The death of the high end market
Started by happyrenter
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008
Discussion about
This unit just came back on the market--for half what it was asking in 2006. This isn't a comp. Since it is a full floor penthouse surrounded by terraces it is just not possible to comp it. But I think we all intuitively know that a full floor penthouse with 4500 square feet interior and over 2000 square feet exterior in a prewar building on prime park avenue was not to be had for under $10... [more]
This unit just came back on the market--for half what it was asking in 2006. This isn't a comp. Since it is a full floor penthouse surrounded by terraces it is just not possible to comp it. But I think we all intuitively know that a full floor penthouse with 4500 square feet interior and over 2000 square feet exterior in a prewar building on prime park avenue was not to be had for under $10 million until, perhaps, yesterday. even if it does need a gut remodel. http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/49137-coop-630-park-avenue-lenox-hill-new-york 630 Park Avenue PH STREETEASY HISTORY 09/28/2006 Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $17,000,000 11/01/2006 Price decreased to $15,000,000 01/24/2007 Price decreased to $12,500,000 01/13/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg for $8,500,000 The listing is a mess--the maintenace seems to have changed, no pictures (always a bad sign), and not enough information. I realize that. But this is less than you pay for a low floor 1900 square foot 2 bedroom in the plaza. Just remarkable to me how quickly the high end of the market is collapsing. [less]
While I agree that the high end market is in trouble and has little, if any activity, this listing is not in any way reflective of the high end market. A statement about the trouble of the high end market is on more solid ground than backing it up with this "example."
If this apartment could not sell at the peak of the market even with subustantial prices cuts - a 12% price reduction at the peak of the market - then it has no chance of selling now.
Kind of true statement, bad example.
oldbuyers, didn't you just prove the exact point i was trying to make: "if this apartment could not sell at the peak of the market even with substantial price cuts - a 12% reduction at the peak of the market - then it ha no chance of selling now." that's the point! it comes back on the market with a 30% cut and still won't sell?
that's what i call a dead market.
Um, earth to happyrenter, that was not a good example to make a point.
If you would have chosen a high end property that sold high in 06 or 07, say $20MM and now is relisted at say $15MM, that would demonstrate a collapse of the high end market.
But to show a dog apartment that could not even sell at the peak when anything would sell is not reflective of the statement that the high end has collapsed.
What you demonstrated was that 630 Park Avenue PH is a real dump and will not apparently sell at any price, especially when there's no pictures to even show what it looks like.
oldbuyers,
why don't you actually READ MY POST before criticizing points i never made. i specifically said it wasn't a comp. i specifically said that the listing is funky. i specifically said that the reason i was posting was because of my intuition, which i imagine is shared by anyone who was seriously followed this market, that the price is entering a different world. if you think i was claiming this as a comp, then you simply did not read my post.
i also totally disagree that this demonstrates the apartment 'will not sell at any price.' we certainly have no reason to believe that. could be true, could be false, but no evidence of it. as 12% cut at the peak is not exactly the same as a 30% cut in a bear market.
Also, did you notice how much the maintenance went up from the original list?
actually, yes, i did, which is why i mentioned it in my post. grrrr.
happyrenter, there is no point in trying to save your post. It is a dumb example and you should have thought of the criticism before you chose such a dumb example. And by you insisting on defending it, you have become as dumb as your example.
I read your post...so you should have never posted it. By heading your post "death of the high end market" and then having your little analysis at the end trying to compare it to the Plaza, then stating that it is surprising how quickly the high end market has collapsed, you are indeed, trying to make this one dumpy apartment reflective of the entire high end market.
No, I am not a broker. No, I cannot afford this apartment, even at 8.5, and really have little vested interest in the high end market at all. What I am calling out are posters, who post rhetoric and gossip. You posted something that you thought closely resembled your opinion and tried to pass it off as an example of your opinion. You got called out on it, so deal with it.
Your post is completely irrelevant to the high end market, or any market trends in general. If you were so desperate to show this apartment, you should have entitled the thread "630 Park Ave PH a real dump at any price"...not reflective of the high end market.
BTW, you said it was not a comp b/c it had a full floor penthouse and a 2000 square foot terrace, and would be difficult to comp. Meanwhile, this city is full of full floor PH with outdoor space. You did not say the apartment was not reflective of the market condition because the apartment is a total disaster. Even when you try to defend yourself, you fail. Your mother must be completely disapopinted.
Now I am beginning to see why you are a renter. You're obviously not intelligent enough to support the responsibility of a mortgage.
oh no . . . you dit-int. i know u dit-int just say that to him. it's on now. oh, it's on
lol
oldbuyer,
you are a fool and a boor. you argued against points i never made, you acknowledged that it helps demonstrate exactly what i say it helps demonstrate :"If this apartment could not sell at the peak of the market even with subustantial prices cuts - a 12% price reduction at the peak of the market - then it has no chance of selling now" (notice the use of the word 'now'). You refuse to acknowledge that you started posting arguments against statements that exist only in your own head, and then you insult me personally. you are an old guy who can't afford this apartment, so why do you even care? given that i am a self-made 27 year old who can afford apartments in this price range (i will not choose to spend this much money on an apartment, but i could), who graduated summa cum laude from one of the top universities in the world, and who still manages to call to check up on my widowed mother every morning, i think she's far from disappointed.
if you didn't like the post, you had two reasonable choices: ignore it, or make arguments refuting it. refuting a post and then whining and bitching like a little girl, on the other hand, is not reasonable.
sorry happyrenter, glossed over that comment.
happyrenter, wasn't your largest source of wealth winning a game show?
happyrenter, you are truly pathetic. I do not care about you or your pathetic achievements or lack of achievements.
You still haven't even admitted it, that your post has nothing to do with anything other than that it is a dump. It couldn't sell at the peak even with price reductions, and it certinally will not sell when the market is weak. Point is...? Nothing to do with anything you said.
From which school did you graduate summa cum laude? One of the top universities in where, the arab world? The Unviersity of Beiruit at Lebanon? Wow! Talk about a resume stopper!
I see you have problems admitting when you're wrong. Time to take your meds. Why don't you re-read my comments, compare them to your original post, then realize just how wrong you are.
Notice, to one single person has stood behind your post. Because, as aggressive and vulgar as I am, I am 100% correct. Why don't you, in the future, not start discussions, but rather contribute to them. Your naturally more of a follower than a leader.
every time someone says they graduated from a top university i want to remind then that george bush went to yale and harvard. that said keep fighting gentleman it's fun to read.
Since it is a full floor penthouse surrounded by terraces it is just not possible to comp it. But I think we all intuitively know that a full floor penthouse with 4500 square feet interior and over 2000 square feet exterior in a prewar building on prime park avenue was not to be had for under $10 million until, perhaps, yesterday. even if it does need a gut remodel.
YOUR WORDS, VERBATIM.
You are attempting to reflect that THIS apartment is reflective of the high end market. The only thing you proved was that THIS PARTICULAR apartment was such a mess, it couldn't even sell when anything would sell. You are truly clueless!
Get a clue, brainiac. Not everything can be learned from a textbook.
but then again, your stability is obviously questionable.
You stated, in an earlier post: that apartment is in fine shape. the only thing that really needs to be redone is the little laundry room.
(in regards to 755 West End Avenue)
So, you think original parquet flooring in the LR, unfinished plaster walls, cheap Pine cabinets, circa 1995 Granite countertops, and PC Richards GE stove is considered FINE CONDITION? I see your intelligence is about equal to your level of taste, esp. for someone who ALLEGEDLY can afford a $10MM apartment. I have a great bridge to sell you, genius!
hey a f'n piss fight that doesn't involve Moi' (that's french for me oldbuyer)... ahhhhh.. just sitting, reading and enjoying.... upper cuts all the way happrenter.. .and when he stoops down to get his walking cane... give him a vicious knee... that outta stop the pacemaker..... it'll give his wife a chance to run! :) No seriously, I don't want to get involved... unless you want me to HR... just tag me in anytime... :)
w67thstreet, isn't it time for you to pick the kids up from soccer practice?
Have you collected your ballz from your wife's purse yet?
Is the laundry folded? Your wife's work shirt ironed?
you're only half a man.
oh dear . . .
Seriously, oldbuyer... did you get a cookie?
ok children, it's time for a TIME OUT. Everyone go to your room for 30 minutes to cool off.
Ahhhh man... it was just getting fun :LMAO...
No they didn't delete that !
oldbuyer, what can i say? i hope you have been enjoying your long, heated debate with yourself. no point in even reading, let alone responding to, your overwrought, under-cogitated blather. i engaged with you, you proved to be a psycho, end of engagement. this is what the trusty ignore function is for.
tech_guy,
i won a lot of money on a game show years ago, yes, but while at the time it was the vast, vast majority of the money i had made, fortunately at this point it is sort of a footnote. but it makes good cocktail party conversation :).
oldbuy,
Chill out or you'll burst your truss. Quit flailing your cane at HappyR.
We old folks don't like it when kids throw the word "death" around like it's no big deal.
$10K a month in maintenance? Ouch.
wow, oldbuyers really is raging like a froth-mouthed lunatic.
If this is how oldbuyers gets when the market's down 15-20%, imagine how's he gonna handle it when it hits 30%... 40%? Kind of looking forward to it in a "glad he's not my child" sort of way. Just keep the sharp toys away from that boy.
Can his incisors be removed?
foxy: If you buy it for $1 maybe 10k/month might seem ok?