2.5 Baths 1,900 ft²
CURRENT ......... #2E ........................|↓ $2,750,000 3 beds 2 Baths
09/08/2008 ... #6E $2,575,000 -8.0% .|↓ $2,799,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,700 ft²
10/06/2005 ... #2E $2,395,000 .........|

The reduction on #11AE from $2.999MM to $2.55MM, after just two weeks on the market, would be remarkable enough if it were an ordinary "E" line apartment in shabby condition. In fact, it's an expanded unit, quite nicely renovated. Clearly the owners are looking for a quick exit, for whatever reason.

Paging Happyrenter...

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

Yeah, unfortunately I saw it and it's sort of a dump. It's not just the finishes, which appear to be late 70s and need serious updating. Those can be replaced and priced in. It's just that it's not a particularly nice space. There are stairs everywhere--from the living room into the master bedroom, from the foyer into the living room, from the foyer to the back bedrooms, etc. The broker, who is a woman of a certain age, was huffing and puffing her way around the apartment. And the placement of the windows in the living room is unfortunate. This is some sort of penthouse add-on I believe, and the windows are set extremely high in the wall to clear the parapet. So while the view is absolutely gorgeous, it's very hard to see it. I'm quite tall, and even I had trouble taking advantage of the view. A short person would see nothing but wall.

6E was an absolutely beautiful apartment. The layouts in the building are kind of odd, and the apartment was expensive, but it was renovated to perfection, and nice views and light, and was just an altogether nicer apartment than this one. It's unfortunate because I had high, high hopes for it, but it just doesn't really work.

I think they were way over ambitious with that initial price, and I'd be quite surprised if this trades over $2 million even with the spectacular location.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

OK, forget that one. #2E can't be happy about the competition, though.

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Response by EEEE1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Dec 2006

Apartment 7C at Ariel West (245 W. 99th) just sold for $1.2 mm, compared to $1.558mm exactly one year ago. Price cut of about 25%.

Will it get worse than this?

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

yes, i was about to add that whoever is trying to get 2.75 for 2E is out of his mind.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

EEE, you might want to post that in the UWS comps thread, instead of this downtown one. but in answer to your question, it could get a lot worse than this. will it? i don't know. but could it? sure. i feel badly for those sellers, it stinks to lose that kind of money after just one year. but they may turn out to be lucky to have gotten out now.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

Here's some serious movement on Lower 5th Avenue

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/358645-coop-51-fifth-avenue-greenwich-village-new-york
51 5th Avenue 12B:
10/17/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $2,795,000
01/24/2009
Price decreased to $2,395,000

Recorded Sales:
07/16/2008 #16B $2,350,000 -5.8%

This may not look like much, but 12B is a combination of two apartments. Whereas 16B is a 4 room apartment, 12B is basically a classic six (it has an additional dining room and maids room). The views from the two apartments are very similar: open and beautiful to the west, closed in to the north. The conditions appear similar. Normally, I would expect 12B to fetch at least 25% more than 16B--if not more, there are just so few apartments this size on lower 5th avenue that there has usually been a very significant premium for size. To give a sense, 15AB at 33 5th sold for $3.65 in the spring. It was only slightly larger than 12B at 51 5th and had similar views. Plus it was in far worse condition and needed a major remodel.

The central village appears to be in for a major price realignment. For instance, 11C at 51 5th Avenue , which is much smaller than 12B and lacks open western views is now asking 300k MORE than 12B
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/354720-coop-51-fifth-avenue-greenwich-village-new-york

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

PS I considered 51 5th and decided against it for various reasons. Otherwise I wouldn't be posting about it.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

There's a lot of movement happening in the central village--it seems to be accelerating in the last couple of weeks. This one is too small for me, but should be a very cool apartment:

50 West 9th 5A
STREETEASY HISTORY
12/09/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,275,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/370007-coop-50-west-9th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

Just reduced to 1.175 on the Halstead website.

Recorded Sales:
07/10/2008 #2A $1,850,000 +15.6%

This is 36% off the peak comp in the line, and it is three floors higher with an empire state view. 2A appears to have been in more pristine condition, but I don't think condition is a major issue with the is apartment.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

The decline hasn't even begun yet.

We're looking at 2002 prices now, I think, given the state of the financial and media sectors, Manhattan's biggest.

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Response by JohnDoe
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 449
Member since: Apr 2007

It's amazing 16B at 51 fifth ever went for so much. My sense of 12B was that it actually needed a fair bit of work and that at 2.4 it was probably still overpriced. I don't think it sells for more than 2.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

JohnDoe,
I don't think it sells for more than 2 either. Needs work in this case is a bit relative. It 'needs' only a little bit of work. Depending on the kind of finishes you like, it could use a lot more. But it's not like the big apartment for sale at 30 5th, which is a dump.

Steve,
Some of these apartments are already at 2004 levels, so it's a bit over the top to say that the decline "hasn't even begun." 40% declines, like the one at 50 West 9th, certainly count as already begun in my book.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

There's no way that 50 W. 9th 5A sold for $1.275 million in 2004.

Half that, at best.

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Response by JohnDoe
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 449
Member since: Apr 2007

happyrenter, i definitely agree that needs work is relative. It's hard to imagine someone dropping close to 2M on the place and being satisfied with the kitchen or without stripping the walls, for starters.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

steve,

i think you make a lot of good points but it is posts like that that get people irritated with you. you think that 50 west 9th 5A would have sold for 640 k "at best" in 2004? what city were you living in in 2004? maybe in 2000 it would have sold for that price, but I doubt it. For 2004, though, there is actual data--no need to speculate blindly. There were three sales in the Portsmouth in 2004:

12/28/2004 #6D $995,000 -
08/24/2004 #11 $1,700,000 -
05/18/2004 #19 $1,200,000

6D is a one bedroom, so it is safe to say that 5A is a more valuable apartment. not one apartment has sold in the Portsmouth for under 900k in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, or 2008, and aside from ground floor units, the only two bedroom to sell for under 1.7 was number 19, which sold for 1.2 in....2004. what possible justification is there or saying that 5A would have gotten 640k at best in 2004?

why not look at the actual data before making definitive statements about past prices? it would make your posts a lot smarter.

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Response by tenemental
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007

Pre-foreclosure and undercutting in FiDi.

Downtown Club at 20 West Street #17H:

StreetEasy History
08/29/2007 Previously listed in StreetEasy by City Connections Realty for $699,000
08/26/2008 City Connections Realty listing unavailable at $675,000
01/29/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by City Connections Realty at $499,000

The listing begins: AMAZING FORECLOSURE OPPORTUNITY! Client must sell or bank will foreclose! Property is being sold for 160K less than what it was paid for!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377773-condo-20-west-st-financial-district-new-york

Recorded Sale
05/14/2007 #17H $660,000

Active Listings
#17H $499,000
#12H $670,000

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Response by tenemental
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007

Early-06 asking prices on the Gold Coast at 30 Fifth Avenue:

#5C

01/19/2006 Previous sale closed for $695,000
09/27/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $875,000
10/25/2008 Price decreased to $825,000
11/07/2008 Price decreased to $795,000
11/26/2008 Price decreased to $775,000
01/29/2009 Price decreased to $699,000

#10H asking 10% more than it sold for in early 05:

Active Listing $749,000
Recorded Sale 03/23/2005 $685,000

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

tenemental,
there's clearly been a lot of work done on 10H--do you know if it was done before or after the 05 sale? by the way, i think 5C still has a ways to fall, it's quite small, awkward layout, and no light. 10H is a much better apartment IMHO.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

movement at 111 4th avenue:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/111-4-avenue-manhattan

Recorded Sales
01/23/2009 #6I $955,000 -4.2%
07/12/2006 #3I $975,000

actually, this movement is much more than meets the eye. the 6th floor apartment has lovely open views while the 3rd floor is closed in. moreover, noise is a significant issue in this building so the 6th floor is more coveted for that reason. finally, the 6th floor apartment mentions renovated kitchen and bath, while the 3rd floor does not and shows no kitchen or bath pictures in the listing so i assume the condition was less than mint. excluding condition issues which we don't know for sure, i'd say that between the views and the noise the added elevation would be worth at the very least 50k for an apartment this size.

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Response by mrsbuffet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 134
Member since: Nov 2006

There are a few listings in this building that are now asking below what they paid. I've never been inside this building, does anybody have any opinions about it?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351595-condop-4-west-21st-street-chelsea-new-york

10/24/2006 Previous sale closed for $1,885,000
09/25/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Prime Manhattan at $1,992,150
09/30/2008 Price decreased to $1,975,000
10/03/2008 Price decreased to $1,750,000
10/30/2008 Price decreased to $1,600,000
12/16/2008 Price decreased to $1,575,000

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

i saw a place in 21 west 61st. its over priced for what it is but it isn't terrible.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

wow i must have morning dyslexia. i meant i saw a place at 4 west 21st. the same unit 2 floors up which did eventually sell. it didn't get a lot of light the day i went. there's a parking lot across the street that i am sure will someday be a building and then you will get no light.

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Response by mrsbuffet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 134
Member since: Nov 2006

Do you know if the building has any particularly special amenities or finishes? I guess these apartments were priced at the peak of the bubble, but I still don't understand why they were trading above average for Chelsea even at the time. New construction mania?

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

Not sure if this apartment got posted, but just a reminder of the sort of prices it takes to get deals done these days:

12 East 12th Street 5SE

StreetEasy History
11/20/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,595,000
01/06/2009 Corcoran listing entered contract

Recorded Sales:
01/18/2007 #5SE $1,910,000

Even if they got their asking price (which I am guessing they did not) we are looking at a 17% decline. Still, I'd say smart sellers: they got out of the thing down a few hundred thousand, but they got out.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

to mrsbuffet. i think you nailed it on your head when you said new construction mania prices. the apt was nice but nothing about it blew me away. i don't remember the finishes or the appliances being amazing but they were definitely nice. the problem was the layout (an extra bathroom you don't need) and the lack of views/light.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

I saw an apartment in that building as well, possibly the one jasonkyle saw (huge blue couch?). Agreed, it was nice but not amazing, decent size but still each room seemed kind of small (lots of bathroom space, as noted), and I noticed the parking lot as well. I think it was new construction mania, they were available for closing quite a bit earlier than some of the other developments, and the Flatiron location is considered prime by some.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

yeah i think it was that one. big couch and couple of huge TVs that the seller was going to leave in the apartment. the rooms were small compared to the rest of the apartment. it was an odd usage of space.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

what is the deal with all those huge bathrooms and the enormous walk-in closet? if the kitchen were pushed back an addition five-ten feet from the front windows you'd have a reasonably spacious living-dining area. as it is half the apartment is taken up with bathrooms hallway and closets. 3 big full baths in a medium-sized two bedroom is crazy.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

This is what I call movement:

50 West 9th Street 5A
StreetEasy History
12/09/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,275,000
02/03/2009 Price decreased to $1,175,000

Recorded Sale
07/10/2008 #2A $1,850,000 +15.6% $1,600,000 Sold 2 beds 1 bath

In May, the exact same apartment three floors down (and without open views) lasted a grand total of 18 days on the market and sold for 15% above its asking price. Now this apartment is asking 36% less than the 2nd floor unit and can't sell in a great building on one of the best streets in the city.

given the differential in floors this is a 40% decline at least. there are a lot of central village one bedrooms that better watch out.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

The bottom just fell out of this one:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/362005-coop-161-west-16th-street-chelsea-new-york

161 West 16th Street 15H

StreetEasy History
11/04/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $895,000
11/14/2008 Price decreased to $795,000
01/13/2009 Price decreased to $789,000
02/03/2009 Price decreased to $695,000

Recorded Sales
08/29/2005 #10H $785,000

Nice building, nice layout, great location, good condition, beautiful open views, now asking 11.5% below a 2005 comp--not to mention that apartment is 5 floors down and probably lacks the view of the river. This may be 2003 pricing--at the very best it is 2004. It is also notable that they only waited 3 weeks since their last cut (albeit a tiny one) to cut it an additional 12%.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

happyrenter, great find. That's a pretty great location, with great transportation access. Should also note that 7H sold at pretty much exactly the same time as 10H for $700,000.

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

And 14H is in contract - will be interesting to see the closing price on that.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

there is something fishy about that 14H contract i think. why would someone by a badly conditioned sponsor unit when a beautiful apartment one flight up is for sale for a lot less? seems strange to me unless it went for way, way under the asking price.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

wow. "by" should read "buy"

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Response by bjw2103
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007

happyrenter,

That was my thinking - it probably went well under ask, though crazier things have happened. We'll see if/when it closes.

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Response by jimstreeteasy
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1967
Member since: Oct 2008

Nice find. Finally --- this is a step in right direction.But...makes me think we buyers in waiting should wait, because a time should come when this is "typical", not a "find".

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

Here's a few more goodies for you--in the same building, no less. Nice location right between Union Square, Park Ave South, and Flatiron:

42 East 20th 5C:
STREETEASY HISTORY
04/11/2008
Previously listed in StreetEasy by Elliman for $2,395,000
09/22/2008
Previously listed in StreetEasy by Elliman for $1,995,000
11/17/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Mercedes Berk at $1,850,000
11/20/2008
Elliman listing temporarily off-market at $1,995,000
01/09/2009
Price decreased to $1,665,000
02/05/2009
Price decreased to $1,595,000

That's a chop of 33%. But so what--that's just from the asking price. Here's the comp:
04/27/2005 #6C $1,690,000

now priced 7% below the 2005 comp. and let's remember: the neighborhood around madison square park has been red-hot; i'd say this area has appreciated as much as any in the city in the last few years.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

meanwhile in the same building on the same floor:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/369546-condo-42-east-20th-street-flatiron-new-york

5A
STREETEASY HISTORY
06/16/2008
Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $3,395,000
12/04/2008
Corcoran listing unavailable at $3,395,000
12/05/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $3,095,000
01/21/2009
Price decreased to $2,950,000
02/05/2009
Price decreased to $2,799,000

And the comp:
09/16/2008 #3A $3,025,000 -8.3%

the other A line apartments listed as sold are significantly smaller so are not valid comps

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Response by spqsydney
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 80
Member since: Dec 2008

I went to an open house at 42 East 20th. It is in great condition and all of the fixtures are completely top end. The location above Grammercy Taven is fantastic. The problem (and you can tell this from the photos) is the light. It is a very dark space, but if you can live with that drawback it was a nice property.

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

oh and i think the steelworks lofts kind of already imploded. most of the new williamsburg developments are in danger of following suit

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Response by jasonkyle
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 891
Member since: Sep 2008

whoops wrong thread. too many windows open at once. i meant to say i wouldn't ant to live above the gramercy tavern and that apartment is way dark

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Response by iamlooking
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 140
Member since: Nov 2008

what is wrong with living above gramercy tavern. pests? cockroaches?
This is quite a movement though in price for a great location.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

aren't you all missing the point of a comps thread? if you don't want to live there that's fine, but someone did want to live in 6C enough to pay 7% in 2005 more than 5C is currently asking. it's a comp.

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Response by tenemental
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007

At 221 West 20th Street, 3W closed in December for 5% less than it sold for in mid-05:

Recorded Sales
12/10/2008 #3W $615,000
06/30/2005 #3W $650,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/221-west-20-street-manhattan

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